2020 (and some of 2019) Tennis Season Picks & Analysis

**leetreaper** · 12-19-19, 05:29 AM

On Rublev +3.5

Cheers.

**Jeff_Black** · 12-20-19, 04:00 AM

Not the ideal result. Rublev had his chances in the second set, and was actually playing aggressive tennis but was unfortunately not aggressive enough on the break points to convert.

0 - 1 - 0 (-1u)

ATP Abu Dhabi
Andrey Rublev vs Hyeon Chung
Handicap: Andrey Rublev -2.5, 1.80 on Bet365
Stake: 2u play

I saw plenty of positive signs against a superior opponent that make me confident against his next inferior opponent for Rublev. He was definately a different player when he lost those matches against Chung in 2017 in comparison to now. Two of those were in a different format as well so it's not as fair of a comparison. His comments after his match suggested he was upbeat about his performance and doesn't plan on fading away in this tournament.
It's interesting to note that between the first and second game (and during the second game) the temperature dropped which made it a bit of a slower game for Chung against Khachanov, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the earlier, more warmer and faster temperature. Rublev probably did not serve as well as he would have liked against Tsitsipas but I think with a match under his belt he can turn that around.

**Jeff_Black** · 12-21-19, 07:35 AM

0 - 2 - 0 (-3u)

Not ideal to be broken when serving for the match, but that's the way it is some times. Rublev didn't really look like losing that match at any point, even when Chung was up a break, but he looked very well in control of that second set, so it's a surprise he managed to only win it in a tiebreak.

ATP Abu Dhabi, 3rd place play-off
Novak Djokovic vs Karen Khachanov
Handicap: Novak Djokovic -4.5, 1.83 on Bet365
Stake: 2u play

An excellent match between Djokovic and Tsitsipas to start the season with both guys not really treating the tournament like an exhibition match. Novak got pretty complacent and committed some uncharacteristic errors when trying to press for opportunities but even with that said, his game should be too much for Khachanov to handle. He is also working with a new coach on top of his pre-existing coach so I'm not sure what their plan is going forward. Djokovic had quite a few tricks up his sleeve against Tsitsipas and despite not being as polished if he is able to cut down on the errors he should be hard to handle.

ATP Abu Dhabi, Final
Rafael Nadal vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Moneyline: Stefanos Tsitsipas, 2.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

As mentioned the SF between Tsitsipas and Djokovic was highly entertaining, and Tsitsipas despite not being perfect handled Djokovic's deep shots pretty well and countered with some of his own. He will probably have to be better to beat Nadal but he has the confidence and form to win the trophy as well as a nice cool $250k in prizemoney (last time I checked it was anyway)
Tsitsipas seems to be a player who responds well to a loss. He beat Nadal on clay at home in Madrid after losing in the Australian Open, and he beat Djokovic in Shanghai after falling to him in the Madrid Final, as well as beating him here in Abu Dhabi after falling to him in Paris.
Even though previous indicators aren't an indicator when it comes to Nadal because he gives it his all I feel like Tsitsipas will be up for this one with a chance to beat 2 of the big three here in Abu Dhabi.

**DoctorStrong** · 12-21-19, 10:02 AM

gl this season

**Conqueror** · 12-22-19, 11:10 PM

Hard to figure out player motivation levels at this time of year.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-02-20, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by Conqueror

Hard to figure out player motivation levels at this time of year.

Definitely, just easing my way back into things.

Also worth noting but im sure yourself and others know this already but the ATP Cup does have rankings points and prize money on offer for its attendees depending on results.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-02-20, 06:27 PM

1 - 3 (-2.34u)

ATP Cup, Group Stage
USA vs Norway
John Isner vs Casper Ruud
Money line: Casper Ruud, 2.70 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Cup, Group Stage
Canada vs Greece
Denis Shapovalov vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas -2, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 01-03-20, 02:09 AM

2 - 4 (-1.64u)

ATP Cup, Group Stage
Germany vs Australia
Nick Kyrgios vs Jan Lennard Struff
Set Handicap: Nick Kyrgios -1.5 sets, 2.26 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Ugh, this should end well but Kyrgios has actually got a respectable run of games going into this tournament when the format are these team/country battles.
He has been quoted many times saying he enjoys this format and I think it may bring the best of him here.
He’s 11-5 in Davis Cup as well as well as 6-1 in the Hopman Cup.
He will be in hot water the moment he steps out of line so I think he will embrace the idea of playing at home and come up with some good matches after coming out on social media trying to encourage a charity match to raise funds for the Australian Bushfires the way they did several years ago with Hit for Haiti.

ATP Cup, Group Stage
Great Britain vs Bulgaria
Dan Evans vs Grigor Dimitrov
Money line: Dan Evans, 2.41 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Think Dimitrov might be over valued going into 2020 after a remarkable Us open run amongst a few other tournaments. Did like him initially but Evans also had a solid 2019 and doesn’t mind playing on the Australian Hardcourts either.
There shouldn’t be much between these two but I think with the odds on hand it presents enough value for me to believe Evans can get it done.

**beefcake** · 01-03-20, 06:57 AM

Lovin this cup so far man.Thanks for the picks jeff

Lol norway was +650 to win the tie..and they did

**beefcake** · 01-03-20, 06:59 AM

Jeff di minaur looks like an aussie version of a rafa nadal.Guy runs down everything and has boundless energy.

He might win majors in the future.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-03-20, 07:48 AM

Highly entertaining tie between Germany and Australia. Zverev had no business losing that game, but 11 double faults begs to differ. You could feel even up in the second set after only just being able to close out the first set that if De Minaur hung in there he would have a shot. Zverev is a bit like his mate courtside Boris on what he used to be like back when he played in a way. A great front runner, but if you just leave the door open a little bit and frustrate him, he could have a collapse and fall apart.
De Minaur probably would struggle to push a competitive match with the big three, mainly due to the fact that he still struggles to get enough out of his serve and free points wise. And this match is evident of that. But the hard yards has definately paid off for him it seems.

Kyrgios didn't do much wrong either. Served well and weathered his opponents serve well. Didn't crack under pressure. Could have been like Zverev here but wasn't.

3 - 4 (-0.38u)

ATP Cup, Group Stages
France vs Chile
Benoit Paire vs Nicolas Jarry
Moneyline: Nicolas Jarry, 2.75 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I think Chile can grab one of the singles rubbers in this tie, but rather then do both i'll just take one and see how it pans out. Jarry has been working out at the IMG Academy over the off-season with new coaching and after reaching new heights in his career including a title, it will be interesting to see where he goes to from here. His opponent on the other hand has always been a floater, happy to hang around the top 50, sometimes enjoying rare purple patches of form where he can make it deep in a draw, other times losing very comfortably, on the border line of a fix. Both guys are known for being clay grinders and while Paire has the slight advantage on hards I feel coming into 2020 that Jarry is the guy who will look to make a move closer to the top.

ATP Cup, Group Stages
Argentina vs Poland
Diego Sebastien Schwartzman vs Hubert Hurkacz
Moneyline: Hubert Hurkacz, 2.33 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Despite the odds, I think at this point I give the edge to Hurkacz being the better player on hard courts. It would be normal to assume that Pella does enough and grabs the first singles rubber pushing the motivation on the young polish to get the 2nd rubber win here in a matchup he wouldn't mind considering they haven't played each other. He has had a solid run on challengers on Hard Courts over the past few years and has made that transition onto hard court, pushing himself to a ranking 37 as opposed to being outside the top 200 in 2018. In that process he beat a few notable names and picked up his first title in Winston Salem too. Looking for him to try and get a win in this tie for his country.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-03-20, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

Lovin this cup so far man.Thanks for the picks jeff
Lol norway was +650 to win the tie..and they did

Yeah USA are tough to predict. Their players don't seem to do as well here in Australia, not sure what it is. Even guys like Roddick, Fish and Blake had a bit of success here being able to make it to the QF. Doubles is probably tough to pick as well with some of the ties.

Originally posted by beefcake

Jeff di minaur looks like an aussie version of a rafa nadal.Guy runs down everything and has boundless energy.

He might win majors in the future.

It's funny he gets similar comparisons to Hewitt as well being out there with him and the team. I've spoken with guys who have been following the sport for decades and do worry about his size/lack of weapons despite the fact he plays with heart. In fact 15 years ago he would have fitted in perfectly.

Between him and Alexei Popyrin the contrarian in me honestly thinks that Popyrin has the higher ceiling out of the two for various reasons. But also at his young age is that he has shown the kind of weapons he has and can develop, equipped with his high tennis IQ.
He is actually better then Kyrgios in most aspects, except for two aspects, serve and backhand. And those are fixable things, easily. He is fast and is a great mover as well, equipped with his height, he can also develop into a better volleyer.
His problem has been a bit maturity for reasons that are kept private, and that was showcased in his round three match in Australia last year, I think it was against Simon.

The Berreteni match at the US Open shows he's on the right path, but a work in progress, and to expect a leap in the rankings at some point over the next 12-18 months.
He's a couple of steps behind atm, but when he catches up, we'll see...it'll be interesting to see their careers at the end I think...

**Don_Omarion** · 01-03-20, 05:53 PM

Fucsovics M. - Gerasimov E.

why Fucsovics @-160 ? is he injured ? or it’s because the 1st game @season ?

**Jeff_Black** · 01-03-20, 09:57 PM

Wrong thread bud?

**Jeff_Black** · 01-03-20, 10:34 PM

3 - 6 (-2.38u)

Ugh, two guys that faltered.

ATP Cup, Group Stages
Japan vs Uruguay
Yoshihito Nishioka vs Pablo Cuevas
Moneyline: Pablo Cuevas, 2.59 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

With the likelyness of Japan taking the opening rubber it is up to Cuevas to keep the tie alive in the second one. Despite some inconsistent form from both players Cuevas has been a reliable Davis Cup stallion winning his last 9. Despite this I'm not sure if Nishioka has addressed his fitness problems and Cuevas is one to not mind going the distance and grinding out a win. I don't think there is as much as between these guys as the odds suggest and on his day Cuevas is a tough guy to crack on serve. Not sure how Nishioka will handle the conditions either but with the odds on present there is enough value to take the veteran.

**Conqueror** · 01-04-20, 04:03 AM

BOL this year!

**nuxx??** · 01-04-20, 01:44 PM

Cuevas still vacationing

**Don_Omarion** · 01-04-20, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Wrong thread bud?

I was asking you why Fucso has this value against Gerasimov , but you did not understand

anyway no problem , I placed the bet before you respond correctly .. keep up the good work though

**Jeff_Black** · 01-04-20, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by Don_Omarion

I was asking you why Fucso has this value against Gerasimov , but you did not understand

anyway no problem , I placed the bet before you respond correctly .. keep up the good work though

Oh I see, my bad. I actually hadn't been looking at Doha Qualifiers, well not the point of wanting to wager on them.

Originally posted by nuxx??

Cuevas still vacationing

Yeah that was a shocker. Just didn't want to be there hey. Bit annoying.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-04-20, 10:24 PM

4 - 7 (-3.05u)

ATP Cup, Group Stage
Italy vs Norway
Fabio Fognini vs Casper Ruud
Handicap: Fabio Fognini -2, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Both guys played some nice tennis in their previous matches and I think there were some definately solid elements of Fognini's game against Medvedev, but I can't see Ruud backing up his win against Isner with Norway scoring the upset over the USA. It probably won't be as much of a serving battle between these two and Fognini is a much better returner and mover then Isner. I think he will be too much to handle for the young Norweigan.

ATP Cup, Group Stage
Belgium vs Great Britain
David Goffin vs Dan Evans
Handicap: Dan Evans -4, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Was disappointed with how Evans handled the finish to the game against Dimitrov and in a better in form player with Goffin I think he should handle him comfortably. Goffin has been a solid representative for his country in team tournaments and I expect that continue today.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-08-20, 05:30 AM

4 - 9 (-5.05u)

ATP Doha 250, Mens Singles, R16
Milos Raonic vs Corentin Moutet
Moneyline: Corentin Moutet, 3.35 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

This is a bit overs for my liking considering Raonic's steady decline since his breakout season in 2016, and especially last year. In 2019 he did not win a title, or back to back matches since London and has steadily fallen outside the top 30. Raonic has had multiple injury setbacks and with his opponent playing a few qualifier matches, and his first round match on top of some promising results in 2019 I think he can cause an upset having watched his qualifying matches. Raonic is not a great returner and Moutet has had a solid winning percentage on serve in this tournament so far, so as long as he is able to take care of things on his side with his rhythm on serve he has a great chance of scoring an upset here in Doha.

ATP Doha 250, Mens Singles, R16
Marton Fuscovics vs Cem IIkel
Total Games: Under 21 Games, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Fuscovics performed well in Doha last year against Djokovic and he has battled through in this section of the draw as well. But I think he will be too much for his opponent who has notched up some impressive wins. With that said prior to that he had not registered a tour level win and was 1-14 against top 100 opposition. Fuscovics is a different level to his opponents and should advance further then he did last year. With the line at 4.5 I'm taking the extra insurance in the under expecting it to be two sets.

ATP Doha 250, Mens Singles, R16
Fernando Verdasco vs Filip Krajinovic
Total Games: Over 23 Games, 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Both players have been pretty inconsistent on hardcourts in 2019 and despite being a local Verdasco has only made it past the second round once in his time here. While Krajinovic is better then Verdasco's previous opponent he is also capable of inconsistency and dropping a set, as well as Verdasco who also seems to struggle in these matches as well. Expecting a three set match in this one.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-08-20, 05:48 AM

ATP Cup, Group Stage
Georgia vs Uruguay
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Pablo Cuevas
Handicap: Nikoloz Basilashvili -3.5, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Last tie of these Group Stages, both countries and players playing for a bit of pride here. Basilashvili has come up a bit short in he's matches but he's put up a bit of a fight and at least tried to win. As documented earlier Cuevas looks like he doesn't want to be there and just watching some errors made me feel like that too. I expect the Georgian to salvage this last matchup.

ATP Cup, Group Stage
Croatia vs Argentina
Borna Coric vs Diego Sebastien Schwartzman
Moneyline: Borna Coric, 2.26 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Giving Borna a go here despite being poor against Hurkacz. I don't trust Diego on HC's as much and I think Coric has the power to compete with his opponent. With the odds at hand I won't mind taking the dog here despite the form.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-08-20, 03:52 PM

7 - 11 (-2.781)

Ugh Undid all the good work from Doha with two sub par picks.

ATP Cup, QF
Great Britain vs Australia
Nick Kyrgios vs Cameron Norrie
Handicap: Nick Kyrgios -4, 2.16 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Probably could have taken a smaller line but the hit in juice is way too much for my liking. That said at this inaugural event at his home country I think Kyrgios has been playing well, and should notch up a comfortable win against Norrie who has had some sub par matches here against inferior opponents.

ATP Cup, QF
Great Britain vs Australia
Dan Evans vs Alex De Minaur
Money line: Dan Evans, 3.12 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I am surprised at myself for thinking of taking this but I feel there might be a chink here in De Minaur’s form even though his odds suggest it is not as much of an easy win as we should think.
Evans has had some good match practice playing some decent tennis and for him I feel the odds are a bit overs. He lost to Dimitrov in three sets and beat Goffin who was playing very good and had the power and ground strokes to keep up with them. He can definitely over power Alex as well. Provided mentally he holds it together unlike some of Alex’s opponents.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-09-20, 01:20 AM

9 - 11 (+0.499u)

ATP Cup, Men’s Singles
Argentina vs Russia
Guido Pella vs Karen Khachanov
Money line: Guido Pella, 3.38 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Another matchup where I feel it’s a bit mis priced with both players looking good on singles despite Pellas bizarre loss despite being up 6-0.
I don’t think Khachanov should be that heavily favoured as he didn’t look too convincing against his two opponents (he was down 2-5 against Travalgia) before winning in straights.
If Pella can get this into a gruelling battle of rallies he can certainly go the distance against a sometimes mentally unstable Khachanov.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-09-20, 04:25 AM

9 - 12 (-0.501u)

Took Pella a while to find his groove in that game, but was too late. Shame some shoddy serving cost him in that tiebreak.

ATP Cup, Mens Singles, QF
Daniil Medvedev vs Diego Sebastien Schwartzman
Total Games: Under 21.5 Games, 2.07 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

I have the line about right with Medvedev being better by 4 games, so I'll take the under with the expectation that he wins this in two sets. With Khachanov sealing the early win he will want to make it 2-0 to give Russia an early SF berth from this tie. I'm not looking into the Coric win too much as he was pretty garbage and looked like he had conceded pretty early being broken at 40 multiple times. Medvedev has won his matches comfortable and isn't a great matchup for the smaller Schwartzman. Expecting him to continue his run in this rubber.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-09-20, 06:17 PM

9 - 13 (-2.501u)

ATP Cup, Men’s Singles, QF
Serbia vs Canada
Dusan Lajovic vs Felix Auger Alissime
Money line: Dusan Lajovic 2.25 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Going with a bit of form here and a lot more on the line as these two meet. Felix hasn’t exactly had a tough draw but he’s struggled in this tournament and conditions so far.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-09-20, 08:05 PM

10 - 13 (-0.801u)

ATP Cup, Men’s Singles, QF
Serbia vs Canada
Novak Djokovic vs Denis Shapovalov
Total Games: Denis Shapovalov Over 8.5 Games, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

This should be an interesting match as Shapovalov has given Djokovic a few issues in the past, I expect it to be a bit closer then the lines suggest and he has played well in the team stages to date. Being down 0-1 he should be keen to give this a good fight to level things out.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-10-20, 01:23 AM

11 - 13 (+0.099u)

ATP Cup, Mens Singles, QF
Spain vs Belgium
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Steve Darcis
Total Games: Under 18.5 Games, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Steve Darcis in his long career has struggled to record wins against top 10 players. He did famously beat Nadal in Wimbledon in Round 1 in 2013 in one of the biggest upsets at the time. It was Nadal's first loss in the opening round of a slam.
He is much older now at 35, and planning to retire after the Australian Open, so this tournament has been a nice little way of honouring his career from both his and his countries point of view.
But match up wise Bautista should be too much for him to handle. This is primarly because he has played mostly Challenger Level events after the ATP Tour has long passed him by.
I think he will struggle to break down Bautista's game, and from them I think Bautista will do enough to win this comfortably.

EDIT: Errrgghh last minute change with the line ups and Bautista is playing someone else so that's gonna be voided. Bautista should still cover the line/go unders for those who want to go in live.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-10-20, 03:19 AM

11 - 13 - 1 (+0.099u)

ATP Cup, Mens Singles, QF
Spain vs Belgium
David Goffin vs Rafael Nadal
Moneyline: David Goffin, 8.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Last few Nadal matches haven't exactly been easy wins and now with a lot more on the line it'll be interesting to see how opponents go. As we saw earlier today Denis Shapovalov took it to Djokovic before coming short and Schwartzman also made it a tight contest with Medvedev. Not suggesting the same will happen but there is enough value for my liking to take Goffin as I've seen him improve in every match he's played against Nadal. And he's already played some pretty physical players here at the ATP Cup in preparation for that. If Belgium are able to tie it up 1-1 they'll like their chances in the doubles and Goffin will I think give it his best shot to make that happen.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-10-20, 04:06 AM

ATP Doha 250, Mens Singles, QF
Corentin Moutet vs Fernando Verdasco
Moneyline: Corentin Moutet, 2.50 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Think there is enough value to take him again here in this spot, one that Verdasco hasn't handled too well in this tournament and in general in 2019 where he lost all four of his Quarter Final matches. It seems like he is steadily declining and I am not sure what is motivation will be like. And for legal reasons it's probably not ideal to specify some of the other controversies surrounding some of his performances in the past.
Despite being less experienced i'll go with Moutet's form having to go through qualifying as well. He chased down every ball and fought hard for his points. Verdasco had some great ball striking against Krajinovic I don't trust him this heavily favoured. The young takes out the old here in my opinion.

ATP Doha 250, Mens Singles, QF
Stan Wawrinka vs Aljaz Bedene
Handicap: Stan Wawrinka -3.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

An ideal matchup for Stan going into this QF against an opponent who prefers to play on the clay surface. I can't see Bedene troubling Stan much, and it seems like based off results in 2019 Stan has recovered well from his injury set backs and is looking to put himself back in the contenders conversation. I expect Stan to continue his dominance both here and against his opponent.

**nuxx??** · 01-10-20, 07:08 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

11 - 13 - 1 (+0.099u)

ATP Cup, Mens Singles, QF
Spain vs Belgium
David Goffin vs Rafael Nadal
Moneyline: David Goffin, 8.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Last few Nadal matches haven't exactly been easy wins and now with a lot more on the line it'll be interesting to see how opponents go. As we saw earlier today Denis Shapovalov took it to Djokovic before coming short and Schwartzman also made it a tight contest with Medvedev. Not suggesting the same will happen but there is enough value for my liking to take Goffin as I've seen him improve in every match he's played against Nadal. And he's already played some pretty physical players here at the ATP Cup in preparation for that. If Belgium are able to tie it up 1-1 they'll like their chances in the doubles and Goffin will I think give it his best shot to make that happen.

Was on it as well. Nice hit

**stepaside777** · 01-10-20, 07:40 AM

same. we all take wawa? I'm having doubts

**Jeff_Black** · 01-10-20, 06:25 PM

14 - 13 - 1 (+10.601u)

ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Alex Bolt vs Lloyd George Harris
Moneyline: Alex Bolt, 2.40 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Alex Bolt had one of the best summers in 2019, he had it to the 3R of the Australian Open in 2019 (beating Gilles Simon on the way) and is looking to try and defend those points as best he can. He looks like he has recovered from the injury set backs he had late last year to try and reach the main draw of the Australian Open. He has a good opportunity to try and go as far as he can in Adelaide and from what I have read he is motivated to give it a go. His serve should bounce on this surface and if he can take advantage of that he should be in with a shot. Harris was uninspiring in his ATP Cup matches and has had a lot of his challengers success in Africa before winning some titles in the States. He seems to do better in Europe/The States so it will be interesting to see how he responds but I think there is clearly some uncertainty with how likely he is to win.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-10-20, 06:58 PM

ATP Cup, Mens Singles, SF
Serbia vs Russia
Dusan Lajovic vs Karen Khachanov
Moneyline: Dusan Lajovic, 3.79 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Some serious drifting going on with the odds making, but that's okay. He's been reliable here in the ATP Cup and he's also drawn from his experience playing at Davis Cup level showing he can perform outside of clay as well, beating some decent players in the process. I think there is enough overs on the opposition to make this a worthwhile play.
Khachanov has also played well here but he's shown lapses of concentration where other opponents have failed to take advantage of. Lajovic has a different style to the guys Khachanov has played and this style has helped him obtain a 2-0 h2h so far.
Think there is enough value to hope for an upset and give his country a 1-0 lead in this tie.