[TomJSports]

Euro has been pretty good to me, so I'm going to try a long term strategy, starting with $1,000. I had read about it, and it seems to be good, as it plays into your own hot streaks and cold streaks. Instead of Labby, or something of the sort, where you increase after losses, you instead decrease after a loss. When you're on a winning streak, you compound your bet into more winnings. It seemed intriguing, as we all have those 10 or so win streaks, and they'll add up. And you should only have one heavily researched bet pending at a time.

At any rate, your first bet is 1/11 of your bankroll. And that's risking, not to win or wager value. In the case of a loss, your bet is calculated as 1/11 of your bankroll. In case of a win, your bet risk value remains the same. In the case of a third win, you increase your risk amount by 50%. A fourth win means the same risk as the third. A fifth win means you increase by 50% and so on.

So as an example, you start with $1100, in the case of a winning streak your bets would be $100, $100, $150, $150, $225, $225, $337.5, $337,5, etc. Any time you lose, you switch back to risking 1/11 of your bankroll. The idea is that the winnings from the winning streaks will offset the losses from the losing streaks in this manner.

I'm interested to see how this plays out. As opposed to playing 3-5 small plays with a big one in there, just playing the ones you're more sure of.

[TomJSports]

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $1000
Risk Amount: $90.90

First play will be on quite the favourite: Östers IF at -160. Massive chalk, but I see this as the best match in Superettan. Öster plays very well at home historically and should beat a vastly inferior Falkenberg. However, Öster typically does not 'win big', thus I couldn't warrant the -0.75.

Östers IF to win v. Falkenberg at -160; risk $90.90 to win $56.81

[BigBurk]

Good to see you back again picking plays! Good luck on the new bankroll management, curious as tow it will turn out!

[swordsandtequila]

Major Tom! Back from the dead!

[TomJSports]

Thanks mate. I've been putzing around with plays on twitter and my blog. I've been doing pretty good (up ~13% this month) just decided to partition a bit to see how this method works out. Works on paper, but we know how that goes.

Ended up putting more massive chalk plays from the main br on BP, Ljungskile, and Östers straight and then parlayed for the hell of it. All have moved a dime since playing, so that's good. Checking to see if the method of playing just one 'best bet' at a higher percentage works best in the longrun.

[PHyldahl]

who came up with this "method"?

don't be mad, but this is just another homemade "method/system" that has nothing to do with math or basic money management.

just telling you pal either way good luck.

[TomJSports]

Honestly do not know. I had seen it or things similar posted elsewhere. No reason for me to be mad, it's not like I created it. I simulated a lot of potential runs with typical betting streaks and ended up on top, so I decided to give it a little run with a small roll. Frankly, I'd agree with you, the numbers don't make a tonne of sense. I suppose 1/11 is theoretically to coincide with a typical -110 line. And then you don't up your bets until you have a 'significant' 2, 4, 6, etc streak. But yeah, seems quite 'homemade', and certainly not sold on it myself, hence the trial period. Appreciate the input, mate.

[TomJSports]

Östers IF to win v. Falkenberg at -160; risk $90.90 to win $56.81 - WIN

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $1056.81
Risk Amount: $96.07
Streak: Win 1

Looks like the -0.75 would've paid, too. Same with BP. And of course Ljungskile lets in 3 to a team that had score 1 on the road in 6 outings. Anyway, hope this is the start of a long streak.

[TomJSports]

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $1056.81
Risk Amount: $90.90 (above post was wrong, my apologies)
Streak: win 1

I've loved the way the Czechs played and had them to qualify (with Russia, of course), but I think their story ends here with the Portuguese firing on all cylinders and CR7 finding an extra gear last game. Rosický is doubtful for the game, and even though Jiráček has been fantastic in all aspects, the Portuguese are too strong and peaking. Heart would like a Czech win, but brain (and money) will be on the Portuguese.

Portugal to win v. Czech Rep -125 risk $90.90 to win $72.72

[silvap]

I've also taken portugal on this game, BOL sir

[odog11]

Good luck, will be checkin' it out and checking in most likely. I like this play, may wait and see what the word on Rosický is a little closer to game time.

[TomJSports]

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $1129.53
Risk Amount: $136.35 ($90.90*1.5)
Streak: win 2

Portugal got the late win, but a win is a win. Don't know where I'm leaning on the Euro match tomorrow. Logic says 2-0, 3-0, win for Gemrany, but with Euro, logic goes out the window.

[TomJSports]

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $1129.53
Risk Amount: $136.35 ($90.90*1.5)
Streak: win 2

I'll admit I jumped on at a bad time, but I wanted to look in every angle, myself. Unfortunately this was at +110, supposedly +120 earlier. Now at -109, I still think it's the correct play. I see Germany-Greece either being 1-0 or 2-0. Germany is not the type of team to pour it on, and I cannot see the Greek attack with absences scoring one. Out of my main roll, I'll have plays on those two straight scores.

Euro 2012 Germany/Greece u2.5 -110 risk $136.35 to win $125.09

[TomJSports]

Good luck, will be checkin' it out and checking in most likely. I like this play, may wait and see what the word on Rosický is a little closer to game time.

I really wonder if Rosický would've made a difference. Give that Czech team a semblance of attack and with Čech playing out of his mind, the Czechs could've pulled it off. Would've been amazing to watch that.

[TomJSports]

Euro 2012 Germany/Greece u2.5 -110 risk $136.35 to win $125.09 --- LOSS

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $993.18
Next Risk Amount: $90.29 ($993.18/11)
Streak: lost 1
Record: 2-1

Bummer of a loss. Did not see the Greeks scoring one, let alone two (feel bad for those that bet the u5.5 live with that penalty.) And the Germans finally buried things in the second. Real great game, and super pleased at how the Germans won. But bummed about the loss.

[TomJSports]

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $993.18
Next Risk Amount: $90.29 ($993.18/11)
Streak: lost 1
Record: 2-1

Had to see this play coming. No doubt the Spanish beat their rivals here. I just didn't see enough from Spain to warrant otherwise. And Spain is...well...Spain. Would I love to see the French win? Of course, probably everyone outside of Spain would. But money has to be on Spain here.

Spain to win vs. France -126 risk $90.29 to win $71.66

[TomJSports]

Spain to win vs. France -126 risk $90.29 to win $71.66 --- WIN
Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $1064.84
Next Risk Amount: $90.29 (same)
Streak: win 1
Record: 3-1


Solid 2-0 win for the Spanish. Hit my 2-0 exact score (had 2-0 and 1-0) but damn did they look bad. No way they beat Germany if they play that garbage football. Hell, may not be able to beat Portugal. England/Italy is a game I'm staying away from. English are clicking, and Italy is playing punishing defense. Tough to call.

[TomJSports]

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $1064.84
Next Risk Amount: $90.29 (same)
Streak: win 1
Record: 3-1

I love this play in Assyriska. Assyriska is a good, proud squad and should punish a Div. 1 squad in Umeĺ. In Södertälje, Assyriska is undefeated pummeling a decent Jönköping squad 4-1 in their last match at home. Umeĺ has a long way to travel now in Superettan and has posted decent, but not great results, and they haven't seen fans as crazy as the Assyriska fans. BP over Värnamo is a solid play as well, but BP is on the road, and not a great road squad. At any rate, I like Assyriska to win by two, with a little protection on a one goal victory.

Superettan Assyriska -1.25 over Umeĺ -106 risk $90.29 to win $85.18

[TomJSports]

Superettan Assyriska -1.25 over Umeĺ -106 risk $90.29 to win $85.18 --- LOSS

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $974.55
Next Risk Amount: $88.59 ($974.55/11)
Streak: loss 1
Record: 3-2

Bad loss Umeĺ showed up, and Assyriska did not in a 1-1 draw. And of course, BP or the Eng/Esp under would have hit.

Lots of matches in Finland and Sweden tomorrow. MyPa/Jaro under, Helsinki -1, and maybe Inter Turku -1 are all solid looking plays. But the one I like best is the Kuopion Palloseura and Mariehamn over 2.5. Goals for plaus goals against for KuPS at home is 3.00 and for Mariehamn on the road, it is 3.80. Throw in the fact that 8 of the past 10 matches between the two have been over, and it looks quite promising. And both are in good over form with KuPS hitting in the last 4 at home in Veikkausliiga play, and the last three road Mariehamn games.

Veikkausliiga KuPS/Mariehamn o2.5 -130 risk $88.59 to win $68.15

[swordsandtequila]

Yeah, Assyriska was a let down. Good luck today!

[TomJSports]

Veikkausliiga KuPS/Mariehamn o2.5 -130 risk $88.59 to win $68.15 --- LOSS

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $885.96
Next Risk Amount: $80.54 ($885.96/11)
Streak: loss 2
Record: 3-3

Yeah man, again another let down. Stopped following when it was 0-0 still at 60', of course KuPS made it interesting with two goals. MyPa under hit. But at any rate, this match coming up in Euro is tough to stay away from. It's a big rivalry game, and I cannot see Spain coming out as poorly as they played in their last match. Especially with a favourable line and a gulf in class between Spain and the world. Like the France match, heart will be on Portugal, but brain and money will be on Spain.

Euro 2012 Spain to win v Portugal -103 Risking $80.54 To Win $78.19

[chidondollars]

Am not tailing this unless i see how Raul will mark his team mate today atleast for 45mins.Bol on ur picks

[TomJSports]

Euro 2012 Spain to win v Portugal -103 Risking $80.54 To Win $78.19

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $805.42
Next Risk Amount: $73.22 ($805.42/11)
Streak: loss 3
Record: 3-4

Well, my group stage winnings keep dwindling. At least this is what testing teh system is about. Now I just have to go on a longer winning streak. Anyway, my pick for today should not come as much of a surprise. Italy does not have much offense and while they do have punishing defense, I like Germany to take this in regular time. I don't like Italy to score, and I cannot see another 0-0 result. Podo, Gomez, and Müller should be back and should take it to the Italians. I was debating on making this play Italy u0.5, but I'll just go with the Germany win.

Euro 2012 Germany to win v Italy -106 Risking $73.22 to win $68.43

[TomJSports]

Well, history came knocking and Italy is up 2-0. Just had to remind Germany that they own them in big Cup competitions. C'mon second half.

[TomJSports]

Euro 2012 Germany to win v Italy -106 Risking $73.22 to win $68.43 --- LOSS

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $732.20
Next Risk Amount: $66.56 ($732.20/11)
Streak: loss 4
Record: 3-5

Got back in town and figured I'd try to resurrect this guy. Looking over the Europa League, I really like this one game. Kalmar is the far superior team than this Northern Irish squad, and they need to win by two to advance on aggregate. No way they don't get this done 3-0 or 4-0 despite some poor recent Allsvenskan play.

Europa League Kalmar FF -1.75 vs. Cliftonville at -115 risk $66.56 to win $57.88

[TomJSports]

Europa League Kalmar FF -1.75 vs. Cliftonville at -115 risk $66.56 to win $57.88 --- WIN

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $798.76
Next Risk Amount: $66.56 (same)
Streak: win 1
Record: 4-5

KFF came through as expected. Now, it was between Aarhus and Basel today, but I had to go with Basel. They're 4-1 in the recent matches with Servette and 9-1 in the last 10. Plus 5-0 in the last five in Basel, with 5-0 and 3-0 victories happening last year. Losing Xhaka and Shaqiri to the Bundesliga hurts, but Basel always fills holes and does well. I expect them to get at least a two goal win here at home.

Axpo Super League Basel -0.75 vs. Servette at +106 risk $66.56 to win $70.55

[Vaughany]

Europa League Kalmar FF -1.75 vs. Cliftonville at -115 risk $66.56 to win $57.88 --- WIN

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $798.76
Next Risk Amount: $66.56 (same)
Streak: win 1
Record: 4-5

KFF came through as expected. Now, it was between Aarhus and Basel today, but I had to go with Basel. They're 4-1 in the recent matches with Servette and 9-1 in the last 10. Plus 5-0 in the last five in Basel, with 5-0 and 3-0 victories happening last year. Losing Xhaka and Shaqiri to the Bundesliga hurts, but Basel always fills holes and does well. I expect them to get at least a two goal win here at home.

Axpo Super League Basel -0.75 vs. Servette at +106 risk $66.56 to win $70.55

Yep, on Basel as well. Theyve also lost David ABraham to Getafe and Chipperfield. Diaz and Sauro could be solid signings tho.

[swordsandtequila]

Europa League Kalmar FF -1.75 vs. Cliftonville at -115 risk $66.56 to win $57.88 --- WIN

Starting Bankroll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $798.76
Next Risk Amount: $66.56 (same)
Streak: win 1
Record: 4-5

KFF came through as expected. Now, it was between Aarhus and Basel today, but I had to go with Basel. They're 4-1 in the recent matches with Servette and 9-1 in the last 10. Plus 5-0 in the last five in Basel, with 5-0 and 3-0 victories happening last year. Losing Xhaka and Shaqiri to the Bundesliga hurts, but Basel always fills holes and does well. I expect them to get at least a two goal win here at home.

Axpo Super League Basel -0.75 vs. Servette at +106 risk $66.56 to win $70.55

Unless I'm mistaken, this is a road game. And they lost their last game against Servette, on May 20th, also on the road. Does that change your feelings about this game and/or the spread? Thanks.

[Vaughany]

Unless I'm mistaken, this is a road game. And they lost their last game against Servette, on May 20th, also on the road. Does that change your feelings about this game and/or the spread? Thanks.

They were resting their 2 best players in tht game as they'd won the league weeks before (broke the record) and were just taking it easy. Both main strikers Streller (captain) and Alexander Frei (top goalscorer) werent playing so tht result should not really be taken in to consideration. Moreover, Servette have lost 4 key players who played in tht game including centre back Roderick who was on loan from Benfica, No10 Stephane Nater who has gone to St Gallen, Yartey (striker who scored first goal in tht 2-1 win) who was also on loan last season, and also probably their best player Eudis (who scored the winner) who has gone to Dinamo Tblisi

[swordsandtequila]

They were resting their 2 best players in tht game as they'd won the league weeks before (broke the record) and were just taking it easy. Both main strikers Streller (captain) and Alexander Frei (top goalscorer) werent playing so tht result should not really be taken in to consideration. Moreover, Servette have lost 4 key players who played in tht game including centre back Roderick who was on loan from Benfica, No10 Stephane Nater who has gone to St Gallen, Yartey (striker who scored first goal in tht 2-1 win) who was also on loan last season, and also probably their best player Eudis (who scored the winner) who has gone to Dinamo Tblisi

[cjackson0701]

would u guys take basel at -1ev?

[TomJSports]

Bah, doesn't change my feelings that this is a road game. Thanks for pointing that out. Vaughany is spot on with that last match in Genčve, lots of movement since. Basel is a powerhouse in this league and wants to break some more records. The line on -0.75 hit -132, I believe, so that's a decent sign. Basel -1 at EV is an interesting prop. As I like Basel to win this soundly, it's probably be fine. Just a goal win gets your money back. But with how they'd been trouncing Servette, I wouldn't see why not.

[Vaughany]

Servette not lookin bad early on

[Vaughany]

Frei with a good shot there

[Vaughany]

Not lookin good so far...Servette are in control