That be called the SBR curse matey. Mostly pissed at myself for not going with my gut. Seems like I chuck that up at least once a week. If I went with the fades I outlined, I would have played Korolev today.
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Overall Profit: +2.81
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whats your pick for tomorrows matches? i just started following your pick bro but nice licks !Comment -
May 1st
Oeiras: Paire -155
Oeiras: Lorenzi +4 [-127]
Oeiras: Carreno-Busta/Goffin Over 22 [-104]
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What's up buddy you know I respect your picks but I had to rejoin to ask if you watched paire vs sijsling? Just curious cuz he looked absolutely awful and will lose in 2 if he plays like that again. Trusting a rebound I assume? Gl dudeComment -
I would guess it's more of a fade of Hanescu, God knows I'm not touching that match w/ a 10 foot pole.Comment -
Got a better deal on Lorenzi at +4 [-108]. I read the conditions in Oeiras were tough yesterday with the wind, etc. So I thought the matches yesterday were not an entirely accurate summary of each person's play. Winners learned some how to play with those conditions and I expected adjustments from those players today. Paire to me being one of those guys who is just a better all-around player than Hanescu & maybe has enough upstairs to adjust. I'm sure the flakey moments will be there today as he just choked serving for the 1st set, but hopefully in the end he proves better.Comment -
Looks like Dracula showed up to play today.Comment -
Paire had chances, but seemed ready to jet after blowing them in the 2nd. Last service game was a race to get outta dodge.Comment -
It was horrible to watch. I had a large play on it, and Paire seemingly wanted nothing to do with the win. He had numerous spots to break and just took his foot off the gas and quit. Sounds like sour grapes but man that was just not right.
Kind of thing puts a good man on TILT.Comment -
saw you took lorenzi at +4...i had him at + money on the same number. Nice to see he pulled it out...no retirements now.Comment -
Gonna grind out a profit today with these last two. The Goffin match was typical Goffin. Rollercoaster from set to set. Reminds me a lot of Istomin who plays so uneven from one set to another.Comment -
Goffin ranked #60 something and you allow some #200 ranked guy basically rip you apart on the court=More practice needed.Comment -
Overall Profit: +3.26
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May 2nd
Munich: Haas-Gulbis Over 22.5 [-108]
Oeiras: Suarez Navarro-Puig Over 19.5 [-112]
Munich: Zemlja +200 *Risking 0.5 unit
Oeiras: Haase +225 *Risking 0.5 unit
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You think Falla ml has a chance EP
Seppi playing like dog poo this yearComment -
Perhaps.Comment -
Meh. Winning day got boned by the WTA play. Puig had to hold serve once to get it to 20 games and she got broken on the last one she needed to hold. Cannot count how many times in betting tennis that I have had that happen, it's been a bunch.
Overall Profit: +2.18
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May 3rd
Munich: Kohlschreiber-Troicki Under 22 [-115]
Oeiras: Fognini-Carreno Busta Over 21 [-135]
Oeiras: Kanepi +105
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what do you think about haas? I have him winning in a parlay. Also have wawrinka and ferrer in the parlay but I think one of the 2 loses.Comment -
Haas would be the more likely of the three if anyone is going to lose of those three. He has the toughest match-up - but I think he will probably win.Comment -
Nice match Kanepi. Betting on the broads = masturbating with a cheese grater with no lube.Comment -
She had played pretty well this week, I thought - but was horrible today & CSN bitch slapped her in straights.
Well going the long way to break even today. Lost Kanepi. Pushed on Kohlschreiber-Troicki & won Fognini-CB. I have an itchy trigger on Seppi-Robredo that I may add .... has been in my brain all night.Comment -
He proved me wrong this week in thinking he'd fade from playing a bit last week. Hope he proves me right here.
Oeiras: Robredo -132Comment -
Figures I don't follow my fade plans outlined at the beginning of the week far enough and wind up paying for it.Comment -
All those 3 sets are catching up with Tommy.The way Ferrer is playing right now,I would lay my house on Seppi + games next match EP>Comment -
I am just pissed off at myself. Get gun shy if the fade doesn't work in their first match and sometimes think maybe I should just cut my losses instead of doubling. But damn it if it wouldn't have paid here and with Tipsarevic losing and Monfils for that matter yesterday.Comment -
EP do you think Ferrer and Haas are fairly safe to throw in a parlay tomorrow?Comment -
I think they should both win, but a little weary of Haas because Dodig's got the hot hand this week. I would be surprised if Ferrer doesn't win Oeiras. He took a WC to play for a purpose this week after his poor play the tournament prior to this.Comment -
Overall Profit: +0.86
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Quickie Madrid Preview
Djokovic Quarter
Not the easiest of draws honestly. Oeiras Champ Wawrinka stands in his way to a quarterfinal meeting with Tsonga who leads the bottom of the quarter. Dimitrov could make Djokovic need to bring his A game from the get-go. Raonic is in this quarter as well + floaters like Dolgopolov, Dimitrov & Klizan. Djokovic showed in Monte Carlo that he's going to amp it up for the bigger tourneys, so this should still he his quarter and with the win over Nadal in Rome - he should be looking to continue momentum.
1st Round Fade Alert: Dolgopolov
Murray Quarter
Murray really needs to build some momentum this week. He won't have an easy time as Simon or Chardy awaits in the 3rd round. Berdych leads the bottom of the quarter, also needing a pick me up after flopping in Monte Carlo & Barcelona. With both Murray & Berdych a bit out or sorts at the moment, this quarter could see a darkhorse capitalize. Fancy first rounder with Tipsarevic & Monaco. Monaco certainly could benefit here with the "higher" seeds all not quite right, at least to start the week. If he makes it by Mr.T, Kevin Anderson could also be a sleeper here.
1st Round Fade: Tipsarevic
Ferrer/Nadal Quarter
Ferrer found some form in Oerias, but got whipped in the Final by Wawrinka. He'll have to wipe that out of his mind. His draw early is easy, but gets progressively tougher with Munich Champ Tommy Haas and Tommy Robredo also floating in this quarter. Haas though may not be around long enough to challenger Ferrer. Haas plays much better in Germany on dirt and could be in for a short week after a title last week. Nadal leads the top of the quarter and should roll into the quarters where Almagro might be waiting. Expecting a focused Nadal this week, so I think this quarter is his.
1st Round Fades: Haas & Fognini.
Federer Quarter
Interested to see Fed who has been MIA since Indian Wells. He was last year's champ on the Smurf Clay, but generally plays well regardless of the color of the clay. His part of the quarter has Nishikori & he faced Stepanek first who can be tough at times. Still would expect Fed in the quarters. On top, Gasquet leads the charges with Isner and a bunch of Spaniards. I think Isner could take this part of the quarter and book a QF trip if he's in it to win it. That remains to be seen.
1st Round Fade Alert: Troicki
Nadal & Djokovic are very short on futures prices with Nadal @ +100 and Djokovic @ +125. That may accurately reflect the best prospective winners for this tournament, but neither interests me at that price. Federer could be worth a flyer @ +1450, but that would likely be for a trade out as he would have to go through Nadal to get to the Final.
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May 6th
ATP: F.Lopez +130
WTA: Stosur -140
ATP: Haase +185 *Risking 0.5 unit
ATP: John Isner -150 *To Win 0.5 unit
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