Schiavone
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Oh it happened. Genie is the new "it" girl of the WTA, they had her live tweeting at hockey match last night and I guess ATP was using Wawrinka for promotion so they went together.
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ATP Indian Wells Mini-View
Indian Wells is generally where the top players come out on top at the end with Nadal, Federer or Djokovic winning here nine of the last ten years. Generally, upsets of the seeded players here will come early as seeds have lost a minimum of eight times in their 1st matches at Indian Wells over the last three seasons. That means of the 32 seeds, at least 25% of them have fallen by the time we reach the round of 32. In 2013, ten seeds lost their first match. Look for those match-ups where out-of-form players or clay courters who might have earned a seed through ranking are up against good opposition and look for some upsets there.
Seeds Prone to 1st Match Upsets
(23) Gael Monfils
Monfils 2-6 mark at Indian Wells should be your stop sign to back him early in this tournament. He's lost in his 1st match in his last four trips to this tournament Will like this best if it's Stakhovsky, not Kubot.
(10) Milos Raonic
Ankle injury sidelined him for a while. Need to see how he is on court. Roger-Vasselin would be optimal instead of Becker for any shot at an upset.
(3) Stan Wawrinka
Could face Karlovic in his 1st match. The tournament has never been overly poor for Wawrinka, but in each of his last three trips to Indian Wells, he's been pushed to three sets in his first match.
(29) Andreas Seppi
Overall, he's under .500 on the surface for his career. He's normally out by his 2nd match at Indian Wells at best. The plus for Seppi is he faces Querrey or a qualifier.
(11) Tommy Haas
Injury concern over the shoulder. He may not even play. Chardy or Rhyne Williams. Either could handle a less than 100% healthy Haas.
(18) Kei Nishikori
Injury concern here too. Nishikori has lost his 1st match at this tournament in three of the last four trips he's made here. Giraldo a bigger threat than Gimeno-Traver.
(30) Fernando Verdasco
Lack of match-play and a coaching change. Neither Ram nor Zeballos inspires confidence, but Verdasco could be rusty here.
(26) Florian Mayer
Outside of his Australian Open run to the 4th round, he's 0-3 elsewhere this season. Indian Wells has been a horror show for him with a 3-7 career mark and 1st-up losses in five of his last six appearances. He gets Brands or Nieminen.
(6) Juan Martin Del Potro
Another injury issue. Wrist problem forced him from Dubai. Felciano Lopez or Dudi Sela will test him first and you'd be wise to consider going against Delpo at big odds given his status
(25) Vasek Pospisil
Finally got in a match in Acapulco after missing more than a month due to back problems. Is he healthy? Kukushkin or a qualifer, watch for the match-up and go from there.
Futures Watch
Nadal +225
Berdych +1400
I like Rafa's draw. He does have some potential tough outs, but most of them are guys who lack the consistency it generally takes to beat him - like Dolgopolov, Monfils and Fognini. With Murray in his quarter, he has a relatively decent path to the semis and goes against the Swiss Quarter of Wawrinka-Federer for a Finals shot.
Berdych to me is playing at a level that few are matching this season. He's consistent with a semifinal run in Australia. Final in Dubai. Title in Rotterdam. His quarter does have some toughies in Gulbis and Dimitrov who are both playing well + he's in Djokovic's half, but the price is fair for a tradeout if needed along the way.
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Thanks for the tournament overview write up, looking forward to it!Comment -
Dam, if Dr.Ivo can beat Stan, they have you seem the rest of the draw? He can go a hell of a long way EP!Comment -
Wawrinka I am very interested to see for the rest of the year. Now that he got the carrot, how hungry is he gonna be and how is he going to deal with lower ranked guys treating him like their Super Bowl now that he is top three.Comment -
Quite frankly, I'm not convinced he has any business in the top three, but we shall see.
I agree with you though.Comment -
Rafa's draw, honestly I don't like it at all. You line up that many quality opponents consistency or no consistency to have to get by in a row and you're upping your odds to get clocked upside the head sooner or later. It'll be interesting to see if any of those guys can push him before the business end of the tournament. We all know Nadal is the toughest player in the game mentally so you wouldn't expect him to wear down in that regard even if he did have to fight through a few of these guys.
I think it's going to be a really fun tournament and aren't we due for a rando to take one of these down hahaComment -
It's a larger draw, so everyone faces tougher draws than usual - I don't think it's comparatively more difficult than the other quarters. I'd rate from hardest to easiest: Berdych, Wawrinka, Nadal, Djokovic quarters.Comment -
ATP Indian Wells: March 6
Parlay: Karlovic + Giraldo [-109]
Stepanek +133
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-06-14, 12:36 PM.Comment -
No Stakhovsky play? I am surprised..
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Kubot is plenty capable, so I went with Giraldo for my parlay partner instead because of the nice head-2-head stats against DGT and that DGT generally is a miserable wretch on the surface, not that Giraldo is a boss or anything.Comment -
Do you have a moment to give any reasoning behind Stepanek? I'm considering siding with Istomin, though the odds have drifted further than I'd like, as I believe he'd have a far more impressive record this year if he hadn't run into such a tough batch of opponents. Really only his loss against Tursunov is unimpressive (but still better than Stepanek's losses against Haase and Kavcic), having otherwise been knocked out by Djokovic (x2), Cilic, Gulbis, and Monfils. His wins against lesser opponents have been in straights for the most part and he even has a straight sets win over Cilic, which looks pretty impressive now. Thanks in advance.Comment -
Stepanek is my TI/public fade play. I have not seen too many people not on Istomin and it opened just above a pick 'em type of line. The good folks at TI (another tennis site in case not familiar) have a track record of being on the wrong side with their majority picks on these sort of plays. Not my only reasoning to take him, but part of it. Steps has a tricky game and Istomin is seeing him for the 1st time.Comment -
Line went from +125 when you bet it to around +145 at closing. This scared me. I bet half what I originally intended. At this moment, Stepanek is threatening to drop a bagel on Istomin in the first set.
Nice.Comment -
Typical Istomin match. Sets vary greatly and winds up going 3. No telling what happens in the 3rd, hopefully Istomin sucks nuts.Comment -
Looking like the Worm will bury himself sooner or later. Struggling on serve every game now.Comment -
This is a match Istomin always finds a way to lose though for no reason at all. I heard Radek looks a little gassed but he's hanging tough.Comment -
Like I said. I'm watching this match Radek can hardly run anymore, Istomin is a tard boxComment -
Worm breaks. Bury the public Worm, do my bidding.Comment -
thats no way to speak of your elders like that EPComment -
I love it when a plan comes together.Comment -
We can also learn again my favorite lesson - line moves in tennis don't normally mean a damn thing.Comment -
And the Vesely line went from 2.20 (I had him on 2.20) to 2.62...Comment -
it doesnt take much to move tennis lines these daysComment -
guys when some players are serving, would they be praying at the same time, that they get their first serve in.
the ladies even more so, i got broken, now i serve please please please go in
just one god damn timeComment -
Nice job EP. Wish I wasn't such a pussy. Still won 50 bucks though.Comment -
It's pretty uncanny how many times the TI consensus picks when the line is -120 to maybe -150 for the favorite ... are wrong. As such, Lorenzi over Carreno-Busta may wind up on my card for Friday. I'll wait to see some more picks pile up on that site overnight. I didn't really understand that consensus to begin with as CB has been losing right and left this season on his favorite surface. Lorenzi through qualis here and in good form. He's deceptive on this surface as well, winning when he matches up against lower tier guys/dirt ballers like himself playing on hard surfaces.Comment -
I hope u bet air cause u can't hold my jock when it comes to winnersComment -
2014 Season Overall Profit: +6.40Comment -
ATP Indian Wells: March 7
Lorenzi -110
Matosevic -145
S.Johnson +190
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Qualies traditionally do well here in the first round. Think we could see 3-4 winners today.Good thing Lorenzi is one of them.Comment -
TI tips are 23-4 for CB over Lorenzi, let's see how the curse works today.
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