[Stacocakes]

How's everyone doing? Hopefully the weeks between the French Open and Wimbledon didn't do anyone harm. Realized there were some upsets in there and that's once again due to player's not wanting to go all out and jeopardize their big payday at Wimbledon. I was surprised when I saw that Federer was the favorite here this year but then after I dug a bit deeper I realized why that was the case. The public thinks Federer is back and ready to win since he beat Djokovic at the French Open and I agree that it is possible but I just can't see him beating Rafa in the final here given their head to head in their careers. Nadal will probably face Del Potro in the fourth round and that is the other reason why Rafa's outrights are greater then Federer's. I have to admit that Del Potro worries me a bit here BUT he still is trying to regain his form so I favor Rafa to advance in that match. In the quarter finals Nadal will probably face Berdych but that is if Tomas even get's there. How many times have we been expecting Berdych to make a run and he loses in the first or second round? He can't be trusted so to think that Rafa may play him in the quarterfinals is a bit to much forward thinking at this point. The other side of Rafa's draw has a quarterfinal match between Murray probably and either Roddick or Monfils. Roddick isn't 100% yet but has had some good results on grass since coming back. Murray will probably beat either of these players so I guess it doesn't really matter who he faces in the quarterfinals. I think the outright price for Rafa at +275 is a really good bet for this tournament. Don't pay much attention to his loss in London since he was surely saving himself for Wimbledon.

On the other side of the draw we have Federer, Djokovic, Ferrer and Soderling. I think the fourth round match between Ferrer and Tsonga will be a long match which will leave the winner easy pickings for Federer in the quarterfinals. There really isn't much standing in between Roger and the Semifinals. Djokovic also has a very easy draw in which he will probably play Soderling in the quarterfinals. Djokovic has owned Soderling in their careers with a 6-1 mark and I see pretty much the same result happening here. This will probably set up a Semifinal match between Djokovic and Federer and it's going to be another tight match between the two. Federer's greatness on grass makes one lean towards him but if I told you that I will give you Federer at +230 odds to win the championship at this point or Djokovic at +400 odds to win the championship who would you take? This match is to close to call to justify that much of a discrepancy in odds, even with Djokovic's level on grass as nothing to special. If you want to take someone from this portion of the draw go with the value and take Djokovic at +400 odds.

With all of this being said I am going to take only one outright for Wimbledon this year and that is Rafael Nadal. Have been riding him for years as all of you know and he rarely lets me down. Right now you can get +275 odds for Rafa to win the tournament and I think this is the best bet of the "big 3".

Rafael Nadal +275

Will have a look at the first round matchups and post some more plays later on tonight. Just wanted to get this outright out there. Best of luck everyone

[Stacocakes]

One play I am considering for tomorrow is a Simon/Verdasco parlay. Both Simon and Soderling are priced very low for an opening round match (Not saying it's a great price just saying it's a good parlay play type price) so I have been considering putting both of them in some parlays. Soderling's match is a day away so I will probably put him in a parlay for day 2 so I have been looking through the matches to find someone to pair up with Simon. Simon/Verdasco pays +126 which is pretty decent odds. Stepanek has had some good matches recently coming into this tournament which is why he is priced as he is but we all know that Stepanek is over the hill and just playing for scraps these days so I would like to take my chances with Verdasco here. Fernando is not as much of a slam dunk as I would want him to be to put him into a parlay which is why I haven't pulled the trigger on this yet.Just something I am considering

[JNic]

I would pull the trigger with Verdasco.. I watched Verdasco beat up on Mahut in Eastbourne and his forehand was just wickedly good, like his old form when he lost to Nadal in Aussie Open in 5. I heard he was playing sensational too when he beat Nalbandian. He did mentally fall apart though against Roddick, but Roddick is just so solid. I think Verdasco will have tons of chances to break Stepanek and I think he's gonna make a ton of errors in the baseline rallies.
I always like Simon too when hes a favorite, hes reliable, i'd say go for it.
I see you mentioned Soderling though, my advice is too NOT put him in a parlay. Petzschner was playing some seriously good grass tennis before his back flared up, I feel like he is at his best he can hold every single time against Soderling here.

[Stacocakes]

Schiavone is another match that is priced very low. -136 for her over Dokic?Wow. I know that she is not a grass court expert or anything but she is playing Jelena Dokic. Dokic has had some good results on hard courts this year but last year she was so bad she was playing challengers. A 2-0 career record vs Schiavone and the fact that Dokic made it to the final of a tournament last week are two other things that make this price the way it is I guess. The field in that tournament though was not deep at all so take that with a grain of salt.

Something to think about

[Stacocakes]

JNic how are you doing? Love the news about Verdasco. It's making me like that play even more now. Will think about that Soderling play a bit more. Petzschner needs to play some great tennis to beat Soderling and if he is having back problems coming into this then it's hard to think that he will get past Soderling. In a long best of five set match a back problem can come up at any point in the match. Definately will take what you said into consideration though. Would never back Soderling at those big odds outside of a parlay.

Do you like anything else for day 1?

[JNic]

Staco what are your thoughts on Davydenko +130 against Tomic.. I know Davydenko is known to tank Wimbledon and just get ready for some clay court European events but I think he really needs this. Tomic obviously can hit pretty big and has a much better grass court suited game but I think the fact that Davydenko likes to take the ball early will really trouble Tomic on the baseline, he's really not that quick yet on the baseline

[JNic]

haha actually you know what, I'm not gonna get into anymore Davydenko matches... f\*\*k that

[JNic]

Yea look into Conor Niland +220 against Mannarino. He's the 2nd irish guy ever to get into the main draw, he's a guy that was born in England but I know he's gonna get all types of fans showing up to his match. Murray was pushing to get him a wildcard but he qualified instead. Mannarino has a big-time serve and some nice volleys but Niland should and will control the baseline rallies

[Stacocakes]

I admit when I saw Davy at a dog price to Tomic I definately considered it as well. It's even going up now. Currently at +144. You said it best though that it is probably best to stay away. I'm always on the wrong side of his matches

Nishikori -124 over Hewitt. I was under the impression that Hewitt was injured and would likely miss Wimbledon. I guess he is going to try to give it a go here. Obviously if he was healthy he would be the favorite here so the line is definately telling us something. Throw in the fact that Nishikori won three matches last week so should be ready for this one. Definately considering taking him in this spot. Price is right for a chance.

[Stacocakes]

Good luck with Niland JNic. I am not to familiar with him so I am going to stay away from that match. Mannarino has had some up and down results coming into this so taking a shot at Niland at +220 is definately better then taking Mannarino as a fav. He's beaten Del Potro and Simon BUT he lost to Mahut...unreal. Won't back him as a big fav

[Boxing Champ]

Are you gonna post your plays later on??

[isles71]

need some tennis plays. Need to look at the lines as well.

[Stacocakes]

Ya will post my plays in probably ten mins.Just searching around to see if I can dig up any injury information before pulling the trigger. Do you like anything boxing champ?

[Boxing Champ]

Ya will post my plays in probably ten mins.Just searching around to see if I can dig up any injury information before pulling the trigger. Do you like anything boxing champ?

To tell you the truth my friend I don't know shit about tennis, even though I love watching Wimbledon.
Never bet it before either. I would love to follow you if you are any good. By the way you write it looks like you know your tennis pretty good...therefore I put my trust in you..Lets kick some ass.

[Stacocakes]

Plays for day 1:

Simon/Verdasco parlay +126

A nice play to start things off. Like Soderling,Isner and Nishikori as well but they are are on day 2 so I am going to pass on both of those for now. Going to ignore the women's side for day 1 since it's to unpredictable. Best of luck tomorrow guys.

[Stacocakes]

Thanks for the praise Boxing Champ. I'm just here for the Slams and I choose not to bet the other tournaments since more upsets tend to happen in those. There are many people here that follow tennis day to day and know more about the players that are ranked between 30 and 100 then I do so it's best to look at the high traffic threads in the tennis forum and bet on consensus. Should do pretty good. My slam threads have been doing pretty good for 2 or 3 years or however long it has been so I hope we can all keep it going together here.

[Stacocakes]

Wonder how long the Isner/Mahut match will be? Was so fun last time watching two players that had such poor return games. No wonder it went on forever. It's not like every game had 2 bps either or anything.It was smooth sailing.Who wants to see that? Ace-Unforced error-Unforced error-Ace game. Great tennis

By the way, I know Isner has been crap but I like him to win this match on day 2

[MUHerd37]

Verdasco is risky. May take the chance with ya anyway. I just hate betting against Stepanek. He's been playing well too.

[Stacocakes]

Agree verdasco is hit or miss but I really like the Simon play. Would play it by itself but the price is a tad bit to high. Still think the parlay hits though

[Boxing Champ]

I'm In!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Good luck. Rafa as always gives you good hedge opps! That parlay is gonna give you gas.

[saske]

good luck dudes )

[jeffdane]

explain this chela line to me

[brucethebear]

Agree verdasco is hit or miss but I really like the Simon play. Would play it by itself but the price is a tad bit to high. Still think the parlay hits though

BOL with your play. The only thing I dont like about it is that it involves a frenchman.
My golden rule of tennis betting is "Don't bet on games involving the french"

I have reluctantly taken Davy at +144. He has moved into +120 on a lot of books.

I have locked in both Licksiki (101) and Kviitova (12) to win the womens singles (taken during Eastbourne). Hope to green out on Sabine later in the tournament.

Also looking at a parlay of Fed/Nadal/Muzz/Joker to win their respective quarters.

Looking forward to the next two weeks. Lets make some money gents

BtB

[Stacocakes]

Chela line looked way off to me to. Matosevic has been on a nice grass run but it's against a bunch of nobody's. Chela's only good on clay and bows out on the grass in either the first or second round every year. Still figured he would be a small fav at the very least. They are also factoring in that Chela hasn't played since the French Open.

[Stacocakes]

Brucethebear welcome. Like your kvitova outright. I had her for the french open outright and it didn't work out that well for me but hope she does good for you here.Womens field is so wide open

I try to stay away from french players to for the most part. Mathieu,benneteau,Gasquet, etc etc. Line was just to good to pass up with Simon though.

[MUHerd37]

Why is Jankovic at just like -285? Martinez Sanchez is a clay courter, not really a grass court player.

[brucethebear]

I try to stay away from french players to for the most part. Mathieu,benneteau,Gasquet, etc etc. Line was just to good to pass up with Simon though.

I agree. A great line. Almost tempted to tail (but won't jinx you)

[MUHerd37]

Looks like Fognini is out. Gicquel is playing Raonic right now. Raonic up 3-0.

[MUHerd37]

Nadal just got broken on a double fault. Down 2-4. Might want to start trying now.

[MUHerd37]

Zvonereva is about to go down to Riske. She won the first set 6-0 but then dropped the 2nd set 3-6. She got an early break in the 3rd but got broken right back. She is playing like shit. When was the last time the #2 seed lost in the 1st round? Huge upset in the making.

[beefcake]

Good stuff as always Staco.. Looking forward to a great tourney..

Have a bunch of futures for a few bucks here and there..

[MUHerd37]

Zvonereva got lucky and pulled it out. Can't trust that woman at all tho.

[IceSlipper]

Simon not looking the goods

[IceSlipper]

Here he goes