1. #71
    Conqueror
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    Krajinovic pulled a nice upset?

  2. #72
    Maizey
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    Yep, JB was correct about Tsitsipas being too short. Might be a trend for him to not be overly motivated for 500 events given that he is now a legit contender in the top events.

  3. #73
    Jeff_Black
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    Yeah I wasn't surprised he bowed out early focussing on the bigger picture. At the same time didn't get a great read on the tournament which was a bit disappointing but with the US Open around the corner there will be plenty of motivation for the field.

    One player who I was eyeing before the tournament to follow and who I think has a winnable draw in the first round is 18 year old American Teen Zach Svajda.

    He was a Wildcard here two years ago as a 16 year old and lost in five sets to the seasoned Paolo Lorenzi after being up 2-0, after suffering body cramps but hopefully another two years on the tour has prepared his body a bit better for the rigours of the mens draw. If he can have a similar path on the rise to the top 100 and then 50 like Sebastian Korda did then it's going to be a bright future for US Men's Tennis. I like his game, he has good net play, some solid ground strokes, and a decent serve.

    I can't see anything on Pinnacle with the odds, but according to flashscore which uses Bet365 he's 3.50, and 3.32 with a local bookmaker here so more then happy to take those odds. Will post that as a play when the time comes.

    He's playing Marco Cecchinato who had a flash in the pan SF appearance at Roland Garros and continues to do nothing at Grand Slam level outside of that. 0/14 appearances outside of the 1R in Slams outside of the French Open. And 3/17 as a Pro Tour with 9 non-appearances in the main draw due to failing to qualify.

    If there is a winnable spot for him, it's this one, with the odds on offer it's worth a play.

  4. #74
    Jeff_Black
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    US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
    Aslan Karatsev vs Jaume Munar
    Moneyline: Jaume Munar, 4.10 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    I am fading Karatsev who has posted a 2-5 record since the French Open. Not the kind of form you want from someone who is a top 30 player, on the back of some excellent earlier season form. But hasn't quite been the same player either. Munar isn't in great form himself, but I feel the odds are a bit too far apart and for two guys who have been mostly Challenger players for a lot of their careers I'll side with the dog who has a good chance as any for an upset.


    US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
    Adrian Mannarino vs Pierre Hueges-Herbert
    Moneyline: Adrian Mannarino, 2.74 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Mannarino was playing well against Federer until a slip and fall injury cost him a potential second round match playing with plenty of momentum. Last year when there was a break, it wasn't an issue for him as he made it to the 3R, being the fourth occasion having done so. He's older then his opponent but the US Open has not been kind to Herbert who has a 1-4 record here in the main draw. There is not that big of an advantage here playing style to me so I'm happy to take the underdog with the odds on offer.


    US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
    Miomir Kecmanovic vs Arthur Rinderknech
    Handicap: Miomir Kecmanovic -1.0, 1.892 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Rinderknech may come with some form, but a lot of it is also from Challengers. Kecmanovic has played tougher opposition and in a best of 5 set match I think will get the job done on his preferred US hardcourts.


    US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
    Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marco Trungelliti
    Total Games: Under 33.5, 1.943 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    I think ADF wins quite comfortable, and in 3 sets, but taking the best odds on offer. I don't think Trungelliti troubles him. There is a bit of a difference in level and Trungelliti has a much smaller sample size and success rate on the Pro Tour. He's 31 and been qualifying for Slams since 2012 and only has 7 out of 77 appearances to show for it. and only 26 of those were when he was good enough to qualify. ADF is sometimes known to struggle to close out matches but I think his baseline play and movement will be too much for his opponent.

  5. #75
    Jeff_Black
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    Disappointing not to hit a few but getting two dogs, one at 3s, i'll take that.

    US Open, Mens Singles, R2
    Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Felix Auger-Alliasime
    Moneyline: Bernabe Zapata Miralles, 6.77 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Haven't been particularly thrilled with Felix Auger-Alliasime's form in this US Open, and even a bit at Cincinnati. Didn't look convincing against Tsitsipas despite winning a set either. Bernabe Zapata Miralles had to qualify and despite playing five sets against Lopez I don't feel he is done yet and the odds on offer combined with Felix Auger-Alliasime's shaky form I think it's worth a play. He made 48 UE in his match against Donskoy and you aren't going to be continuing to win matches playing like that.


    US Open, Mens Singles, R2
    Kevin Anderson vs Diego Schwartzman
    Moneyline: Kevin Anderson, 2.98 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Anderson played a tough 5 set match against Vesely but both guys served pretty well and Anderson hit some nice volleys. Whilst Diego is a good returner I'm less then convinced on serve he will keep up and if he falls behind he is prone to struggling. Being a former finalist and one that thrives on US Hardcourts I don't mind Anderson in this spot.


    US Open, Mens Singles, R2
    Cristian Garin vs Henri Laakonsen
    Moneyline: Henri Laakonsen, 2.61 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    I took a few looks at Laakonsen to beat Millman in 1R before passing knowing Millman well. Here I feel like I know Garin pretty well and his game is less suited on hardcourts then it is on the other surfaces. He's had a good year on the slams but his hard court form is less then convincing. Laakonsen has a much better serve and more power then Gombos whilst his game suits this surface as we saw in his 1R matchup. I think he can get the job done again.

  6. #76
    OVAKUL
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    FAA disappointed me, barely winning RD1

  7. #77
    Chiefs83
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    I like your thread interested in your thoughts

  8. #78
    Jeff_Black
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs83 View Post
    I like your thread interested in your thoughts
    Thanks for checking in and commenting, always enjoy discussing tennis with likeminded fans, players, information and the such even when the big events aren't happening.
    Covid makes it harder to get a gauge on a players motivation, but I guess its about following the tournaments best you can, sussing out what you see as value, and getting some enjoyment out of following the games and trying to predict what will happen.

    Disappointed with the losses, had some chances to win those first sets. Especially Anderson who has had breaks and break points but couldn't capitalise. Credit to the guy across the net for making it tough.

    US Open, Mens Singles, R2
    Zach Svajda vs Janik Sinner
    Moneyline: Zach Svajda, 11.44 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    I'm backing the guy again that I said I'd follow so I'm very keen to see how he goes again, with the crowd behind him. Handled his 1R match well for someone his age and with his inexperience. For those who have followed the tennis threads in the past few years long before he won the NextGen Tournament have seen first hand how Sinner has evolved into a Pro Tour level player but he is still working on his game and breaking through on the slam level outside of clay. If you prefer to take a line, by all means. For a guy who has just won his 2nd match on slams outside of clay I don't think he is that reliable and I think he is most definitely beatable on this surface. It wasn't entirely convincing either against a Challenger level player but I think a guy like Svajda will be on the Pro Tour more often then not in the coming years.


    US Open, Mens Singles, R2
    Jenson Brooksby vs Taylor Fritz
    Moneyline: Taylor Fritz, 2.01 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Personal perception from their matches and form coming in is that I think Fritz should be favourite. Brooskby is a nice flavour of the season but you can't deny Fritz's experience in best of 5 at these bigger events. He played exceptional against De Minaur and I expect him to tighten up his errors going forward. He will be tough to break and could take advantage of some of Brooksby's shaky serving going into this match up. There is a big opportunity to progress to the 4R here as well with a very winnable match against Karatsev or Thompson as well and for someone like Fritz who has had quite a few tough 3R matches it will be nice to play someone who isn't Djokovic or Thiem for example.


    US Open, Mens Singles, R2
    Kei Nishikori vs Mackenzie McDonald
    Moneyline: Mackenzie McDonald, 2.20 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Funnily enough in contrary to my above pick I think the odds are pretty accurate but I think McDonald can get another win against Nishikori like he did in Washington. He was VERY impressive in disposing of Goffin and Nishikori hasn't been playing too badly on hards so far either. With the crowd support I think McDonald will find ways into Nishikori's suspect serve and break through to the 3R here.


    There is a couple more I like, will add them as well...

  9. #79
    Jeff_Black
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    Quote Originally Posted by OVAKUL View Post
    FAA disappointed me, barely winning RD1
    Yeah I'm not totally sold on him. Bautista next. +100 underdog with Bautista being -120 so they know it's gonna be a tough one heh.

  10. #80
    Jeff_Black
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    US Open, Mens Singles, R2
    Denis Kudla vs Oscar Otte
    Moneyline: Oscar Otte, 2.67 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    I don't think the difference in odds is that big in comparison with difference in playing ability. Kudla had a good win against Djere but Djere is not exactly the most difficult opponent to beat on hardcourts making it past the 1R once in his pro career.
    The difference here in my opinion is that Otte has a far better serve then Kudla or Djere and behind his momentum from Qualifying and his win against Sonego I think he looks the goods to progress to the 3R.


    There were two others I was considering, the Shapovalov line but I'm still at the point where I don't entirely trust him, even though I expect him to win in three here. The other was taking Steve Johnson to upset Monfils...despite Monfils struggles since the tour resumed from its suspension he does love playing at the US Open and had a good win in the 1R so I'm sitting out after re-thinking.
    Last edited by Jeff_Black; 09-02-21 at 03:56 AM.

  11. #81
    Chiefs83
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    I love Svajda +8.5

  12. #82
    Jeff_Black
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs83 View Post
    I love Svajda +8.5
    Did it comfortably, nice work.

  13. #83
    Conqueror
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    Nice work!

  14. #84
    Chiefs83
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    Do you like Mertens tonight vs Jabuer

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