EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

[EaglesPhan36]

LJUBICIC +155

Ljubicic draws Tsonga who was about as impressive as the $1 menu at Arby's. Tsonga's scoreline over Monaco might look like a walk in the park, but it was anything but that. Tsonga's serve was troubled as he was broken five times but Monaco failed to capitalize as he allowed JWT to break him eight times in 15 opportunities. Ljubicic had a much easier time in demolishing Chardy in straights. Old Man River always surprises me with his record on dirt as you'd expect him to be pretty hapless, but he's almost a 60% winner. He generally loses to guys with good dirt form and/or experience, but Tsonga is not in that category. If Ljubicic serves well here, he'll have a shot.

[Brian891]

how u feel about GGL against millot EP? kow its heay heavy juice at -400. is millot any good? will he pull this off?

[EaglesPhan36]

Maybe useful in a parlay with someone, but GGL is not in great form and has never won a main draw match at this tournament. Millot is a small guy who uses defense to try to extend points. I'd probably prefer a pass on it.

[Brian891]

thanks! who would u say s the surest heavy fav tom? i am lookin for someone to put in parlay. are montanes or berdych safer bets? is malisse that bd on clay that he should be +335? i kind of like simon too. would love your take on any or all of those if u dont mind.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm not big on the big favorites tomorrow really. Prices are retarded & most of them carry some risk.

[sharlataans]

Did you have a look at Hanescu vs. Gonzalez? I watched Hanescu against Potito and he was quite good and composed not like other times I have. Looking at stats Hanescu should be heavy favorite, but at my local he is @1.93 -104. Would you give a shot?

[sharlataans]

LJUBICIC +155

Ljubicic draws Tsonga who was about as impressive as the $1 menu at Arby's. Tsonga's scoreline over Monaco might look like a walk in the park, but it was anything but that. Tsonga's serve was troubled as he was broken five times but Monaco failed to capitalize as he allowed JWT to break him eight times in 15 opportunities. Ljubicic had a much easier time in demolishing Chardy in straights. Old Man River always surprises me with his record on dirt as you'd expect him to be pretty hapless, but he's almost a 60% winner. He generally loses to guys with good dirt form and/or experience, but Tsonga is not in that category. If Ljubicic serves well here, he'll have a shot.

EP, did you have a chance to watch Ljubicic against Chardy? How come he won so easily? I faded him at once. Was is because of his serve or Chardy played like shit?

Yes, Tsonga did not look god in last match, a lot of errors. And his strong hits do not help on this surface. But to me Ljubicic is even clumsier than Tsonga.

[EaglesPhan36]

BLUMENAU CHALLENGER

BAGNIS -160
This is right at the threshold of the price I am willing to pay for a single play, but this one appears solid. Bagnis draws Souza on clay today. The two played in late February and Bagnis demolished him in straights. Since then, Bagnis has won a title on clay at this level and made the QFs of another tournament. Souza has continued a poor run with a 2-3 mark on dirt since this loss.

[Allure]

tsonga had no intention to win todays game against ljubicic. great call.

[sharlataans]

tsonga had no intention to win todays game against ljubicic. great call.

Right, he even afforded to go to pee inbetween sets

[ronaldo922]

great call on lubs!

[EaglesPhan36]

[noober]

good call on Ljubicic!

[beefcake]

Shabaz is playing a challenger event today...Can he turn on the switch again?

[EaglesPhan36]

Bagnis sucks. As usual, nothing better than .500 for the day.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well well Souza flops late. Going to a 3rd set.

[EaglesPhan36]

@ Gulbis

Continually underachieving. Lost big to Raonic on what is supposed to be a good surface for him.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bagnis wins as Souza retires down 3-1 in the 3rd.

[h1holstrom]

Nice work once again

[EaglesPhan36]

Notes for me to look at later ... these are not plays at this time:

Fognini +180 - Troicki
Robredo -135 - Verdasco ... wait for better price
Haase +135 - Melzer

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP MONTE CARLO

FOGNINI +170
The Italian draws Troicki here who is not at his best on this surface. Troicki is just barely above .500 in his last 50 matches on clay while Fognini has played exclusively on dirt in 2011. He's sport an 8-5 mark and normally beats lesser opponents on the surface. He took out Kevin Anderson in three sets in his opener, while Troicki worked past Lisnard in straights. Troicki was decent, but nothing special on this surface last year - losing mostly to the clay vets and beating anything lesser. The Serb has never made it past this round in Monte Carlo and with Fognini capable here - an upset is possible.

VERDASCO +110
Why? Quite a good question. Verdasco has looked lost since making the San Jose final and finding himself on the wrong end of a Milos Raonic beating again. Since then, he's just 2-4 and losing to the likes of Pablo Andujar on hard courts? Why? It's all mental. Nothing new for him and now he draws Robredo who has been rock solid in 2011. He seemed no worse for the wear from his abductor injury in March as he took out Dodig with ease in his opener in Monte Carlo. Verdasco gets him as his first-up here with just one other clay match, a loss to Bellucci back in February. Can he simply flip the switch as he did last year here and up his level of play? Robredo has beaten him the last three times they met on clay, but none since last Summer when Verdasco was looking burned out. The clay swing really rejuvenated Verdasco in 2010 and my guess is he is surely hoping that can be the case again this year. He should have motivation as he does have plenty of points to defend here having been a finalist in 2010. If that isn't enough to help him begin to turn it around, nothing probably will. For some stupid fukking reason, I think he will.

[h1holstrom]

Thanks for the picks, good luck today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Verdasco is a lost cause. Stupid fukking pick again.

[ghn999]

What do you think about the andy murray match today?

[EaglesPhan36]

Wouldn't touch that one with a ten foot pole. I don't like Stepanek, but there is absolutely nothing about Andy Murray to like either. I wouldn't be surprised if Stepanek rolls, but I also would not be surprised if Murray actually wins one. Just nothing to like for me on that.

Guess I might as well flow with my original thoughts and go for 0-3. Will take Haase over Melzer. Melzer is not in good form. Haase has played well on dirt on the Challenger level in the past. Only thing I don't like is Haase's serve yesterday - 17 break points offered. Cannot do that again.

[shari91]

Yeah I liked Haase as well and almost made a bet on him awhile ago but after my lovely 0-5 day, I think my putting cash on him would be the kiss of death.

Can't wait until WTA starts again. At least with them I know to expect mental issues.

[EaglesPhan36]

Early break for Haase - maybe we can have some Synergy here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Or not.

[EaglesPhan36]

0-3 on the way. Hope you faded for profits.

[EaglesPhan36]

4.14.11: ATP MONTE CARLO

DEUCE: ROBREDO + ALMAGRO [+152]
I'm not overanalyzing this. Robredo > Troicki on clay. Almagro > Melzer on clay. Robredo in solid form. Almagro always looks like he might need a medical timeout, but somehow finds a way. So fukking do it you Spanish bastages.

[beefcake]

Raonic +4.5 vs ferrrer looks enticing...Everyone is going to take ferrer given the surface but with his serve the canadian can keep it close..

Yeah youre parlay looks solid!

[Brian891]

robredo went down slightly at my book. troicki beat him on clay last year. im almost sold on him. need to see how confident u r EP to see if im gonna bet tommy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wonder what will happen to this guy to jinx this pick. Cannot wait!

ATHENS CHALLENGER

NILAND -135
Niland goes up against clay courter Alcaide who scored a surprise win over Chiudinelli in the opener. He won eight less points than Chiudinelli, so he falls into that formula that I like to fade which is players winning their matches, but not winning more points than their opponent. Niland has been pretty poor in 2011, but possesses a big serve that can be effective on hard courts. Alcaide has not won back-2-back matches on this surface since July 2009 whereas the Irishman did have some good moments on this surface in 2010 on the Challenger level.

[stc9357]

Wonder what will happen to this guy to jinx this pick. Cannot wait!

ATHENS CHALLENGER

NILAND -135
Niland goes up against clay courter Alcaide who scored a surprise win over Chiudinelli in the opener. He won eight less points than Chiudinelli, so he falls into that formula that I like to fade which is players winning their matches, but not winning more points than their opponent. Niland has been pretty poor in 2011, but possesses a big serve that can be effective on hard courts. Alcaide has not won back-2-back matches on this surface since July 2009 whereas the Irishman did have some good moments on this surface in 2010 on the Challenger level.

Wish you would have posted this earlier would have tailed, I played Bohli (2x) at (-195) in that tourney.

[EaglesPhan36]

TALLAHASSEE CHALLENGER

KUZNETSOV +125
Bobby Reynolds is the foe and I don't usually trust Bobby Retread at that sort of price. Both have worked well in the first two rounds. Kuznetsov improved on-serve from the 1st round to the 2nd. Reynolds has been steady, not spectacular. These two have met eight times with the series split down the middle. Kuznetsov though won in 3 earlier this year in Honolulu & beat Retread at this tournament last year during a semifinals run. Retread has won here before, but since that title in 2008 - he is 3-2 with two of those wins coming this year. Form doesn't particularly favor either this year. Kuznetsov made the Honolulu final, but has not played a ton since or done much. Retread has played a lot in qualis for ATP events, but hasn't made a main draw since Auckland in early January.