EP36's Tennis Talk

[EaglesPhan36]

CHALLENGER PARLAY

[TIBURON] BALL + REYNOLDS [+111]
Ball draws Lapentti who is much more comfortable on clay. Ball showed no ill effects from a quad strain last week in winning his opener at Tiburon vs. King-Turner. Lapentti beat a freshman from USC easily in his opener, but has really only enjoyed mild success on this surface. If Ball is close to fit and serving well, he should win this as he did against the Ecuadoran early this year on an indoor hard court. Reynolds has already crushed Smyczek twice this year on hard courts. Reynolds needs to serve much better than he did in beating Van Der Merwe yesterday, but if he gets his 1st serve in better, he should have a good shot again.

[Yezzir]

CHALLENGER PARLAY

[TIBURON] BALL + REYNOLDS [+111]
Ball draws Lapentti who is much more comfortable on clay. Ball showed no ill effects from a quad strain last week in winning his opener at Tiburon vs. King-Turner. Lapentti beat a freshman from USC easily in his opener, but has really only enjoyed mild success on this surface. If Ball is close to fit and serving well, he should win this as he did against the Ecuadoran early this year on an indoor hard court. Reynolds has already crushed Smyczek twice this year on hard courts. Reynolds needs to serve much better than he did in beating Van Der Merwe yesterday, but if he gets his 1st serve in better, he should have a good shot again.

Glad you're on these, I already did a parlay including these 2 + Hantuchova.

[TT22]

Nice hit at +150

[EaglesPhan36]

Ball needs to get his act together quick. Will have to see if I can find a feed when I get back to work to see if he's hindered or just playing poorly.

[EaglesPhan36]

Don't think Ball is gonna do much here today. He's not winning any return points.

[EaglesPhan36]

Flip flop in the 2nd. Ball wins 6-3. Going to the 3rd.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ball won it, 6-3 in the 3rd. Reynolds now in-play.

[Yezzir]

You cunt Reynolds.

[EaglesPhan36]

Agreed. Unfortunately his serve did not improve much from yesterday, but Smyczek played better.

[beefcake]

EP, wonder GG lopez on the handicap and joe willie might be in the cards..

[MUHerd37]

I look for Djokovic to take out GGL. Djokovic is on fire. It's ridiculous how well he is playing right now.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think Tsonga is a worthwhile play fo' sho. Even if Murray crushes him, I don't think he's worth -300. If Tsonga can play short points, he for sure has a shot. #1 thing for him is to up that 1st serve %.


... Seeing plays too though that mark this as a no play or a play on Murray for parlay purposes. I'll leave it be and see how things shake down.

[EaglesPhan36]

WTA PLAY

[OSAKA] TANASUGARN-CHANG OVER 21.5 [-105]
Chang won this match-up last year in Osaka. Would feel better about backing Tanasugarn if she had not played three hours vs. Vandeweghe yesterday. Still, I like this one to be competitive and think 22 games can happen in straights and will have a definite chance if it goes the distance. Neither is dominant, so I can see it being your typical Pepto Bismol WTA back and forther.

[Mikail]

Good value on Tsonga worth a small play. I agree EP

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY PARLAY: FEDERER + IVANOVIC [-130]
Federer draws Soderling today. Soderling to me has seemingly worn down here late in the season. He's getting by in the early rounds, but hasn't put together a run in any of his last three tournaments. Federer meanwhile may have been the smartest strategist down the stretch by not playing anything since the US Open. He hasn't necessarily been super sharp this week, but I think Soderling will have him ready to play at his best today. He may also be really focused with a chance to pocket a title here and narrow the gap on Djokovic for #2. Ivanovic draws Georges and Ana has been in a good run of form over the past weeks. She's excelled at this tournament in the past and if she can avoid the service yips, I like her to move on today.

[Ruff]

im with ya EP good luck

love it

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
[4122] R FEDERER -280
(R SODERLING vrs R FEDERER)
[4752] A IVANOVIC -330
(J GOERGES vrs A IVANOVIC)

800 / 615

[EaglesPhan36]

PETKOVIC-DANIILIDOU UNDER 19.5 [-108]
Gut feeling here. One of these chicks is getting taken to pound town.

[EaglesPhan36]

Speaking of pound town, how's your ass Soderling?

[Yezzir]

PETKOVIC-DANIILIDOU UNDER 19.5 [-108]
Gut feeling here. One of these chicks is getting taken to pound town.

I thought the same, and I can see it being Daniilidou.

[Ruff]

Speaking of pound town, how's your ass Soderling?

time to bring home IVANOVIC

[EaglesPhan36]

CHALLENGER PLAY

[RENNES] DANCEVIC +105
Dancevic draws Clement again this week after beating him in Mons last week on an indoor court. The home country factor is really the only reason I can fathom why Clement is a -145 favorite here. Their last encounter featured 25 aces for Dancevic, while Clement was able to walk the tight rope by saving 11 of 13 break points to keep the two sets tight. This week in Rennes, Dancevic's serve has been solid again as he has not been broken once in two matches. Clement has been broken just once and that came in his opener when he offered up eight break opps. This will come down to Clement's serve I think. If he serves well, then this match will be up for grabs. If not, Dancevic should have every chance to beat him again.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pound town! Hope Dancevic takes Clement on a trip to pound town next.

[EaglesPhan36]

CHALLENGER PLAY

[ASUNCION] CIRIC -140
Ciric draws Galdon who has had a tremendous week, running through qualifying here and upsetting a pretty good player in Ramos-Vinolas yesterday. He does fall into the formula I like to fade though where he won less points than Ramos-Vinolas despite winning. Ciric has used a big serve this week for success with 25 aces yesterday in beating Dabul. Ciric has been in pretty good form from September on with two semifinal Challenger appearances on clay and a QF appearance last week where he hurt his ankle and retired. Fitness appears okay this week. If he can pump his 1st serve in, I think he can find success again.

[EaglesPhan36]

My sportsbook is on vacation in pound town today. Parlay & Dancevic complete.

[Yezzir]

Tailed you on both

[ronaldo922]

Ciric just became a dog. do we still play it?????

[EaglesPhan36]

I saw the price flip flop from -140 to -110 and then back to -140 again when I booked it. I stick with what I cap unless there is a massive price change. Trying to follow the money in tennis especially if its against your gut instincts is suicidal in the long run ... at least for me. I feel better losing with a play I liked rather than getting on board with some late money movement if it pans out at all.

Challengers I think are even more difficult to figure out if there is a legit reason for money movement or just a massive bet on the other guy.

[rpdiddy]

Ciric -170 now!

[ronaldo922]

**** did i just miss the price of ciric as a dog! MF

[EaglesPhan36]

That's why I think you don't over think tennis picks once you make them. Price swings like that, who the hell knows what's what. Ciric up 5-1 in the 1st. Solid start at least.

[Ruff]

My sportsbook is on vacation in pound town today. Parlay & Dancevic complete.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pablo Galdon ...

Welcome to POUND TOWN.

6-3, 6-4 Ciric wins.

[Yezzir]

Pablo Galdon ...

Welcome to POUND TOWN.

6-3, 6-4 Ciric wins.

My book didn't offer me that tournament

[EaglesPhan36]

I will preface by saying this is a time killer whilest I chill on the porch, drinking a beer and wait for football and baseball to start in about an hour. Small play on Delgado +190 Asuncion Challenger. Riba is the better player, but Delgado surprised by winning this event in his home country last year and I think he'll make it interesting ... hopefully. This match will not be anywhere near pound town though. Pound town is locked up for the evening.

[EaglesPhan36]

Del-Got It in 3.