World Cup Betting: USA Faces Crucial Test
Team USA caught a break to come away from the match against England with a draw. Now Bob Bradley's squad is in need of a convincing win on Friday against Slovenia.
So the United States is as good at soccer as England, right?
If you don’t know much about soccer, or gambling for that matter, you might think so based on their 1-1 draw with the English last Saturday at the World Cup. But there’s a reason people got paid out at +330 after that result.
Soccer in the U.S. has been a mixed bag since Bob Bradley took over the program in 2006 from his former boss, Bruce Arena. Team USA has a 3-3-1 record this year in international competition after going 13-8-3 in 2009, including that stunning 2-0 victory over then-No. 1 Spain at the Confederations Cup.
It’s not like Bradley is driving this program into the ground. He doesn’t always have access to his country’s top talent, since their clubs are not obligated to release players for the national team. Even then, Bradley has often chosen to develop younger American players by putting them on the pitch in important games, like their infamous 5-0 loss to Mexico at the 2009 Gold Cup in front of nearly 80,000 people at Giants Stadium.
That doesn’t mean Team USA is ready to compete at the same level they did at the 2002 World Cup when they reached the quarterfinals. However, it’s also likely that the Americans are better than their No. 14 spot on the FIFA World Rankings, which are based solely on results in international matches over the past four years (weighted toward more recent matches). The Americans theoretically have some value against the betting odds.
Their challenge on Friday (10:00 a.m. ET, ESPN) will be to put away a Slovenia side that figures to play defense after securing a valuable 1-0 victory over Algeria, cashing in at +115 and moving to the top of Group C.
Two of the group’s four teams advance to the Round of 16; England is likely to advance, so Slovenia will be tactically more interested in not losing than winning. A draw with the U.S. would keep the two teams three points apart in the standings with one game remaining.
With that in mind, the books have the 'under' pegged at -165 on the standard total of 2.5 goals. And the draw would pay +230, which is at the low end of the scale. The U.S. will be on the attack and are being priced accordingly at even money for the win compared to Slovenia at +260. I’ve been on my soapbox lately about the value of the draw in soccer betting, but in this situation, it’s even further justified.
The Slovenes are actually one of the better second-tier teams in Europe at No. 25 in the world rankings, allowing just three goals in their seven World Cup qualifying games and advancing at the expense of No. 11-ranked Russia. It simply makes good soccer sense for Slovenia to go defensive, rely on goalkeeper Samir Handanovic (a star for Udinese in the Italian Serie A) to hold the fort, and go on the counterattack when prudent.
That was pretty much how the Americans earned their point on Saturday. Yes, it took the mother of all soft goals against England’s Robert Green, but Tim Howard (also an international star with Everton of the English Premiership) made six saves in the second half as the U.S. held the advancing English in check. Howard did this despite suffering cracked ribs when he took a foot in the chest while diving in front of Emile Heskey. Reports at press time suggested Howard would be available against Slovenia after receiving medical clearance.
How will the United States fare when they’re the ones pressing? Perhaps not so well. They only completed 66.8 percent of their passes against England; their only worse day at the World Cup was against South Korea in 2002, when they connected on 66.4 percent in a 1-1 draw. The tricky new Jabulani ball may have something to do with it; Slovenia went 0-for-19 on their cross attempts against Algeria. Maybe a 0-0 draw is in the works for this matchup.
Team USA caught a break to come away from the match against England with a draw. Now Bob Bradley's squad is in need of a convincing win on Friday against Slovenia.
So the United States is as good at soccer as England, right?
If you don’t know much about soccer, or gambling for that matter, you might think so based on their 1-1 draw with the English last Saturday at the World Cup. But there’s a reason people got paid out at +330 after that result.
Soccer in the U.S. has been a mixed bag since Bob Bradley took over the program in 2006 from his former boss, Bruce Arena. Team USA has a 3-3-1 record this year in international competition after going 13-8-3 in 2009, including that stunning 2-0 victory over then-No. 1 Spain at the Confederations Cup.
It’s not like Bradley is driving this program into the ground. He doesn’t always have access to his country’s top talent, since their clubs are not obligated to release players for the national team. Even then, Bradley has often chosen to develop younger American players by putting them on the pitch in important games, like their infamous 5-0 loss to Mexico at the 2009 Gold Cup in front of nearly 80,000 people at Giants Stadium.
That doesn’t mean Team USA is ready to compete at the same level they did at the 2002 World Cup when they reached the quarterfinals. However, it’s also likely that the Americans are better than their No. 14 spot on the FIFA World Rankings, which are based solely on results in international matches over the past four years (weighted toward more recent matches). The Americans theoretically have some value against the betting odds.
Their challenge on Friday (10:00 a.m. ET, ESPN) will be to put away a Slovenia side that figures to play defense after securing a valuable 1-0 victory over Algeria, cashing in at +115 and moving to the top of Group C.
Two of the group’s four teams advance to the Round of 16; England is likely to advance, so Slovenia will be tactically more interested in not losing than winning. A draw with the U.S. would keep the two teams three points apart in the standings with one game remaining.
With that in mind, the books have the 'under' pegged at -165 on the standard total of 2.5 goals. And the draw would pay +230, which is at the low end of the scale. The U.S. will be on the attack and are being priced accordingly at even money for the win compared to Slovenia at +260. I’ve been on my soapbox lately about the value of the draw in soccer betting, but in this situation, it’s even further justified.
The Slovenes are actually one of the better second-tier teams in Europe at No. 25 in the world rankings, allowing just three goals in their seven World Cup qualifying games and advancing at the expense of No. 11-ranked Russia. It simply makes good soccer sense for Slovenia to go defensive, rely on goalkeeper Samir Handanovic (a star for Udinese in the Italian Serie A) to hold the fort, and go on the counterattack when prudent.
That was pretty much how the Americans earned their point on Saturday. Yes, it took the mother of all soft goals against England’s Robert Green, but Tim Howard (also an international star with Everton of the English Premiership) made six saves in the second half as the U.S. held the advancing English in check. Howard did this despite suffering cracked ribs when he took a foot in the chest while diving in front of Emile Heskey. Reports at press time suggested Howard would be available against Slovenia after receiving medical clearance.
How will the United States fare when they’re the ones pressing? Perhaps not so well. They only completed 66.8 percent of their passes against England; their only worse day at the World Cup was against South Korea in 2002, when they connected on 66.4 percent in a 1-1 draw. The tricky new Jabulani ball may have something to do with it; Slovenia went 0-for-19 on their cross attempts against Algeria. Maybe a 0-0 draw is in the works for this matchup.
