EP36's Tennis Talk

vinnysantos · 07-05-10, 06:00 AM

good call EP

Rainman12 · 07-05-10, 08:24 AM

nice hit with santonja!

EaglesPhan36 · 07-05-10, 08:38 AM

BROWN -146
Jamaican Dustin Brown draws Bjorn Phau, who has never been good on grass. He's never won a main draw match on the surface at the ATP level and lost his only two matches on the surface this year in qualis at Wimbledon in straight sets. Brown is a talent, but he's transitioning back from clay where he got beat last week. He acquitted himself decently enough this year on grass with a 3-3 mark and even took a set off Melzer at Wimbledon. Brown is a little raw still on this surface, but he's got one weapon Phau cannot match and that is a blistering serve. Not quite sure how fast this grass surface is playing, but the weather in Newport, R.I. calls for warm temps and relatively low humidity which should keep the grass dryer. If Brown can serve well, I think he can take this. Again, don't go too big on these matches. Believe this one goes off at 11am ET.

laur01 · 07-05-10, 08:47 AM

hy what do you think about rochus against roger vasseline? i took rochus

EaglesPhan36 · 07-05-10, 09:33 AM

I think Rochus should probably win, but the price is nothing I would want to touch. The big plus for him is that Vasselin is in horrible form, but I'd rather use Rochus in a parlay with something rather than eat -230 on a single line, but that's just me.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-05-10, 12:22 PM

Looks like a lot of folks won Dustin Brown too.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-05-10, 12:35 PM

BECK -3 [-140]
Ryan Harrison, the "future" of American tennis is on display against the German, Karol Beck. What can I say, Harrison to me just does not consistently perform, especially in main draws on the ATP level. He played his first 5 grass matches ever in 2010 with a 2-3 mark. The two wins came on the Challenger level. Since those two wins, he is 0-3 and hasn't even been competitive for the most part. Beck seems to be finally fit after working back from a knee injury that saw his form drop off horribly from May until Wimbledon. He won his 1st rounder at Wimbledon and then played tough in losing to Monfils in four sets. He's got a ton more experience on the surface and Harrison comes to Newport having been drubbed last week on a hard court surface. Beck ML is -217 which is too much for me, but the handicap offers less risk with Beck having a shot to cover.

Tsonga · 07-05-10, 02:08 PM

i'm on the opposite for the beck/harrison...but i think it may go over...but I am going for Harrison to pull out the win...like you said - Beck has not been playing well and is 1-9 in his last ten...so i'll take the dog here.

Tsonga · 07-05-10, 03:00 PM

harrison got the first break...but i think there may be a few this match...up 3-1 right now.

Wilforth · 07-05-10, 03:04 PM

Beck will throw this game!

Tsonga · 07-05-10, 03:14 PM

6-1 harrison first set...my +3 is looking good at +121 or so...but the over 22.5 is not. be nice to see beck take this next set. otherwise i'm still up for the match...but not much.

JNic · 07-05-10, 03:15 PM

wow who saw that shot by harrison on set point, crazy

EaglesPhan36 · 07-05-10, 03:15 PM

Hoping Beck quits. This will be semi-funny if Harrison wins because I've taken him a ton of times as a big dog hoping he'd show his promise and the day I go against him, he's probably gonna roll. Just need like 6-0, 6-0.

Tsonga · 07-05-10, 03:35 PM

up 3-2 with a break...harrison needs to let Beck take a set for the experience.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-05-10, 03:42 PM

Harrison's got this. Good for him. Promising young player who needs to get some wins under his belt in main draws. I should have just been content with a couple wins today. Wanted to take Dancevic, but couldn't based on form and of course, he's looking good right now. Oh well, not a bad day in all.

Tsonga · 07-05-10, 04:10 PM

looks like rochus is back to his old tricks - down 3-0

Tsonga · 07-05-10, 04:34 PM

back on serve - i've got a lot of sbr points on a harrison/rochus parlay

Tsonga · 07-05-10, 05:51 PM

Rochus finished off the parlay for me...and gave everyone the over too by losing serve at 5-3.

beefcake · 07-05-10, 08:23 PM

Fish is fit as a fiddle,and +350 to win this..sign me up

EaglesPhan36 · 07-05-10, 09:20 PM

THURSDAY

PARLAY: QUERREY + FISH [-230]
It's still some chalk, but this seems solid. Querrey draws Levine whose last two losses on grass came to big servers in Feliciano Lopez and Michael Llodra. Querrey is the defending champ here and has played well on grass in 2010 with a 8-1 mark and a title. Fish comes to Newport looking to rebound from a disappointing Wimbledon where he lost in the 2nd round. Otherwise, his big serve should be suited to this grass surface and Fish should be excited about the prospects of a draw that could see him chasing his second grass court final this year. Russell is a bulldog who will fight hard, but his grass record is sub .500. Russell is just 1-3 on grass this season. As long as Fish's serve gets him some cheap points, he should move on.

beefcake · 07-05-10, 09:22 PM

Oh yeah congrats on the last few days hitting some plays! Been away with the fam for the holidays

EaglesPhan36 · 07-05-10, 09:33 PM

Thanks. Got the week started well after floundering at the weekend.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-05-10, 09:46 PM

STEPHENS +205
Sloane Stephens is one of America's up and coming tennis players in the junior ranks at the age of 17. She comes into the Bastad tournament on a roll. She made the QFs as an unseeded player in the Wimbledon Juniors tournament. Prior to that, she was playing well on clay [today's surface] with a finals appearance and a QF appearance at two ITF level events. Stephens also made the semis of the French Open juniors in 2009 as an unseeded player and the QFS in 2010. Her opponent Brianti is really hit or miss. She's 4-6 on clay this season and last year was more on the ITF level/fringe WTA main draw for clay. Brianti doesn't really have any great weapons, so it's a matter to me of what sort of focus she has here. I think Stephens as a wildcard entry will give it her best and she seems pretty adept at clay court tennis so far.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-05-10, 11:09 PM

NEWPORT FUTURES
The #1 seed has not been involved in the final since 2002 and has not won it in a decade. Top of the draw where #1 seed Sam Querrey is full of youngsters and Challenger types. There are some big servers though, so Querrey may still be pressed some. At +150, no point in taking Querrey. I'll go long shot up top, Olivier Rochus at +1400. He made the QFs last year and really has a draw that could get him potentially to the semis. Down bottom, as Beefcake said Fish looks strong. His QF opponent will likely be tougher than his SF opponent with Falla or Mahut likely to be the QF guy. If Fish is serving well this week, he should make the final. If not, Falla or Mahut could pick up the pieces.

O.Rochus +1550
Fish +425

beefcake · 07-06-10, 12:03 AM

Holy crap,look at all those challengers tommorrow,

Yuri Schulkin is playing a wildcard from the netherlands who has played 2 ITF matches and thats it,might be good for a parlay filler.
Junqueria is playing some stiff named smit,who is listed as inactive on the ATP website.

If either of these guys lose,Ill eat my hat...

laur01 · 07-06-10, 02:09 AM

fish+kleyabnova+dulgheru a good parlay for me

WalkingLuckCharm · 07-06-10, 08:06 AM

any thoughts on mahut vs falla game EP ?

EaglesPhan36 · 07-06-10, 08:19 AM

I love Mahut on grass, but I'm a little weary about him here because I think he's going to be a big public play based on the notoriety from the Isner marathon match. I think the one thing that stands out in these Newport matches are the totals. For the ones not involving the big names like Querrey or Fish, books are setting the totals high at 23.5. I think you can find some good UNDERs if you can figure out which matches present themselves that way. I'm still looking at a couple.

Wilforth · 07-06-10, 08:21 AM

I think Falla is gonna take that one. I also think Navarro will beat Ram.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-06-10, 08:42 AM

For anyone who believes in line movement a.k.a. the Money Train, Somdev Devvarman is your man in Newport. He went from close to +100 out to -125 against Kevin Kim. Could be something known about Kim or it could just be some crazy Indian bastard betting big on India's best player. This match looked like a coin flip. Kim is horrid. Devvarman rarely plays on grass and hasn't won but a single match on it in 7 tries.

Wilforth · 07-06-10, 08:44 AM

Devvarman is thought to be in better form.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-06-10, 08:52 AM

How is that? He's lost 4 of his last 5 matches.

Kim is 3-3 in his last 6. My point here is they both suck and this match really has no business being wagered on, so the line movement is suspicious.

shari91 · 07-06-10, 08:56 AM

I agree. That line has dropped significantly even from when I took my nap until now. Something is definitely going on there - there's no way anyone would be betting enough on Dev to impact the line like that in bloody Newport unless something is going on behind the scenes. In fact, without the line movement I would've taken Kim if forced to make a play.

shari91 · 07-06-10, 09:01 AM

The line is also dropping on Russell which pisses me off because I didn't put the play in before I went to sleep.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-06-10, 09:01 AM

MAHUT -155
What can I say, the guy on a grass surface has been a superb money maker and I can't stop going to the well. Falla in his own right is not bad on this surface and of course most who are going to be on him will do so because of the match against Federer at Wimbledon. I still think Federer was telling the truth about his injuries because you don't go from white washing a guy like Falla 6-1, 6-2 a couple weeks before and then struggle to put him away in five without some issues. That being said, the main reason I side with Mahut here is his serve. It is difficult to break when it's working where as Falla's serve doesn't provide as much pop and gives his opponents opportunities to break more often than not. This grass at Newport from what I have read and from past results, plays fast which should suit Mahut's serve.