ITT I Bet Air

[kenz]

Wish you did not trust the turd that much

BOL in your next plays, you have one of the better bankroll management threads in the forum, traceable and safely in green. You are doing great

[Marillion]

Thanks a lot sir. Actually I made a pretty stupid mistake from a bankroll point of view (backing Pospisil was probably another one but this is a different topic) betting a total amount of 9 units on this match while I stated I don't bet more than 4. I did the same with the Majeric match tomorrow but I've learned my lesson.

[Marillion]

Kyrgios to defeat Jenkins (1.50) - 2 units

Missed fat value, as the line opened at 1.72 but I still think it's worth it.

[Marillion]

A bad day (even Gilles Simon won his doubles match, that doesn't happen often), I am not unhappy with the Pospisil bet (good or not, it was what I thought of the match by the time I placed it) but with risking more than needed on a single event. Anyway, we go on to another day, let's hope it will be better! Let's hope Kyrgios, Majeric, Grigor, etc. do their job!

V. Pospisil to defeat Bautista-Agut (5.50) - 1 unit loss
Andujar to defeat Roger-Vasselin (1.90) - 2 units win
Butorac/Klaasen to defeat Mirnyi/Youzhni (2.10) - 1 unit loss
Anderson/J. Melzer to defeat Chardy/Simon (1.72) - 1 unit loss
Pospisil +5.5 games against Bautista-Agut (1.61) - 4 units loss
Pospisil - Bautista-Agut over 19.5 games (1.72) - 4 units loss

Wins-Losses-Void
217-143-16

total units risked: 647.14

YTD
+52.94 units

ROI
8.18%

[Dmoneytx]

Tough one on the Pops match man, you will get it back. I was on Agut, but only to finish a parlay at -750..

Dude, you are doing a great job here man. I wish you the best of luck & hope it continues

[fitguy67]

Lim to defeat Linette (1.66) - 1 unit

hey, Mar...

i'm trying to figure out how in hell Lim got favored here...
*lower ranked player
*h2h: 0-2 (matches), 0-4 (sets) <all on clay, while this is hard>
*only thing remotely in Lim's "favor" is slightly less dreadful recently (L10: 4 vs. just 2 wins)

i'm starting to warm up to Cappin'picks theory that books sometimes make the player they expect to lose "look" more attractive with "intriguing" (aka. exactly opposite to what they should be) odds, knowing that wannabe sharp cats will assume the books "know something" we don't know and bet accordingly...throwing more $ on the garbage side the books want us to

surprise: linette just spanked Lim's ass for the fifth straight set...so whatever the book's "knew" in setting the odds counter to common sense seems to have been bullshit...and bettors obviously fell for it...cause Lim closed the favorite as well...

not bitching at all...was just a 1* anyhow...but trying to learn along the way...and i'm starting to pick up a fair bit of "emperor's new clothes" horseshit the books pull on us...and we cooperate

the next time it looks like the books are puting a "lipstick" line on a pig...i'm not falling for it...i'll take the "rightful favorite" at dog odds, thank you very much...

update: as i typed this, Linette the "rightful favorite" bageled Lim...no surprise at all: making it 3 straight straight-set victories over her lower-ranked opponent...no intrigue, no trap at all in going with the better player...

[Marillion]

I think odds may have been fair, as Linette has been horrible recently. It may have been a bad bet, indeed. I like some of your points (except for the "higher ranked" one... you know 124 vs 145 doesn't mean much).

What you are saying about "trap lines"... well it might be true on certain occasions but I prefer to keep things simple and not thing much about such stuff. If you just look at a line and think if it holds value or not, you just avoid the possibility of levelling yourself.

[Marillion]

Pouille to defeat Sorensen (1.61) - 1 unit

[Marillion]

Kutrovsky to defeat Torebko (1.53) - 2 units

Kutrovsky has been in a good form recently and has already had two matches on clay this year (for Davis Cup... for some reason, Tennis Explorer's stats are saying that he hasn't played on clay in 2014, this is wrong). I like him to win here.

ed: matches have actually been 3 if you count the doubles with Dimitrov

[Marillion]

Kutrovsky to defeat Torebko (3.00) - 2 units

Well f me if this is a fix or anything (sick odds movement) but I don't understand the line movement. Dimi has been solid and has stated that his aim for this year is to get into top 200. He should be the better player. If not, I will learn another lesson.

[Marillion]

And of course the Bulgarian mug is throwing the match and makes a double fault or two when a game is close just to make it sure.

[Marillion]

Tough one on the Pops match man, you will get it back. I was on Agut, but only to finish a parlay at -750..

Dude, you are doing a great job here man. I wish you the best of luck & hope it continues

Hey man, thanks a lot. You have an awesome pic with Dreddy! Two pretty bad days in a row but let's hope better days come. I wonder if the last match was fixed but however. : )

Majeric to defeat Amanmuradova (1.40) - 2 units win
Majeric to win first set against Amanmuradova (1.50) - 3 units loss
Anderson to defeat Monfils (2.62) - 1 unit loss
Dimitrov to defeat Granollers (1.40) - 2 units win
Smyczek to defeat Dancevic (1.50) - 2 units loss
Kyrgios to defeat Jenkins (1.50) - 2 units win
Kutrovsky to defeat Torebko (1.53) - 2 units loss
Kutrovsky to defeat Torebko (3.00) - 2 units loss

Wins-Losses-Void
220-148-16

total units risked: 663.14

YTD
+43.34 units

ROI
6.54%

[Marillion]

Hsu to defeat Kontaveit (5.00) - 0.5 unit

[Marillion]

Lorenzi to defeat Torebko (1.11) - 1.36 units

The sole purpose of this bet is to round up my "total units risked" amount, as this 663.14 looks ugly. Torebko won a fixed match against a mediocre player with no power, no speed and a two-handed forehand yesterday, it was difficult for him to win even a fixed match because he played absolutely horrible (committed about 18 double faults) and I just want him to lose as badly as possible. He doesn't stand a chance against the grinder Lorenzi.

[Marillion]

Dodig/Melo to defeat Chardy/Simon (1.36) - 3 units

[Marillion]

Skupski/Skupski to defeat Monroe/Young (1.66) - 2 units

[kenz]

Lorenzi to defeat Torebko (1.11) - 1.36 units

The sole purpose of this bet is to round up my "total units risked" amount, as this 663.14 looks ugly. Torebko won a fixed match against a mediocre player with no power, no speed and a two-handed forehand yesterday, it was difficult for him to win even a fixed match because he played absolutely horrible (committed about 18 double faults) and I just want him to lose as badly as possible. He doesn't stand a chance against the grinder Lorenzi.

Fix alert

[Marillion]

Thanks sir. I thought fixers would avoid fixing two consecutive matches of one and the same player, especially when Torebko's previous match was an obvious fix with huge line movement on all the public-known books like Betfair, 365, etc.

[Marillion]

Wawrinka to defeat Cilic (1.50) - 2 units

[Marillion]

Fognini to defeat Tsonga (1.66) - 4 units

[Marillion]

Wawrinka to defeat Almagro (1.44) - 3 units

[Marillion]

And Lorenzi cruised against Torebko 6-0 6-2, yey!

[Marillion]

Babos/Chan to defeat Krunic/Vrlijc (1.36) - 1 unit win
Hsu to defeat Kontaveit (5.00) - 0.5 unit loss
Pouille to defeat Sorensen (1.61) - 1 unit loss
Lorenzi to defeat Torebko (1.11) - 1.36 units win
Dodig/Melo to defeat Chardy/Simon (1.36) - 3 units win
Skupski/Skupski to defeat Monroe/Young (1.66) - 2 units win
Wawrinka to defeat Cilic (1.50) - 2 units win

Wins-Losses-Void
225-150-16

total units risked: 674

YTD
+45.75 units

ROI
6.79%

[Marillion]

Oudin to defeat Vinogradova (1.44) - 1 unit

[txrangers]

Thank you.

[Marillion]

Erm... for nothing. I hope the good run continues... : )

Dimitrov to defeat Ferrer (3.40) - 1 unit

[Marillion]

Boleli/Fognini to defeat Peya/Soares (2.75) - 2 units

[Marillion]

Arevalo/Barrientos to defeat King/Kutrovsky (1.44) - 3 units
Larcher de Brito to defeat Kontaveit (2.00) - 1 unit

[Marillion]

Linette to defeat Shuai Zhang (3.50) - 4 units

[Hardcoar]

Something that strikes me as funny is that Linette's prefered surface is by far clay, and the opposite is true for Shuai Zhang (the world needs more Zhangs, really... I love telling these bitches apart from one another). It would almost seem as though it's the other way around at this point, with Linette resurgent on hard-court and Zhang struggling against scrubs while bashing skulls in at Charleston.

[Marillion]

Yeah, you are right. I saw a bit of Linette vs Kichenok and it was a blitzkrieg with a classy ball hitting from Linette. And Kichenok was very good in her first round versus Morita. So I think I have enough to assume that Linette is really playing some good tennis.

By the way, the world also need more tennis players called Tennys.

[Marillion]

Smitkova to defeat Bogdan (1.66) - 2 units

[Marillion]

Some sick losses today but lessons learned!

Fognini to defeat Tsonga (1.66) - 4 units loss
Wawrinka to defeat Almagro (1.44) - 3 units void
Oudin to defeat Vinogradova (1.44) - 1 unit win
Dimitrov to defeat Ferrer (3.40) - 1 unit loss
Boleli/Fognini to defeat Peya/Soares (2.75) - 2 units loss
Larcher de Brito to defeat Kontaveit (2.00) - 1 unit loss

Wins-Losses-Void
226-154-17

total units risked: 686

YTD
+38.19 units

ROI
5.57%

[Marillion]

Krajinovic to defeat Bogomolov (2.50) - 3 units

[Marillion]

Rola to defeat Gonzalez (1.72) - 4 units