Thursday's [8/23] Ninja Plays

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #1
    Thursday's [8/23] Ninja Plays
    Europa League

    Anzhi Makhachkala-AZ Both Teams to Score [-115]
    AZ is a veteran Euro squad that plays almost every year in the Europa League or Champions League. They know what to do in these situations. The dutch side is full of attacking talent and I don't think their usual style of play is to sit back and try and keep a clean sheet. I fully expect AZ to explore the Russians and look for an away goal or two. Anzhi will continue to treat the EL as a big deal, knowing the financial benefits of playing deep into the tournament. They have scored in every match of the qualification rounds and have only been blanked once in five matches in the Russian Premier League. I think they are smart enough to know they need goals if they are going to entertain hopes of advancing in the 2nd league on the road, so while they would love to keep it clean defensively - getting goals is likely more important here because of the prowess of the opposition.

    Hearts +1 [-115]
    Hearts host Liverpool and the English side will be making changes today as they keep an eye toward the weekend and a clash with Manchester City. While the likes of Gerrard, Suarez, Skertel and Glen Johnson will be rested - Liverpool still has a deep squad given that Andy Carroll likely gets a start here. Still, the Reds looked poor against West Brom in a 3-0 defeat and will be keen to turn around their EPL season first and foremost. I don't think that means they ignore this tournament with new skipper Brendan Rodgers, but I do think it means they'd be happy to keep a clean sheet or come away with an away goal to give them a heads-up for the 2nd leg. Hearts will field a strong side and look to make amends for last year's squash job at the hands of Tottenham in this competition. Hearts have started strong in the Scottish Premier League with two draws and a win. Liverpool may well win this, but I don't think the defeat will be heavy - so even if Hearts loses, the +1 could result in a push and I think they do have a real shot potentially to earn a draw.

    Draw Project [2-4 +0.64]
    Atromitos-Newcastle +216
    Crvena Zvezda-Bordeaux +248

  • camelbreath$
    SBR MVP
    • 12-04-10
    • 3267

    #2
    Gah, EP I hope not! I like Bordeax to win and also have Liverpool in a small parlay... Good luck anyhow
    Comment
    • JT OZ
      SBR MVP
      • 08-16-10
      • 2076

      #3
      EP what are your thoughts on Real-Barca BTTS? I tried to start a thread about it but nothing I start ever generates much traffic. I figure this could be a game where you would wait for it to go live but I don't have that option. This has been an auto-play for me the last 2 years and I think it has only missed once since I have been playing it.
      Comment
      • swordsandtequila
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-23-12
        • 9757

        #4
        Originally posted by JT OZ
        EP what are your thoughts on Real-Barca BTTS? I tried to start a thread about it but nothing I start ever generates much traffic. I figure this could be a game where you would wait for it to go live but I don't have that option. This has been an auto-play for me the last 2 years and I think it has only missed once since I have been playing it.
        What's the juice? No value if too high. Don't have that option @ 5Dimes (not yet, anyway). I took Barcelona ml and the over.
        Comment
        • camelbreath$
          SBR MVP
          • 12-04-10
          • 3267

          #5
          Originally posted by JT OZ
          EP what are your thoughts on Real-Barca BTTS? I tried to start a thread about it but nothing I start ever generates much traffic. I figure this could be a game where you would wait for it to go live but I don't have that option. This has been an auto-play for me the last 2 years and I think it has only missed once since I have been playing it.
          Seems just about every game they play is 2-1, 2-2 or 3-2....so much firepower on both teams. You'll be laying a lot of juice on BTTS but it is a pretty safe bet in my estimation.
          Comment
          • JT OZ
            SBR MVP
            • 08-16-10
            • 2076

            #6
            Ideally I would take it live the way EP does because it eats a lot of that juice if you can hold off for a few minutes without a goal. I don't have that option and don't see anything at 5Dimes but at one of the books I use its -180 which is the standard price in this match-up.
            Comment
            • JT OZ
              SBR MVP
              • 08-16-10
              • 2076

              #7
              Real U1/2 is only +205 which seems pretty low to me so that is what has kept me from making the bet. Wanted to get others feedback that are more in tune with these teams than I am. I'm basically going off past history as opposed to possible lineups today so I wanted to do more research before I paid that price.
              Comment
              • JT OZ
                SBR MVP
                • 08-16-10
                • 2076

                #8
                Originally posted by swordsandtequila
                What's the juice? No value if too high. Don't have that option @ 5Dimes (not yet, anyway). I took Barcelona ml and the over.
                Obviously the O3 is priced much better but its going to take a Real goal or 2 to make that happen.
                Comment
                • swordsandtequila
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-23-12
                  • 9757

                  #9
                  Originally posted by JT OZ
                  Obviously the O3 is priced much better but its going to take a Real goal or 2 to make that happen.
                  My first post wasn't very specific; took over 2.5/3 -132 and put a little on over 3 -103. It's my understanding Pepe is out.
                  Comment
                  • JT OZ
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-16-10
                    • 2076

                    #10
                    Originally posted by swordsandtequila
                    My first post wasn't very specific; took over 2.5/3 -132 and put a little on over 3 -103. It's my understanding Pepe is out.
                    I heard that as well but I can't imagine a 3-0 win but that's my problem with it is not knowing all there is about lineups/motivation of each team. It seems everyone is on Barca and think this means more to them but as previously mentioned the firepower/rivalry between the 2 makes me want to count on both scoring.
                    Comment
                    • swordsandtequila
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 02-23-12
                      • 9757

                      #11
                      I think they both score, just don't like the price. As stated before, if you have access to live betting the price should drop, just not sure how much. Good luck.
                      Comment
                      • JT OZ
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-16-10
                        • 2076

                        #12
                        Good luck to you as well appreciate the thoughts, I would imagine if one of us wins we both will so hopefully that is how it plays out.
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #13
                          -180 isn't bad for BTTS especially given the firepower. Best case if you wait in live betting is if you can ride out about 15 minutes and it would maybe be -150. Of course given both teams, it could already be 1-0 at that point too.

                          I see it at -185 @ Bovada. I didn't even think to look, but I am going to play that. Thanks for pointing it out Given that it is a Cup match, I think it is less likely than a league match to see a clean sheet.
                          Comment
                          • philliesfinest
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-13-09
                            • 1557

                            #14
                            Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                            Europa League

                            Anzhi Makhachkala-AZ Both Teams to Score [-115]
                            AZ is a veteran Euro squad that plays almost every year in the Europa League or Champions League. They know what to do in these situations. The dutch side is full of attacking talent and I don't think their usual style of play is to sit back and try and keep a clean sheet. I fully expect AZ to explore the Russians and look for an away goal or two. Anzhi will continue to treat the EL as a big deal, knowing the financial benefits of playing deep into the tournament. They have scored in every match of the qualification rounds and have only been blanked once in five matches in the Russian Premier League. I think they are smart enough to know they need goals if they are going to entertain hopes of advancing in the 2nd league on the road, so while they would love to keep it clean defensively - getting goals is likely more important here because of the prowess of the opposition.

                            Hearts +1 [-115]
                            Hearts host Liverpool and the English side will be making changes today as they keep an eye toward the weekend and a clash with Manchester City. While the likes of Gerrard, Suarez, Skertel and Glen Johnson will be rested - Liverpool still has a deep squad given that Andy Carroll likely gets a start here. Still, the Reds looked poor against West Brom in a 3-0 defeat and will be keen to turn around their EPL season first and foremost. I don't think that means they ignore this tournament with new skipper Brendan Rodgers, but I do think it means they'd be happy to keep a clean sheet or come away with an away goal to give them a heads-up for the 2nd leg. Hearts will field a strong side and look to make amends for last year's squash job at the hands of Tottenham in this competition. Hearts have started strong in the Scottish Premier League with two draws and a win. Liverpool may well win this, but I don't think the defeat will be heavy - so even if Hearts loses, the +1 could result in a push and I think they do have a real shot potentially to earn a draw.

                            Draw Project [2-4 +0.64]
                            Atromitos-Newcastle +216
                            Crvena Zvezda-Bordeaux +248

                            grt pick on the draw project one winner already
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #15
                              Yeah always like it when the 1st one hits, then you're playing with house money on the 2nd.
                              Comment
                              • EaglesPhan36
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-06-06
                                • 71662

                                #16
                                Had to settle for the Hearts push, but double draw hits today my Ninjas.
                                Comment
                                • DHB
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-14-11
                                  • 1538

                                  #17
                                  nice hit on the draws man.
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #18
                                    Goals galore in the 2nd half of the Spain Super cup.
                                    Comment
                                    • swordsandtequila
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 02-23-12
                                      • 9757

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by JT OZ
                                      Good luck to you as well appreciate the thoughts, I would imagine if one of us wins we both will so hopefully that is how it plays out.


                                      Nice Daily Double on the draws EP!
                                      Comment
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