Ferrer D -200 ML vs Nishikori

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  • ap1ftw
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-22-14
    • 671

    #1
    Ferrer D -200 ML vs Nishikori
    I'm definitely leaning towards Ferrer at the price of -200. Anyone going to play this game?
  • SirtySree
    SBR MVP
    • 12-19-13
    • 2370

    #2
    I too like the price. Will wait till game time since the line seems to be moving up. Not a lock tho obviously but there is definitely value on betting Ferrer as opposed to Nish.

    Two very similar style of play but imo, Ferrer is a better version of Nish so what I expect is similar statistics but just more unforced errors from Nish being the difference.

    Nish is on pretty good form and Ferrer is coming back from injury hence the line being the way it is and ppl betting mostly on Nish. However, Ferrer looks fine to me with no real sign of the injury and played pretty well in the two games previous.

    I will most likely bet twice my standard bet so nothing overly much but just slightly more than what my usual bet size is.
    Comment
    • ap1ftw
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 01-22-14
      • 671

      #3
      thanks for the info.

      i was thinking about smashing ferrer ML -200, then carry over to the Murray game and smash -300 ML as well. Anyone think it's a good plan?
      Comment
      • matt1216
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 10-27-11
        • 14683

        #4
        Originally posted by ap1ftw
        thanks for the info.

        i was thinking about smashing ferrer ML -200, then carry over to the Murray game and smash -300 ML as well. Anyone think it's a good plan?
        No, not at all. I watched nishi play Dimitrov, the guy was dominating. My play on the (starting odds of a Nishi @ 3.00 is 5-0 this tournament) not saying nishi is going to win, but my trend plus the matchup IMO is close. Ferrer coming off a injury but he really hasn't been tested. Gabashville had ferrer at break point about 6 times and failed to convert. Ferrer steam rolled Seppi, but who hasn't this year.... Nishi played matosevic and had a decent win. Nishi also beat Dimtrov who really looked out matched badly. Nishi has beaten ferrer 2 times so it's not foreign territory. In the End Nishikoris opponents have been a far greater test that ferrers as well.

        I watched Tsonga vs Baggy and Tsonga looked OK. He should have lost the match but baggy blew a 5-1 tiebreaker lead... Tsongas forehands let him down a lot. Baggy had him at Duece for a lot of the second and 3rd set. Murray has looked good with the ground strokes vs lopez. Not that many errors. Since the first set vs ebden, he's been fairly reliable. He's currently in better form than Tsonga. Beware though, if Tsonga wakes up at all Andy will be in trouble.
        Comment
        • ap1ftw
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 01-22-14
          • 671

          #5
          Putting up 10 units to win 5 on Ferrer. I'm on a losing streak. FADE me!!!
          Comment
          • ap1ftw
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 01-22-14
            • 671

            #6
            Matt, thanks for the information and advice. Even though I went against your pick, at least you told me so!!
            Comment
            • ap1ftw
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 01-22-14
              • 671

              #7
              Will now just go to sleep and wake up seeing whatever the outcome will be. Good luck everyone!
              Comment
              • tipsadontlikehim
                SBR MVP
                • 11-14-13
                • 2569

                #8
                Nishikori was something like 17 yo when he beat Ferrer at the US open.
                and he beat him again at the London olympics.
                Comment
                • zec
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 01-03-14
                  • 548

                  #9
                  I am confident about Ferrer but there is not much value on Murray IMO
                  Comment
                  • kenz
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-09-12
                    • 4879

                    #10
                    Murray 2-1 @3.75 if you dont like ML @1.35
                    Comment
                    • kenz
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-09-12
                      • 4879

                      #11
                      bet365 has Andrew Murray - JWT which is funny. Why just not Andy?
                      Comment
                      • tipsadontlikehim
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-14-13
                        • 2569

                        #12
                        i think his real name is Andrew but everyone call him Andy ^.^
                        Comment
                        • tipsadontlikehim
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-14-13
                          • 2569

                          #13
                          It's like Pablo Andujar-Alba or Marcel Granollers-Pujol, most books won't write their full name
                          Comment
                          • MUHerd37
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-23-09
                            • 12816

                            #14
                            I'm staying away but I lean Nishi. Hate to fade my boy.
                            Comment
                            • JustSomeCash
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 11-26-13
                              • 561

                              #15
                              Ferrer mybe is not good as in the past,but I rem last year,when he starts slow and at the end this was one of the best years he had,I dont underestimate Nishi but Ferrer certainly able to destroy him,last year when they met on Medium – Slow hard courts (AO,Miami) Ferrer won twice,62 61 64 ; 64 62 - although Nishi improved than last year, still he isnt won any big player,except Berdych in Kooyong (ex tur),most of his games was against low level players (Mtosevic,Karlovic,Lajovic,Elias,Backer, Bogolomov,Russel,Gilardo,Young),so for me I prefer to back Ferrer.
                              Comment
                              • fcmb
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 03-02-14
                                • 628

                                #16
                                Nishikoris game style will cause a lot of problems to Bulgarian. I believe that Nishikori will be more reliable in rallies today and with his fighting spirit he could cause a "mental collapse" of Grigor. Grigor is solid but Kei is better currently and also H2H is in his favour(4-0 ; 8-1 in sets).

                                This is what i wrote in thread before the match between Kei and Grigor.

                                About todays match: 2 players with very similar style of play , both patient and reliable in rallies. But.. David is more reliable, he is more patient, he is just better.. Ferrer very rarely loses to players ranked lower than he is and i just can"t see how could Nishikori beat him today.. It often happens that Kei lose his focus in match against players who make him work hard for every point..

                                Imo Nishikori just do not have a weapon with which he could defeat David today. Btw David is defending a lot of points there(he played in FINAL 2013) and surface is just "made for him" . The slowest possible hard courts are surely an advantage for Ferrer!

                                ​Oh yeah and David beat Kei in Miami 2013 2:0 !
                                Comment
                                • tipsadontlikehim
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-14-13
                                  • 2569

                                  #17
                                  LIVE play
                                  Ferrer SET 2 @1.94
                                  Comment
                                  • ap1ftw
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 01-22-14
                                    • 671

                                    #18
                                    Ferrer making a come back!
                                    Comment
                                    • PharaohUB
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-23-07
                                      • 4865

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by tipsadontlikehim
                                      LIVE play
                                      Ferrer SET 2 @1.94
                                      nice call
                                      Comment
                                      • ap1ftw
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 01-22-14
                                        • 671

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by tipsadontlikehim
                                        LIVE play
                                        Ferrer SET 2 @1.94
                                        nice, cash it
                                        Comment
                                        • ap1ftw
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 01-22-14
                                          • 671

                                          #21
                                          going into the 3rd set guys!!
                                          Comment
                                          • tipsadontlikehim
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-14-13
                                            • 2569

                                            #22
                                            Thanksss
                                            Comment
                                            • ChasingInle
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 02-18-14
                                              • 146

                                              #23
                                              Ferrer is such an idiot. Don't know why he didn't take 5 seconds longer before serving when he was clearly out of breath.
                                              Comment
                                              • Hardcoar
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 02-17-13
                                                • 15606

                                                #24
                                                Comment
                                                • Cappinpicks
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 03-11-10
                                                  • 14986

                                                  #25
                                                  Never bet against special K
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Cappinpicks
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 03-11-10
                                                    • 14986

                                                    #26
                                                    saved those match points like bruce lee
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ap1ftw
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 01-22-14
                                                      • 671

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by ap1ftw
                                                      Putting up 10 units to win 5 on Ferrer. I'm on a losing streak. FADE me!!!

                                                      Good job to all that faded me lmao....told you all!!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • matt1216
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-27-11
                                                        • 14683

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by ap1ftw
                                                        Good job to all that faded me lmao....told you all!!!
                                                        Because we all based are play off fading you....
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ap1ftw
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-22-14
                                                          • 671

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by matt1216
                                                          Because we all based are play off fading you....
                                                          I was hoping the reverse jinx would work.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • AceAce
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 02-23-14
                                                            • 158

                                                            #30
                                                            I was on ferrer ml but I'm not even mad, probably one of the best matches I've seen this year
                                                            Comment
                                                            • ap1ftw
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 01-22-14
                                                              • 671

                                                              #31
                                                              name of the game. it's a new day so lets go!!!
                                                              Comment
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