I won't be tempting fate too much this weekend with any more ATP or WTA choices until the next tourneys start. Might do a Challenger or two depending on what's what.
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CHALLENGER PLAY
[TIBURON] MATOSEVIC +140
Matosevic draws Kamke today on an outdoor hard court. There was a time in the early summer when Kamke was the in-form Challenger player on tour and he also translated that into nice runs at the French & Wimbledon. That was then and this is now. Since winning a hard court Challenger in late July, Kamke is 5-4 on hard courts with three of those wins coming this week. He doesn't have a blistering serve that earns him a ton of cheap points, so it is important for him to get his 1st serve in consistently. That will be key today. Matosevic is fully capable on this surface with a title in July as well. He's sporting a 9-5 record on outdoor hard courts since August and is 5-1 over his last two tourneys. Matosevic plays a somewhat disjointed game that can mess with impatient players. I recall reading about him rattling Donald Young with his style in winning his Challenger title in July. Don't know that Kamke will be rattled, but I certainly think if Matosevic gets his 1st serve in consistently [60-70%] he will have a shot here today.Comment -
Lost in 3 sets, 7-5 in the 3rd.Comment -
Yes but he was up 5-3 and serving for the win. He was then broken three times to lose 7-5.
I had him live after the second set and was counting my money. Mutherfuker.
What do you think of federer in straight sets tonight EP. They both playing well but I think Fed smacks him around tonight.Comment -
Sorry didn't really look at today's stuff too much. Surprised Murray whipped Federer. Big win for Murray's confidence.
Small play on Delgado in the Asuncion Challenger final to repeat his title from last year at +115. I did not know Matosevic blew it that bad, missed the last set totally. Hate that crap, but you can't cap for choking.Comment -
We should still fade Stepanek in the first round in moscow..as much as I cant stand the spitter..Istomin should roll Marchenko ,not a bad price on that..Comment -
TURSUNOV +160
Gotta go with my boy at the Kremlin Cup. He draws Troicki who played very well in Tokyo. But this is an indoor surface in Russia that Troicki has struggled on. He has lost four of his last five on this surface. Tursunov has slowly begun to show a little form late in the year after battling through injuries for most of 2010. If he can get his first serve in consistently, I rate the Russian a shot at the upset especially after reading one of this tweets.
Get 'em homey!Getting killed by EVERYONE in practice. Must be a good sign!!!
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STARACE +165
Gut play here. Starace is a clay courter through and through, but Gabashvili has been trash for most of the year. Starace won an indoor hard court match in Davis Cup play in easy fashion in September and played Gabashvilli to a pair of tight sets when they met in New Haven during the summer on an outdoor court. We'll see who shows up.Comment -
Best of luck EP!TURSUNOV +160
Gotta go with my boy at the Kremlin Cup. He draws Troicki who played very well in Tokyo. But this is an indoor surface in Russia that Troicki has struggled on. He has lost four of his last five on this surface. Tursunov has slowly begun to show a little form late in the year after battling through injuries for most of 2010. If he can get his first serve in consistently, I rate the Russian a shot at the upset especially after reading one of this tweets.
Get 'em homey!
Really trying to force myself to stay away from Moscow this week. At least the early rounds. Russians playing at home is enough to curdle my already weak stomach. Plus I got smoked in the first round last year with the women so I really need my willpower to kick in.
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CHALLENGER PLAY
[ORLEANS] DIMITROV +115
Dimitrov draws Lacko today. Both have been playing the indoor hard court Challengers lately. Lacko has dropped two of his last three on the surface. One to Mahut last week in which he again showed his inconsistency and the other to an out-of-form Cilic in September. Dimitrov meanwhile lost to Dancevic last week in Rennes in two tight sets, 7-5, 7-6. It was his first tournament on this surface since early in the year and he shows more confidence now on faster surfaces after winning a pair of hard court Challengers in September. Dimitrov has shown great ability late in the year on all surfaces and with Lacko being an inconsistent type, I'll take the young talented Bulgarian to have a shot today.Comment -
You say Potito, I say Potato, let's call it a winna!
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Challenger play cashes. Dimitrov in straights 7-5, 6-3.
Let's go Tursunov!Comment -
Nice choke by Tursunov. Damn it Dmitry. Up a set and a break in the 2nd, he gets beat in 3. Oh well, still a nice day and should make for some interesting Tursunov Tweets.Comment -
Dammit..Comment -
Nix that play. No tracking sites available, don't want to invest in that shite.Comment -
[KREMLIN CUP] GOLUBEV-GONZALEZ UNDER 21 [-113]
Golubev was very good on this surface in Kuala Lumpur back in late September, making the final. He did not look good in two matches since then on outdoor hard courts, losing both. Still, this surface suits him. He is 12-4 on this surface in 2010 whereas Maximo Gonzalez has never played a match on an indoor hard court. Gonzalez has been in the in-form Challenger player on clay, but the switch to this quick surface likely will be a bit much to ask of him. These two did play during the summer on an outdoor court in New Haven with Golubev winning in 3 lopsided sets. He is 3-0 all-time vs. Gonzalez, including a smackdown of Gonzalez on his preferred surface of clay earlier this year.Comment -
[STOCKHOLM] CLEMENT +140
[KREMLIN CUP] HANESCU +170
Not over analyzing these two. Looking for a split to make a profit. Clement draws Olivier Rochus who was nothing special on an indoor hard court in his home country in his last tournament. If Clement serves well, he'll have a shot. Hanescu plays Stepanek who looks like he's pretty tired after trying to come back form injury late this year. Hanescu is a piece of shit, but on any given day, he can get a win here.Comment -
On Hansecu as well, Good Luck to us bothComment -
I was some Flanders magic.
Looks like I missed some potato magic ?Comment -
Sweet. He seems like a real doosh from everything I have read about him. Well Clement starts off winning 6-0 in the 1st, let's see what happens next.Comment -
CHALLENGER PLAY
[SANTIAGO] PATIENCE -115
Patience is up against Junqueira today. The Frenchman has been in decent form, although he comes in here having lost his last match in Spain a few weeks back. Prior to that, Patience had gone 5-2 in his last two clay court Challengers. His schedule has been reasonable, so fatigue should not be an issue. Junqueira meanwhile has been on a heavier schedule with tournaments almost every week since August. He's just 3-6 in that span. Overall, I think Patience has been more consistent late in the year on clay whereas Junqueira's form has dropped since a decent run in the Spring. If Patience can get his serve in consistently, I believe he has the goods to win this one today.Comment -
I am really shocked to see the approach of both Hanescu and Stepanek in this match,both are just going through the motions,just putting the ball in court.I am aware about these two fixing their matches but seems like the set score is also fixed by them beforehand,Both losers !!Comment -
There's the expected Hanescu choke on-serve.Comment -
Man how in the hell is Donald young that big of a fave vs Yani.? value on him for sure...Ive gotten off the young bandwagon..Yani all the way..Comment -
DY's record at Calabasas I am presuming is what swayed the books. 14-3, made the final twice and won it last year. I want nothing to do with that match. Both are in poor form although Yani might actually be in worse form right now.Comment -
Golubev finishes crushing Maximo 6-3, 6-2. Under hits.
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CHALLENGER PLAY
[SANTIAGO] MASSU -105
Gut play here. Massu has struggled with a foot injury late in the season, but showed okay last week in Paraguay playing two three set matches. He lost to eventual runner-up Delgado. This tournament was good to him last season as he made the final. He draws Rufin who is 3-6 in main draw clay matches since a QF appearance at a clay Challenger event in July. In a poor season, this is one of Massu's last chances to show well and in front of the home fans .. not that he always plays well in Chile, but gut says go for it here.Comment -
Good work again, EP. I'm curious, do you have a sense (or maybe you've even tracked) whether your best long-term results are from ATP, WTA, Challengers or Doubles betting? I'm looking to try to focus more on one area and would appreciate your input.
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I think I run hot & cold in all.
Would say WTA is probably least successful though. Challengers probably I would rate just slightly above the rest for me.Comment -
thanksComment