what to do with a Genie Bouch 70-1 future???

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

Seeing 'Pova listed at -345.
Ugh.
Have $15 on Genie at 70-1, had 2 futures bets coming in, her and Ivanovic, was hoping one of them got this far, but w/ this price on 'Pova...I'm at a bit of a loss.

thoughts?

[frugalgambler]

Nice one. I'd hedge to the max. I think if Genie beats Masha she'll be at least 50/50 in the final so you can plan accordingly.

[EmpireMaker]

Sharpova is a slow starter, the way to hedge would be to bet Sharapova LIVE IN MATCH when she gets behind. The other option is to let it ride.

[frugalgambler]

Maria can be a slow starter when her opp plays great from the beginning. Who is to say that Genie will not have the jitters tomorrow and does not start slowly herself ?

[MickeyMan]

I would never hedge on a -300 unless it's a crazy amount of money not for a $1050 payout...if genie does win you will eat up most of your profits hedging if you start now. Like empire said, hope for a fast start and then get better odds or if she wins the first set take pova to win the second and maybe hit both

[EaglesPhan36]

Brain fried, is my math right possible $1050 payoff?

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

$1050 payout, yes.

I would never hedge on a -300 unless it's a crazy amount of money not for a $1050 payout...if genie does win you will eat up most of your profits hedging if you start now. Like empire said, hope for a fast start and then get better odds or if she wins the first set take pova to win the second and maybe hit both

Yeah, this is where my brain is at the moment. Thanks for the live bet idea, I may do that. Was really pulling for muggy today as I imagine that line would be pretty close to a pickem between genie and muggy. Got some time to tjink this one out...

[beefcake]

Sharpova is a slow starter, the way to hedge would be to bet Sharapova LIVE IN MATCH when she gets behind. The other option is to let it ride.

This..

[EaglesPhan36]

My personal opinion is hedge ahead of time to some extent be it straight on the Sharapova ML or taking another future. First time Slam semifinalists rarely produce well against veterans in this sort of spot.

[Cessation]

First time Slam semifinalists rarely produce well against veterans in this sort of spot.

Second time for Bouchard. She was nervous as penetrate against Na Li at the Aus.

Personally I think you just have to let it ride. Hedging off if Bouchard wins the first set would be your next best option. For a $15 bet I'd leave it to the final to hedge.

[EaglesPhan36]

Oh fukk ... yeah forgot about that. Shows much attention I pay to the WTA.

[kenz]

Another angle for you

Huge gossips/truth about Dimitrov cheating on Masha with Bouchard in Acapulco

Masha wont show mercy + Bouchard not ready for a GS final to beat "Queen of Clay"

[matt1216]

Another angle for you

Huge gossips/truth about Dimitrov cheating on Masha with Bouchard in Acapulco

Masha wont show mercy + Bouchard not ready for a GS final to beat "Queen of Clay"

Yeah actually, this could be deadly for Bouchard... I forgot about that...

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

lolz @ the cheating, maybe the first ever cat fight at the net after a match?

pova is down to -305 overnight, her future is at +105 to win it, I think that's my play if any as whomever comes out of the other end of the draw will be a dog in the final, I would think.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think that's the smart move. Good luck on getting a greenout situation in the Final in some way shape or form Bruce!

[JC1186]

It's 1K and Maria is a huge favourite.

Sorry but it isn't hedging material. Unless you're a clutching at whatever you can get kind a guy.

[JC1186]

Another angle for you

Huge gossips/truth about Dimitrov cheating on Masha with Bouchard in Acapulco

Post a link kenz.

I'm usually up to date with those kind of things haha. But never heard a thing. Just saw that Nike publicity stunt of theirs out on the water which everyone was making a big deal about because they're morons.

[EaglesPhan36]

All you have to do is Google. C'mon.

I guess everyone on here is rich, talking like a grand is no big deal. I think to most people it is. Especially considering the small investment made. Whole point of futures in my book is to make a profit, be it $50 or $500. If you're just playing it to hope to get lucky and hit big or get your player in a Final, I think you are not necessarily utilizing those to their best. Just my two cents.

[shari91]

All you have to do is Google. C'mon.

I guess everyone on here is rich, talking like a grand is no big deal. I think to most people it is. Especially considering the small investment made. Whole point of futures in my book is to make a profit, be it $50 or $500. If you're just playing it to hope to get lucky and hit big or get your player in a Final, I think you are not necessarily utilizing those to their best. Just my two cents.

Yeah I don't get that mentality and knowing Bruce that's not his style either. It's not the fact that it's "only a $15 bet" - it's all of a sudden you have a good chance to make a hell of a lot better ROI than what most of us get on our wagers. Some people just splash out cash on futures and cross their fingers until their player busts out... others look for chances to greenout for guaranteed cash while hopefully still leaving a bit available in case she wins it all. We fall in the second category as does from memory of the several future bets we've had in common over the years. Just my two cents Bruce... Empire's live strategy and the Maria future are the two options I'd toss up. GL!!!

[MickeyMan]

It's not that $1000 isn't a lot of money it's that it's not enough to be hedging with -300 bets.

[EaglesPhan36]

He didn't have too though, there were other reasonable options that required nothing more than a +105 investment .
Sometimes you do get stuck due to prices, but with Slams where futures are posted deep into tourneys ... You will have a good option to take.

[MickeyMan]

Ahh yeah didn't see that post, definitely taking the +105 to win it all is the better hedging option

[Bumdeal]

I took Bouchard, $20 at 20-1. No hedging options for me so GOOO GENIE!!!

[shari91]

I took Bouchard, $20 at 20-1. No hedging options for me so GOOO GENIE!!!

You bloody legend. I hope you win this. If she makes it to the Final I'll probably cry.

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

It's 1K and Maria is a huge favourite.

Sorry but it isn't hedging material. Unless you're a clutching at whatever you can get kind a guy.

I am a clutching at guaranteed profits kind of guy

Yeah I don't get that mentality and knowing Bruce that's not his style either. It's not the fact that it's "only a $15 bet" - it's all of a sudden you have a good chance to make a hell of a lot better ROI than what most of us get on our wagers.

exactly
I'm no big-timer, I'm a recreational gambler, like most of us

Ahh yeah didn't see that post, definitely taking the +105 to win it all is the better hedging option

yep

that being said...GO GENIE!

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

oh well, nice effort by Genie.

put a couple units on both maria 2-0 and 2-1 (at 3-1) today so I've recouped a good bit on the hedge

big petco fan now with the Maria future for another hedge opp!

[MickeyMan]

Glad you got something out of it