Stacocakes US Open Thread

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-26-09, 06:24 PM

I'm looking forward to seeing how CrazyLou dresses up picking Federer as some great insightful pick (You know it's true Lou

). I'll be posting my impressions when I see the draws tomorrow. I like to do it kind of like the NCAA hoops tourney, just fill out a bracket based on first looks and see who you like where. This is by far my favorite tournament of the season! Let's all remember our main goal - MAKE SOME MONEY!

**fuglyboy86hi** · 08-26-09, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I'm looking forward to seeing how CrazyLou dresses up picking Federer as some great insightful pick (You know it's true Lou

). I'll be posting my impressions when I see the draws tomorrow. I like to do it kind of like the NCAA hoops tourney, just fill out a bracket based on first looks and see who you like where. This is by far my favorite tournament of the season! Let's all remember our main goal - MAKE SOME MONEY!

found crazy lou pic in this thread

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-bash-august-2009/216194-pictures-sbr-bash-p3.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

u can finally put a face to his picks

and stacocakes, i love ur threads

**Stacocakes** · 08-26-09, 08:29 PM

Thanks Eagles, Fugly. The next two weeks are going to be fun. Lets make some money for all. Look forward to your guys outright considerations after the draws are released tomorrow

**MilfDriller** · 08-27-09, 02:09 AM

Know it's not the USO, but you guys have thoughts on the Verdasco/Melzer match? I don't think Melzer stands a chance. And why the hell is Nando playing this tourney?

**Stacocakes** · 08-27-09, 08:01 AM

Seems Verdasco always plays New Haven right before the US open.Not really sure why he does. Him and Davydenko like to play these smaller tournaments right before the majors because they usually have watered down fields which means they can make some pretty good money at them.Seems he plays alot the week right before a major and he usually gets to the quater finals or the semi finals and bows out. The last three years he has got knocked out in the third round of the US Open and the year prior got knocked out in the fourth round so he probably figures thats how far he will get this year so might as well make some money beforehand. Not sure if I am a fan of the -343 price on Verdasco,especially in a tournament like this so I would personally stay away from that bet.

**MilfDriller** · 08-27-09, 01:03 PM

Good pt. No motivation.... it's just that Melzer is the ultimate dick-choker of all-time. If he were up 5-0 in the 3rd set, you'd still have a chance or a comeback win.

**Stacocakes** · 08-27-09, 01:13 PM

Oh for sure.Melzer is a complete mug

Just a quick look at the draw right now and lets just say that if I dressed up as Rafa and went out there, I could get to the fourth round at least. What a shit draw he has. Check this... gasquet,kiefer,almagro,monfils/ferrer,gonzo/berdych/tsonga. Gasquet is in horrible form so he has no chance. Kiefer comes up big once in awhile but in a best of five vs rafa,no chance. Almagro haha he might not even get that far he is brutal. He has a decent serve and I have picked him before but he just dissapoints continually.No faith in Almagro. Monfils or ferrer.....Ferrer might have another 'leg injury' if they played again. A rusty Nadal was still kicking his ass a couple weeks ago. Monfils is one of those guys with tons of talent but he is injury prone and disapoints as well. If he did beat Nadal I wouldnt be totally surprised but Monfils just hasnt done it enough on the big stage to make you think that he can win a slam at this point. Tsonga or Berdych.....Tomas is so inconsistant that we dont even know if he would get to this point to face Nadal and we know what Nadal did to him the other week. Tsonga is inconsistant as well and not bettable. Nadal is looking good I think

Will be back with more later after I have looked into the draws a bit more.Just the Nadal draw jumped out at me right away

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-27-09, 01:39 PM

MEN'S DRAW 1ST IMPRESSION
1. FEDERER BRACKET
Federer has a very nice draw in his quarter. He could face Hewitt in the 3rd round, but with Hewitt's hip/knee - don't see much trouble. That leads to Blake or Robredo in the 4th, no problems. On the bottom part of the draw, Davydenko, Soderling & Querrey would be the threats. None though pose that much trouble. Federer might have that one match where it gets iffy due to errors, etc. - I'd think that would be the QFs if any against someone like Davydenko perhaps, but this is his to win.
Pick: Federer

2. DJOKOVIC BRACKET
Djokovic is going to get tested out of the gate against Ljubicic, but he has enough game to move on. Should ease to the 3rd round against Andreev perhaps. 4th round would likely be Kohlschreiber or Leonardo Mayer who is an impressive youngster. Kohlschreiber has been pretty bad, so the young gun might make it. Either way, Djokovic should get to the QFs. On the bottom, it's Roddick. He'll get Isner most likely in the 3rd. You've also got Haas & Verdasco down here. This is a very competive part of the draw. Think it will be Verdasco and Rodick, but won't be shocked to see it as Haas and Roddick. Djokovic vs. Roddick might be one of the better matches of the tourney if we get it. Novak desperate to beat him, Roddick knowing he owns him.
Pick: Roddick

3. NADAL BRACKET
Nadal gets Gasquet to start. Normally that might be mouth watering, but Gasquet is going to be rusty - Nadal should make it by. I'm looking at Chardy or Ferrer to face him in the 4th. I think Chardy might beat a rusty Monfils in the opening round. Ferrer by default should get to the 3rd round with no competition in front of him. Up top in this draw, Tsonga should meet Berdych or Gonzalez in the 4th round. Berdych has held an edge over Gonzo lately & Gonzo has a knee issue plus he's not done well at the US Open recently. So for me, Tsonga vs. Berdych. Toss-up there, experience at the Open could get Berdych through. I really think Nadal, Ferrer, Berdych or Tsonga COULD win this draw.
Pick: Nadal?

4. MURRAY DRAW
Not an easy draw for Murray, just because Del Potro will be there. He's going to get Karlovic early, but will progress. Cilic or Wawrinka await in the 4th round. If Cilic can maintain some consistency, he'll be a handful. Up top in this draw, Del Potro should roll. Should be Del Potro vs. Murray. Fitness should prevail again.
Pick: Murray

**ji03** · 08-27-09, 02:07 PM

I really like Mayer to get to the third or fourth round here. He has looked pretty good.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-27-09, 04:49 PM

WOMEN'S DRAW 1st IMPRESSION
1. SAFINA BRACKET
Safina looks like she got a pretty solid top of the half draw where she should be able to get to the QFs with little trouble. I say that because her loss to Rezai in Toronto probably will serve as motivation rather than a deterrent. Bottom half could yield an Ivanovic-Jankovic 4th rounder. This one really looks like it oughta be Safina-Jankovic if both play anywhere near where they have the last few tourneys. Jankovic has better luck as the US Open & Safina still screws the pooch too much to trust.
Pick: Jankovic

2. DEMENTIEVA BRACKET
This is the Russian bracket with #4 Dementieva, #6 Kuznetsova, #13 Petrova, #29 Sharapova - throw in the #9 Wozniacki and this is by far the toughest bracket in the draw. Dementieva & Sharapova shapes up for 3RD ROUND match - normally, that's semifinal/QF quality! Whomever gets by in that one should be the quarterfinalist from the top part of the bracket as they would face Petrova likely in the 4th. Both Dementieva & Sharapova have been playing well late in the summer, so it's a real toss-up. Bottom half, Kuznetsova has the best draw to go deep, but her hard court form sucks. Wozniacki might be getting a little confidence in New Haven this week, but has also struggled on hard court in the summer. By default, I'll say Kuznetsova finds a way to get to the QFs because she has done it here before. I really think the winner of this bracket will be Dementieva or Sharapova. I think Maria has been working hard since returning from her injury perhaps with the US Open as her goal of really making a statement that she is back. Remember the Golden Rule though, never bet Russian vs. Russian which may happen several times in this part of the draw. Take some futures perhaps.
Pick: Sharapova

3. VENUS BRACKET
Starting down low with Venus, she's got a decent draw for the 1st three rounds, but she's going to be up against it by the 4th round. Why? Kim Clijsters who will need to run past Bartoli likely in the 2nd round, but then should be headed to a showdown with Venus. Up top, Azarenka & Aggie Radwanska rank the top two seeds. They both look to have fairly easy routes to go up against each other in a QF. Toss-up as to who will step up there, but Azarenka does hold the head-2-head advantage there. Venus made a semi in 2007 at the US Open, but otherwise doesn't really do that much here.
Pick: Clijsters

4. SERENA BRACKET
Not even gonna waste my time with this. No one in this bracket can hurt Serena if she is focused. Zvonareva is the top seed outside Serena in this bracket and likely might be her QF opponent. She hasn't done enough on hard courts this summer to think she'll be anything but a stepping stone.
Pick: Serena

**Stacocakes** · 08-28-09, 02:11 AM

Eagles you read my mind.My draws are going to be very similar. Heres what I got:

Federer is going to sleepwalk to the semi finals. Gruel, an injured Hewitt, James Blake haha,Davydenko who is 0-12 vs Federer. You can pretty much pencil Federer in to get to this point and probably to win the US Oopen. His odds are +134 and I think that is the play to make but I want some juicy odds so I am going to pass on Federer and take a flyer on another player.

Soderling has been shit since his injury. Cant trust him to do much here. Should be able to get past the first couple of rounds but I think Querrey might have a chance to take him out. Querrey is very good on hardcourt BUT in best of five set matches I am not really a fan of him. I think whoever wins out of Soderlin and Querrery will play Davydenko, who has an easy draw up to this point. I have Davydenko making it to the quarterfinals where he faces Federer and of course loses. No value in any of these players mentioned to win this tournament outright.

Djokovic has a clear path to the quarter-finals where he will probably face Roddick. Djokovic has to play Ljubicic (DONE), a qualifier, Andreev, Kohl or Mayer...... ya Djokovic will sleep walk through these matches. I have Verdasco winning some matches and eventually facing Tommy Haas. I have Haas winning this match and facing off against Andy Roddick with Roddick winning and facing Djokovic in the quarterfinals. Im taking Djokovic here in this match to get to the semis to face federer and of course lose.

Tsonga can get to the quarterfinals I believe in his bracket.He is playing a bunch of stiffs along the way. Nieminen, Benneteau, Gonzalez will put up a good fight and really I can see that match as a complete toss up. Regardless of who wins that match, the winner will be playing Nadal in the quarter finals and lose.

Nadal has gasquet who is washed up, Kiefer,Almagro, MOnfils or Ferrer and then Tsonga or Gonzalez in the quarter finals. Nadal should be able to get to the semis even with his poor form currently. If these matches were a best of 3 type match then the chance of Nadal losing would be a bit greater but a best of five set match I cant see it happening.

Del Potro has some decent matches. Will have to beat Monaco whos not that bad, Safin, Fish, Juan Carlos Ferrero.... and then Andy Murray....God that is a tough match to call. I really have no idea who will win out of Murray and Del Potro in the quarter finals.I am giving Murray the benefit of the doubt due to his better fitness. Del Potro may have some 4 set matches along the way which will start to wear on him by week 2.

The one guy that scares me facing murray is Karlovic. If Ivos serve is on he can beat anyone really BUT its a best of five match and we all know that Karlovic is an absolute piece of shit in five set matches so I still lean towards Murray. Nice matchup with a possible murray and Cilic/Wawrinka. Murray should be able to beat either of those players and probably Del Potro to face Nadal in the semifinals.

What is this draw shaping up to be? Federer vs Nadal. Can never count out a true champion like Nadal. His heart alone will get him 4 rounds deep in this tournament.Monfils,Tsonga and Gonzalez are all players that are very inconsistant so I could also see one or two of those players losing before facing Nadal to make Rafas path even easier to the semis. I dont know what it is but I just dont think Muray can break through and win a major at this point. Is he going to be the Phil Mickelson of Tennis until he breaks through years down the road and finally wins a major once Federer and Rafa are gone?Who knows.For a guy that never wins a major though, his odds are always so low.Its like Safina for **** sakes.Id rather bet a multiple Major winner like Nadal at +760 then to bet Murray at +380.

**Stacocakes** · 08-28-09, 02:26 AM

Womens bracket

Safina is due. She cant keep up the streak of being unable to pull through in majors. She has a decent road to the quarterfinals here. She has Kleybanova, Safarova.....both beatable of course. She faces Jankovic or Ivanovic in the quarters. I think the Jank/Ivan match will be a three set hard fought match and the winner will have nothing left to face Safina in the quarters and will lose to her.

Dementieva plays Sharapova in the third round.Thats kinda shitty.Knock out to of the better players right off the bat. I have Sharapova revenging her rogers cup loss and beating Dementieva in a major where it matters.From here Sharapova will face Petrova who she always beats down and then in the quarters she will face Kuznetsova or Woz. Both are beatable by Maria. Woz has never won a major so I am favoring Kuznetsova to beat her and face Maria in the quarterfinals. I think Maria will win that match and go on to face Safina in the semi finals with.......Safina winning the match. Call me crazy

Im liking Azarenka to do some damage this year. Only real threat before the quarterfinals is Radwanska and she should be able to be Rad because of rads poor service game. In the quarters she will face either Venus or Clijsters. I have no idea who is going to win that match. I am picking Venus to beat Clijsters and then to beat Azarenka to set up an all williams match in the semi finals in which Serena beats Venus.

I have Zvonreva making it to the quarterfinals against Serena where she loses of course. serena doesnt have much to play besides Stosur before the quarterfinals but Serena should be able to get through that.

The two draw winners are Serena and Safina. I have Safina beating Serena to win her first Major the 2009 US OPEN

**Stacocakes** · 08-28-09, 02:27 AM

Outright plays :

Safina +1300

Nadal +760

**tycoondon** · 08-28-09, 03:02 AM

Stacocakes,

Thanks for starting this thread. I would love to see Safina and Serena. Maybe Safina can take all the frustration she has bottled up from months of hearing Serena say she's the real number 1 and really let loose on her, play with abandon, and break through in a major. That would be a good story. Of course, Serena tying Billie Jean King with a 12th major would be a good story. However, Dementieva has been playing lights out and has gotten past her big match yips. She should have beaten Serena at Wimbledon and has played excellently this past few weeks in the US Open Series leadoff tourneys. I see her breaking through. It's one of those 3 for sure. Venus is, after years near the top, starting to show her age and wear and is bowing out earlier these days. Jankovic and Ivanovic were quick rising and quick falling off the map. Sharapova is a great story but I'm just not sure the serve will ever be the same on the rehabbed shoulder. I hope she proves me wrong. Too bad she can't play lefty (or at least serve lefty and then change hands). Clisters will win a couple and continue to garner headlines but will bow out in the round of 16 or the quarters.

**MilfDriller** · 08-28-09, 03:35 AM

No way Rafa wins this. If he's in form, he stands a chance. Not in 100% form, well, no chance.

Can't wait for Muggay vs. Pony ... I thought maybe Pony could be the future, but his giraffe-esque circulation problem may hinder him.. as it does Ivo.

That's too bad.

**fuglyboy86hi** · 08-28-09, 08:24 AM

Which book are u playing at staco?Ive got nadal +400 and safina +1000.Such a huge difference.
JMDP at +1250 is my bet.He has rested enough and he went deep in RG so he can take best of 5 setters.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-09, 12:52 PM

I'm probably gonna deposit an extra $100 or so this weekend just to book some futures, here are the ones I am considering. BetPhoenix lines.

MEN
1. Tsonga +4500. He's the guy who I think can jump up and win the bracket with Nadal as the top seed even if Nadal makes it to the QFS. The head-2-head with Nadal is 3-1 in favor of Nadal, but the last 2 hard court matches were 3 set fights & Tsonga has blown Nadal off the court in a Grand Slam before, straight sets in Australia in 2008. This one will also yield a good hedge opportunity in the 4th round if things fall correctly with Tsonga being a favorite over Berdych or Gonzalez. On the off-chance that Nadal gets beat before the QFs & Tsonga gets there still, then he'll be a big favorite and give yet another hedge opp.

2. Del Potro +1100. I know what I've said in my 1st impressions, but the truth is this kid is gonna get it one day and get to a Slam Final and win one. The hard surface is always going to be his best shot and this set-up could be a good one for him. Andy Murray is the biggest road block to start with in his bracket. Murray beat him a year ago in a great 4 setter where DelPo blew it by getting buried in the tie breaks in the first two sets. That showed in Montreal as well, but DelPo did grab one of the tie breaks there. This is also another that will give some good hedge opportunities if DelPo looks tired or out of sorts. He'll be a big favorite in every match, so picking the right dog to beat him could easily cover your futures bet on him and make a tidy profit.

WOMEN
1. Serena +230. You can say what you want about taking this price on someone, but I took Serena last year at the Open at +250 and that worked out well. A semifinal isn't a given, but with her draw it really should be. That means you should be on cruise control with this future until the semis. Then if you feel it necessary, you should have a good dog price to hedge on her opponent be it her sister or Clijsters or someone else.

2. Sharapova +1300, Safina +1300 or Jankovic +1600. These are solid long shots I think. Sharapova will make you sweat more because she has a harder road. Safina or Jankovic I think will be in the semis and I really think whomever gets out of that bracket could be a finalist. Pick the right one and you have tremendous options down the stretch.

Those are just my thoughts right now. Will obviously lock something up on Saturday night with my book closing futures wagers on Sunday morning.

**MerseysideRed** · 08-28-09, 10:05 PM

It is in Federer pocket,
I will start with 200 and put on every Federer game

Hope it will give some nice results

**Stacocakes** · 08-28-09, 10:15 PM

Look forward to hearing from you guys for the next two weeks
To answer some questions, I dont really think Nadal or Safina will win I just think they have some decent value and can win. If I have either of them in the final I am going to hedge out and guarantee some profits like I did for the rogers cincy masters
The book I use for the futures is Betfair. The odds on futures are so much better on there. If you are able to bet there then I totally recommend it, especially for tennis.Good liquidity for in-game matches and good futures amounts.

Tsonga has very good odds but his dedication to the game is lacking which makes him a very inconsistant player. He doesnt have an easy road to the quarters either because he has to beat Benneteau and gonzalez/berdych. The thing is though that eventhough Tsonga will not win and might not get past the quarters, its hard to say a +4500 play has no value. Those are great odds for anyone.Would really try to shop around though because Tsonga is +7400 at Betfair. Alot more fun to hedge that amount out

I like del Potro alot but these best of 5 set matches really scare me with him. He has had some time to rest though so he should be good to go but I dont think he will make it past Murray.

I think Serena will win as well if I had a gun to my head and had to pick someone. +230 odds arent that bad but would like to get something a bit higher on an outright. If Serena was +400 something it would look alot nicer. Good chance to hedge it though for sure

Sharapova,Safina,Jankovic - Thing that scares me about maria is that she has dementieva early. I liked sharapova to make the semis and would have bet her as an outright if she didnt have dementieva so early.She never gives up though so always a good player to back. Jankovic has a pretty easy ride until she faces ivanovic. At that point its a toss up to me.I think she will beat ivanovic though but lose to Safina in the quarters.Safina has a way easier road to that point and I think the ivanovic/jankovic will be a long draining match so I favor safina at that point. Of course I like your safina pick as well

Let me know who you end up going with Eagles

**Stacocakes** · 08-28-09, 10:16 PM

Mersey I think you will have good results betting Fed every match but the only problems is that his odds will be so high for the majority of the matches so the only time you will really get any decent return is in the semis on

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-09, 10:56 PM

See I don't think Ivanovic is a threat to Jankovic. I won't be shocked if Ana doesn't even make it to that point. Sharapova is a risk and in looking at it, getting Safina at the same odds might be a safer futures shot. Gonna chew on it for a day. DelPo will definitely be one for me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-30-09, 01:13 AM

U.S. Open Futures
1. Serena Williams To Win Outright: 2.5 units at +230
2. Jelena Jankovic To Win Outright: 0.5 units at +1600
2. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga To Make Semis: 1 unit at +330

**Stacocakes** · 08-31-09, 03:49 AM

We have arrived at day one of the US Open.Cant wait. As always, you know what day one and two bring...yup massive lines that are unbettable. This is what I like:

Blake/Ramirez-Hidalgo

James Blake has lost five matches in a row coming into this.Head to head they are 1-1 career. Odds for James Blake at -1150 against anyone at this point are absolutely ridiculous. He has been losing left and right as a big favorite for awhile now. I am going to take Ramirez-Hidalgo at a +895 dog. I think that this will be a good bet to hedge in-game.I can see Blake being in trouble at some point in this match and his odds dipping significantly.

Just going to keep it as that for now. Will probably make another play tomorrow at some point. Have to take it easy on the first days of the tournaments since the lines are so inflated.

Worth looking at is Stepanek over Bolelli. Stepanek is -285 so having him parlayed with something might be a good play. Couldnt see much else I liked so I havent made the parlay yet.Will look again tomorrow.Have time since Stepanek is playing later in the day

Best of luck tomorrow guys.Lets start this tournament off on the right foot

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-31-09, 09:40 AM

Hidalgo seems to be a popular pick around the Internet for an upset. I think the hedge out opportunity is going to be needed. Blake is a POS, but unless his injury status is a real concern - he'll amp it up for at least the 1st round at his favorite tournament (I think). Great odds though to take the dog as you said. GL Staco!

**Stacocakes** · 08-31-09, 11:38 AM

Thanks Eagles.Are you on anyone today?

I see that Gil was -110 about 8 hours ago and is above -140 now.Alot of money seems to be coming in on him

I am going to stay away from the Stepanek parlay. Just going to go with the one bet above for today.Might jump in during an in-game somewhere.

Best of luck guys

**Stacocakes** · 08-31-09, 11:46 AM

Adding a little parlay here to give me something to do today. It pays -160 so its not that bad.

Stepanek/Haas/Venus Williams

**Stacocakes** · 08-31-09, 12:40 PM

No real upsets yet of note
Stosur had alot of problems vs sugyiama but ended up winning in the end

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-31-09, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Thanks Eagles.Are you on anyone today?

Took Isner, Youzhny & Seppi.

**Stacocakes** · 08-31-09, 12:42 PM

Federer gets broken in the second set and is down 3-1. I remember seeing Federer 3-0 at -1200. Those backers must be shitting there pants right now

**Stacocakes** · 08-31-09, 12:43 PM

Nice I liked the Isner play but was reading some other forums and decided against it

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-31-09, 12:54 PM

Yeah I know some guys were saying his retirement in Cincinnati had to do with the ankle he rolled earlier in the summer, but everything I read indicated it was due to exhaustion from the heavier schedule - which was actually not that heavy, just Big John probably didn't expect to win that many matches this summer and play as much. Surface I felt was an edge for him, but we'll see if he holds up. He should have been up 2-0, but blew a break in the 2nd set. Likely going to be 1-1. 3rd set will be huge if Hanescu takes the 2nd. I can see Isner getting beat if Hanescu takes this one and the 3rd.

**Stacocakes** · 08-31-09, 02:09 PM

Nice wins with Isner and Youzhny

Haas hasnt started off the greatest but still a long way to go

Donald Young loses again....wasnt he the next big hope for American tennis?Guess not. Still young though so I guess anything is possible

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-31-09, 02:19 PM

Young's best match I think came against Blake a couple years ago at the Open, but he lost. Ryan Harrison was supposed to be someone who was on the horizon to and that guy is pretty much a Challenger guy for life it appears. Highly doubting that Seppi will make it 3 for 3 today for me, can't remember the last time I went 3-0 on a day, so the percentages say Kohlschreiber will win.

**Stacocakes** · 08-31-09, 04:21 PM

Well the one time I bet against Blake he comes out and kills the guy. Just about to wrap up the first set 6-1.Long way to go but looking like Blake will win easy

Haas having some problems and was almost down 2 sets to 1 but Falla choked in the tiebreak and its now 2-1 Haas in sets

Still no upsets.Has been a pretty uneventful day so far.