Stacocakes US Open Thread

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 05:02 PM

hmm nm YOuz was up only one set to love before he blew it not two

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 05:24 PM

Youz loses as a -350 favorite thereabouts

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 05:33 PM

Mayer two sets down.Good thing I stayed away bah

Blake loses the second set. Unfortunately I didnt stay away from him though

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 05:38 PM

blake broken again to start the third set. Unbelievable

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 05:43 PM

Blake match, 10 points in a row by the returner...how the **** is that possible in mens tennis...

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-03-09, 05:55 PM

Blake was never gonna make it easy man. He should still win, but he'll have to work for it apparently. I think he'll get it in 4 perhaps. Kohlschreiber is gonna make me pay apparently. Blah! Well, early still.

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 07:12 PM

Blake cashes.No further plays for the night

Looks as though Devvarman didnt show up tonight Eagles

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 07:19 PM

devvarman with the break in the third.Not over yet

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-03-09, 07:21 PM

He's had plenty of opportunities, I've only been scoreboard watching - he just hasn't cashed any break opps until now. 2 of 11. If he had cashed half of those, he'd probably be level at a set each.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-03-09, 07:26 PM

2 breaks now in the 3rd. F*ckin' A boy, remember this stuff in the 4th set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-03-09, 07:35 PM

Bageled in the 3rd? You gotta be kidding. Kohlschreiber will either annhilate him in the 4th or we go 5.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-03-09, 07:41 PM

Annhilation commences, broken in the 1st game. Well at least maybe those who played the handicap of games might have a shot.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-03-09, 07:53 PM

Could be back to back bagels, but for each player. Tell me that shit doesn't smell funny.

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 08:27 PM

Sorry to hear Eagles.Lets get em back tomorrow

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-03-09, 10:28 PM

Telling you I will be on Stepanek over Kohlschreiber. Hoping he'll be -150 or less. I'll pound it if he is.

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 10:47 PM

I agree stepanek should beat Kohl and I have always liked Stepanek but the thing is he can look so good some days and then there are matches where he just comes out and gets totally destroyed and is not even close.Like 6-2 6-2 type stuff. Australian open was the big one that comes to mind where he was playing verdasco and lost 6-4 6-0 6-0.Just ****ing packed it in. At least with players like Nadal you know you are going to get a fight. Stepanek is kinda hit or miss.When he is on though hes really good. I am guessing you will get your wish and stepanek will be under -150. I see no lines up currently

Federer -2400 over Hewitt haha. I think Federer has beaten Hewitt in 13 straight matches.Hewitt has no chance and this line is pointless really.

Tsonga -1250 over Nieminen...Tsonga will win this. No chance of the upset really.Nieminen is done

Lots of big favs....Monfils -620.....Gonzo -1300.....Berdych -715.... None of these will lose but the lines arent playable.

Looking at Almagro +110 over Ginepri. Both havent been playing that great but there last match was a marathon on hard court that was a five set match.Ginepri won that match but Ginepri had problems against Pavel and looked very poor. Going to consider this play, though this is not Almagros best surface...

I am liking Juan carlos Ferrero alot BUT -300 over Petzschner hell no. Way to high

Looks like there might be another day of parlays for me. I may bet one or two of these big favs on the side but there is no way I am going to encourage anyone to pack someone from -400 up no matter who it is.

If you guys have any plays let me know.I need to think of some to add to the parlay tomorrow.

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 10:53 PM

Someone else to consider possibly is Bellucci over Simon.Can get belluci at +231. He has been playing very well lately and has won 11 straight matches, though a bunch of them were on clay. Simon was utter shit in his first round match. Will look at this match more tomorrow

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 10:56 PM

Guess Jankovics grandma died yesterday which could explain why she lost her match today. Wish I had read that before because I would have bet against her.I think she was like -1000 something

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 11:17 PM

Well I was checking through the outrights and saw that Federer was +122 which is great in my opinion. His next matches are Hewitt, Blake, Davydenko and then Djokovic or Roddick. The first three matches are pretty much guaranteed and he will probably beat Djokovic and Roddick so that leaves a +122 line for the final vs Murray/Del Potro or Nadal. Like it alot. Added it

Outrights now are

Safina +1300

Nadal +760

Federer +122

**Stacocakes** · 09-03-09, 11:25 PM

For further emphasis on my futures, my Roger Federer outright is alot more then I put on the other two outrights. Have felt like Roger would win from the start but wanted to find a value play which is why I took Nadal. Hoping for a Nadal Federer final which would be great

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-04-09, 12:30 AM

Guy sucks on hard courts, but Benneteau at -185 might be worth it tomorrow in parlays at least. Troicki apparently having troubles with injuries still. Did not realize until looking how many tourneys he's checked out of in the past month. Also labored against Luczak in a 5 setter to open, blowing a 2 set lead. I am a proponent of fading Simon, but not in this spot. Bellucci is a better clay courter as you pointed out and I think he tends to overhit and go "big" which against the defensive style of Simon might be deadly. I think the next round is the one to get Simon, with either Ferrero or Petzschner.

Didn't realize the news about Jankovic either, would probably explain the big lapses in concentration.

**tbill11** · 09-04-09, 02:47 AM

How about Troicki +155? Looks like Benneteau is getting an inflated line because of his recent run in Cincinnati and Troicki's troubles on hard. But Troicki seemed to pull his sh*t together in the first round. I haven't really been watching though, so this is all speculative and not based on seeing his form. What do you guys think?

**Stacocakes** · 09-04-09, 03:29 AM

Eagles seems to be right about Troici. The reason you can get him at a decent price is because he has lost four of the last five matches and in two of those matches he retired so its probably best to put the money on a different match. I have been there many times in the past where you back a player that is supposedly injured and you cant see the match so you are reading the forums and people are saying he looks injured and the trainer is coming out and blah blah...its just not really worth the pain really and when you factor in this is a major which means troicki would have to play even more sets then normal, even more of a chance he could reaggrevate the injury. Probably best to stay away from that match

**Stacocakes** · 09-04-09, 11:22 AM

Seem to have missed the oppurotunity to get a parlay in again as well. I have gone through what is left for the matches tonight and I dont think I am going to force anything.Just going to do some in-game betting probably for today

**Stacocakes** · 09-04-09, 11:42 AM

Cilic down two sets to love to Levine. Emberassing.I think he was around -500 or -600 favorite. Cilic just cant do it on a big stage. Chokes when he is up and when he is losing he looks unmotivated

**Stacocakes** · 09-04-09, 11:59 AM

Ok here we go.Going to do a parlay.

Monfils/Ferrer/Azarenka/Venus/Zvonareva this pays +183

Am I 100% confident in all of these plays....no. I think Azarenka and Venus will win. Zvonareva SHOULD win and Monfils and Ferrer are inconsistant so just hoping for there good side to show up. Pays a decent +183 so it gives some action for the day at least. Best of luck guys

**Stacocakes** · 09-04-09, 12:16 PM

Hopefully you guys either stayed away from Troicki or bet on Benneteau because Benneteau is up 2 sets to 1 and a break in the fourth.

**Stacocakes** · 09-04-09, 12:20 PM

Berdych -500 and up to anyone is something that should be avoided. He will probably win today but hes a headcase and cant be trusted with big odds like that

**Stacocakes** · 09-04-09, 12:40 PM

Big comeback by Cilic.Going to a fifth set. Whoever plays cilic next round will be the play

**Stacocakes** · 09-04-09, 02:35 PM

Azarenka bows out to schiavonne and blows up my parlay. Geez. Finished before it even started.Should have stayed away today like I said haha

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-04-09, 02:41 PM

Azarenka lost. WTA major tennis. Never bet big favorites other than Serena Williams? Might need to be the new rule. Hope you avoided Bellucci brother. Simon is schooling him through 2 sets. Unfortunately his quick win might keep me away from taking Ferrero against him in the next round after JCF needed a miracle 5 setter to win. JCF did whip his ass at Wimbledon though, will be an interesting line.

Stepanek by the way, a managable -140 at Pinnacle. Verdasco -163 up against Haas, interesting one there - liking Verdasco though I think. Querrey +167 over Soderling. Man, lots of tempting matches coming up on the men's side in the 3rd round!

**Stacocakes** · 09-04-09, 04:07 PM

Ya I avoided Bellucci.ONly play today was the parlay which azarenka killed. Theres no way I would have bet her straight up at those odds but it was one of those plays I figured I would add in to the parlay to sweeten up the odds a bit. Backfired. Always tomorrow.
Havent had a chance to look to tomorrows matches but I love all those matchups that you mentioned for the third round. Verdasco/haas seems like a good matchup. Very tough to figure the winner of that one. Verdasco is in very good form and Haas was in good form but is kinda coasting along right now. Based on form you would have to take Verdasco but I was hoping the odds would be a bit more of a pick em. Soderling/Querrey there have been some issues of Soderlings health recently but he avoided having to play his last match with the other player retiring so he should be rested up for Querrey. Sam is no major threat to anyone good in a major,especially if it goes to five sets. Like Soderling to beat him in that match but -200 blah. Dont know about that. Adding Soderling to a parlay though seems mighty fine to me. 3-0 soderling in his career vs querrey as well. Looks like Querrey has only played a five set match twice and he lost both. Definately think he is an overrated player.

**Stacocakes** · 09-04-09, 04:28 PM

I was trying to jar my memory about Querrey and playing long matches.I remember watching him in a match at last years US open and it was a four set match vs Devidler I believe and Querrey was pretty much the walking dead but he got through the match.He has played the last 7 weeks in a row and that scares me a bit especially since he has been going pretty far into these US tournaments getting to the quarters or semis, even winning one.We saw what a grinding schedule like that can do to a big player like Del Potro so I am hesitant to really back Querrey at all in this tournament.If Soderling is healthy he should win the match though.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-04-09, 04:43 PM

Think back to though to the 4 setter against Nadal last year at the Open. He beat him 7-5 in the 2nd and then sucked it up in a 3rd set tie break. Nadal crushed him in the 4th, but he played well and wasn't nearly the player he is now IMO. His last 5 setter was vs. Cilic at Wimbledon, he lost 6-4 in the 3rd. Soderling has never done well at the Open either. He really only had the one good tourney on hard court this year too, Challenger level where the best he beat was Berdych. I would agree that if it goes five, Querrey might have some issues, but at the price - I think it's Querrey for me.

**Stacocakes** · 09-04-09, 06:19 PM

Venus about to start.She should steamroll in two
Clijsters killing Flipkins
Ferrer coming back against Acasuso.Big surprise a Ferrer match going four or five sets