AL East Grades: Nestor Cortes Leads Yankees to the Top

Nearly two months into the MLB season is a reasonable time to take stock of what has happened thus far and deliver some report cards. 

It is important to note that expectations play a part in whether a season can be deemed to be successful or not. A player who has modest expectations of turning into an All-Star is better than an MVP candidate plugging along at a little better than an average clip. 

In any case, we will go division by division, and we will start with grading the American League East. 

Here are the latest AL East odds from DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars. 

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TNpgB/1/

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR here. 

Here are notable grades from the American League East. 

A+ 

Nester Cortes 

Cortes was effective in 14 starts for the Yankees last season after starting the year in the bullpen, but that sample was too small to put huge expectations on him coming into 2022. 

Through nine starts this season, he has a 1.70 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 2.55 FIP, and 10.4 K/9. He is throwing like a legitimate staff ace and is forcing his way into the American League Cy Young discussion, priced at +1000 on DraftKings and +1100 at FanDuel. 

Given his lack of experience as a starting pitcher, though, Cortes is likely to have his workload monitored as the season progresses. 

https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1517926181357506560?s=20&t=jmBWAA8yOG1A342hJS6r_g

A 

New York Yankees 

I was skeptical of the Yankees’ chances this season, and by the time the first pitch was thrown, the Toronto Blue Jays had emerged ahead of the Yankees as favorites in the American League East. 

With a 33-15 record, the Yankees have the second-best record in baseball, a half-game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Yankees’ run differential of +71 also ranks second behind the Dodgers. 

Shane McClanahan 

The way that the Tampa Bay Rays use their pitchers, it is not easy to put a ton of value on an unproven starting pitcher, but McClanahan did show promise as a rookie last season, starting 25 games and delivering a 3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.31 FIP, and 10.3 K/9. 

This season, the southpaw has taken it to a new level with a 2.01 ERA, and 0.91 WHIP, with a 2.59 FIP and 12.5 K/9 in 10 starts this season. He has the fourth shortest odds for American League MVP, priced at +750 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.  

Kevin Gausman 

When the Toronto Blue Jays lost 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to Seattle in free agency, there was naturally some concern about who would fill the role of staff ace. 

No worries for the Blue Jays, as Gausman was coming off a great season in San Francisco and has been dominant for Toronto, with a 2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 1.32 FIP, and 10.4 K/9. 

His 2.7 FanGraphs WAR is easily tops among pitchers in MLB. He has the second shortest AL Cy Young odds, priced at +600 on DraftKings and +650 on FanDuel.  

Aaron Judge 

The 6-foot-8 outfielder has always been a dangerous hitter, but the biggest challenge for much of his major league career has been staying healthy enough to show his tremendous power. 

He did last season when he slugged 39 home runs, but that pales compared to his start in 2022, as Judge leads MLB with 18 home runs in 46 games.

His .669 slugging percentage is a career-high, and with the Yankees jumping out to a quick start, Judge has the second shortest odds for AL MVP, priced at +330 on DraftKings and +350 on FanDuel. 

Rafael Devers 

Boston’s third baseman hit a career-high 38 home runs last season, and the 25-year-old brought in a blockbuster AL MVP wager early this season. 

https://twitter.com/BetMGM/status/1513519137003347978?s=20&t=sZPVGYn1MVAVX-_BpKhwxg

While Devers has 11 home runs this season, he leads the American League with 19 doubles and 38 runs scored, posting a slash line of .345/.376/.611, and his 2.9 fWAR ranks second in the American League. 

Given that level of production, Devers offers some decent AL MVP value right now, priced at +2000 on DraftKings and +2500 on FanDuel. 

B+  

Tampa Bay Rays 

The Rays defy expectations every season, and this should be no different. Their preseason total was 89.5 wins, and, with a 28-19 record, they are on pace to cruise to the over. They have done this despite a modest +14 run differential. 

Gerrit Cole 

It is difficult for the Yankees ace to exceed expectations, as he has finished in the Top 5 of Cy Young voting five times in his career. 

However, he has yet to win, and he continues to provide solid results for the Yankees. In 10 starts this season, Cole has a 3.12 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.82 FIP, and 11.2 K/9. 

He has the third shortest odds for AL MVP, priced at +700 at both DraftKings and FanDuel.  

Alek Manoah 

The 2019 first-round pick was impressive in 20 starts for the Blue Jays last season and had some sleeper Cy Young value coming into 2022.

In nine starts, Manoah has a 1.77 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 3.14 FIP, and 8.4 K/9.

That strikeout rate is a little low relative to the other Cy Young contenders, but Manoah is giving himself a chance. He is priced +950 on DraftKings and +1100 on FanDuel. 

B 

Toronto Blue Jays 

This might be a touch optimistic, given the expectations for the Blue Jays coming into the season. They were favored to win the AL East and had the second shortest World Series odds behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

They are 27-20 and have been outscored by one run, which is a significant underachievement, but there is still time for the Blue Jays to pull this together. The record allows for a more forgiving grade because their overall performance has been perplexing. 

B- 

Trevor Story 

Boston’s big-ticket free-agent signing, Story, got off to a horrendous start. 

In his first 30 games for the Red Sox, he slashed .200/.282/.313, but then he turned the corner, and in 18 games since, he has mashed seven home runs and 21 RBI with a slash line of .277/.375/.766. 

That trend is moving in the right direction, thus the slightly optimistic grade. He remains a longshot for AL MVP, priced at +10000 on DraftKings and +13000 on FanDuel. 

C+ 

Wander Franco 

The top prospect in baseball when the Rays called him up last season, the 21-year-old shortstop was something of a sleeper candidate for AL MVP this season.

On May 9, Franco had a slash line of .331/.355/.525, which is not quite in MVP territory, but a good enough start to remain in the hunt. Since then, the wheels have fallen off, and Franco has an incredible slash line of .107/.164/.179 in 16 games since, dropping his season numbers to .259/.292/.414, with four home runs and four stolen bases. 

Franco is priced at +3500 on DraftKings and +5000 on FanDuel for AL MVP, but he will have to snap out of his slump in a hurry if he is going to climb back into that race. 

Boston Red Sox 

Although the Red Sox were not favorites in the American League East coming into the season, there is still a sense of disappointment in a team that is 23-25, a couple of games below .500. 

There has been progress, as the Red Sox are 13-6 in their past 19 games after opening the season with a 10-19 record. 

C

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

Coming off a 48-home-run season, Guerrero Jr. had the second shortest AL MVP odds behind only Shohei Ohtani, but the production has not been there for the Blue Jays' first baseman. 

It is not a disastrous season, but it is nowhere near his potential, as Vladdy has nine home runs and a slash line of .256/.351/.451, with his AL MVP odds dropping to +1600 on DraftKings and +2000 on FanDuel.

https://twitter.com/TheAthletic/status/1514393844573515776?s=20&t=jmBWAA8yOG1A342hJS6r_g

Ryan Mountcastle 

It is difficult for the Baltimore Orioles to have any disappointment because expectations are so low. Still, there should have been some hype surrounding Mountcastle, who hit 33 home runs last season. This year, he has five home runs and a pedestrian slash line of .250/.282/.372, and that continues the cycle of disappointment for Baltimore. 

Alex Verdugo 

Following a couple of decent seasons for the Red Sox, Verdugo has staggered out of the gate this season, with three home runs and a slash line of .232/.269/.345, which leaves Verdugo with a negative fWAR. 

Baltimore Orioles 

The Orioles are on pace to win 66 games, which would be their most in a season since 2017, so they have fared okay relative to the meager expectations placed upon them, but it is such a long climb from where they are to competing with the other four teams in the AL East. 

C-

Nathan Eovaldi 

Was it wrong to place expectations on Eovaldi coming into the 2022 season? He literally led American League pitchers with 5.6 fWAR last season, so it would seem reasonable to expect ace-quality performance. 

While Eovaldi had a 3.75 ERA last season and a 3.77 ERA this season, the path to those numbers is entirely different. The 32-year-old has allowed 16 home runs this season, more than he allowed in an entire 2021 season, and his FIP went from 2.79 last season to 5.23 this season. 

He is now a longshot for the AL Cy Young, priced at +10000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. 

D

Joey Gallo 

Throughout his career, Gallo has established that he is an all-or-nothing power hitter, and he has landed on nothing more often this season. 

He has just five home runs and a slash line of .167/.270/.300, which is abysmal. More incredible is that Gallo has driven in just seven runs in 40 games.  

Incomplete 

Adley Rutschman 

The first overall pick in the 2019 Draft, Rutschman has been hyped as an elite prospect and had a .309/.427/.515 slash line in 19 games across three levels of the minors early this season before getting his call to The Show. 

Rutschman has played only eight games for the Orioles, with a slash line of .167/.286/.233, but he still considered a contender for AL Rookie of the Year, priced at +1200 on DraftKings and +1300 on FanDuel.  

Make sure to keep an eye on our Live Odds page throughout the week to get the best lines possible and connect with others in the SBR community on our popular sports betting forum.