2020 (and some of 2019) Tennis Season Picks & Analysis

[Jeff_Black]

30 - 28 - 4 (+16.291u)

Bit sloppy today, but we'll work on it.

ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, QF
Alex Bolt vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Set Handicap: Felix Auger Aliassime -1.5 Sets, 2.24 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

In a similar situation to yesterday the talent level between the players isn't really in the same stratosphere. The odds were better buying low on Felix but he won that despite an average serving game. Bolt, like Duckworth is an erratic hitter with about a similar poor mental game. Taking the odds while they continue to be good.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Auckland 250, Mens Singles, QF
Feliciano Lopez vs Hubert Hurkacz
Set Handicap: Hubert Hurkacz -1.5 Sets, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Going with Hurkacz's form in this matchup as he has built up a nice stack of wins after resting inbetween the ATP Cup and Auckland. Lopez had to play two three sets in the space of 24 hours after constant rain delays which has not been the most ideal preparation for the 38 year old despite having an amazing run of health over his tennis career. He can be a tricky matchup if his serve is on a bow but I think Hurkacz continues to get things done.

[Jeff_Black]

31 - 29 - 4 (+16.531u)

ATP Auckland 250, Mens Singles, SF
John Isner vs Ugo Humbert
Total Games: Over 26 Games, 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, SF
Tommy Paul vs Lloyd George Harris
Handicap: Tommy Paul -1.5, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Chiefs83]

Took Paul +240 live if win will follow isner bet

[Jeff_Black]

Seems like Isner's poor returning caught up to him in this match.

ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, SF
Andrey Rublev vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Set Handicap: Andrey Rublev -1.5 Sets, 2.31 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

Having a chance to watch these guys play a few matches, I feel Rublev will be too good for Felix. Felix has played locals who usually really on the kindness of TA to get wildcards in Bolt and Duckworth and for anyone who gets to watch them on TV (usually in January) there are reasons why they aren't regulars on the ATP Tour. He did have a hiccup against Evans but Evans has played some solid tennis so I can forgive that a bit. If Felix serves as poorly as he did against Duckworth and to a lesser extent Bolt then it will be a rude awakening for him.

[Jeff_Black]

31 - 32 - 4 (+11.531u)

ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, Final
Andrey Rublev vs Lloyd George Harris
Handicap: Andrey Rublev -3.5, 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: 4u play

Definately one of the matches of the year for mine that Rublev and Auger-Aliassime Semi Final. The kid played well. Felt like the momentum shifted when Rublev netted that volley at 4-2 in the second set tiebreak. If he did it would have likely been too much for Auger-Aliassime to come back from. But it was a fantastic spectacle for the newly returned tournament. Probably should have closed out the game sooner but a lot of the points I felt were out of his control anyway.
It was definately a different level played to the other Semi Final. Harris will have to rely on his serving more then Rublev who is a much better mover and defender. Even though Rublev played a long Semi Final, Harris' has spent a lot of time on court as well playing the extra round one match as well as qualifying. I think it comes to an end for him here.

[Jeff_Black]

32 - 32 - 4 (+15.067u)

Few Australian Open plays that I've been eyeing since draw/odds came out. So here we go.

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Steve Johnson vs Roger Federer
Total Games: Under 28 Games, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Steve Johnson has a tough first assignment coming up and despite winning a Challenger Title in Bendigo the bookies are giving him no respect, which is understandable considering his draw consisted of players you would find on the Challenger Circuit. They have played before on hard courts in a close encounter, which was in the US and seems to have favoured Johnson. He should not really pose a threat to Federer on both ends here in Melbourne, and would need to heavily rely on his serve to keep this close. Stroke for stroke Federer has too many tricks up his sleeve to make this one somewhat close.
Federer hasn't really played an official tune up tournament, but he doesn't really need to. Plenty of times he has just strolled on to the court and won these sorts of matches in three comfortable sets and I expect the same again. Despite what he says in the media he's already looking ahead to Round 2, heh.

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Gilles Simon vs Pablo Cuevas
Handicap: Gilles Simon -4.5, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

This is a matchup that favours Simon well in my opinion despite his lack of matches so far in 2020. Cuevas has not fared much better despite unexpectedly beating Reilly Opelka, a server. Simon is much more then a server, who will be a tricky opponent with his arsenal of mixed slice/flat shots and serve/volleying game. He also has not had much luck at the Australian Open only making it past the first round once in the last seven years. Cuevas has been too loose and struggled with his serve against good returners and I think Simon will present that challenge to him.

[Conqueror]

Cuevas winning 2 tiebreakers against Opelka qualifies for the 8th wonder of the world!

[Jeff_Black]

Cuevas winning 2 tiebreakers against Opelka qualifies for the 8th wonder of the world!

Yeah I think it’s the Isner Syndrome of making your opponents serve look good lol.

[Jeff_Black]

Probably should have mentioned it at the start of the thread but I always prefer to take bookies that pay out after the first set if a player returns. Don't mind the risk as when you take dogs outright more often like I do there is a chance a favourite could retire when they're down. That happened at the US Open when Dellien was up two sets to one ( I think) and the opponent retired. He was 8/1 on the ML.

Time to get the party started

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Hubert Hurkacz vs Dennis Novak
Total Games: Over 37.5 Games, 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Hurkacz has had a solid start to 2020 in the ATP Cup but Dennis Novak has had some impressive matches. Both are big servers and both are hard hitters as well. Novak has shown that if you make mistakes and tighten up then he will pounce on them. He is also known at times not to take advantage of his opportunities. I can see this one having a tiebreak and both players winning a set.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Dan Evans vs Mackenzie McDonald
Total Games: Under 31.5 Games, 1.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Intitially this was one I was not that keen on but having the chance to review McDonald I am not convinced he would be a thread. I was a fan of him last year and many of you saw that but he has not played a lot at all since the French Open. He is a solid baseliner but Evans is as well and will mix up his shot making to beat him.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Jordan Thompson vs Alexander Bublik
Handicap: Alexander Bublik -1, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I think the odds are reflective of the home support Thompson is expected to get but despite his results in the past and here, his overall form in the majors has been poor and I think Bublik is the better talent and player out of the two. Bublik can be a bit inconsistent and can be hit or miss with his shots, but I think he can overpower Thompson behind his strong serving which he did show in his matches so far. Thompson also lost to more talented players in his warm up events and I don't see him winning this one.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Juan Ignacio Londero vs Grigor Dimitrov
Handicap: Juan Ignacio Londero +7, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I expect Dimitrov's experience to get him through this match even though Londero is an underrated Hard Court player, but prefers clay. He has been struggling with a small hand injury which I expect opponents to test in long rallies but he did get through his matches in the ATP Cup despite some struggles. He is known to tighten up a bit in matches and drop sets to inferior players and the Australian Open is one example of that. Londero has improved last year going on this and I expect that to show in this game.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Feliciano Lopez vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Total Games: Over 34.5 Games, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

This should be an interesting clash and may be not as straight forward as the odds indicate. Lopez has shown with his near effortless style if his serve is on (and being sharp playing doubles) so is his volleying then he can make life difficult for his opponents. Bautista for all his solid form and consistency is prone to dropping a set at times as well whether he drops is concentration or gets caught off guard depends on the situation. But if Lopez is able to force a tiebreak or two I can see errors in Bautista's game.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Mateo Berreteni vs Andrew Harris
Total Games: Under 30.5 Games, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Initially I had passed on this game, however I think the total is fine with me as while Berreteni has played something like a match or two at Kooyong I don't think he needs to be in sublime form to beat a Challenger level opponent who hasn't shown much anywhere else let alone here in Australia. I think his serve and forehand is solid enough to earn him a break in each set to get under the set total.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Marc Polmans vs Mikhail Kukushin
Moneyline: Marc Polmans, 3.25 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

This is more of a fade on the favourite playing an underdog at home who has had some okay results in the past in Australia. Kukushkin seems to perform better in Europe where he stunned Roberto Bautista Agut in Round one of the US Open last year (a play I was on), went to 5 sets with Cilic at the US Open before fading away and pushing Djokovic to five sets last year or the year before as well. But in Australia he has an atrocious record in Melbourne having not made the first round since 2012 (the only time in his career where he has). With the odds offered on the opponent I think there is enough value to take the outright win.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Marin Cilic vs Corentin Moutet
Moneyline: Corentin Moutet, 2.66 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

There will probably be a lot of love for the dog here, which is fine by me as Moutet has proven to be a frustrating player to play against with his versatile game being left handed, mixing up his spin and drop shots. He also has a solid serve behind him. Cilic relies on rhythm with the way he hits the ball flat and struggled in his ATP cup matches against Dennis Novak (who had to qualify for the AO) and Zuk who was ranked 400 odd something. Then he lost to Pella who has become somewhat of a bogey player for him. Maybe Cilic is saving himself for the AO but his form hasn't quite been up to scratch for me to indicate that.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Diego Sebastien Schwartzman vs Lloyd George Harris
Moneyline: Lloyd George Harris, 4.11 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Understandably the seed who has done okay here the past few years is more heavily favoured and there is some doubt Harris with a days rest may struggle to back up his form. However I think he will be find so long as his serve game is solid which it wasn't against Rublev. He is younger and less experienced then his opponent but I am interested to see how Schwartzman handles his height as he is prone to struggling in long matches. With the odds on hand i'll take the youngsters confidence.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Radu Albot vs Milos Raonic
Moneyline: Radu Albot, 4.65 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Albot may not give a lot of confidence for the casual person who does not follow all the players, but he is a consistent guy who can serve well and cause troubles for the Canadian who has shown his form is not where it should be to compete in best of 5 sets where these big guys can get worn down. His returning wasn't quite good enough and as an unseeded floater in the draw Albot has proven he can get upsets.

[Jeff_Black]

As I type this the information at hand is there may be a fair bit of rain that can cause havoc so if you don't want your money tied up I'd bet on only the games under a roof.

Worth keeping track the turnarounds for some of these guys who will eventually have to back up.

[Wesley]

bol for the first Grand Slam of the year

[Jeff_Black]

bol for the first Grand Slam of the year

Cheers you too!

[Goat Milk]

I think it's dangerous to bet against Cilic in the majors. He's an older player and doesn't care about those other petty tournaments. I see too many people being down on him. Rhythm doesn't really mean much in a best of 5 match. You can find your rhythm easily in a match that long. Cilic has a much better serve than this kid too. I don't see it.

[Conqueror]

Albot is actually one of my upset candidates even though I couldn't muster the courage to make it a play. GL!

One spread I find interesting is Caruso +2.5 sets (+232). Caruso is a dogged fighter. I think he can muster enough effort to still a set from Tsitsipas.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah I wasn't sold on Tsitsipas after his last few Grand Slams efforts though to be fair he ran into an in form Rublev at the US. He played solid enough based on the quality of opponent.

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Dominic Thiem vs Adrian Mannarino
Total Games: Under 32.5 Games, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Thiem has had a less then spectacular start to 2019 as well as being less then spectacular in Australia, but he has shown that he can play on Hard Courts, winning in Indian Wells and making the Final of London where he beat Djokovic and Federer in the process.
But this is a bad matchup against Mannarino whos flat hitting with some angles style of tennis does not penetrate Thiem's baseline game at all. He does not have the groundstrokes or the endurance to keep up and I think he will struggle to keep up with Thiem on serve who's also far better in that regard. The slower Melbourne surface should play nicely into Thiem's hands in this match up.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Kevin Anderson vs Illya Ivashka
Total Games: Under 36 Games, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I was encouraged from what I saw in Anderson in his ATP Cup matches. In comparison to playing players who compete on the ATP Tour every week which included the best returner in the world I expect his forehand and serve to be more harder to break down. Ivashka did a good job to qualify into the main draw but I think Anderson will be too much to handle for him in this match.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Damir Dzuhmur vz Stan Wawrinka
Handicap: Damir Dzuhmur +7, 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

After being burned by Londero not covering the same line I had to think twice about deciding this one and it's a different scenario now that Stan is a bit of a different beast in comparison to this time last year. While Stan is always considered a dark horse for the slams it is often the early rounds where he struggles the most before finding his peak form, and Damir is a tricky enough opponent who can bring it against these name players to exploit those potential struggles, I think.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Christopher O Connell vs Andrey Rublev
Total Games: Under 30 Games, 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Rublev has started 2020 with an 8-0 and I think he continues that relatively comfortable again. The dangers of guys who have played a lot of games was seen when Shapovalov lost to Fuscovics and was incredibly frustrated by it but Rublev has shown he can mentally hang in there when things are not going his way. That and Fuscovics is a dangerous opponent as seen in Doha at times. Chris O Connell is actually a step down from the level of competition Rublev has had in Adelaide/Doha and he probably hasn't played anyone close to Rublev's level on his Futures and Challengers tournaments last year.
Impressive as it has been that he has been able to chip away at his ranking provided Rublev does not wake up on the wrong side of the bed it's hard to see him dropping his level in this one on roughly 3 days rest or so.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Soonwoo Kwon
Handicap: Nikoloz Basilashvili -3.5, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Basilashvili didn't have a great ATP Cup but the calibre of his opponents was tougher then the opponent he will be playing. I expect his style of unpredictable hard hitting tennis to be too much for the young Korean and even if he can keep up I don't think it can be for the duration of 3-4 sets.


Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Taylor Fritz vs Taillor Griekspoor
Total Games: Under 35.5 Games, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Taylor Fritz was dealt a tough R1 opponent in Lopez at the US Open who beat him and I think the level between these two guys is big enough to make me feel confident he can get the job done comfortably here. Griekspoor did a good job to qualify but I've seen enough improvement in Fritz to think he will be too much to a step up in comparison to the opposition he's faced.

[leetreaper]

Manna is a decent player, dont like the under

[nuxx??]

I think theres value on Lord Gulbis tomorrow. FAA too inconsistent.

[Wesley]

Too many unders imo....Rublev could easily lose a set vs. local O'Connell

[Jeff_Black]

I think it's dangerous to bet against Cilic in the majors. He's an older player and doesn't care about those other petty tournaments. I see too many people being down on him. Rhythm doesn't really mean much in a best of 5 match. You can find your rhythm easily in a match that long. Cilic has a much better serve than this kid too. I don't see it.

Yeah it was men against boys today, seems like the ATP Cup took a lot out of the younger kids and Cilic struggled against less talented guys there but bought his A game here. Whether it continues against someone better will be an interesting watch.

[Jeff_Black]

I think theres value on Lord Gulbis tomorrow. FAA too inconsistent.

Passed mainly because I wasn’t sure what Gulbis would bring today but he looks to be up to the task at the moment from what I’ve seen.

[Jeff_Black]

Too many unders imo....Rublev could easily lose a set vs. local O'Connell

Possibly if Rublev is sluggish which at times he’s looked a little but he’s played far better players in his 8-0 run and didn’t get broken much even at times when he saved break points (a bit of good fortune I’ll admit in some)
His opponent played nearly 80 matches without many breaks on Futures and Challengers so it’s not like only Rublev has played a lot of tennis either.
The best caliber players he’s played is Gus like Mmoh and Johnson and Rublev is a much bigger step up in quality of opponents.

I had a similar feeling of staying of Berreteni but for similar reasons and not just cause he played one match at Koojong the levels are just too different.

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Jo Wilfred Tsonga vs Alexi Popyrin
Set Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -2.5, 3.58 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Vasek Pospisil vs Ivo Karlovic
Set Handicap: Vasek Pospisil -2.5, 2.51 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[nuxx??]

Gulbis is still +250 live, what the actual penetrate. Still so much value, he's the better player.

[Jeff_Black]

He’s got a sweet draw going forward, either Duckworth or Bedene next.
Good win if he holds it off.

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Federico Delbonis vs Joao Sousa
Money line: Joao Sousa, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[nuxx??]

He’s got a sweet draw going forward, either Duckworth or Bedene next.
Good win if he holds it off.

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Federico Delbonis vs Joao Sousa
Money line: Joao Sousa, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Completely mispriced

BOL on your plays, tailing Tsonga.

[Jeff_Black]

Completely mispriced
BOL on your plays, tailing Tsonga.

Thanks, looks like he was hurt, unfortunate for him.

Not particularly thrilled with the way Kyrgios is playing...

[Jeff_Black]

Too many unders imo....Rublev could easily lose a set vs. local O'Connell

Very easily it seems!

Definately a bit drunk from Saturday night apparently.

[Jeff_Black]

40 - 43 - 4 (+11.819u)

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R2
Sam Querrey vs Ricardis Berankis
Set Handicap: Sam Querrey -2.5, 2.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R2
Guido Pella vs Gregoire Barerre
Money line: Gregorio Barrett, 2.82 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R2
Marton Fuscovics vs Janik Sinner
Money line: Marton Fuscovics, 2.08 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[leetreaper]

Querrey in straights??? wow///

[Jeff_Black]

41 - 44 - 4 (+10.899u)

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R2
Aljaz Bedene vs Ernest Gulbis
Money line: Ernests Gulbis, 2.67 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R2
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Fernando Verdasco
Money line: Nikoloz Basilashvili, 2.40 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Taylor Fritz vs Kevin Anderson
Money line: Taylor Fritz, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Conqueror]

Tailing Gulbis.
BOL!

[Conqueror]

Congrats on Gulbis! Wondering what Gulbis -2.5 sets was.

[Jeff_Black]

Congrats on Gulbis! Wondering what Gulbis -2.5 sets was.

Thanks. It's not often the books get their odds making completely wrong but that was a good example of it.

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R2
David Goffin vs Pierre -Hugues Herbert
Handicap: David Goffin -7, 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R2
Peter Gojowczyk vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Moneyline: Peter Gojowczyk, 4.55 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play