ITT I Bet Air

**Marillion** · 04-11-14, 02:37 PM

Hozumi to defeat Chan (1.50) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 04-11-14, 02:39 PM

Imanishi to defeat Lerparcatnatgjneafgn (1.36) - 1 unit

**Cappinpicks** · 04-11-14, 02:51 PM

u went from air to big bets on random players lol

**Marillion** · 04-11-14, 03:04 PM

I actually bet really small money, as I have a lot of life expenses now and I can't set aside money for betting, once I manage to grind that bankroll on PokerStars, I may set aside something... 44 USD is the br on Stars now lol.

**Marillion** · 04-11-14, 03:37 PM

Coppejans to defeat Schwartzman (3.00) - 0.5 unit loss
Carballes Baena to defeat Andrey Kuznetsov (1.66) - 2 units win
Carballes Baena to defeat Andrey Kuznetsov (1.72) - 2 units win
Rybarikova to defeat Suarez Navarro (2.20) - 0.5 unit loss
Jankovic - Arruabarena-Vecino over 17.5 games (1.83) - 4 units win
Garcia to defeat Oprandi (2.37) - 4 units win

Wins-Losses-Void
206-134-16

total units risked: 613.64

YTD
+58.20 units

ROI
9.48%

**Marillion** · 04-12-14, 01:04 AM

Gimeno-Traver to defeat Kubot (1.40) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 04-12-14, 01:06 AM

Volandri to defeat Berrer (1.61) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 04-12-14, 02:41 AM

Garcia to defeat King (1.66) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 04-12-14, 02:46 AM

Radwanska - Cornet over 19.5 games (1.80) - 1 unit
Garcia-Lopez to defeat Carballes Baena (1.40) - 1 unit
Delbonis to defeat Granollers (1.72) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 04-12-14, 03:17 AM

Cornet +5.5 games (vs A. Radwanska) (1.83) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 04-12-14, 01:13 PM

Carreno Busta to defeat Donskoy (1.66) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 04-12-14, 01:30 PM

Hozumi to defeat Fujiwara (1.36) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 04-12-14, 01:37 PM

Hozumi to defeat Chan (1.50) - 1 unit win
Imanishi to defeat Lertpitaksinchai (1.36) - 1 unit win
Gimeno-Traver to defeat Kubot (1.40) - 1 unit loss
Volandri to defeat Berrer (1.61) - 2 units win
Garcia to defeat King (1.66) - 1 unit win
Radwanska - Cornet over 19.5 games (1.80) - 1 unit win
Garcia-Lopez to defeat Carballes Baena (1.40) - 1 unit win
Delbonis to defeat Granollers (1.72) - 2 units loss
Cornet +5.5 games (vs A. Radwanska) (1.83) - 2 units win

Wins-Losses-Void
213-136-16

total units risked: 625.64

YTD
+60.78 units

ROI
9.71%

**pley1234** · 04-12-14, 03:17 PM

looks like Hozumi is on a streak

**Marillion** · 04-12-14, 03:29 PM

Something like that... that Fujiwara has been in a pretty poor form. Only a close win over Samantha Murray today, and Murray seems to be better on fast indoor hard than on outdoor hard (I've seen a match of hers in Preston).

Of course, all of the above is some pretty wild guessing but it's enjoyable.

**Marillion** · 04-12-14, 04:05 PM

Giorgi to defeat Cornet (1.90) - 1 unit

I love Alize and hate to bet against her but still.

**Marillion** · 04-13-14, 03:02 AM

Garcia +5.5 games against Jankovic (1.72) - 4 units

**Marillion** · 04-13-14, 03:18 AM

V. Pospisil to defeat Bautista-Agut (5.50) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 04-13-14, 03:24 AM

Lim to defeat Linette (1.66) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 04-13-14, 03:54 AM

Majeric to defeat Amanmuradova (1.40) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 04-13-14, 03:58 AM

Majeric to win first set against Amanmuradova (1.50) - 3 units

**Marillion** · 04-13-14, 07:06 AM

Anderson to defeat Monfils (2.62) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 04-13-14, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by Marillion

Btw I can't pick up futures at 365 (not for smaller tournaments) but I think there is some very good value for Cornet to win Katowice. In Betfair, you can bet on that at 12.5 or 14 odds, I am not sure, as I have never used that site and don't know how it works.
But if I had money, I would definitely go there and put some funds on her. The only player in this tournament Alizee will be a significant underdog to is Radwanska.

Well my bet on Giorgi ML lost but at least I can quote that in my thread and say - see, Cornet won the tourney!

(funny thing is Pironkova had approximately the same odds for winning the tournament... no idea what bookies thought there)

**Marillion** · 04-13-14, 12:49 PM

Andujar to defeat Roger-Vasselin (1.90) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 04-13-14, 01:37 PM

Dimitrov to defeat Granollers (1.40) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 04-13-14, 01:46 PM

Porter to defeat Kovalets (3.25) - 0.5 unit

**fitguy67** · 04-13-14, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by Marillion

Wins-Losses-Void
213-136-16

total units risked: 625.64

YTD
+60.78 units

ROI
9.71%

big

and

to this thread...

quik q about bet-sizing...seems that everything's been between 1* and 3* so far...think there might have been a 4* or two in there but i don't want to kill my eyes checking...

can a tail-gater know that your usual is 2*
1*, even as low as 0.5* for the occasional (usually hi-payout) flier
3*, possibly even up to _______* (as i said, i think 3*/maybe 4* is the highest i seem to recall...and wonder if there's anything even-higher possible) are for the strongest plays "worth" risking the extra jam

great job, Marillion and good luck on the poker-grind

**Marillion** · 04-14-14, 01:27 AM

Smyczek to defeat Dancevic (1.50) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 04-14-14, 01:44 AM

Thanks a lot for the kind words, sir. As for the units - they are between 0.5 and 4. In the beginning, I was a bit clueless about how I should use bet sizing but stuff now is: fat value, advantage over the line (and/or I think I have some really good grasp on the game) - 4 units. 0.5 unit or 1 unit is if I find value to be not that much or if these are some lower ranked players I know mainly by stats. However, these are only tendencies, it is not a fixed "system" and there is no standard bet size.

Carreno Busta to defeat Donskoy (1.66) - 2 units loss
Hozumi to defeat Fujiwara (1.36) - 1 unit win
Giorgi to defeat Cornet (1.90) - 1 unit loss
Garcia +5.5 games against Jankovic (1.72) - 4 units win
Porter to defeat Kovalets (3.25) - 0.5 unit win

Wins-Losses-Void
216-138-16

total units risked: 634.14

YTD
+62.14 units

ROI
9.8%

**kenz** · 04-14-14, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by Marillion

V. Pospisil to defeat Bautista-Agut (5.50) - 1 unit

???

Beat 4 nobodies in tennis in 2014 in hard courts (where he plays better) still Ebden game was 99.99% not clean.
On a 4 game-losing streak after withdrawal against Wawrinka in 2014 in hardcourts.

For clay, 1 Davis Cup win on clay 3 years ago in his career but no wins on main draws.

His game character is play fast, hit winners. He cant break opponent easily and now it is on clay

You are doing very good here Marillion, but I guess this one is an air bet

**kenz** · 04-14-14, 02:00 AM

In less than 2 months you made 380 plays. This week,given the pace, you should surpass 450 and it will be roughly 2 months. You are up 60+ units with this volume. Remarkable success from an air bettor who introduced himself humbly in the first post of the thread

**Marillion** · 04-14-14, 02:17 AM

Thanks a lot kenz. As mentioned somewhere above, I am now betting money, small stuff really but that's what I can afford for now (so it is in practice still air).

You are right in what you are saying but I just thought the line on Pospisil was too high. As for his recent form - well, he was injured and has started playing, then he posted on FB and Twitter stuff like "OK I don't feel at 100% but I need some practice, I'm not far from getting back to top form etc. etc.). He has already had 4 matches, so he shouldn't be rusty + Bautista-Agut is not a clay court expert, unlike most Spaniards.

That was pretty much what I thought, it may be flawed, of course.

**Marillion** · 04-14-14, 04:13 AM

Butorac/Klaasen to defeat Mirnyi/Youzhni (2.10) - 1 unit
Anderson/J. Melzer to defeat Chardy/Simon (1.72) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 04-14-14, 04:27 AM

Babos/Chan to defeat Krunic/Vrlijc (1.36) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 04-14-14, 04:43 AM

Pospisil +5.5 games against Bautista-Agut (1.61) - 4 units
Pospisil - Bautista-Agut over 19.5 games (1.72) - 4 units