Higher Risk Plays

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  • Thryleon
    SBR Rookie
    • 06-22-16
    • 43

    #71
    KATCHASE I studied your system and actually what you are saying is a bit different than what the thread title implies. Anyway I am here to suggest a different strategy. If you want to make real money you can do so by taking advantage of odd differences. Let me give you an example:

    Team A - Team B
    Odds at bookmaker a: 1.32 for TEAM A
    Odds at bookmaker b: 1.45 for TEAM A
    Odds at bookmaker c: 1.56 for TEAM B at some form of Asian Handicap
    Odds at bookmaker d: 1.65 for TEAM B at a different form of Asian Handicap
    Odds at bookmaker e: 1.70 for TEAM B at whatever handicap is offered.

    Betting $100 to each of the above will get you a different return. Your way is betting to bookie a to get $32 return or to bookie e to get $70 in return. Your ideal solution would be to be able to see ALL the odds offered across the board for an event by let's say 10 different bookies, split your bet across the board and get a lot more in return.

    The mathematics of it:

    Total bet $1000

    Returns:
    Book a only: $320
    Book b only: $450
    Book c only: $560
    Book d only: $650
    Book e only: $700

    Split $200 per bookie:
    64+90+112+130+140 = $536.

    Advantage: If you play the book e option and you lose the handicap terms you lose your enire stake. To give you double the odds of the event without handicap, usually implies that the terms of the handicap are hard to get. Which increases the odds of you losing your stake. Playing across the board will give you the option of balancing up should the case be that you lose one bet but win another.

    This is safer betting thamn your suggestion. But it does give you the opportunity to remedy the loss of your entire stake should you be wrong.
    Comment
    • Stackzilla
      SBR MVP
      • 05-26-15
      • 3372

      #72
      he's betting TO win $100 not $100 on each play
      Comment
      • KATCHASE
        SBR MVP
        • 01-06-10
        • 1755

        #73
        Thryleon...Sounds like an interesting type of hedge betting. Thanks for sharing!
        Comment
        • KATCHASE
          SBR MVP
          • 01-06-10
          • 1755

          #74
          I've applied my selection strategy to matches over the past year and I thought I'd share my backtesting results (July 1, 2015 to July 3, 2016)...

          Odds.........Wins.....Losses.....Win %.....Units
          1.01-1.09 .....80 ..........5 ...........94% .......+9.6
          1.10-1.19 .....161 ........24 ............87% ......+3.9
          1.20-1.29 ....164 ........27 ...........86% .....+47.5
          1.30-1.39 ....173 .........51 ...........77% .....+25.8
          1.40-1.49 ....149 .........62 ...........71% ......+9.3
          TOTALS ......727 .......169 ..........81% ....+96.1


          The plays I've been posting on this thread include those falling within two odds ranges - the 1.20 to 1.29 range and 1.30 to 1.39 odds range.

          I fully understand that past results do not guarantee future success, but I personally enjoy the challenge and the journey. Best of luck to everyone. :-)
          Comment
          • KATCHASE
            SBR MVP
            • 01-06-10
            • 1755

            #75
            20/7

            10:00


            Europe » Champions League » FC Astana (Kaz) - Zalgiris (Ltu)
            Tip 1 @ 1.39
            Comment
            • KATCHASE
              SBR MVP
              • 01-06-10
              • 1755

              #76
              14:45

              Europe » Champions League » D. Zagreb (Cro) - Vardar (Mac)
              Tip 1 @ 1.29
              Comment
              • intermission
                SBR MVP
                • 05-12-15
                • 2499

                #77
                fuk yea last minute goal!!!
                Comment
                • KATCHASE
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-06-10
                  • 1755

                  #78
                  RECORD: 29-10 (-1.4 units)

                  Originally posted by KATCHASE
                  20/7

                  10:00


                  Europe » Champions League » FC Astana (Kaz) - Zalgiris (Ltu)
                  Tip 1 @ 1.39
                  Originally posted by KATCHASE
                  14:45

                  Europe » Champions League » D. Zagreb (Cro) - Vardar (Mac)
                  Tip 1 @ 1.29
                  Comment
                  • KATCHASE
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-06-10
                    • 1755

                    #79
                    23/7

                    10:00

                    Sweden » Allsvenskan » Norrkoping - Gefle
                    Tip 1 @ 1.38
                    Comment
                    • KATCHASE
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-06-10
                      • 1755

                      #80
                      13:00
                      Slovakia » Fortuna liga » Trencin - Senica
                      Tip 1 @ 1.42

                      14:15
                      Slovenia » Prva liga » Radomlje - O. Ljubljana
                      Tip 2 @ 1.36
                      Comment
                      • Duckshit
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 10-06-10
                        • 7964

                        #81
                        Thanks katchase, I picked up the 14:15 play -1.5 -105...Nice 90th min winna!
                        Comment
                        • KATCHASE
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-06-10
                          • 1755

                          #82
                          Originally posted by Duckshit
                          Thanks katchase, I picked up the 14:15 play -1.5 -105...Nice 90th min winna!
                          Nice!
                          Comment
                          • KATCHASE
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-06-10
                            • 1755

                            #83
                            RECORD: 32-10 (+1.6 units)

                            Originally posted by KATCHASE
                            23/7

                            10:00

                            Sweden » Allsvenskan » Norrkoping - Gefle
                            Tip 1 @ 1.38
                            Originally posted by KATCHASE
                            13:00
                            Slovakia » Fortuna liga » Trencin - Senica
                            Tip 1 @ 1.42

                            14:15
                            Slovenia » Prva liga » Radomlje - O. Ljubljana
                            Tip 2 @ 1.36
                            Comment
                            • Duckshit
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 10-06-10
                              • 7964

                              #84
                              Excellent, I'll be excited to roll with you into the GrEeN!
                              Comment
                              • KATCHASE
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-06-10
                                • 1755

                                #85
                                25/7

                                19:00
                                Brazil » Série A » Flamengo RJ - America **
                                Tip 1 @ 1.37
                                Comment
                                • KATCHASE
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-06-10
                                  • 1755

                                  #86
                                  RECORD: 33-10 (+2.6 units)

                                  Originally posted by KATCHASE
                                  25/7

                                  19:00
                                  Brazil » Série A » Flamengo RJ - America **
                                  Tip 1 @ 1.37
                                  Comment
                                  • KATCHASE
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-06-10
                                    • 1755

                                    #87
                                    26/7

                                    14:45
                                    Europe » Champions League » D. Zagreb (Cro) - Dinamo Tbilisi (Geo)
                                    Tip 1 @ 1.32
                                    Comment
                                    • KATCHASE
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-06-10
                                      • 1755

                                      #88
                                      RECORD: 34-10 (+3.6 units)

                                      Originally posted by KATCHASE
                                      26/7

                                      14:45
                                      Europe » Champions League » D. Zagreb (Cro) - Dinamo Tbilisi (Geo)
                                      Tip 1 @ 1.32
                                      Comment
                                      • KATCHASE
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-06-10
                                        • 1755

                                        #89
                                        27/7

                                        14:45
                                        Europe » Champions League » Olympiakos Piraeus (Gre) - H. Beer Sheva (Isr)
                                        Tip 1 @ 1.30
                                        Comment
                                        • frankyyv24
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 04-02-14
                                          • 104

                                          #90
                                          Lets get it!
                                          Comment
                                          • STAY STRONG
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-07-10
                                            • 2498

                                            #91
                                            Good luck.
                                            Comment
                                            • KATCHASE
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-06-10
                                              • 1755

                                              #92
                                              RECORD: 34-11 (+0.27 units)

                                              Originally posted by KATCHASE
                                              27/7

                                              14:45
                                              Europe » Champions League » Olympiakos Piraeus (Gre) - H. Beer Sheva (Isr)
                                              Tip 1 @ 1.30
                                              Comment
                                              • KATCHASE
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-06-10
                                                • 1755

                                                #93
                                                28/7

                                                13:00
                                                Europe » Europa League » Austria Vienna (Aut) - Trnava (Svk)
                                                Tip 1 @ 1.36

                                                14:00
                                                Europe » Europa League » Genk (Bel) - Cork City (Irl)
                                                Tip 1 @ 1.33
                                                Comment
                                                • KATCHASE
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-06-10
                                                  • 1755

                                                  #94
                                                  RECORD: 35-12 (-1.51units)

                                                  Originally posted by KATCHASE
                                                  28/7

                                                  13:00

                                                  Europe » Europa League » Austria Vienna (Aut) - Trnava (Svk)
                                                  Tip 1 @ 1.36


                                                  14:00
                                                  Europe » Europa League » Genk (Bel) - Cork City (Irl)
                                                  Tip 1 @ 1.33
                                                  Comment
                                                  • KATCHASE
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-06-10
                                                    • 1755

                                                    #95
                                                    29/7

                                                    07:00

                                                    Vietnam » V-League » T&T Ha Noi - Dong Thap
                                                    Tip 1 @ 1.22

                                                    14:00
                                                    Croatia » 1. HNL » D. Zagreb - Belupo
                                                    Tip 1 @ 1.25
                                                    Comment
                                                    • cryptocap
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-04-14
                                                      • 1528

                                                      #96
                                                      ^ how are these high risk
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Stackzilla
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 05-26-15
                                                        • 3372

                                                        #97
                                                        KATCHASE bets to win 1 unit so 1.22 the risk is 4.54 units to win 1 unit (high risk) and for 1.20 the risk is 4 units to win 1 unit. Risking 8.54 units to win 2 units is a risky play regardless of how good the team is.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • KATCHASE
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-06-10
                                                          • 1755

                                                          #98
                                                          Yes...you've got it. And that is exactly what I mean by "high risk".

                                                          I'm not guaranteeing anything. However, according to my backtesting results, my selection strategy showed some positive results over the past year. Winnings ranged between -14 units and +84 units. I personally bet what I can afford to lose, and use this thread for tracking the results.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Stackzilla
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-26-15
                                                            • 3372

                                                            #99
                                                            Originally posted by KATCHASE
                                                            I've applied my selection strategy to matches over the past year and I thought I'd share my backtesting results (July 1, 2015 to July 3, 2016)...

                                                            Odds.........Wins.....Losses.....Win %.....Units
                                                            1.01-1.09 .....80 ..........5 ...........94% .......+9.6
                                                            1.10-1.19 .....161 ........24 ............87% ......+3.9
                                                            1.20-1.29 ....164 ........27 ...........86% .....+47.5
                                                            1.30-1.39 ....173 .........51 ...........77% .....+25.8
                                                            1.40-1.49 ....149 .........62 ...........71% ......+9.3
                                                            TOTALS ......727 .......169 ..........81% ....+96.1


                                                            The plays I've been posting on this thread include those falling within two odds ranges - the 1.20 to 1.29 range and 1.30 to 1.39 odds range.

                                                            I fully understand that past results do not guarantee future success, but I personally enjoy the challenge and the journey. Best of luck to everyone. :-)
                                                            Yes, your back testing results point to a profitable strategy especially in the 1.20-1.29 range. Overall totals is even more impressive, for me it's tough to justify a 4 unit play to make 1 unit. I know some are looking for that 1 "for sure winner" and will only play these types of odds on occasion but your showing that if a person was to only play these odds (big favorites) that over time it can be profitable except the down swing can be rough. I'd like to back-test further for you if you don't mind specifying how you did your back-testing, was it certain teams or certain leagues?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Duckshit
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 10-06-10
                                                              • 7964

                                                              #100
                                                              Thanks for sharing.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • KATCHASE
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-06-10
                                                                • 1755

                                                                #101
                                                                I crossed referenced games across many leagues according to various stats with their posted odds. Unfortunately some cross-referencing shortcuts that I use aren't available for games past one year. Otherwise, I wouldn't hesitate on further backtesting. And you're exactly right...I'm hoping that my strategy may reveal that playing these "big favorites" over time may be profitable, but a heavy down swing can be rough - with the most recorded over the past year being -14 units. The major upswing last year began in late December.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Stackzilla
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 05-26-15
                                                                  • 3372

                                                                  #102
                                                                  thanks, I got an idea oddsportal keeps very good records of odds dating back a few years. I'll look into a few teams that you've already wagered on as well as a few top teams and I'll see what I can find
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • KATCHASE
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-06-10
                                                                    • 1755

                                                                    #103
                                                                    RECORD: 36-13 (-4.51 units)

                                                                    Originally posted by KATCHASE
                                                                    29/7

                                                                    07:00

                                                                    Vietnam » V-League » T&T Ha Noi - Dong Thap
                                                                    Tip 1 @ 1.22


                                                                    14:00
                                                                    Croatia » 1. HNL » D. Zagreb - Belupo
                                                                    Tip 1 @ 1.25
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cryptocap
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-04-14
                                                                      • 1528

                                                                      #104
                                                                      ahhh ok...its the kinda risk that is on your bankroll not the outcome probability
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • KATCHASE
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-06-10
                                                                        • 1755

                                                                        #105
                                                                        30/7

                                                                        Live in-play @ 15'

                                                                        Denmark » Superliga » FC Copenhagen - Nordsjaelland
                                                                        Tip 1 @ 1.33
                                                                        Comment
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