How much can you win at the A books before you can get booted?

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  • dynamite140
    SBR MVP
    • 07-05-08
    • 4958

    #1
    How much can you win at the A books before you can get booted?
    I wanted to know how much can one win at the A books before they boot you. Can someone share their experiences on what online book boot/limited you and how much it was for and the reason? I don't have this problem because i am down overall in the last couple of years but just wanted to know in case i ever go in a win big. The A books I'm talking about are thegreek, betjamaica, 5dimes, bookmaker, bodog and legendz. I heard the 2 books that never boot you and welcome professional action are bookmaker and thegreek.

    Assuming you are not betting steam plays, would you ever get booted? I hear people get booted on 5dimes if they win too much and then that guy Tony says bye bye to you. People say if you win too much from betjamaica, they will ask you to take your action to the greek. How much money is this usually around or if its they notice you betting steam plays? I know steam plays are like RAS CBB totals because they do so well though i never bet any of them. I heard legendz will boot you if you have a clue. What does that mean? That means steam plays right? If its not the boot, i hear people get limited as well in their wagers. Of course i hear this a lot from people who bet on SIA and BetEd which do not fit in the A book category. But can someone give me the true definition of we don't allow professional action? I mean i don't know jack about statistics and at the moment, I'm a fade the public kind of bettor. Like just bet on reverse line movement and bets that make no sense. Basically fading the most popular play on the board etc and betting on the books side. Back many years ago i lost most of my money by betting heavy favorites and chase and lost like no tomorrow. But is professional action just mean higher limit? I mean one can bet high limits and lose but that would still be a professional correct? And when people say play at betjamaica and 5dimes because it is for recreational players, does recreational basically just mean small bets like $500 and below? I keep thinking recreational is someone who bets small and loses... Or is my statement here completely wrong. Is someone who makes say 5 wagers a day of $500 a game considered recreational then? What about $1000 or $2000? I think betjamaica allows wagers up to $5000 per NBA game from what i see on their site so how is this even considered recreational b/c i see the greek is $3000?

    The only sports i bet are NFL, NBA and some MLB. I don't know anything about any other sport. I also do not bet openers or whatnot. I basically bet a game within 30 minutes of a game starting. I don't study any stats or anything like that. But if someone like me ever get on a lucky streak and start making huge bets and keep hitting, would i ever have the problem of getting limited or the boot? I also don't bet totals and i'm pretty sure the majority of wagers that may be characterized as sharp has to be totals because i heard they are easier to beat than sides which is why they have lower limits.

    But if i were lucky at one of these books and say bet $1000 on a game and win. Then bet $2000 the next game and win and proceeded to win the next 25/25 bets.... i know the chance of this happening is never would just want to give an example, would i ever have a problem of getting the boot? I am not sure what the maximum wager or an NFL or NBA game but just gave $2000 as the number because that is a big wager amount for a game. Would 5dimes, betjamaica, bodog boot/limit you assuming these are not steam plays? I know legendz only has a $500 maximum bet per wager. I mean what if you bet these games but lets say 3 of these plays were steam plays according to the books but someone like me is just fading the public and betting reverse linemovement and wouldn't even know it was a steam play. Because i don't bet till 30 minutes till a game start etc and the majority of the time most of my bets are 5 minutes within gametime. Also, does anyone know if there are any steam plays in the NFL or NBA or does it only apply mainly to NCAAB and NCAAF, MLB and hockey?

    Like if i were to bet on a MLB game, i would look and say hey Houston Astros are +150 today against the Cardinals. But then i read that they were +220 openers let say. My thinking is most people are betting on cardinals yet the line goes down for the Cards and i take the Astros for that sole reason. This is pretty much how i bet now on NFL, NBA and some MLB. This would mean there was a lot of steam on the Astros during the day right? Except the difference here is that i bet after the steam ended so i would not have any problems? I probably would make this wager again within 30 minutes before the game starts.

    Thanks.
  • Monte
    SBR MVP
    • 08-21-10
    • 2056

    #2
    Originally posted by dynamite140

    The only sports i bet are NFL, NBA and some MLB. I don't know anything about any other sport. I also do not bet openers or whatnot. I basically bet a game within 30 minutes of a game starting. I don't study any stats or anything like that. But if someone like me ever get on a lucky streak and start making huge bets and keep hitting, would i ever have the problem of getting limited or the boot? I also don't bet totals and i'm pretty sure the majority of wagers that may be characterized as sharp has to be totals because i heard they are easier to beat than sides which is why they have lower limits.
    Any book that would boot you would be stupid
    Ok to be more precise...theGreek has put some ppl on phone-only after betting steam, i don't know about cases where they completely kicked someone out thou. Betjam doesn't boot ppl, but they put on delays. 5dimes has booted many ppl already, but from the description you gave about yourself...well you get the idea.
    Legendz cuts limits etc but i don't think they give the boot. Bodog is pretty tolerant, but if you bet steam your account may get put on phone-only same as Greek. That is what happened to me at Blowdog.
    Bookmaker never boots anyone, but they put on some limits. It's not common thou, they deserve the professional status.
    Comment
    • sharpcat
      Restricted User
      • 12-19-09
      • 4516

      #3
      Trust me you have nothing to worry about.
      People have this big misconception that chasing steam is highly profitable because the books will cut your limits, the truth is books cut your limits because heavy steam makes it very hard for them to balance their action not because they are worried about you beating them.
      Comment
      • RonPaul2008
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 06-08-07
        • 6741

        #4
        Originally posted by sharpcat
        Trust me you have nothing to worry about.
        People have this big misconception that chasing steam is highly profitable because the books will cut your limits, the truth is books cut your limits because heavy steam makes it very hard for them to balance their action not because they are worried about you beating them.

        If by "chasing steam" you mean beating books to line moves...I nominate this as clueless post of the year.
        Comment
        • trixtrix
          Restricted User
          • 04-13-06
          • 1897

          #5
          i'm pretty certain that op personally will never be limited at any book
          Comment
          • thespeculator
            SBR MVP
            • 09-09-08
            • 2999

            #6
            Originally posted by trixtrix
            i'm pretty certain that op personally will never be limited at any book
            the guy said he is down, he is not claiming to have won 500k, what is wrong with asking a question,
            Comment
            • eonizuka
              SBR High Roller
              • 10-22-10
              • 152

              #7
              5Dimes will limit maximum bets after a while but I haven't personally heard of anyone getting the boot.
              Comment
              • nli07
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 07-03-06
                • 604

                #8
                Pinnacle sports doesnt limit people thats for sure.
                Comment
                • thespeculator
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-09-08
                  • 2999

                  #9
                  matchbook for american players
                  Comment
                  • sharpcat
                    Restricted User
                    • 12-19-09
                    • 4516

                    #10
                    Originally posted by RonPaul2008
                    If by "chasing steam" you mean beating books to line moves...I nominate this as clueless post of the year.
                    That is correct

                    Chasing steam: blindly betting an off number at a slow moving book after the remainder of the market has moved its price.

                    Rarely are you going to beat the line by enough to make a play that has arb potential and simply beating the closing line by .10 cents is not going to make you rich.

                    The #1 reason a book will limit a steam chaser is because you are piling on to the steam making it hard for the book to balance out their action without opening themselves up to an arb.

                    If you believe that blindly betting an NFL line at +6.5 (-110) when the line moved to a no-vig price of +6 (EV) is going to point you towards the winning side than you are the clueless one.

                    -Either you are an arb player in which of course if a book comes to realize that you are they will run you off because books do not want to give away free money. (This does not make you sharp)

                    -Or You are a square who will most likely lose long term but you are making it very difficult for the linesman to balance his action.

                    -Very rarely one may be part of a syndicate who is causing the move, but technically this person is not "chasing steam" so this player is not included in my argument.

                    If you have supportive data to support your claim showing long term profits by simply chasing steam (not including arb play) I would be interested to see it, but my studies have shown that chasing steam is definately not going to make you rich therefore you would be no threat to the book outside of being a pain in the ass in their task of balancing their books.

                    Please do not insult me if you have no statistical evidence to support your claim, as of right now you have an opinion and I have one but to call me clueless based on your unproven hypothesis only makes you look like an idiot.
                    Comment
                    • thespeculator
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-09-08
                      • 2999

                      #11
                      Originally posted by eonizuka
                      5Dimes will limit maximum bets after a while but I haven't personally heard of anyone getting the boot.
                      i think you are right, 5dimes might limit to low, but i don't think they out right ban , but i am sure some people have been, i know my fellow canadian stumpage has been , but that was after a large win of 50k i think
                      Comment
                      • sharpcat
                        Restricted User
                        • 12-19-09
                        • 4516

                        #12
                        Originally posted by nli07
                        Pinnacle sports doesnt limit people thats for sure.
                        Pinnacle is the source of steam movements 95% of the time so it is pretty difficult for a player to chase steam at pinnacle.
                        Comment
                        • trixtrix
                          Restricted User
                          • 04-13-06
                          • 1897

                          #13
                          Originally posted by sharpcat
                          Trust me you have nothing to worry about.
                          People have this big misconception that chasing steam is highly profitable because the books will cut your limits, the truth is books cut your limits because heavy steam makes it very hard for them to balance their action not because they are worried about you beating them.
                          just stop... please
                          Comment
                          • trixtrix
                            Restricted User
                            • 04-13-06
                            • 1897

                            #14
                            Originally posted by thespeculator
                            the guy said he is down, he is not claiming to have won 500k, what is wrong with asking a question,
                            the problem is 90% of the posters who ask this question publicly will never have to deal w/ it, so it's unnecessary fear-mongering
                            Comment
                            • sharpcat
                              Restricted User
                              • 12-19-09
                              • 4516

                              #15
                              Originally posted by trixtrix
                              just stop... please
                              Seriously

                              Why is it that players with a losing history get their limits slashed for chasing steam???

                              Your either an arb player trying to freeroll the book or you are one of those who believe that if you beat the closing number on very bet you make no matter the side that you are going to profit.

                              -Books look to do business with gamblers not arb players looking to steal pennies from them.
                              -Books like to attempt to closely balance their books so whether arbing or just betting steam plays that will break even long term, you are making it a pain for them to balance the books.

                              We all know that you are a penny chaser and not a gambler Trix, what you describe is called arbing which is a whole different subject that I will let you and fished talk about but my point is that a player is not going to sit back and make easy money by betting every time pinnacle moves their line.
                              Comment
                              • trixtrix
                                Restricted User
                                • 04-13-06
                                • 1897

                                #16
                                Originally posted by sharpcat
                                Seriously

                                Why is it that players with a losing history get their limits slashed for chasing steam???

                                Your either an arb player trying to freeroll the book or you are one of those who believe that if you beat the closing number on very bet you make no matter the side that you are going to profit.

                                -Books look to do business with gamblers not arb players looking to steal pennies from them.
                                -Books like to attempt to closely balance their books so whether arbing or just betting steam plays that will break even long term, you are making it a pain for them to balance the books.

                                We all know that you are a penny chaser and not a gambler Trix, what you describe is called arbing which is a whole different subject that I will let you and fished talk about but my point is that a player is not going to sit back and make easy money by betting every time pinnacle moves their line.
                                1.) lol, you really are retarded. first of all, explain to me why it matters if i was a penny bettor/large bettor/arbber/position taker of the subject of whether a theory is correct.

                                2.) your pathetic shots at me are so far off the mark it's actually hilarious

                                3.) we won't even mention the enormous amount of evidence to the contrary; the first thing when you state your opinion as fact is to make sure you have supporting evidence. when you don't present any/sufficient evidence to support your claim then expect to be challenged on a peer review.

                                and before you claim that it's impossible to obtain evidence to support your hypothesis, it's actually very simple, here's two quick and easy ways:

                                a.) find any database in any major sport that demonstrates that opening line is more accurate than closing line

                                b.) find any reputable sportsbook manager that will backup your claim.

                                if you cannot obtain any of either, then it's okay to stfu on subject that you have absolutely no expertise in.

                                Originally posted by sharpcat
                                Seriously

                                Why is it that players with a losing history get their limits slashed for chasing steam???
                                when something is EXPECTED to happen a majority of times, is it GUARANTEED to happen 100% of the time?
                                Comment
                                • trixtrix
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 04-13-06
                                  • 1897

                                  #17
                                  tell you what sharpcat, i'll cut you a break and offer you a propbet as if the size of my bets proves anything:

                                  amount: 1,350 sbr pts (since i obv have no real money) payable by tomorrow morning (i'll cut you another break, if you don't have sufficient sbr pts, you can pay off your remaining debt to me at 12/day, at least i'll enjoy making you squirm)

                                  terms: we both submit a screenshot of our pinnacle postup account balance (w/ critical info blacked out obv) by end of today, whoever have the larger balance wins the bet
                                  Comment
                                  • sharpcat
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 12-19-09
                                    • 4516

                                    #18
                                    I actually do have databases for NHL, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, MLB, and NCAAB

                                    Every time you see a post by me you just have to argue it just for the sake of arguing, it probably has something to do with the last argument we had in the think tank where everybody came into the thread and said you were wrong. It is obvious that you foolishly think that you are right all of the time and are incapable of seeing things any other way so I am not going to get into one of your beloved refresh the page every 2 minutes for 4 days arguments (because I have a life and have better things to do so I am not sitting in front of my computer monitor all day waiting for lines to move at pinnacle .05 cents so I can make $3 on a arb).

                                    You should educate yourself on both "variance" and "standard deviation" just because some fool gets his hands on a database does not mean that he knows how to test for statistical significance.

                                    More important than variance and standard deviations in a dataset is that by assuming that beating a closing no-vig lines implied win probability by 1% is going to be profitable you are assuming that the market is 100% efficient which is impossible, a line of -105/-105 does not mean that the outcome is exactly 50/50. When chasing steam it is extremely rare that you are beating the no-vig implied win % by more than 2% even at the slowest of books and you are uncertain that the line will revert back to its original number before the steam move. So even if the market was 100% efficient unless you beat the closer 100% of the time you are gaining no advantage.

                                    I know you like to twist my words out of context but I never said that betting steam "could not be profitable" I said that hitting every number that is off regardless of which team it is will not be profitable long term and books are aware of this.

                                    Once again you are twisting the scenario to meet your argument and assuming that when chasing steam you are 100% of the time not only going to beat the closer but you are also going to find that your wager is able to be scalped. This is an unrealistic scenario and it just makes your argument ridiculous, when chasing steam a large majority of the time the line is going to revert back to where it was leaving you with a -EV wager which will eventually revert you back to a break even capper at best.

                                    Take your hypothetical arguments somewhere else because I do not care to argue about if the tooth fairy is real and if so what she would look like because it is an un realistic scenario.

                                    Post and refresh the page as much as you want but I am done with this thread, go to players talk if you want to argue like a child for 3 days.
                                    Comment
                                    • sharpcat
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 12-19-09
                                      • 4516

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by trixtrix
                                      tell you what sharpcat, i'll cut you a break and offer you a propbet as if the size of my bets proves anything:

                                      amount: 1,350 sbr pts (since i obv have no real money) payable by tomorrow morning (i'll cut you another break, if you don't have sufficient sbr pts, you can pay off your remaining debt to me at 12/day, at least i'll enjoy making you squirm)

                                      terms: we both submit a screenshot of our pinnacle postup account balance (w/ critical info blacked out obv) by end of today, whoever have the larger balance wins the bet
                                      How bout we lay our cocks on a ruler and take a picture biggest cock wins.

                                      First off I am in the US and can not use pinnacle and do not care to deal through an agent, second I have my funds spread across many books, third since you are an arb player it would be expected that you have a very large balance or you are just a moron watching a monitor 16 hrs a day to make $20, fourth your account balance could be 10 million for all I care your still a donk in my book a players account balance says nothing about their skill.

                                      And most importantly only an idiot would post their account balance over the internet for many reasons other than account security.
                                      Comment
                                      • trixtrix
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 04-13-06
                                        • 1897

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by sharpcat
                                        I actually do have databases for NHL, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, MLB, and NCAAB

                                        Every time you see a post by me you just have to argue it just for the sake of arguing, it probably has something to do with the last argument we had in the think tank where everybody came into the thread and said you were wrong. It is obvious that you foolishly think that you are right all of the time and are incapable of seeing things any other way so I am not going to get into one of your beloved refresh the page every 2 minutes for 4 days arguments (because I have a life and have better things to do so I am not sitting in front of my computer monitor all day waiting for lines to move at pinnacle .05 cents so I can make $3 on a arb).

                                        You should educate yourself on both "variance" and "standard deviation" just because some fool gets his hands on a database does not mean that he knows how to test for statistical significance.

                                        More important than variance and standard deviations in a dataset is that by assuming that beating a closing no-vig lines implied win probability by 1% is going to be profitable you are assuming that the market is 100% efficient which is impossible, a line of -105/-105 does not mean that the outcome is exactly 50/50. When chasing steam it is extremely rare that you are beating the no-vig implied win % by more than 2% even at the slowest of books and you are uncertain that the line will revert back to its original number before the steam move. So even if the market was 100% efficient unless you beat the closer 100% of the time you are gaining no advantage.

                                        I know you like to twist my words out of context but I never said that betting steam "could not be profitable" I said that hitting every number that is off regardless of which team it is will not be profitable long term and books are aware of this.

                                        Once again you are twisting the scenario to meet your argument and assuming that when chasing steam you are 100% of the time not only going to beat the closer but you are also going to find that your wager is able to be scalped. This is an unrealistic scenario and it just makes your argument ridiculous, when chasing steam a large majority of the time the line is going to revert back to where it was leaving you with a -EV wager which will eventually revert you back to a break even capper at best.

                                        Take your hypothetical arguments somewhere else because I do not care to argue about if the tooth fairy is real and if so what she would look like because it is an un realistic scenario.

                                        Post and refresh the page as much as you want but I am done with this thread, go to players talk if you want to argue like a child for 3 days.
                                        okay, what word did i "twist" when you called me a penny bettor, or attempting to use the fact the books boot steam players even when they're losing?

                                        i see you have never addressed any point i made or presented any evidence to the contrary, how big of you to act like an adult and simply stick your head in the sand

                                        btw, i'm still waiting for your response to my prop bet (don't be scared big daddy, i'm willing to take a rain check.l)
                                        Comment
                                        • trixtrix
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 04-13-06
                                          • 1897

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by sharpcat
                                          How bout we lay our cocks on a ruler and take a picture biggest cock wins.

                                          First off I am in the US and can not use pinnacle and do not care to deal through an agent, second I have my funds spread across many books, third since you are an arb player it would be expected that you have a very large balance or you are just a moron watching a monitor 16 hrs a day to make $20, fourth your account balance could be 10 million for all I care your still a donk in my book a players account balance says nothing about their skill.

                                          And most importantly only an idiot would post their account balance over the internet for many reasons other than account security.
                                          i already said you can black out any critical security info, so what are you so afraid of?

                                          you're the idiot who FIRST accused me of being a penny bettor (NOT the vice-versa), notice i never said a thing about your pathetic bet sizes until then, now you're claiming it's a d!ck-measuring contest STARTED by me?

                                          btw what am i:

                                          1.) a 20$ bettor
                                          2.) an acct w/ 10 million

                                          obv the above two are mutually exclusive except in your fantasy world
                                          Comment
                                          • sharpcat
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 12-19-09
                                            • 4516

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by trixtrix
                                            i already said you can black out any critical security info, so what are you so afraid of?

                                            you're the idiot who FIRST accused me of being a penny bettor (NOT the vice-versa), notice i never said a thing about your pathetic bet sizes until then, now you're claiming it's a d!ck-measuring contest STARTED by me?

                                            btw what am i:

                                            1.) a 20$ bettor
                                            2.) an acct w/ 10 million

                                            obv the above two are mutually exclusive except in your fantasy world
                                            I implied that you are an arb player dumb ass

                                            There hence the penny pincher, somebody watching a monitor all day so that they can lay down $1,000 dollars on each side of a line so that he can make $30.
                                            Comment
                                            • trixtrix
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 04-13-06
                                              • 1897

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by sharpcat
                                              I implied that you are an arb player dumb ass

                                              There hence the penny pincher, somebody watching a monitor all day so that they can lay down $1,000 dollars on each side of a line so that he can make $30.
                                              no you called a penny bettor, do you need help rereading your own post?

                                              now you upgraded me to 1,000 dollar arbber, at least we're going in the right direction (not quite there yet though), so you admit

                                              1.) i have a larger balance than you and
                                              2.) you don't have any evidence to back up your hypothesis?
                                              Comment
                                              • durito
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 07-03-06
                                                • 13173

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by sharpcat

                                                If you have supportive data to support your claim showing long term profits by simply chasing steam (not including arb play) I would be interested to see it, but my studies have shown that chasing steam is definately not going to make you rich therefore you would be no threat to the book outside of being a pain in the ass in their task of balancing their books.

                                                Please do not insult me if you have no statistical evidence to support your claim, as of right now you have an opinion and I have one but to call me clueless based on your unproven hypothesis only makes you look like an idiot.
                                                Where did I get all this stuff then? (apt, car, bankroll, girlfriend, computers, etc)
                                                Comment
                                                • durito
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 07-03-06
                                                  • 13173

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by sharpcat
                                                  -Books like to attempt to closely balance their books so whether arbing or just betting steam plays that will break even long term, you are making it a pain for them to balance the books.
                                                  You think when square books put up a -3.5 (say SIA) when the market is at -3 even it's because they want to balance their books? Nope, it's the opposite they want more action on the -3.5 and know they will get it since their clients are retards. Kick out the people that bet +3.5, keep the real idiots.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Scooter
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-15-07
                                                    • 1159

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by trixtrix
                                                    the problem is 90% of the posters who ask this question publicly will never have to deal w/ it
                                                    This. Except I'd say it's about 98 - 99.5%.

                                                    Likewise for:

                                                    "Coming to Vegas next week. Which sportsbooks will let me bet 5k/game?"

                                                    "Will Vegas books take out taxes if I win over 10k/day?"


                                                    "But if i were lucky at one of these books and say bet $1000 on a game and win. Then bet $2000 the next game and win and proceeded to win the next 25/25 bets..."

                                                    Etc.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • dynamite140
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 07-05-08
                                                      • 4958

                                                      #27
                                                      How come my question i asked now gotten off topic with two posters talking about something else?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • trixtrix
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 04-13-06
                                                        • 1897

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by durito
                                                        Where did I get all this stuff then? (apt, car, bankroll, girlfriend, computers, etc)
                                                        "shut up durito, you penny bettor arber" /sharpcat

                                                        ps: hey how come they raised the prices on all the medellin flights recently?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • RonPaul2008
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 06-08-07
                                                          • 6741

                                                          #29
                                                          You are most definitely clueless (certainly not sharp as your handle would imply) if you believe that:

                                                          1) "Rarely are you going to beat the line by enough to make a play that has arb potential' by 'blindly betting an off number at a slow moving book"

                                                          2) "the truth is books cut your limits because heavy steam makes it very hard for them to balance their action not because they are worried about you beating them."

                                                          You do realize that if the action they get is heavily one-sided but they are on the right side of the line move it is easy for them to cover their open position at a profit, right? They only care if they are heavy on the wrong side of the line moves...which should tell you something.

                                                          How it is that some people on here who claim to be sharp are so far from it just astounds me.

                                                          Lets look at another of your statements:

                                                          "Very rarely one may be part of a syndicate who is causing the move, but technically this person is not "chasing steam" so this player is not included in my argument."

                                                          What makes you think that someone playing steam can't get the same line as a syndicate member?


                                                          Originally posted by sharpcat
                                                          That is correct

                                                          Chasing steam: blindly betting an off number at a slow moving book after the remainder of the market has moved its price.

                                                          Rarely are you going to beat the line by enough to make a play that has arb potential and simply beating the closing line by .10 cents is not going to make you rich.

                                                          The #1 reason a book will limit a steam chaser is because you are piling on to the steam making it hard for the book to balance out their action without opening themselves up to an arb.

                                                          If you believe that blindly betting an NFL line at +6.5 (-110) when the line moved to a no-vig price of +6 (EV) is going to point you towards the winning side than you are the clueless one.

                                                          -Either you are an arb player in which of course if a book comes to realize that you are they will run you off because books do not want to give away free money. (This does not make you sharp)

                                                          -Or You are a square who will most likely lose long term but you are making it very difficult for the linesman to balance his action.

                                                          -Very rarely one may be part of a syndicate who is causing the move, but technically this person is not "chasing steam" so this player is not included in my argument.

                                                          If you have supportive data to support your claim showing long term profits by simply chasing steam (not including arb play) I would be interested to see it, but my studies have shown that chasing steam is definately not going to make you rich therefore you would be no threat to the book outside of being a pain in the ass in their task of balancing their books.

                                                          Please do not insult me if you have no statistical evidence to support your claim, as of right now you have an opinion and I have one but to call me clueless based on your unproven hypothesis only makes you look like an idiot.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Stumpage
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 09-21-05
                                                            • 2906

                                                            #30
                                                            I was booted by 5Dimes after winning 30K in a very short period several years back now. I had arbed a number of superbowl props against Pinnacle, and followed that up shortly thereafter with Academy Award props, also versus Pinnacle. I was already on a delay for wagers and had some limits lowered previous to that. So when the majority of the arbs placed at 5D came away victorious, I was shown the door and had my balance sent to me via Neteller. This was February of 2007.....Also been booted by Ladbrokes and WillHill after much, much lower lifetime profits.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • lumpy19
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 09-12-08
                                                              • 114

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by durito
                                                              Where did I get all this stuff then? (apt, car, bankroll, girlfriend, computers, etc)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • trixtrix
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 04-13-06
                                                                • 1897

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by RonPaul2008
                                                                You are most definitely clueless (certainly not sharp as your handle would imply) if you believe that:

                                                                1) "Rarely are you going to beat the line by enough to make a play that has arb potential' by 'blindly betting an off number at a slow moving book"

                                                                2) "the truth is books cut your limits because heavy steam makes it very hard for them to balance their action not because they are worried about you beating them."

                                                                You do realize that if the action they get is heavily one-sided but they are on the right side of the line move it is easy for them to cover their open position at a profit, right? They only care if they are heavy on the wrong side of the line moves...which should tell you something.

                                                                How it is that some people on here who claim to be sharp are so far from it just astounds me.

                                                                Lets look at another of your statements:

                                                                "Very rarely one may be part of a syndicate who is causing the move, but technically this person is not "chasing steam" so this player is not included in my argument."

                                                                What makes you think that someone playing steam can't get the same line as a syndicate member?
                                                                when someone has to resort to using their user name to self proclaim they're sharp, the chances are they're likely not, it's equivalent of coming in here w/ a username I_am_a_GENIUS!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • sharpcat
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 12-19-09
                                                                  • 4516

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by durito
                                                                  Where did I get all this stuff then? (apt, car, bankroll, girlfriend, computers, etc)
                                                                  Very impressive Durito it is amazing that a US citizen would be able to move to south america and be able to afford an apartment and to get a girlfriend no way women south of the border do not have sex with guys just because they are american. Did I read this correctly you have a car and one of those high tech computer thingys also . You are doing so good for yourself durito all I have is a 4 bedroom house in the states on a 1.5 acre lot, 2 cars, a laptop and a desk top, a bankroll and a girlfriend.

                                                                  I can't believe you have accumulated all of this fancy stuff by doing nothing but chasing steam???
                                                                  I guess your prop models that you spoke about a ways back are not profitable and you are not hitting BS teasers and correlated parlays for profits.

                                                                  Great example of betting a key number at a book that chose for whatever reason to set their line at 3.5, this is a great example of a +EV scenario. Only problem is that this has nothing to do with chasing steam durito as you described yourself.

                                                                  People need to stop ripping my words out of context and pointing out ridiculous examples of profitable situations, if you people could comprehend what you read you would realize that I did not say that steam movements could not "produce" profitable scenarios I simply pointed out that one will not get rich by chasing steam and beating the no-vig lines suggested win probability by 1% every time they see the board light up.

                                                                  An example for those with weak minds:
                                                                  current *(no-vig)* line after steam move- NY Yankees (-155)
                                                                  suggested win probability (60.48%)

                                                                  slow moving books line- Boston Red Sox (+158)
                                                                  break even win %(+158) = (38.76%)

                                                                  Expected win % (100-60.48)=(39.52%)
                                                                  Expected Value (158 * .3952)+(-100 * .6048)=+$1.96

                                                                  Obviously the above example has +EV "Assuming" that the market is 100% efficient in predicting the true outcome of the game. But long term this wager is a crap shoot because
                                                                  A) the market could never accurately predict the exact likelihood of a team winning, at best they can predict it within in a 95% confidence interval meaning that the true outcome of the game would only fall in the window of the yankees winning 60.48% of the time. So is your 2% edge really a 2% edge if the market is not 100%?
                                                                  B) your results could very easily deviate from your expected win %.

                                                                  Chasing steam although it can be related to, is not the same as what durito describes which is more of an example of picking off bad numbers at a square book.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • sharpcat
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 12-19-09
                                                                    • 4516

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by RonPaul2008
                                                                    You are most definitely clueless (certainly not sharp as your handle would imply) if you believe that:

                                                                    1) "Rarely are you going to beat the line by enough to make a play that has arb potential' by 'blindly betting an off number at a slow moving book"

                                                                    2) "the truth is books cut your limits because heavy steam makes it very hard for them to balance their action not because they are worried about you beating them."

                                                                    You do realize that if the action they get is heavily one-sided but they are on the right side of the line move it is easy for them to cover their open position at a profit, right? They only care if they are heavy on the wrong side of the line moves...which should tell you something.

                                                                    How it is that some people on here who claim to be sharp are so far from it just astounds me.

                                                                    Lets look at another of your statements:

                                                                    "Very rarely one may be part of a syndicate who is causing the move, but technically this person is not "chasing steam" so this player is not included in my argument."

                                                                    What makes you think that someone playing steam can't get the same line as a syndicate member?
                                                                    Go take another bong hit son

                                                                    This is the dumbest line I have ever read the answer is yes since a majority of the time steam chasers are chasing steam created by a syndicate it would only make sense that if the player were beating the steam move that he would be getting the same price as a syndicate player.

                                                                    Please take your bong hit after attempting to make an educated post and not before
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • sharpcat
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 12-19-09
                                                                      • 4516

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by trixtrix
                                                                      when someone has to resort to using their user name to self proclaim they're sharp, the chances are they're likely not, it's equivalent of coming in here w/ a username I_am_a_GENIUS!
                                                                      Ironically the Sharp in my username has absolutely nothing to do with gambling
                                                                      Comment
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