Interesting looking day today. Expecting the Hewitt-Baghdatis match to be the most heavily bet today. Otherwise the men's side has substantial favorites playing today that aren't worth a look at the prices. I think Kubot might be worth the bomb today at +300 if it gets there. Youzhny played real well in Round 2, but it's still Youzhny. Almagro-Falla intrigues me and is one I will play after researching most likely. WTA side can eat it.
1.21.10 AUSTRALIAN OPEN 3rd ROUND: Nicolas Almagro -140 (Falla) An intriguing match-up this evening in the 3rd round of the Australian Open as Spaniard Nicolas Almagro takes on Colombian Alejandro Falla. Falla might be considered a little of a surprise to be this far at a Grand Slam, but his draw was pretty well set-up to get him here. The Colombian hasn't dropped a set yet, beating Marcos Daniel 7-5,6-3,6-1 and then ousting Robin Soderling conquerer, Marcel Granollers in round two by a scoreline of 6-4,6-1,6-3. Falla has just been a model of consistency, not having an overwhelming serve, yet winning 80% of the points off his 1st serve in the 1st round and 74% in the 2nd round. He's done well to take advantage of numerous break point opportunities off his opponents' rackets so far, cashing in 13 of 28. That also shows you that his opponents thus far haven't exactly been stellar competition. Almagro meanwhile has done things the hard way through two rounds. He took two set to none leads in both rounds before coughing those leads up in both. Ultimately, he rallied and saved face with 5th set wins in both against Xavier Malisse and Benjamin Becker. Almagro, unlike Falla, does possess a serve that is a definite weapon. He has 32 aces off his serve and has won 76% of the points off his first serve. Almost as important, the Spaniard's 2nd serve has been a winner for 59% of the points in Round 1 and 67% in Round 2. Almagro did a beautiful job of not giving Becker many opportunities to break his serve, just two after giving up just 9 break point opportunities in round one. Both are solid, solid numbers for a five set match. In looking at these two, both have a ton of matches under their belts at Grand Slams. The main difference though is that Falla has far less main draw experience than his counterpart today. Almagro is making his sixth straight 3rd round appearance at a Slam, the one downer being that he's only made it past this point once. That was a quarterfinal appearance at the French Open in 2008. Falla though has never been to this point before and his game is definitely much more suited to clay although he is 3-2 on the hard court surface in 2010 with two wins at the Australian Open and a win over Jeremy Chardy in Brisbane. The intrigue to me lies with Falla's left handed delivery. Almagro has not been good against southpaws in his career at just 9-20 and 2-8 in his last 10 matches vs. lefties. Take in account though that 8 of those losses have come at the hands of Rafael Nadal and Fernando Verdasco and his mark of 9-12 is a little less suspicious. Almagro has enjoyed mix success on hard courts, being better suited as well to clay. The one huge advantage that Almagro may have in this one is his experience playing that 5th set as this one looks as if it could be competitive. Almagro has won his last 6 matches that were decided in the 5th set with those all coming at Grand Slam events. Almagro has been getting out of the gates fast in the first rounds and I think he needs to continue with that. While Falla may have belief that he can beat Almagro no matter the score because of the first two rounds here, it might weight more on a player as this tournament gets deeper and deeper. I think there is a threshold though at which you should consider Almagro in this one and it's really right at it currently at -160. I think if the price creeps to -170 or more, it's more of a no play situation on Almagro. I still believe he will be the victor this evening, but to minimize your risk - especially in tennis - it's better to avoid the match at that price. I'll be waiting until close to the cut off time to see what happens to the price, hoping that some will jump on Falla at the dog price, which I believe will happen.
Funny how things work. Almagro f*cked me on my Malisse bet early in the tournament, but has been my cash cow the other two rounds. Easy straight sets win yesterday as he finally got his crap together. Monster faves again on the men's side today. The Cilic-DelPo match will be the most wager on as a result because the lines offer better value I think. Cilic has been bought down a lot already since the opening number I saw at Pinnacle. I don't see the price drifting a lot from the range it seems to be in now, DelPo -170 or so, Cilic +170 or so. Gotta research that one. DelPo has won both head-2-heads at Grand Slam events, but I'll be looking for relevant wrist info on DelPo today.
Isner might be worth the big pop today against Murray. I had Murray going to the semis, but Isner is playing some ridiculously good tennis and the fact that they've never met before could help him steal a set early and make it a good match. WTA side, too many Russian vs. Russian matches that will drive you crazy in the end. One I would (crazy) think about if the public over-values Petrova's win against Clijsters is Kuznetsova at anything around -135 or less. That's agreat price and she's owned Petrova.
Great observation about Isner and Murray never having met before. I didn't even think about that and you're right, that totally plays into Isner's favor.
looks like Isner is finally training like a pro athlete. really impressed with his improvement. has the height and power of an NBA star and I always thought if he would train to move like one, he would be really incredible.
1.23.10
AUSTRALIAN OPEN: Marin Cilic +165 (Del Potro) A highly anticipated showdown in the 4th round at Melbourne as Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro battles Croat Marin Cilic for a spot in the quarterfinals. DelPo has been anything but convincing in getting to this point in the tournament. The Argentine struggled mightily with errors in the 2nd round before outlasting James Blake 10-8 in the 5th set. In the 3rd round, he was bageled 6-0 by Florian Mayer in the 2nd before battling to a tight 4 set win. What is troubling to me is that Del Potro has won just 15 more points that his three opponents in the 1st three rounds here. Considering he has just one five set match in those three rounds, that means he has really been having troubles with his consistency. Cilic meanwhile bounced back with a solid performance in the 3rd round against Stanislas Wawrinka after an epic 5 set win over Australian teen, Bernard Tomic. Against Wawrinka, Cilic showed his superior class after dropping the opening set. He then went on to knockout the Swiss 6-4,6-3,6-3 in the next three sets. His serve has excellent, winning 83% off his 1st serve and a decent, 47% off his second. He cashed in 5 of the 10 break opportunities presented to him by Wawrinka, which was a big key. Cilic also pounded the Swiss' 2nd serve, winning 55% of the points and doing a decent job against the 1st serve at 25%. In that match alone, Cilic had 14 points more than his opponent, coupled with 40 more than Tomic and Santoro in the first two rounds. His play has been much more even than Del Potro's to this point. These two are meeting for the third time with the two previous meetings also coming at Grand Slams. Cilic won the opening set both times when they met at last year's U.S. Open and Australian Open. Del Potro then was able to right the ship and roll in 4 sets. One of Cilic's main faults against Del Potro has been his inability to fend off break points. He only saved 4 of the 18 break opps he provided the Argentine with. Conversely, Del Potro saved 15 of 18 in those two matches. Cilic must also better use his serve as a major weapon today if he hopes to advance. Against DelPo in those two prior match-ups, the Argentine was able to win 45% of the points off Cilic's serve at the U.S. Open and over 35% at the Australian Open in 2009. Cilic cannot afford to let Del Potro do the same thing again. This is the 3rd straight 4th round appearance for Cilic at the Australian Open, but he's never advanced further. Del Potro made the quarters last year by beating Cilic and then was rudely dismissed by Federer in straights. Del Potro's play to this point is reason enough to worry about backing him at a heavy favorite's tag against a legitimate threat like Cilic. The health concerns with DelPo's wrist look continually warranted as his unforced errors have been high in each match. He made 46 against Mayer and 51 against Blake. Cilic cut his in half from the 67 he had in the 2nd round against Tomic with just 35 against Wawrinka. More of the same would do him a world of good. Should this match go deep to a 5th set, both players have proven that they can win in a deciding 5th set on the big stage with Cilic winning 5 of 7 in the 5th set at Grand Slams, while DelPo is 3-2, having won against Federer to clinch the US Open and against Blake earlier in this tournament. That means in a match where the better player has injury concerns, you go with the better price in Cilic and if he brings his "A" game, he may get his first QF appearance at a Slam today. I think anything above +150 on Cilic is a solid wager for this match today.
AUSTRALIAN OPEN: John Isner +550 (Murray) At this price, quite simply I have to take a flyer. Murray has mowed down his opponents so far - but Serra, Gicquel & Kevin Anderson are nothing close to the quality he will see this evening against John Isner. I have to admit, I thought Monfils would outlast Isner in the last round, but came away impressed that Isner now has a pretty solid ground game to go with that huge serve. That is a formula that can keep him competitive against most players on tour. He's no longer a one trick pony like Karlovic with only the serve to survive on. Now, he can serve and volley. Perhaps as important, his fitness showed to be a bit stronger than I thought with how he came back against Monfils after looking thoroughly gassed at the end of the previous round despite winning in straights. Murray certainly has the return skills needed against Isney and the all-around defense to make the big man work, but Murray has been prone to having flat matches out of nowhere. Th Hopman Cup this year showing that after he whipped Golubev, Kohlschreiber & Andreev (losing just 10 games) - he lost in 3 to Tommy Robredo on a hard surface. Last year's straight sets loss to Marin Cilic also rings out as another example. Neither has been past this point in the Australian Open and Murray certainly has more pressure with each Grand Slam that passes where he doesn't consistently get to semifinals or finals - whereas Isner seems to be enjoying the moment, full of confidence and playing with nothing to lose. I think the lack of match play between the two could work in better favor of Isner as well as Murray will have to adjust to playing the taller, power server. That means Isner needs to win early and establish belief. At this huge price, Isner is worthy of a play.
Goal for the day is simple with these two - get at least one and you get a profit on these two plays. Simple formula, hopefully one of these boys comes through!
Don't have the games handicap option at the book I'm at currently. I don't think the Tsonga-Almagro match is going to be much different than Tsonga-Haas as far as a result and Almagro may not even get a set. Problem with Almagro on hard courts against a power player like Tsonga is that he's pretty unlikely to break him much, while Tsonga will likely have his shots. As far as the handicap, I'd say +7 or more and Almagro might be a decent play. Even if he gets straighted out, I can see him keeping it around 6-8 games for three sets. Losing 7-5 or 6-4 in some and maybe getting to a tie break.
Zvonareva got to the semis last year,and azarenka had serena on the ropes before retiring due to the heat...I
So the motivation factor is about even.
IMO I have to take the value and Zv..
I just posted in Stacocake's thread, something real sketchy about that line between Zvonareva-Azarenka. With the history between the two (4-0 Zvonareva), the line seems like it should be lower and closer to a pick 'em.
1.24.10
AUSTRALIAN OPEN 4th ROUND: Fernando Verdasco/Nikolay Davydenko 1st Set OVER 9.5/10 (+120) The temperature today could be fairly warm, 80 degrees F forecast for the high, which means the on-court temperature will be 10-15 degrees higher. That should help make the surface quicker and if Verdasco can get his 1st serves cooking, could lead to some good service games for the Spaniard. Davydenko's serve isn't a potent weapon, but it can be solid and his 2nd serve especially has been a big factor when these two have met in the past. I like this one because Verdasco has to establish "belief" early in this match based on their past meetings and there's no better way then to come out humming on-serve. Certainly, if either player is flat, then this one could be way off. But I think the quality of the first set should be high. If both players take care of their service games, then I'd expect a late break to make the difference and think a 6-4 1st set or perhaps even better for this one (7-5 or 7-6) could be on tap.
Meh. Verdasco started strong and then his serve just fell apart. Something like 32% on getting in 1st serves for the set. That is just awful. Daydenko pretty much just let him beat himself and that didn't take much work. 6-2 Davydenko in the 1st.
1.25.10 AUSTRALIAN OPEN QUARTERFINALS: Nadia Petrova +195 (Henin) The first rule of tennis betting is never trust Russians. The second rule of tennis betting is NEVER TRUST RUSSIANS. So then why does Nadia Petrova with the Russianess one could ask for look so tasty at odds closing in on +200? Time and situation are where I'll start. Let's see. First, she is playing perhaps the best tennis of her career. Secondly, she is putting her considerable physical talents together with much improved mental strength. Petrova's last match was a fantastic example as she got rolled in the opening set against fellow Russian, Svetlana Kuznetsova, only yo get buried 6-3 in the second. Most followers of the WTA would have expected Petrova to crumble. Low and behold, she didn't just perservere over Kuznetsova, she slammed the door shut 6-1 in the 3rd set. A third reason as to why Petrova offers a solid shot, situation. She comes in with a definitive freshness advantage over Henin. Let's break down Nadia to this point. Petrova has been solid on serve, winning better than 69% of her first serve points in each of the four rounds thus far at the Australian Open. Her second serve has been dependable, winning 45% of the point or better in each match. Both numbers would be plenty good enough to compete and upset Justine Henin this evening. Petrova has been deadly in converted break points this tournament, breaking her opponents in 19 of 36 opportunites. Justine Henin has been this tournament's feel good story, gaining a quarterfinal appearance with gritty wins over Dementieva, Kleybanova and Wickmayer. That though may be wearing on her in her first Grand Slam back from retirement as she has been on the court for well over two hours in each of those three matches. Henin's serve is a huge concern for her heading into this match as she has allowed for 45 break opportunities in her four matches in Melbourne. She did improve drastically on this number against Wickmayer in the 4th round with just four break opportunities, but that came on the heels of 13 opportunities given to Kleybanova and a whopping 19 to Dementieva. To her credit, she has saved all but 13 of the 45 break points allowed. Still, against someone who comes in converted at almost 50% on their opponents, Henin must be sharper on her serve. Where Henin has made her opponents pay if by converting their break points, cashing in on 21 of 39 through the tournament to-date. Henin's double faults will be key to her having a chance as she's done it 25 times, but has yet to fully pay for them. Henin is the sentimental favorite here, but the price is staggering for someone who looks to be wearing down with this many matches in a row and some sort of leg issue. Petrova is not immune to this level, having made semifinal appearances at the French Open twice. This matches her best performance at a hard court Slam and she may not get a better opportunity to get to a semifinal than tonight. Consider that Petrova gave Henin all she could handle in her first match back with a 7-5, 7-5 loss in Brisbane. Henin's serve was tremendous that day, winning 90% of the points off first serve and 65% on second. Petrova played solid tennis, but offered up too many break points (Henin converted 3/9). The Belgian is 11-2 all-time versus Petrova, but it should be noted one of those wins was at the U.S. Open back in 2004. The games of both have certainly progressed and changed since that time, but from a mental aspect - Petrova should have plenty of confidence heading into this one despite the lopsided record. Both may possess the ability to bounce back from losing a set, but I think it will be a huge advantage if Petrova comes out firing and takes the 1st set. Any fatigue Henin has both mentally and physically would come into play knowing she'd have to win two sets in a row and as fine a competitor and great a champion as she has been, it will be asking a lot of her to do so. Russians have also had solid success getting at least one entrant into the semifinals of the women's draw at the Australian Open with at least one Russian getting there in five straight tries, including last year when three of the four semifinalists were from Russia. The formula for me is simple if Petrova is to have a shot here: Serve well (winning 65% or better on 1st serves/45% or better on 2nd), Convert at least 30-35% of the break opportunities she sees off Henin and make Henin work in rallies when possible to make her prove her fitness. If Petrova does all three, I firmly believe she will win and if she does 2/3 in those categories, she still might have a shot to steal it tonight
Not "official" on the other matches tonight, but Roddick, Nadal and Zheng are my picks. Roddick I'd need to see below -150 to firm up on it, but I believe his experience gives him the edge. Cilic was still shaky in beating Del Potro who was obviously wounded with injury or pressure of following up his US Open Championship and still nearly had the match turned in his favor. Nadal at anything plus odds has to be the bet there as that is a toss-up and you go for the better odds always. Zheng is under the radar. Keep an eye on the first match, if Petrova loses, might think about Kirilenko - it's stupid, but a Russian has made the semis on the ladies side since 2005.
This might be another night to take two dogs and look for some profit. I think if you take Petrova and Kirilenko, you should get a return on your bets.
Her 2nd serve blows. Henin's has been better. Otherwise, she's done well on the break points, but has offered up too many of her own to be effective. Still battling, but I have a feeling unless she can get a break, Henin will get another win in the tie break. Will be going on Kirilenko for the Russian Roulette P.O.T.D. Going with history of Russians gettting to the semis here, knowing they are more likely to bone me on that instead and not in the fun, I'd like to bone Kirilenko way.
Keep betting plus money odds and you can come out okay. Taking the big chalk will kill you in the long run. Of course if Kirilenko loses tonight, then going 0-2 doesn't mean crap - does it?
1.27.10
AUSTRALIAN OPEN: Henin/Zheng Total Games OVER 20.5 (-110)
Both are tough, but I think if Henin is too advance, she'll have to battle through fatigue and some tough times on her service games again. Could be done in two tight sets, better off and more likely in three.
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