EP36's Tennis Talk

[EaglesPhan36]

After dropping the 2nd 6-2, Smyczek smy-oked Phau 6-0!

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY

DJOKOVIC [-110]
I think there is a black hole forming above my head right now that will suck me into the abyss on this pick, but here we go. Certainly Berdych is the media darling after beating Federer in the quarterfinals and rightfully so in spite of whatever injuries Federer may or may not have been carrying. The thing to me is that most of the media has made Berdych to be in outstanding form at Wimbledon, while dousing Djokovic's run with skepticism. Certainly, Djokovic has been the beneficiary of some of the top seeds in his quarter faltering like Verdasco and Roddick, but he's beaten the opponents put in front of him. And more importanly, he has been serving pretty well at the All-England club. That was the knock on Djokovic coming in, but he has put that to rest so far. Now let's look at Berdych's road prior to Federer: Golubev, Becker, Istomin & Brands. Not exactly Murderer's Row either. I think the Federer win has drawn plenty of attention to Berdych and may in fact work into Djokovic's favor because despite being the higher ranked player, I don't think he's generally being thought of as the favorite to advance. That should alleviate some of the pressure that Djokovic would probably put on himself in this position. For me, this match is about who plays loose and free. Berdych has the big ground strokes and solid serve, although his first serve percentage is still troubling at 60% or less. Djokovic probably moves and defends better than Berdych, but lacks quite as much pop on his serve. He has also been in the low 60s on first serve, so the 2nd serve for both is going to be a huge key. The two stats to watch in this match - unforced errors and break point conversions. Whoever winds up on the right side of those two categories will likely end up in Sunday's final. Berdych by trade will have more winners because that's his game, but errors could be the turning point. In his French Open semifinal vs. Soderling, Berdych wound up with right around a 1:1 ratio in winners vs. errors. If that happens again, Djokovic has his chance to win.

[EaglesPhan36]

PARLAY: HUBER-MATTEK SANDS (Women's Doubles) + NADAL-MURRAY OVER 3.5 Sets [+103]
Huber & Mattek-Sands easily beat the team of King-Shvedova a few weeks ago in Birmingham. King-Shvedova have had a real nice run this week, beating some higher seeded teams. I think it ends today. Nadal & Murray should be a battle and for me, I think each is going to grab at least a set - so taking it to go at least 4 sets seems solid. Doubles starts at 9:30am ET, so gotta be quick if you want it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Djokovic is already done. I knew this one was doomed when I saw everyone else on it, but still did it. That's called stupidity folks. Should have just saved my money and passed.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like I need to skip playing doubles tennis. Pick I made already down a set and a break.

[Tsonga]

Berdman helped to make me 350 today...I had no faith in djoker today...although he had his chance to get back in during the 2nd set breaker...good luck on the Murray/nadal match going over 3.5...I agree. Should be a great match.

[EaglesPhan36]

SATURDAY

SERENA WILLIAMS-ZVONAREVA OVER 19.5 [-135]
If Zvonareva just plays her balls to the wall, hit the shit out of the ball style, this may have a chance just as it did with Kvitova. Zvonareva can't really do anything strategy wise that is going to screw with Serena's game. Serena's serve has been powerful and she will likely hold serve the majority of the match. If Zvonareva can stay solid with her first serve and jump on any rare 2nd serves from Serena, she'll have a shot to take the sets deeper. The faster grass this year hopefully will play into Zvonareva's style just as much as Serena's. Zvonareva would do well to follow how Venus played Serena in the last two Wimbledon finals which led to at least one close set of 7-5 ot 7-6 and helped get those totals higher. Serena has now played three tight sets in each of her last three matches, so it is possible with two tie breakers and a 7-5. Getting one of those goes a long way in getting an over complete, but even two 6-4 sets will do it. Zvonareva has been in four finals in the last two years and only laid the one egg against Stosur on clay earlier this year. She may not push Serena to three sets, but two tight sets she may be able to do if she keeps her composure.

[Wade Dwayne]

With you Ep lets get a tie-breaker and get paid

[sportscash]

Good luck

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll give Vera credit, she didn't melt down until the final of a Slam this time. You could see it coming though when she blew a 40-15 game on her own serve there in the 1st set. She's comfortably holding serve to that point and once she blew that, she just lost it. Any thing that happened after that, she sits there and yells at herself or is mumbling to herself the whole time. Serena pushed her around on her own serve, but it could have been a different match if Vera didn't choke that one game away at 3-4 in the 1st.

[shari91]

Did you see her crying under her towel between games in the 2nd?

Bloody hell.

[EaglesPhan36]

CHALLENGER PLAY SATURDAY: SMYCZEK +125
Money has all gone to Dabul here as he's gone from -125 to -165. Other than having more experience this year at getting to Challenger finals (3), I don't see the reason for paying -165 in what amounts to a 50-50 type of match. Both have been very good at this tournament with both having just one three set match with the other 3 each being easy straight set winners. This tournament has very much been a good one for the plus money plays too as both Dabul & Smyczek were substantial dogs in the semis [Dabul +180, Smyczek +200 or so]. Going with Smyczek here as he made the finals last year at this tournament in Winnetka and lost. He's made one other final since [March 2010] and lost that as well. Perfect evening in Illinois for the final, weather won't be an issue. Starts at 8:15pm ET. Scoreboard should be up at Bet365.com again for anyone who cares.

[EaglesPhan36]

True Challenger tennis. Dabul wins 6-1, 1-6, 6-1. Could not have been any more topsy turvy than that. Oh well. Ice cold the last couple days.

For action junkies on Sunday, Juniors Title. Fucsovics at -170. He beat his opponent in the Australian Open juniors QFs with Mitchell winning just three games (6-1, 6-2). Don't know much information about them, but Fucsovics apparently has a big serve.

[ji03]

I'm assuming you have 5 dimes if you are betting juniors? I like the play by the way.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yep. Can parlay Fucsovics with Starace [+145]. Starace has a solid head-2-head record against Bolelli, beating him on clay 5 of 5 times. Worth a small play on Sunday while everyone else tries to find crap to play with the Wimbledon Men's Final. Just riding Nadal future on that one.

[rumple]

Of course Starace blows the set up a break and loses tbreaker. Im ice cold in tiebreakers recently.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah. Fucsovics won easy. Starace got raped.

[EaglesPhan36]

MONDAY

SANTONJA +240
Fading the quick change from grass to clay for Kaia Kanepi here. Both are fully capable on the surface with Kanepi winning three ITF titles on dirt this year alone. Santonja was playing more WTA main draw tennis during the clay swing, so she won't be overcome by the situation. Certainly don't think you should make any big plays on these small tournaments, but this dog is in a decent spot.

[vinnysantos]

Good luck with your monday play.

[iceminers26]

MONDAY SANTONJA +240 Fading the quick change from grass to clay for Kaia Kanepi here. Both are fully capable on the surface with Kanepi winning three ITF titles on dirt this year alone. Santonja was playing more WTA main draw tennis during the clay swing, so she won't be overcome by the situation. Certainly don't think you should make any big plays on these small tournaments, but this dog is in a decent spot.

I like this play EP, I'm playing her for a couple of units as well. Just feel she is the better clay courter and I am interested to see how Kanepi performs after her meltdown at Wimby. I really feel Santonja can jump ahead early in this one and with her clay court experience pull off the mild upset. Plus at almost 2.5:1 on my money, feel she is a must play in this spot given Kanepi's current mindset.

[shari91]

This is why I love this site! I was looking at this match-up this morning and thought I must've been missing something major to justify Kanepi getting these odds. No points to defend since she crashed out in the 1st round here last year, she's played a lot of tennis lately obviously and Santonja actually makes her money on the clay. Now I come on here and you both have picked her to win so that just leads me to believe the books are basing their odds on Kanepi's grass court run and the past H2H which came under different circumstances. A definite play for me. Best of luck.

[rumple]

Santonja was 2-12 on clay in regular tour events before this year. This year she is 13-8 so I really like the improvement she has shown to pull the upset.

[Rainman12]

Santonja has a good chance of knocking off kanepi, i will definitely play that.
also like another clay courter, Duque-Marino at +160 over Amanmuradova. Thoughts?

[whitedogau]

santonja breaks and hands it straight back, typical wta shite

[rumple]

first set down, now no choking please!

[shari91]

She's up a break in the 2nd. Come on Santonja!!

[whitedogau]

was up a break! stupid wta

[shari91]

was up a break! stupid wta

These women definitely make us work hard for our money.

[whitedogau]

yep, early breaks are dangerous and rarely maintained!

[whitedogau]

she 's gone, real momentum shift

[whitedogau]

2nd serve is getting pwnd

[bobbyhazell]

Good save to get to 4-4

[whitedogau]

another great save: 5-5

[whitedogau]

great call ep36! winner winner......

[shari91]

she 's gone, real momentum shift

You should always have faith in your bets. Even with the women.

What a great win to start the day for me! Best of luck with your other plays guys.