Future of the Industry

[ericmangin]

I was just reading an article that the industry might be in trouble because books are becoming flooded with too many "sharp" players.

What are your opinions on this?

What kind of money do you think these top books are making?

[Casi]

Well i do not doubt that books with a wrong business plan are in trouble..
those who give big bonuses and/or reduced juice, but are slow with moving lines for example. You have to know your own limits, it´s better to be noticed as "worthless" in a sharp players eyes for most books (like for example Legenz).

[GoodOldTed]

nothing new - there have been sharp players for years and with all the legality and payment issues from the US, books don't have unlimited access to the mugs.

Books are more likely to be in danger these days because the owners are running them against mortgages on their homes which have dropped severely in value.

Any book offering ridiculously good odds or extravagant bonus schemes is to be avoided unless they have a long track record. Like Casi said, the soundness of the business model is most important at the moment. There will always be schmucks out there who think running a sportsbook or casino is a licence to print money, purely because they are losing gamblers, so therefore everyone must be.

[Stumpage]

Yeah, to echo some points here there are books whose business approach with regards to high bonuses just makes you scratch your head. However, as to the OP's original point, I think most books with a sound business model will continue to do fine.

There are some very good players out there (And I am definitely not one of them) but there are also the core group of players who basically keep the books afloat. It's not meant as a slight against anybody, but all you have to do is visit the Main Forum and see all sorts of topics about "Going all in!", "I gotta chase!" various "systems" and those who just continue to load up the Russian Roulette 6-chamber and play in the online casinos. Not saying that these are guaranteed to fail, but all things being equal I like the books chances in any of those situations.

[Mudcat]

but all you have to do is visit the Main Forum and see all sorts of topics about "Going all in!", "I gotta chase!" various "systems" and those who just continue to load up the Russian Roulette 6-chamber and play in the online casinos. Not saying that these are guaranteed to fail, but all things being equal I like the books chances in any of those situations.

True - and I heartily encourage those sorts of players to stay their course . I have no interest in correcting them. That is a big change for me over the years. That change comes from my basic agreement with what has been said in this thread about the reduced concentration of mugs. We need mugs and lots of them.

Years ago - pre-UIGEA - I was always trying to help people. Now, I consider it an important principle not to post good betting info on public forums. And not to correct bad ideas. It goes against my instincts and I sometimes fail and will post some knowledge, but I'm getting better at it.

It is very hard to accept, but I should probably consider jjgold, the king of spreading bad betting info, my best friend. I'm not quite there yet though.

Sometimes I have a profitable angle I want input on, and I'll start typing up a thread to discuss it - and I have to stop myself.

I do my serious discussions off the forum with a small group of contacts who are sworn to never make anything public.

I'm not exaggerating. Maybe that all sounds overboard but that is how I feel.

[Dark Horse]

Losing while getting +110 odds? You would have to be asleep at the wheel to mess up that type of edge. And books have ways to limit their exposure.

One driving principle is that there is always a new challenge, so you always have to be willing to learn. Books that complain about circumstances, such as suggested in this thread, don't understand that basic idea. The best books are those that are run by sharp players who switched sides. Because they know all the ins and outs.

In general, it seems to me that there are two types of books. Those who think they can make an easy buck off a willing public, and don't respect anything or anyone but their profit margin. And those who respect, almost to the point of reverence, the very concept of betting and bookmaking, and everything it involves. Actually, there is a third type. The 'nice' book that doesn't know what it gets itself into.

So I'm not worried in the slightest about the sharp books. If, as players, they could beat the books, they will certainly be able to win on the other side. On the other hand, if I get the feeling that a book is underestimating what it takes to win, I won't go near it. (because I want to get paid, rather than take a shot at a book that everyone can take a shot at).

[ByeShea]

Personally, I don't think the offshore sports book as even begun to reach its potential, at least in the US.

Put it this way...is your "average Joe" willing to bet $50 on a football game. The answer is yes.

Next question...has your "average Joe" wagered on an online book in the past 3 years. The answer is no.

I work in affiliate marketing and have success in other fields that don't interest me. (Home remodeling, cars, audio, real estate) - sports gambling interests me and I believe most industry marketing strategies serisouly lag those of other industries. I'm here partly because I'm interested to begin with and partly because I'm fact-finding.

And to think this game is threatened by sharps? 100 years ago when organized gambling routinely reached the players. Imagine being a book out of the loop then.

[moonbeam]

I was just reading an article that the industry might be in trouble because books are becoming flooded with too many "sharp" players.

What are your opinions on this?

What kind of money do you think these top books are making?

In my opinion the whole business will collapse within the next 2 or 3 years.

95% of all books think they can earn millions with the $2 punters.

(bet365 was a good example for this kind of outdated business model)

They cant.

This business is completely sick.

That´s why it will collapse very soon.

[ericmangin]

what prevents books from taking the money and running if they get hit big?

[moonbeam]

That´s why I also think SBR is very old fashioned as long as SBR think they must provide books like bet365 (for example)

[ericmangin]

im not concerned with "most" books. Im only talking about the recommended sportsbooks. Do you guys think those books are in really good shape?

Minimum life expectancy? anyone?

[moonbeam]

what prevents books from taking the money and running if they get hit big?

I dont know. But I know nearly every book is looking for the "dumb players".

But these kind of players are lost.

That´s why these buiseness is dying very soon

[moonbeam]

I guess the A+ rated books are in a good shape at the moment.

But they want to make money... and you also want to make money. Hmmmm

We need some gold donkey

[moonbeam]

True - and I heartily encourage those sorts of players to stay their course . I have no interest in correcting them. That is a big change for me over the years. That change comes from my basic agreement with what has been said in this thread about the reduced concentration of mugs. We need mugs and lots of them.

Years ago - pre-UIGEA - I was always trying to help people. Now, I consider it an important principle not to post good betting info on public forums. And not to correct bad ideas. It goes against my instincts and I sometimes fail and will post some knowledge, but I'm getting better at it.

It is very hard to accept, but I should probably consider jjgold, the king of spreading bad betting info, my best friend. I'm not quite there yet though.

Sometimes I have a profitable angle I want input on, and I'll start typing up a thread to discuss it - and I have to stop myself.

I do my serious discussions off the forum with a small group of contacts who are sworn to never make anything public.

I'm not exaggerating. Maybe that all sounds overboard but that is how I feel.

You´re right

Great post!!

[Mark Shark]

Great post mate.

[durito]

Yes after surviving the test of time gambling will suddenly go away shortly. Drugs, prostitution and alcohol also.

The economy may pull down some books, but the strong ones will survive.

[Mark Shark]

Afew years ago I would have had some action with well over 20 different books around the world and felt very safe doing so. All books were rated at least a C with SBR. Now however I only use about 3 or 4 as I don't feel comfortable or have been given my marching orders by the handful of safe books left to bet with.

[cinpls081]

[quote=Stumpage;1658063

There are some very good players out there (And I am definitely [B]not [/b]quote]


THis just made my night too funny

[TensaZangetsu]

bro,
I think most books are prepared for this kind of thing to happen.
Maybe they do have a way on how to determine a player who is almost like a professional so they would be charging them differently..
I think most of the bookies do this. (not sure though)

[cinpls081]

im not concerned with "most" books. Im only talking about the recommended sportsbooks. Do you guys think those books are in really good shape?

Minimum life expectancy? anyone?

Honestly your money isn't safe at any of these places. Come on if I told you last year at this time Lehman Brothers, AIG CITI BAC would all be out of biz if it wasn't for the government.

Last time I checked there is no insurance at ANY book. NOT ONE OF THEM is insured don't kid yourself if you need the money don't put it in any book.

[Stumpage]

THis just made my night too funny

What a coincidence. That's exactly how I feel when trying to decipher your grammar "skills" Troglodyte. Now get back to the Dick and Jane books before you forget how to turn a page, moron.

*Oh, sorry about that cinpls...I used a "big" word and don't want you to waste 3 hours staring at your monitor all confused and drooling over the keyboard. Here you go:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decipher

[JoeVig]

I agree that it will remain tough until the fishes are allowed back offshore by repealing UIGEA. I don't know what's taking Barney Frank so long, except he wants to stick it to Fannie (oh, the irony).

[Mark Shark]

Does anyone see an end to this situation with UIGEA in the near future?

[MMM]

I was just reading an article that the industry might be in trouble because books are becoming flooded with too many "sharp" players.

What are your opinions on this?

What kind of money do you think these top books are making?

Do you have a link to the article?

Having worked for a European bookmaker, I can tell you that the number of mugs in Europe is great enough to sustain large profits. The European market is far from mature as broadband access in Central and Southern Europe is still low and sports betting culture undeveloped.

As for Latin American bookmakers catering to US customers, it is a different story. The proportion of sharp punters ought to be much larger.

If you want to know how much money bookmakers in Europe are making, have a look at Bwin, Unibet and Ladbrokes. They are public companies with public results.

[JoeVig]

If you want to know how much money bookmakers in Europe are making, have a look at Bwin, Unibet and Ladbrokes. They are public companies with public results.

Aren't they basically getting their high profits by kicking out the sharps? Just from what I see in forums, seems that a lot of those Euro books are quick to ban/limit anyone who can pick a few winners.

[topcat]

In my opinion the whole business will collapse within the next 2 or 3 years.

95% of all books think they can earn millions with the $2 punters.

(bet365 was a good example for this kind of outdated business model)

They cant.

This business is completely sick.

That´s why it will collapse very soon.

i believe if the economy picks up,and it gets easier to deposit,and withdraw with sportsbooks it will get better,thats a big if though..

[topcat]

what prevents books from taking the money and running if they get hit big?

the scary answer is nothing.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Betting Exchanges are the future. The Exchange doesn't care who wins and you can't beat the house. What we need is to allow a company like Betfair to enter the US market. What will it take to get them to enter the US market?

[JC2008]

Betting Exchanges are the future. The Exchange doesn't care who wins and you can't beat the house. What we need is to allow a company like Betfair to enter the US market. What will it take to get them to enter the US market?

Anything is possible with the current economic situation. They're talking about legalizing weed in California and setting up a government-run sportsbetting game in Delaware, much like Sports Select here in Canada.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/29660586

[Stumpage]

Betting Exchanges are the future. The Exchange doesn't care who wins and you can't beat the house. What we need is to allow a company like Betfair to enter the US market. What will it take to get them to enter the US market?

Excellent point Reggie. I signed on with Betfair last year, being able to do so as I live in Canada, and a year later I continue to kick myself that I didn't do it much earlier in my life. It's just a very secure feeling knowing that you can win an unlimited amount and it won't matter one bit; Not to mention the added bonus of absolutely abusing a "bad" line that somebody inadvertently puts up without any fear of the wager being cancelled, and this happens a lot I find. I imagine I should be more active at Matchbook as well, but to be honest I seem to have all I need at BF.

[MMM]

Aren't they basically getting their high profits by kicking out the sharps? Just from what I see in forums, seems that a lot of those Euro books are quick to ban/limit anyone who can pick a few winners.

No, they are getting their high profits from a shitload of bad gamblers. They would do fine being less restrictive on skilled punters but they are greedy.

[MMM]

Betting Exchanges are the future. The Exchange doesn't care who wins and you can't beat the house. What we need is to allow a company like Betfair to enter the US market. What will it take to get them to enter the US market?

Here in Europe, betting exchanges (or rather singular, because there is only one successful) are the present.

However, most punters are still sticking to regular bookmakers:

1. No commission so if you have a selection of bookmakers, you will most often find a better price at a bookie.

2. People find betting exchanges too complicated.

3. People love betting combos.

4. The selection for special bets is small at Betfair. Regular bookmakers have a much better depth.

5. There is no liquidity in many markets on Betfair. If you want to bet on Spanish handball or French basketball, Betfair is not the place.

6. Betfair is a poor place to bet on early markets. No liquidity.

7. When there is new information about a team or match, prices move very quickly at Betfair. Bookmakers are much slower to react.

[MMM]

What will it take Betfair to get them to enter the US market?

New legislation, maybe?

[MMM]

what prevents books from taking the money and running if they get hit big?

The prospect of future profits. Of course, that is only valid for well run sportsbooks with a solid customer base.

[betbetter]

In my opinion the whole business will collapse within the next 2 or 3 years.

95% of all books think they can earn millions with the $2 punters.

(bet365 was a good example for this kind of outdated business model)

They cant.

This business is completely sick.

That´s why it will collapse very soon.

You may not like them, but they are so large now and so entrenched, they earn tens of millions with the $2 punters.
Outdated?...not...the business is fine, no collapse, it's expanding, again...despite the recession!