EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

micky · 05-22-11, 07:04 AM

With you in Sunday's play

EaglesPhan36 · 05-22-11, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Best of luck the next two weeks Eagles. Fading Gulbis is always a good way to start haha

Worked like a charm! Disappointing Millot could not finish off Teixiera. He had him ripe for the taking, but could not finish up 2-1.

LoL@Cilic. What a turd. Luckily he only killed me in the contest as I would never lay money on that sunnuvabitch.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-22-11, 02:58 PM

Well 1-2 in the opener, I'll take it. Hitting a decent priced dog helps and it wasn't far from being 2-1 if Millot hadn't imploded.

Got tomorrow scoped out for the most part, doing some double checking now before finalizing Monday's choices.

Two pieces of advice still for anyone who cares: Try not to over due it on the chalk parlays. There is nothing wrong with parlaying some bigger favorites, but I think once you get past 4-6 players in a parlay - you're just asking for heart break. Most of you know my personal opinion, stick to TWO selections in a parlay if you can find decently priced ones to pair. Also, set your plays before the day starts and DON'T add action plays after that.

I see it all the time with our casual or specialty Grand Slam bettors ... these two things kill many a bettor. Trust me, I've learned it the hard way! Good luck with your choices during the French!

Tsonga · 05-22-11, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Well 1-2 in the opener, I'll take it. Hitting a decent priced dog helps and it wasn't far from being 2-1 if Millot hadn't imploded.

Got tomorrow scoped out for the most part, doing some double checking now before finalizing Monday's choices.

Two pieces of advice still for anyone who cares: Try not to over due it on the chalk parlays. There is nothing wrong with parlaying some bigger favorites, but I think once you get past 4-6 players in a parlay - you're just asking for heart break. Most of you know my personal opinion, stick to TWO selections in a parlay if you can find decently priced ones to pair. Also, set your plays before the day starts and DON'T add action plays after that.

I see it all the time with our casual or specialty Grand Slam bettors ... these two things kill many a bettor. Trust me, I've learned it the hard way! Good luck with your choices during the French!

good advice

koscheckbaby · 05-22-11, 06:15 PM

I did some investigating on parlays for tomorrow. I feel comfortable with Cuevas, Raonic, and JMDP. Thinking of even going with Petzchner. 4 is probably too extreme though?

EaglesPhan36 · 05-22-11, 07:06 PM

I think four is acceptable in a Slam. I'm not one to want anything with DelPo though until I see him play. Guessing he is healthy, but uncertain until I see it.

koscheckbaby · 05-22-11, 07:14 PM

Who screws me from most likely to least likely?

Petzchner over Zverev
JMDP over Karolovic
Cuevas over Veic
Raonic over Berrer

EaglesPhan36 · 05-22-11, 07:28 PM

Without a doubt - DelPo because of the health concerns. He could show up and roll, he could withdraw after a set. I like the other three.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-22-11, 10:18 PM

Monday's French Open Plays
Parlay: Bellucci + L.Mayer [-105]
Maximo Gonzalez +120
Rezai +110

Also throwing a little today on Azarenka +540 to win. As I outlined in my first look at the draws. Hers is not that difficult if she is healthy. That of course is the big question + mental fortitude, but she looks good for a QF run at-worst if near 100%.

JNic · 05-22-11, 11:07 PM

i know golubev is a headcase and has the game to win but mentally it would be very tough for him to take down bellucci. but don't you think he has a chance to pull it together, if he is able to serve very well, to really really trouble bellucci. i know bellucci will have that loopy lefty forehand matched up crosscourt with golubevs one handed backhand, but i think he can handle that.
idk but what are your thoughts on bellucci here?

sharlataans · 05-23-11, 12:07 AM

My chalk parlay pair for today is Hanescu + Berlocq. I hit 2 3-teamers yesterday so these chalk parlays are working great in the 1st round. Not too many upsets except for Cilic.

sharlataans · 05-23-11, 12:11 AM

If some women favorite is too juicy you may have a look at sets betting. 2-0 is quite realistic

EaglesPhan36 · 05-23-11, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by JNic

i know golubev is a headcase and has the game to win but mentally it would be very tough for him to take down bellucci. but don't you think he has a chance to pull it together, if he is able to serve very well, to really really trouble bellucci. i know bellucci will have that loopy lefty forehand matched up crosscourt with golubevs one handed backhand, but i think he can handle that. idk but what are your thoughts on bellucci here?

On clay, Bellucci has much better class than Golubev. Even with his mental instability, I think Bellucci wins in 4 at worst.

micky · 05-23-11, 05:44 AM

I like your parlay. Good luck

Tsonga · 05-23-11, 06:43 AM

I like the Belluci pick...looks like you could be right on the # of sets too.

Should be interesting to see what Monfils has today - he hasn't played in a while. I don't think there is any chance he will let Phau take him out first round.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-23-11, 07:21 AM

He's like Del Potro for me. Watch and see what he has first. He could be a dangerous guy here IF he's healthy.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-23-11, 07:26 AM

I can also see Bellucci cracking in the 5th if he drops this tie break. Always said one bad moment in a match totally ruins this guy a lot.

sharlataans · 05-23-11, 08:08 AM

Look Monfils is about to lose 1st set. Can he also crack if it goes to distance? I wonder if his conditioning is ok and if it would matter.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-23-11, 08:10 AM

Definitely matters. One thing Phau does is run. That's why taking guys coming back from injuries is not worth a 1st round wager to me. Berdych is really struggling, another reason I skip the real high chalk for parlays too. Medium to low chalk for me!

sharlataans · 05-23-11, 08:15 AM

I don't have a video, but looks like Phau guy is all over the place. Has 12 winners and 16 unforced errors. Monfils - 7 winners 9 unforced errors.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-23-11, 08:16 AM

Well I think you find out about Monfils health now. Dropping an opening set after a long layoff isn't that unexpected. How he responds is key.

onacloud · 05-23-11, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Well I think you find out about Monfils health now. Dropping an opening set after a long layoff isn't that unexpected. How he responds is key.

Look's like he'll be fine he took the 2nd.

sharlataans · 05-23-11, 09:08 AM

Wow even if Berdych pulls this out he'll be dead worn in his next match

onacloud · 05-23-11, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by sharlataans

Wow even if Berdych pulls this out he'll be dead worn in his next match

Not looking good he's ******* my parlay up too

EaglesPhan36 · 05-23-11, 11:37 AM

Maximo is failing right now. Went against one of my good little qualifying money makers in Schoorel. Generally like that youngster, but thought Maximo would win out on veteran savvy at the end of the day.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-23-11, 12:31 PM

Well if Mayer can close out the Germaican, can at least nick another 1-2 day with just a one unit loss after both dogs fail pretty miserably in straight sets.

koscheckbaby · 05-23-11, 12:54 PM

THE BSD, Big Dick Raonic drops the first set to Berrer and now down a break. God, even as much as I hate the dude, I never expected him to have ANY trouble with Berrer. Berrer moves like an absolute slug on Clay.

I wish I had access to live betting, I'd take BSD to comeback.

Thunderman · 05-23-11, 01:25 PM

Need Cuevas to step it up right now, got him in the last leg of a parlay!

EaglesPhan36 · 05-23-11, 01:26 PM

Even at 1 now. Not rare to see an inexperienced guy even with the better talent drop the opening set. Situationally a lot of guys will show rust in the opening set and then find their games - especially at Slam knowing that dropping one set isn't as big a deal as it is the rest of the year in the best of 3 format.

Very surprised Cuevas isn't doing better.

stc9357 · 05-23-11, 01:32 PM

I could shot Cuevas right now.

beefcake · 05-23-11, 01:38 PM

Wow, retirement saves some major bankroll today Im sure..

EaglesPhan36 · 05-23-11, 01:42 PM

Raonic still on the ropes it looks like he might go down 2-1. Bet a lot will be pissed if he kills them today. He was a tough one to gauge coming in. He did enough on his limited clay play to talk some people into him, I am sure - but having never played the French before, definitely another one of those watch & wait guys for me. Hope he pulls it out though, it's more fun with him around.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-23-11, 01:44 PM

Some good matches tomorrow I think: Dimitrov-Chardy, Monaco-Verdasco, Ljubicic-Devvarman [maybe], Giraldo-Andujar

koscheckbaby · 05-23-11, 01:45 PM

Big Dick Raonic has to still win this. Berrer is a slug.

Thunderman · 05-23-11, 01:48 PM

Woot, Cuevas retires...atleast he knows to save my money if he can't win me any more.