EP36's Tennis Talk

ToNyyy · 10-22-10, 11:15 AM

help a fellow out eaglesphan

EaglesPhan36 · 10-22-10, 11:37 AM

Doubles play hits in straight sets.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-22-10, 02:37 PM

F me. Apparently the people in Chile decided to take the day off from updating the scores today at the Santiago Challenger. Found live scores for the current matches finally at bwin ... but nothing on results. My kingdom for some results.

nicsbr · 10-22-10, 04:23 PM

any toughts on ryan harrysion - robert kendrick?

EaglesPhan36 · 10-22-10, 09:48 PM

[CALABASAS] COOK +160
This is Cook's home tournament, not that he has performed all that well at it in the past. He draws Sweeting tonight and it's a chance to Cook to avenge a three set loss to Sweeting a couple weeks ago at Sacramento. Cook has shown the ability to perform well at these hard court Challengers with a finals loss in September and a couple of semifinal appearances in the summer. Sweeting spent most of his summer working through qualis to get into main draw ATP events with mixed success. He's capable, but certainly not worth -210 to me as neither guy is particularly efficient on serve. This one goes after a doubles match which is in progress, I'd guess maybe an hour to hour and a half from now. Book cutoff says 11:15pm ET.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-23-10, 12:03 AM

Cook got crushed. That's gonna do it for the weekend for me as I am road trippin' tomorrow with the GF and only making a few football and soccer plays. Good luck to you peeps this weekend and I'll see ya next week.

shari91 · 10-23-10, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Cook got crushed. That's gonna do it for the weekend for me as I am road trippin' tomorrow with the GF and only making a few football and soccer plays. Good luck to you peeps this weekend and I'll see ya next week.

Have a safe trip EP!! Hope you have a blast.

nicsbr · 10-23-10, 05:29 AM

hf on the trip

EaglesPhan36 · 10-24-10, 09:17 PM

ST.PETERSBURG OPEN
The top half of the draw here features Youzhny as the top seed in his quarter and Troicki as the seed in his quarter. For Youzhny, if he's here and healthy there should be little to stop him from getting to the semis. He missed last week with a viral infection. Troicki faces some hurdles with Dolgopolov potentially in the 2nd round and some wildcards in the other portion including Lu and Tursunov. Should note that since Youzhny won this tournament in 2004, he is just 6-4 here and has not made another final. Troicki would look good in this spot except winning in Moscow may burn him out this week and I don't believe he's ever won back-2-back tourneys. By default, I'll side with Youzhny in this portion because of the lack of competition.

In the bottom half, there is far more competition. Chardy and Tipsarevic are the seeds in their quarter. You've also got Russians Kunitsyn and Andreev here. It's a crapshoot in this quarter with the inconsistency. Down low, Istomin and defending champ Stakhovsky are the seeds. I think one of those two will be your finalist. Istomin is in better form and has an easier road. Istomin's toughest test should be the QF against Stakhovsky potentially.

YOUZHNY +250
ISTOMIN +1100

birdmanweezy · 10-24-10, 09:18 PM

good luck istomin has a shot

EaglesPhan36 · 10-24-10, 11:47 PM

PARLAY: KOHLSCHREIBER + VASSELIN [+103]
Kohlschreiber draws Falla in his opener in Vienna. Falla has lost six straight matches, starting with a loss to Kohlschreiber in Cincinnati this summer. On indoor courts, Falla has not won an ATP main draw match in over two years. Kohlschreiber withdrew from his last tournament during his match with Roddick sighting an ilness. He's had a couple weeks to recover and should be okay here. He played well in his last indoor tournament in Metz, making the semis. A good serving day should see him through. Vasselin draws Gil in France. Gil has played a couple of hard court Challengers in the last two weeks with a 1-2 mark. Most of his year is spent on clay, so transitioning to the indoor courts likely won't do much for him against Vasselin. Vasselin has been on indoor courts plenty of late, but his results have been mixed. Still, his game is better suited to these conditions and if he can pump his 1st serve in, I think he'll outlast Gil today.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-24-10, 11:52 PM

[ST.PETERSBURG] RUSSELL +200
I think Russell rates a shot against Andreev. Russell hasn't had a ton of success on this indoor surface, but he's played tough against Stakhovsky in his last two matches on it. Andreev made a nice run in Kuala Lumpur but lost last week to Kunitsyn. This is not a great surface for the Russian who is well under .500 on it for his career of late. Russell will need to serve well which is not always his strong suit, but if he can, he won't be totally outclassed here.

JNic · 10-25-10, 12:13 AM

i have a lot of respect for the russell play, i contemplated that for so long but i didn't have the guts

lasker · 10-25-10, 02:15 AM

I'm on the Russell play too. GL

Ruff · 10-25-10, 04:23 AM

GL EP
Hope you sweep

sharlataans · 10-25-10, 05:05 AM

Could you elaborate why NO CHARDY BETS?

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-10, 08:21 AM

I don't bet on Jeremy Chardy matches because you never know what you're going to get with him. Today being a prime example. Competitive sets for the 1st two and then 6-0 in the 3rd. I've been on the wrong side either trying to fade or follow him this year that I just decided not to screw with anything in his matches for the rest of 2010.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-10, 09:56 AM

Nice choke by Vasselin. Up 4-2 in the 3rd, he's about to lose 6-4. Was steamrolling through the 2nd and 3rd. Didn't watch, but that seems fishy as usual.

moses millsap · 10-25-10, 09:59 AM

5-5? give up a little early?

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-10, 10:07 AM

Choke early. Choke late.

moses millsap · 10-25-10, 10:12 AM

sorry, frenchies, i saw him up 40-15 at 5-5, thought the crowd would pull him through for you...good luck on russell

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-10, 10:37 AM

Yeah I don't read that much into home court advantage in these smaller tournaments. Surface wise I thought he would have been the much better guy in this spot, but again you can't cap chokes or fixes so a loss is a loss.

Russell with an early break, up 2-0. Be nice to see him roll.

erraasonia · 10-25-10, 10:39 AM

have you any tennis bet record (or spreadsheet)? ty

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-10, 10:41 AM

Nah. I stopped keeping a record of picks awhile back, it was getting too high and low in tennis for me during the hot and cold streaks to see the way things were going. Tried to make this thread an information one along with the picks I make. I've said it before, I'm probably a 52-55% winner maybe over the course of things. I run hot and cold like anyone else.

FYI last week, I think I added it up and I was close to 60% ... so the law of averages this week ...

moses millsap · 10-25-10, 10:46 AM

i wanted to bet russell and fischer, but couldnt pull the trigger...i like PK to roll over falla, but not sure i want to play 1.33 odds or the -4 HC, thoughts?

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-10, 11:19 AM

Only liked Kohlschreiber in a parlay because I didn't want to eat that chalk if he was still feeling any ill effects from that illness. I think Clement is pretty solid to take potentially over Montanes, so maybe Kohly + Clement on a parlay.

moses millsap · 10-25-10, 11:39 AM

im not huge on parlays...dont eat chalk, cause dont bet base betting, just risk, so it would only yield a small return if i bet on kohli to win and he lost...but not sure i rate him at least 80% to win this match, which is what i would need to bet him since -305 equates to 75.3% probability...with his injury, just not worth the risk...sometimes the best bet is no bet lol...

i kind of like lena vs caroline tomorrow at 2.9ish odds

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-10, 11:47 AM

REISTER-GASQUET OVER 20.5 [+120]
Public play punisher special here. The juice is showing HEAVY on the under at -150 at my book, but is Gasquet guaranteed a steamroll special today? Yes, Reister is better suited to slower surfaces, but Gasquet hasn't always easily dispatched of inferior opponents on the indoor hard surface. Gasman also hasn't played since Shanghai about 10 days or so ago. If he takes a set to get acclimated and in-form, Reister could stick close for a set which would be good enough to give this a shot. Reister will have to control his own serve well, which will still be a task on this surface. Anywho, small potatoes to punish the public or my wallet.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-10, 11:48 AM

Cripes Russell. Another meltdown in progress potentially.

moses millsap · 10-25-10, 12:01 PM

nice cash on Russell EP36, was sweating it on the scoreboard, that whole sequence from 5-2 to 5-5 to having 3 bps and blowing them all must've put you through the grinder, lol...

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-10, 12:04 PM

Russell wins 6-1, 7-5.

Nothing ever easy in tennis!

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-10, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

REISTER-GASQUET OVER 20.5 [+120] Public play punisher special here.

Looking good so long as they finish it up. In the 3rd now.

Mikail · 10-25-10, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

REISTER-GASQUET OVER 20.5 [+120]
Public play punisher special here. The juice is showing HEAVY on the under at -150 at my book, but is Gasquet guaranteed a steamroll special today? Yes, Reister is better suited to slower surfaces, but Gasquet hasn't always easily dispatched of inferior opponents on the indoor hard surface. Gasman also hasn't played since Shanghai about 10 days or so ago. If he takes a set to get acclimated and in-form, Reister could stick close for a set which would be good enough to give this a shot. Reister will have to control his own serve well, which will still be a task on this surface. Anywho, small potatoes to punish the public or my wallet.

Nice call EP this was like you said juiced for the under. Interestingly enough Gasquet loses tiebreak in first.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-10, 03:20 PM

Yeah I try to track these plays sometimes when the juice on the O/U is drastically in favor of one side or the other ... don't know for sure, but it seems like the juice is wrong more than it's right.

Of course the play still has to make sense too, I wouldn't blindly play it just because of the juice favoring one play. Anywho, decent start to the week. Probably play some Doha stuff this week since the Challenger circuit is slim pickings with just one tournament.

Miaggi · 10-25-10, 03:53 PM

Gratz to very good day, what´s your opinion on Garcia-Lopez vs Berrer game tomorrow? I saw Berrer in his match against Nieminem and he was very good from base line. Is 2,4 worth shot?