EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-19-10, 12:07 PM

[STOCKHOLM] BLAKE +150
Waited for this to get out as far as it was going to go and this looks like a good time to get it after it opened around +125 or +130. My gut feeling here is that James Blake is here to at least try his best. His best may be shit, but there's really no reason why he would take the wild card here if he didn't think he was in decent shape. He's got good history here and Bellucci despite his run here last year is not great on indoor hard courts. To me, this is one of those spots where you can take Blake as a moderate dog and feel okay at the end of the day. Bellucci's form during the hard court swing this summer and into the fall has been pretty much shite too, so I'm feelin' the J-BLOCK today baby. Fire it up!

**Mikail** · 10-19-10, 12:17 PM

Love this play. Really think Blake rolls today with little problem.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-19-10, 12:27 PM

Patience gets it done in 3.

I don't know about easy. Nothing ever seems easy for JB any more, but I do think he'll be competitive.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-19-10, 01:11 PM

CHALLENGER PLAY

[SANTIAGO] TEIXEIRA +160
This line is awfully low for an aged veteran like Delgado against a kid like Teixeira with little experience. So this is a fade play for me as perhaps the books think like I do in that Delgado could be here to fold early after playing the whole week and losing the final in Paraguay last week. He won the final last year in Paraguay and then got crushed in the next tournament. Taking that shot again here even though I know little to nothing about Maxime Teixeira other than he has a nice record at the Futures level of 43-18 on clay. Might have some ability. We shall see.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-19-10, 02:27 PM

Summama bitch. Massu retired in the 3rd. Stupid play in the end I suppose.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-19-10, 04:07 PM

J-BLOCK beyotch! Blake wins in 3.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-19-10, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

CHALLENGER PLAY [SANTIAGO] TEIXEIRA +160

Texeira wins as Delgado retires after losing the 1st game in the 3rd set. Nice karma after the same shit happened oppo for me with Massu.

**Mikail** · 10-19-10, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

J-BLOCK beyotch! Blake wins in 3.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-19-10, 08:44 PM

WEDNESDAY CHALLENGER PLAY

[ORLEANS] MAHUT -120
Mahut draws Beck and there a few decent angles as to which to try the home standing Frenchman here. First, Karol Beck won an outdoor hard court in Uzbekistan last week, so he's had to travel and will be on a bit of short rest as a result. Mahut meanwhile has been solid at this tournament throughout the years at 15-3 and he's made the finals in three of his four tries here at Orleans. Mahut hasn't been in great form since the old marathon match at Wimbledon, but he's shown enough that I think he can do well at one of his favorite tournaments. If he pumps his serve in, he's got a weapon that Beck does not and that could be a difference maker on this indoor surface.

**Goat Milk** · 10-20-10, 12:12 AM

Blake

only could manage to throw $50 on him you never know anymore with Blake. doe she win his next match?

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 07:24 AM

Mahut won in straights this morning.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 08:19 AM

[LUXEMBOURG] SCHNYDER-WICKMAYER OVER 21.5 [+100]
An interesting clash here with two players who made it to indoor finals last week. Schnyder was beat easily by Ivanovic in Linz, while Wickmayer won on the lower level ITF. That should negate fatigue as an angle to give either a big advantage today. Their only meeting was this year at the US Open, a great three set match that featured two tie breaks. May not get that today, but I can see this one having a good shot at the over because of multiple breaks and momentum swings.

**WalkingLuckCharm** · 10-20-10, 08:20 AM

BOL on your bet EP!

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 08:27 AM

[KREMLIN CUP] STARACE-BAGHDATIS OVER 21 [-125]
Giving this a whirl as this is the first match up for Baghdatis in Moscow after losing in straights to Chardy in Shanghai last week. The surface change shouldn't be too large a factor as Baghdatis prefers fast conditions, but with Starace already having a match in-hand and looking confident on the surface, this could be tighter than some would expect. If Starace gets his 1st serve in consistently, I think this will go over.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 08:44 AM

Somebody hammered that Schnyder-Wickmayer total, now at -125.

**WalkingLuckCharm** · 10-20-10, 08:44 AM

Yo EP, in women's tennis are they actually better at receiving if they are lower ranked players?

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 08:50 AM

I don't think ranking has anything to do with skill set in tennis. I think WTA for the most part, returns are easier because there are only a handful or two of ladies who actually have efficient/powerful serves + a lot of them have trouble consistently gettin their 1st serve in which means on their 2nd serve it's basically like a baseball hitter knowing a fastball is coming right down the middle of the plate ... that or they double fault.

**WalkingLuckCharm** · 10-20-10, 08:56 AM

Haha I see, thanks for the explanation. Man that's really pathetic. It's because I was never into women's tennis except the big matchs, and now that I see more matches from capping, its really frustrating.

Don't wanna be sexist but far out girls are weak.
I literally am scared when the girl i bet on is serving

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 10:27 AM

Thanks Wickmayer. Up 4-2 in the 2nd, should have been no problem getting over the total and you lose four straight. Both totals boned.

**beefcake** · 10-20-10, 10:34 AM

The way Berdych has sucked as of late and the flying Finn having a Renaissance leads me to consider a play..What do you think?

**Mikail** · 10-20-10, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

The way Berdych has sucked as of late and the flying Finn having a Renaissance leads me to consider a play..What do you think?

Thinking about fading Berdych myself.

**beefcake** · 10-20-10, 10:39 AM

I know Tomas is 4-0 career vs the fin man,but i dont really read much into that this time of the year..berdych is below .500 since wimbledon..

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 10:49 AM

That one doesn't appeal to me on either side. Berdych could easily roll him or get rolled.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 11:58 AM

CHALLENGER PARLAY: AGUILAR + FOGNINI [+100]
Last minute here, but injury info on their opposition may lead to straight forward wins for each.

**Miaggi** · 10-20-10, 01:09 PM

Hi guys, I am new to this forum, very long time searching for good tennis forum. Happy to come across this thread.

Today I was on Schnyder, Kukushkin, Nieminem and Errani. Hope to be helpful in this forum. GL

**Mikail** · 10-20-10, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

I know Tomas is 4-0 career vs the fin man,but i dont really read much into that this time of the year..berdych is below .500 since wimbledon..

Make that 4-1 now.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by Miaggi

Hi guys, I am new to this forum, very long time searching for good tennis forum. Happy to come across this thread. Today I was on Schnyder, Kukushkin, Nieminem and Errani. Hope to be helpful in this forum. GL

Welcome aboard.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

CHALLENGER PARLAY: AGUILAR + FOGNINI [+100] Last minute here, but injury info on their opposition may lead to straight forward wins for each.

Cashola. Sorry I didn't get this one up earlier for anyone who follows along. I dragged my feet waiting on the injury info and making a decision.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 09:50 PM

THURSDAY PLAYS

[KREMLIN CUP] KUNITSYN +116
He draws Golubev who is in good form on this surface, but despite a pretty easy 1st round win, it was not all that impressive. The Russian meanwhile is on a good roll too with his run through qualifying and a 1st round win over Andreev. Although most of his damage has been done on the Challenger level, Kunitsyn has been very consistent this summer with three semifinal and one final appearance on outdoor courts. He struggled in losing his transition match last week to indoor courts, but now looks to be in a groove. He's done well here in the past and I think that may continue to be the case on Thursday.

PARLAY: TSONGA + MALISSE [+107]
Tsonga draws Troicki in Moscow on an indoor hard surface. Troicki does have a match in-hand here after he overcame Tursunov despite being down a set and a break. Still, this is not Troicki's best surface. Tsonga meanwhile has looked okay in his two tournaments since a long layoff. Quick surfaces are always going to be helpful to Tsonga if he has his serve working. He has a solid record on this surface and shouldn't be overworked with plenty of days off between his last match and this one. Troicki could make it tricky, but I like Tsonga. Malisse is down on the Challenger level in Orleans on an indoor hard court against Bozoljac who has not had a ton of success on this surface. Malisse did okay in round one against Rosol and appears to like this court as he is now 6-0 all-time here. Bozoljac is going to bring a booming serve, but his return game is not good. This will probably come down to who can consistently get their first serve in with the second serve being where this will be won or lost to me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 10:04 PM

Pot shot of the night at the Seoul Challenger: Tsung-Hua Yang +323 over Lu. Just a little gut play with some mad money.

**beefcake** · 10-20-10, 10:17 PM

I kinda like clement vs lubi...

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-10, 11:37 PM

Don't like that one personally beef. If Old Man River serves like he did last tournament or two, I think Clement will get beat. Clement's serve isn't good enough I don't think to go toe-to-toe. Always a shot, but I think Ljubicic is going to pull it out.

**ROYAJA8** · 10-21-10, 12:27 AM

Tsonga will win

**Miaggi** · 10-21-10, 04:03 AM

Hi guys, today I play parlay Kirilenko + Dolgopolov - combo odds 2,56 (using decimal odds format).
Kirilenko very constant on her serve, saw her first match, very motivated vs Bondarenko offered 16Bp for Kvitova in first round. Odds on Dolgopolov are dropping very quick, so I go with market here.

GL

**INDIANOPERATOR** · 10-21-10, 04:15 AM

Good luck Eaglesphan

I'm on Tsonga ML, and -2.5