8-17

[SSVIR]

Fed and Serena win but crazy chalk so looking at props.

I think Serena comes out motivated right from the first point and wins in straight sets (main wager) but she has also looked lethargic in the 1st sets of many of her recent matches so taking the 2:1 sets wager as a hedge.

2:10pm 519 S.Williams Wins 2-0 -125* vs A Ivanovic to win 3.5 units
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2:10pm 521 S.Williams Wins 2-1 +300* vs A Ivanovic 1 unit to win 3 (hedge)
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2:30pm ATP Tennis 314 Nicolas Mahut +140* vs Blaz Kavcic

Going against the SBR grain on this one and backing a Frenchman with the terrible hard court record (Uh oh). Kavcic has been winning a lot of challenger matches on the hard courts this summer and Mahut has perfected the lose in 1R but I'm going with the more experienced player that needs to win this match ahead of the Open.
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2:30pm ATP Tennis 317 Benjamin Becker -240* vs Pablo Carreno-Busta

Veteran player (Becker) with some good hard court results recently vs clay court specialist that hasn't played a hard court tournament this summer and is 0-5 on the hard courts this year overall.
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4:00pm ATP Tennis 322 Alejandro Gonzalez +135* vs Dustin Brown

Brown is talented but a mental midget and its his first hard court tournament of the summer. Gonzalez has plenty of hard court matches in the last few weeks under his belt and while results have been iffy the losses have been against good hard court players (Tomic, Sock, Stepanek in QF of Bogota).
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I bet on Serena to win individual games each time Ivanovic was serving once they were a few games in and Serena decided to play. Can't recall who mentioned that strategy the other day when there were like 100 breaks in the Sharpova/Ivanovic match but ... thanks for the idea.

In-Play 501 S.Williams wins game 4 of set 1 +145* vs A.Ivanovic 1 unit to win 1.45
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In-Play 501 S.Williams wins game 6 of set 1 +145* vs A.Ivanovic 2 units to win 2.9
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In-Play 501 S.Williams wins game 8 of set 1 +115* vs A.Ivanovic 1 unit to win 1.15
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In-Play 501 S.Williams wins game 10 of set 1 +115* vs A.Ivanovic 1 unit to win 1.15
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In-Play 501 S.Williams wins game 4 of set 2 +120* vs A.Ivanovic 1 unit to win 1.2
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4:00pm 123 R. Federer Wins 2-0 -165* vs D. Ferrer to win 5 units
4:00pm 125 R. Federer Wins 2-1 +305* vs D. Ferrer 2 units (hedge)
In-Play ROGER FEDERER -200 vs DAVID FERRER to win 2.5 units

The Gnat seems to have gotten his game into place after some early struggles adjusting to the hard courts but Roger is 15-0 lifetime, playing well, and appears to be motivated. Roger takes it in straight sets.

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7:00pm 304 N.Rubin Games Won +4 -110* vs B.Klahn to win 1 unit
7:00pm 301 Bradley Klahn -295* vs Noah Rubin to win 3 units

I placed the first wager earlier this morning and after further research I think Klahn wins. Klahn went to Stanford and won an NCAA title and Rubin is going to Wake Forrest and got in this Winston-Salem entry as a result.
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[PharaohUB]

You could just bet Serena to win which is essentially your bet and not pay juice twice.

[pattymayo]

since when are you averse to laying huge chalk? Didn't you lay -650 on Ferrer to hold seve? lol

[SSVIR]

You could just bet Serena to win which is essentially your bet and not pay juice twice.

Serena was -375 (if I recall correctly) so to win 2.5 units I would have to risk 9.375 units.

My way I risk 4.375 to win 3.5 and 1 unit to hedge.

I think she wins 2:0 in sets so this was the best way to accomplish that wager.

[PharaohUB]

Serena was -375 (if I recall correctly) so to win 2.5 units I would have to risk 9.375 units.

My way I risk 4.375 to win 3.5 and 1 unit to hedge.

I think she wins 2:0 in sets so this was the best way to accomplish that wager.

Then the odds you posted don't make sense. You could have made a 3rd wager on Ivanovic to win at +350 and guaranteed a profit.
You picked the only two ways Serena could win. There is no way this would give you better odds overall then just playing her to win. Unless the book is mental.

[PharaohUB]

Nice call either way on the 2-0

[SSVIR]

Added a play

[Simon Gruber]

Rubin also the top recruit in the country in the last 5 years. GL

[PharaohUB]

No response to my post? What book do you use? If you are being honest then I want to know the book so I can shave money out of them. Thanks let me know.

[PharaohUB]

Rubin also the top recruit in the country in the last 5 years. GL

I'm on Rubin too. Good looking player.

[SSVIR]

No response to my post? What book do you use? If you are being honest then I want to know the book so I can shave money out of them. Thanks let me know.

What da' fack are you talking about? I used 5Dimes for this particular wager.

What is your question? These were my exact wagers (props limited to $250 so I had to break into two wagers):

$312.50

$250.00

$562.50

Win

8/17/14 2:00pm Props Tennis 519 S.Williams Wins 2-0 -125* vs Not S.Williams In 2 Sets

$125.00

$100.00

$225.00

Win

8/17/14 2:00pm Props Tennis 519 S.Williams Wins 2-0 -125* vs Not S.Williams In 2 Sets

$100.00

$300.00

$0.00

Loss

8/17/14 2:00pm Props Tennis 521 S.Williams Wins 2-1 +300* vs Not S.Williams In 3 Sets

No "shaving". I could have lost both sides if Ferrer won and broken even if Serena won in 3 sets.

[SSVIR]

Rubin also the top recruit in the country in the last 5 years. GL

Excellent year on the junior circuit but he's too small right now to beat a professional in my opinion.

[Simon Gruber]

Excellent year on the junior circuit but he's too small right now to beat a professional in my opinion.

He could beat Falla in straight sets.

[PharaohUB]

What da' fack are you talking about? I used 5Dimes for this particular wager.

What is your question? These were my exact wagers (props limited to $250 so I had to break into two wagers):

$312.50

$250.00

$562.50

Win

8/17/14 2:00pm Props Tennis 519 S.Williams Wins 2-0 -125* vs Not S.Williams In 2 Sets

$125.00

$100.00

$225.00

Win

8/17/14 2:00pm Props Tennis 519 S.Williams Wins 2-0 -125* vs Not S.Williams In 2 Sets

$100.00

$300.00

$0.00

Loss

8/17/14 2:00pm Props Tennis 521 S.Williams Wins 2-1 +300* vs Not S.Williams In 3 Sets

No "shaving". I could have lost both sides if Ferrer won and broken even if Serena won in 3 sets.

I'll do math tomorrow but there is no way picking the two options for someone to win makes more sense than picking them to win. It's simple statistics. Didn't want to work on this, but I will tomorrow.

[SSVIR]

Rubin is a retriever with not a ton of offense and Klahn serves like he plays on the WTA tour.

Klahn wins every first serve point he gets in but only gets about 10% of them in and double faults twice per game.

That's my takeaway thus far 1.5 sets in.

[sluggy1616]

I'll do math tomorrow but there is no way picking the two options for someone to win makes more sense than picking them to win. It's simple statistics. Didn't want to work on this, but I will tomorrow.

Pharroh, I think your confusing the probability of winning(ml) versus the probability of how you win.(sets)

There is some weighting between the 2 sets scenarios that will equal the money line(books weighted probability of each outcome will equal the ML), but a bettor can weight the sets scenario differently than what the book does and win the bet if they are right. ie come out better than ml odds

[SSVIR]

That was a dirty victory in the Klahn/Rubin match.

Klahn is a clown.