Need som help from all you arbitragers out there!

[HL333982]

Hey guys, I need som help from any arbitrager that uses Pinnacle as there main arb-source. I've been surebetting for about 6-7 months and have a total arb-turnover at about $2millon and about half of that has been wagered at Pinn. I've realized that I lose way to much money at Pinn in comparison to the other sites (way more than the odds should let me). Of course, this also means that I win way to much at all the other sites than should be realistic considering the odds. To further investigate this I would really like it if the pinn-using arbers could post their total turnover at Pinnacle regarding arbs and how much they've either won or lost. This would really help me to improve my strategies.

/HL

[Thremp]

Umm... What do you think you should lose?

[HL333982]

Umm... What do you think you should lose?

Considering Pinnacle is almost always right in comparison to the other arb-site a and the average arb is about 1,5% at the same time as the lines at pinn payout about 97-98% and I play both 2way and 3way-games I should lose about 2,5% as pinn is almost always right due to the superfast adjustments to new information.

And I've lost way way more than that month after month.

[Thremp]

Variance. Low -3s maybe be sustainable longterm depending on circumstances, but way way more is totally not realistic.

[HL333982]

Are there no arbers here?

[odysseus]

Considering Pinnacle is almost always right in comparison to the other arb-site a and the average arb is about 1,5% at the same time as the lines at pinn payout about 97-98% and I play both 2way and 3way-games I should lose about 2,5% as pinn is almost always right due to the superfast adjustments to new information.

And I've lost way way more than that month after month.

don't see your logic. the reason the arb is there is because one book (probably the other one) has odds out of line with the true probability of the event happening. Therefore you would expect to win more bets at the out of line book and thus lose more at Pinny. if you can stand the variance, don't bet the hedge at pinny and clean up at the other books!!
I've seen it happen loads of times, if I hadn't matched/hedges most of my bets at a low juice book (eg pinny), i'd be a millionaire by now
If you're betting -110 lines at the other book, which sees the line as even money probablity, you need at least +111 at pinny to make an arb so the difference in real probability (if you pinny is right) is more than the 2.5% you state.

[HL333982]

don't see your logic. the reason the arb is there is because one book (probably the other one) has odds out of line with the true probability of the event happening. Therefore you would expect to win more bets at the out of line book and thus lose more at Pinny. if you can stand the variance, don't bet the hedge at pinny and clean up at the other books!!
I've seen it happen loads of times, if I hadn't matched/hedges most of my bets at a low juice book (eg pinny), i'd be a millionaire by now
If you're betting -110 lines at the other book, which sees the line as even money probablity, you need at least +111 at pinny to make an arb so the difference in real probability (if you pinny is right) is more than the 2.5% you state.

exactly. to sort out the true loss/wagered $ at pinn I need info from all other arbers out there to really be sure that this isn't just a case of longterm variance. of course I'm aware that I will lose more at pinn since the other book is always the one that's wrong. but there's more to it than that. the reason a arb occurs in the first place is often because of new information and i think that when placing my matching bets at pinn I miss out on a lot of value since the odds I'm betting on is probably on its way up and therefore my pinn-wagers are always at bad odds and of course the odds on the other bookie is really, really good. to calculate how much of a bankroll I need to stand reasonable variance I have to be able to calculate how much i really lose at pinn and that's why i need all other arbers pinn-history. do you have anything to contribute with?

[BranchDavidian]

You would not necessarily win more bets at the other book. Pinn has team A at +111, team B at -121. Other book has team A at -110 and team B at -110. If you believe Pinny has odds set correctly, then if you bet team A at Pinny and team B at the other book, a +111 team will lose about 55% of the time. So the money leaves Pinny and enters the other book. However, Pinny will not always be on the underdog. What happens when Pinny is on the favorite? Pinny has team A at +121 and team B at -131. The other book has team a at +132 and team B at -152. You bet team B at Pinny ( -131 ) and team A at other book ( +132 ). If Pinny's odd are the correct numbers, a -131 team should win about 60% of the time, or so. Therefore, now we have Pinny winning most of the bets. However, since when Pinny is on the dogs, a winning wager wins more than the amount risked, and when Pinny is on the favorite, a winning wager wins less than the amount risked, over time these percentages even out. Whether you end up draining Pinny or overloading it will be just plain luck.

[zebras99]

don't see your logic. the reason the arb is there is because one book (probably the other one) has odds out of line with the true probability of the event happening. Therefore you would expect to win more bets at the out of line book and thus lose more at Pinny. if you can stand the variance, don't bet the hedge at pinny and clean up at the other books!!
I've seen it happen loads of times, if I hadn't matched/hedges most of my bets at a low juice book (eg pinny), i'd be a millionaire by now
If you're betting -110 lines at the other book, which sees the line as even money probablity, you need at least +111 at pinny to make an arb so the difference in real probability (if you pinny is right) is more than the 2.5% you state.

You are totally correct. however, I'm still afraid to take only out of the line bets without matching them with the "correct" line.