I placed a handful of futures on the singles tournaments with the intention of hedging once we got to the fourth round. 3 of the 5 lost in the 4th, and my hedges returned BE to 1 unit.
My 2 that are left are Bencic (+4000) and Andreescu (+1400). What should be a best case scenario (if they play each other in the semis) is turning into kind of a nightmare. They are both short favorites to win in the quarters.
I hedged by laying ~4 units on Osaka (-220), and 1 on Townsend (+330).
To truly hedge the quarters, I'd need to bet another 4 units against Bencic and ~1.5 against Andreescu.
Obviously you'd want to let both ride in the semis were they to meet. But at that point I'd be -9 units on Bencic and -3.5 on Andreescu. If Andreescu wins, I'm out -12.5 units with no room to lock in a profit in the final, especially if she's facing Serena.
Apologies - I'm new at this kind of betting. So is the lesson not to hedge so early? I thought waiting until the 4th round, I could surely carve off a piece of a 40-1 shot. Any advice on how to proceed from here?
Maybe because if they both advance, I'm guaranteed to "lose" on one of my futures and have the other to play with in the final, I should aim to minimize my investment this round? Obviously, if they both get upset this round, I'd lose some money.
It would feel pretty ridiculous to have one of my futures make the final and lose money.
Yes, guaranteed to have a finalist, but whoever wins, if she faces Serena, will be such a big dog I won't be able to lock in much profit.
I didn't hedge their quarterfinals, so I'm in for about 8.5 units on the two of them. The Osaka hedge was stupid in hindsight.
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