EP36's Tennis Talk

[EaglesPhan36]

[DOHA] ZVONAREVA -160

The conditions in Doha are hot and humid and we know some of Azarenka's history with that. Zvonareva getting a match under her belt yesterday should help a lot here. I think Azarenka playing indoors last week may have really made this week much tougher for her.

[beefcake]

I don't know why anyone is betting on cilic at his current form. I know hajek isnt any good but taking cilic at around -700 to -800 you should have your head examined..I might just throw .5 unit on hajek on general principle.

[beefcake]

and troicki goes down..!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Good call. Yeah the price on Cilic is stupid.

[beefcake]

Hey Ep, I was looking at RAM tommorrow vs the spitter. Rams strength is his serve and he has just as many aces as Hanescu in half the matches played. Victor has never been good on hard courts,much less indoor ones. Take a look and let me know what you think..

[EaglesPhan36]

Vera won in straights. Zverev was disappointing against the Donkey.

[EaglesPhan36]

[MONTPELLIER] MAHUT-SIMON OVER 21.5 [-130]
Mahut comes in here with solid form after winning an indoor hard court Challenger. Simon looked shaky in his last two outdoor tourneys following his nice run in Metz [indoor]. Simon has been very good on this surface, so I think breaks will be hard to come by especially if Mahut can carry over his form from last week. Simon should probably win at the end of the day, but it may not be a cakewalk.

[Ruff]

[MONTPELLIER] ZVEREV +175
F*ck Donkey-denko. If he steps up and finds an actual good performance, then I'll eat the loss. Nothing suggests he won't struggle here and Zverev is in pretty solid form right now with a good run through qualis here and a win over the Donkey in Shanghai last week.

[Ruff]

lets get these losers behind us.
and I feel a winning streak on the way

[EaglesPhan36]

MAD MATH PLAY

WOZNIACKI 2-1 +330
STOSUR 2-1 +705

Looking for one of them to win in three. Risking this for a unit each. Payoff is better than the +200 offered for "ends in 3 sets" option at +200. Just a gut feeling here for small change. Stosur looked solid against Schiavone and I'm not sure about Woz. She crushed Dementieva, but Elena is useless. Woz could roll here, but I am going to say Stosur sticks around for a set at least ... we shall see.

[EaglesPhan36]

Fack. This week is sucking the ball sack. Might want to fade anything I put up.

[EaglesPhan36]

Feeling confident with the Zvonareva future at Doha with her at 2-0. Clijsters still has to go up against Azarenka and Zvonareva. Obviously Vera clinches her group if she beats Clijsters. I have really have been impressed with Stosur's surge in her first two matches against Schiavone & Wozniacki. Adding her at +450 to backup the Wozniacki future because I think Stosur will beat Dementieva and win this group and getting a semifinalist at that price is superb to me. Would basically work out to +350 for me if you subtract the Wozniacki future is the group stays the way it is currently.

[EaglesPhan36]

THURSDAY PARLAY: STOSUR + KUBOT/MARACH [-115]
Stosur draws Dementieva in Doha. Stosur has flashed some great form in her two matches, showing a powerful serve and solid forehand ... the same weapons which had made her a force on tour throughout the first half of 2010. She lost her way after an early exit at Wimbledon. She surged at the US Open and then fell flat again. She's stepping back up and Dementieva looks like she might be ready to start her vacation quickly this week. Since making the final in Tokyo, the Russian has gone 2-2 and withdrawn from a tournament for unknown reasons. Dementieva has a ridiculously poor record at this event and if Stosur brings what she did against Schiavone & Wozniacki, she should win her group tomorrow. The doubles duo of Kubot-Marach draws Giraldo-Falla. Thanks to noober for pointing this one out. Kubot-Marach won the Vienna doubles title last year and the team of Giraldo-Falla is 0-7 in 2010. Simple math for me on that one. Kubot and Marach are the superior duo and should prevail in the end.

[EaglesPhan36]

[ST.PETERSBURG] TURSUNOV -102
My man Dmitry draws the battler, Lu. Lu is always a good fighter on a hard surface, but I like Tursunov's serve to provide a little better here for him. Lu is also not always solid on this indoor surface. He's 2-3 on it with his wins over Starace here and Robby Ginepri back in February/ Tursunov has a better career mark, but has not enjoyed a great amount of success on it while working back from injury in 2010. Still, he shows well usually on this surface even in losing and I expect a good battle on Thursday. Little better price on what I think is the little better player on this surface if the Russian can get his 1st serve in consistently.

[EaglesPhan36]

[VIENNA] ALMAGRO-GIRALDO OVER 22.5 [-105]
Going against the public again with the juice on the under here. Almagro is not great on this surface and Giraldo despite also being more of a slow court player, already has a match under his belt in Vienna and should be able to keep pace early. Think this could be a topsy turvy three setter or a tight two setter with the over having a shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tursunov in easy straights, 6-1, 6-4.

[EaglesPhan36]

[SAO PAULO CHALLENGER] DANIEL +120
Daniel draws an in-form Machado today, but I like Daniel here. Machado has played a ton of tennis the last couple of weeks in making a final, a semifinal and then winning two matches this week. His play at Sao Paulo has been adequate, but not as good as his previous tournaments. Daniel meanwhile looks healthier and has yet to be broken this week. He's been pumping out some aces and I think if he continues to serve that well, he will have a shot this morning. Weather looks superb in Brazil today.

[EaglesPhan36]

[ST.PETERSBURG] YOUZHNY-DONSKOY OVER 20 [+140]
Public punisher play again as the juice is ridonkulous on the under here at -170. This is just something I am trying out. Youzhny definitely is more talented and was solid in his opener, but let's see with Ruskie vs. Ruskie.

[JNic]

[ST.PETERSBURG] TURSUNOV -102

[VIENNA] ALMAGRO-GIRALDO OVER 22.5 [-105]

nice work eagles

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks. Nice to have a good start to a day for a change this week!

[EaglesPhan36]

Stosur looking more like the Stosur of the weeks prior to the Championships today. Sheesh. Headed to a 3rd set. Her serve is not as good as its been the past two days. She better find it in the 3rd!

[EaglesPhan36]

Stosur loses to Dementieva in a 3rd set tie break. Damn yooze. Blew her chance to clinch the group. F-ed me double. Thanks b-yatch.

Public punisher will hit though as Youzhny is in control in the 3rd now.

[DMB40]

eagles what you think about gasquet -190?

[EaglesPhan36]

He should probably win, but Nieminen has been playing real well on this surface. -190 is too steep for me to risk in this situation. I am probably going to have a play on the total.

[EaglesPhan36]

[MONTPELLIER] NIEMINEN-GASQUET OVER 23.5 [-113]
Books have this set to be a potential three set affair and I think it might be. Gasquet had to work hard against Reister to survive the first round as did Nieminen with Serra. Nieminen has been in solid form on this surface since September and Gasquet has played some tight matches on this surface. If both can serve well, this could even get done in two sets.

[EaglesPhan36]

[SAO PAULO CHALLENGER] DANIEL +120

[Miaggi]

One late pick from me:

Nieminem - Gasquet 1 2,35 (live odds)
There is no so big difference now between them, and Gasquet has always problems with players, who are running for every ball and love long rallies.
GL - no longer comment about forms, pure value on JN side.

[EaglesPhan36]

Believe Stosur and Wozniacki made the semis as a result of today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks for choking in the tie break Gascan, gives the over legs so long as the match finishes.

[noober]

even if there is a retirement the bet is a win

[EaglesPhan36]

Not at 5Dimes my man. Their totals, the match has to be completed to the finish.

Gasquet showing why you shouldn't back him at a big price.

[noober]

Not at 5Dimes my man. Their totals, the match has to be completed to the finish.

Gasquet showing why you shouldn't back him at a big price.

that's stupid!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

I can understand totals and handicaps being for completed matches only. It's like betting on a baseball total and getting screwed if the game doesn't go 9 innings.

[beefcake]

Thought I had it with Ram today...Hanescu is now like chardy is for you as far as I am concered. I hate that SOB,when I bet him he spits when I fade him he somehow rallies..

[EaglesPhan36]

I think Hanescu is like that for everyone now beef. I don't know too many people who are fond of that mofo. Some real nice looking matches tomorrow.