KATCHASE's Parlay Chase Experiment

[KATCHASE]

I am starting a new thread to track the practical application and sustainability of a 2-team parlay chase strategy.

The results to date are 3-0 (+3 units), plus one bet pending today, as documented here: "http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-bet...oject-p10.html".

How it works...

Each bet will be a parlay of 2 teams "to win", and will typically consist of heavy favorites with very low odds. This will be a chase experiment where every loss will be followed by a bet to win back the units lost + 1 unit.

(A) BET:
The first bet in a chase series will be referred to as an (A) bet.
An (A) bet will be played to win 1 unit.
If that bet wins, the series is over and I move on the next (A) bet.

(B) BET:
If an (A) bet loses, the next play in the series will be referred to as a (B) bet.
A (B) bet will be played to win back the units lost on the (A) bet + 1 unit.
If a (B) bet wins, the series is over.

(C) BET:
If a (B) bet loses, the next play in the series will be referred to as a (C) bet.
A (C) bet will be played to win back the units lost on the (A) bet + the units lost on the (B) bet + 1 unit.
If a (C) bet wins, the series is over

(D) BET:
If a (C) bet loses, the next play in the series will be referred to as a (D) bet.
A (D) bet will will be played to win back the units lost on the (A) bet + (B) bet + (C) bet + 1 unit.
If a (D) bet wins, the series is over.

With unlimited resources, this could carry on indefinitely (and guarantee profits), but I for one don't have unlimited resources and am hoping to not have to move past a (D) bet.

Because some games will be starting at the same time, or very close together, I expect to have some over-lapping series. I will assign each bet a number such as #1(A)...where '#1' refers to the series number and '(A)' refers to the bet type.

[KATCHASE]

(Originally Posted by KATCHASE: http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-bet...oject-p10.html)

Saturday's Results: 3-0 (+3 units)

Saturday, August 10:

#1(A) Rabotnicki (Macedonia) + Daugavpils (Latvia) @ 1.53 (1.87 units to win 1 unit)
#2(A) PARTIZAN (SERBIA) + MARIBOR (SLOVENIA) @ 1.34 (2.95 units to win 1 unit)
#3(A) PSV (NETHERLANDS) + FC PORTO (PORTUGAL) @ 1.37 (2.71 units to win 1 unit)


RECORD: 3-0 (+3 units)
______________________
PENDING: 0 bets, 0 units

[KATCHASE]

(Originally Posted by KATCHASE: http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-bet...oject-p11.html)

Sunday, August 11:

#4(A) ROCHEDALE (AUSTRALIA) + BOTEV PLOVDIV (BULGARIA) @ 1.36 (2.78 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

#5(A) DNIPRO (UKRAINE) + VIDEOTON (HUNGARY) @ 1.49 (2.04 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

#6(A) LEVANGER (NORWAY) + SPORTING CRYSTAL (PERU) @1.47 (2.13 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

#7(A) DINAMO KIEV (UKR) + EMELEC (ECU) @ 1.5 (2 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

#7(A) DINAMO KIEV (UKR) + EMELEC (ECU) @ 1.5 (2 units to win 1 unit) | #7(B) PESCARA (ITL) + EMELEC (ECU) @ 1.46 (6.52 units to win 3 units)

[brigade125]

good job today...

[KATCHASE]

good job today...

Thanks brigade125

[KATCHASE]

Sunday's Results: 3 wins (+3 units), 1 open

Sunday, August 11:

#4(A) ROCHEDALE (AUSTRALIA) + BOTEV PLOVDIV (BULGARIA) @ 1.36 (2.78 units to win 1 unit)

#5(A) DNIPRO (UKRAINE) + VIDEOTON (HUNGARY) @ 1.49 (2.04 units to win 1 unit)

#6(A) LEVANGER (NORWAY) + SPORTING CRYSTAL (PERU) @1.47 (2.13 units to win 1 unit)

#7(A) DINAMO KIEV (UKR) + EMELEC (ECU) @ 1.5 (2 units to win 1 unit) |#7(B) PESCARA (ITL) + EMELEC (ECU) @ 1.46 (6.52 units to win 3 units)

RECORD: 6-0 (+6 units)
______________________
OPEN CHASE SERIES:
#4(A) ROCHEDALE (AUSTRALIA) + BOTEV PLOVDIV (BULGARIA) @ 1.36 (2.78 units to win 1 unit)

[Jaszaafca]

Nice Thread man but you will only pick low odds?

[KATCHASE]

Nice Thread man but you will only pick low odds?

At this point, yes. My "safest" bets tend to have very low odds. And what I'm striving for is a high win rate in order to avoid going too deep into a series.

[EasyPicks]

Don't want to be the joy killer but the experience you are in is going to cost you big money. If you on bet B are already betting 6.5u....it will be hard to reach to D bet let alone to recover from a D loss.

But I wish you the best and all the support for a successful season.

[KATCHASE]

Thank you for your support Easy.

Yes, I am well aware of the figures pertaining to this experience. The average odds of the 8 parlays I've posted to date is 1.44. At average odds of 1.44, the cost of each bet in approximation will be as follows:

(A) Bet: 2.27 units to win 1 unit
(B) Bet: 7.44 units to win 3.27 units
(C) Bet: 24.34 units to win 10.71 units
(D) Bet: 79.66 units to win 35.05 units
(E) Bet: 260.71 units to win 114.71 units

I am prepared to accept these odds for the purpose of this experiment. I guess I'll just be taking things one bet at a time and hope for the best.

[KATCHASE]

Tuesday, August 13:

#4(A) ROCHEDALE (AUSTRALIA) + BOTEV PLOVDIV (BULGARIA) @ 1.36 (2.78 units to win 1 unit) | #4(B) VENTSPILS (LAT) + tomorrow... GERMANY (FRIENDLIES) @ 1.34 (11.12 units to win 3.78 units)

[KATCHASE]

Wednesday, August 14:

#8(A) MOLDOVA (FRI) + ICELAND (FRI) @ 1.44 (2.27 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

Friday, August 16:

#4(A) ROCHEDALE (AUSTRALIA) + BOTEV PLOVDIV (BULGARIA) @ 1.36 (2.78 units to win 1 unit) | #4(B) VENTSPILS (LAT) + tomorrow... GERMANY (FRIENDLIES) @ 1.34 (11.12 units to win 3.78 units | #4 (C) DAUGAVA RIGA (LAT) + SIAULIAI (LIT) @ 1.4 (37.25 units to win 14.9 units)

RECORD: 6-0 (+6 units)
______________________
OPEN CHASE SERIES:
#8(A) MOLDOVA (FRI) + ICELAND (FRI) @ 1.44 (2.27 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

Friday, August 16:

#4(A) ROCHEDALE (AUSTRALIA) + BOTEV PLOVDIV (BULGARIA) @ 1.36 (2.78 units to win 1 unit) | #4(B) VENTSPILS (LAT) + tomorrow... GERMANY (FRIENDLIES) @ 1.34 (11.12 units to win 3.78 units | #4 (C) DAUGAVA RIGA (LAT) + SIAULIAI (LIT) @ 1.4 (37.25 units to win 14.9 units)

RECORD: 7-0 (+7 units)
______________________
OPEN CHASE SERIES:
#8(A) MOLDOVA (FRI) + ICELAND (FRI) @ 1.44 (2.27 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

Saturday, August 17:

#8(A) MOLDOVA (FRI) + ICELAND (FRI) @ 1.44 (2.27 units to win 1 unit) | #8(B) PENINSULA (AUS) + BAYERN II (GER-REG BAYERN) @ 1.31 (10.55 units to win 3.27 units)

[EasyPicks]

why not heavy fav's well known?

[chidondollars]

why not heavy fav's well known?

they are not reliable

[EasyPicks]

they are not reliable

for 4 or 5 chases like he does....they are!

Just pick: Barcelona, Real, FC Porto, Lyon, Chelsea, Bayern

[EasyPicks]

and the best of it all, most of the time you get odds like 1.30~1.40 on each. so if you add two of them you'll get 1.69~1.96

[KATCHASE]

#8(A) MOLDOVA (FRI) + ICELAND (FRI) @ 1.44 (2.27 units to win 1 unit) | #8(B) PENINSULA (AUS) + BAYERN II (GER-REG BAYERN) @ 1.31 (10.55 units to win 3.27 units) | #8(C) BAYERN II (GER-REG BAYERN) + SJK (FIN) @ 1.37 (37.35 units to win 13.82 units)

[KATCHASE]

#9(A) ATLANTAS (LIT) VS. HAKA (FIN) @ 1.34 (2.95 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

Saturday's Results: 2 wins (+2 units), 0 open

#8(A) MOLDOVA (FRI) + ICELAND (FRI) @ 1.44 (2.27 units to win 1 unit) | #8(B) PENINSULA (AUS) + BAYERN II (GER-REG BAYERN) @ 1.31 (10.55 units to win 3.27 units) | #8(C) BAYERN II (GER-REG BAYERN) + SJK (FIN) @ 1.37 (37.35 units to win 13.82 units)

#9(A) ATLANTAS (LIT) VS. HAKA (FIN) @ 1.34 (2.95 units to win 1 unit)

RECORD: 9-0 (+9 units)
______________________
OPEN CHASE SERIES: 0

[KATCHASE]

Sunday, August 18:


#10(A) BRISBANE (AUS) + ST. LIEGE (BEL) @ 1.46 (2.18 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

#10(A) BRISBANE (AUS) + ST. LIEGE (BEL) @ 1.46 (2.18 units to win 1 unit) | #10(B) GUANGZHOU R&F (CHINA) + WOLFSBURG II (GER REG N) @ 1.40 (7.95 units to win 3.18 units)

[KATCHASE]

#11(A) ST. LIEGE (BEL) + GRANITAS K (LIT) @ 1.46 (2.18 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

#12(A) CHELSEA (ENG) + NYKOPINGS (SWE) @ 1.53 (1.89 units to win 1 unit)

#13(A) DORTMOND (GER) + SHAKHTAR (UKR) @ 1.25 (4 units to win 1 unit)

#14(A) VALLETTA (MAL) + DINAMO KIEV (UKR) @ 1.33 (3.03 units to win 1 unit)

#15(A) O. LJUBLJANA (SLO) + PARIS SG (FRA) @ 1.38 (2.63 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

#12(A) CHELSEA (ENG) + NYKOPINGS (SWE) @ 1.53 (1.89 units to win 1 unit) | #12(B) REAL MADRID (SPA) + VARDAR (MAC) @ 1.46 (6.28 units to win 2.89 units)

[KATCHASE]

Sundays Results: 4 wins (+4 units), 2 open

#10(A) BRISBANE (AUS) + ST. LIEGE (BEL) @ 1.46 (2.18 units to win 1 unit) | #10(B) GUANGZHOU R&F (CHINA) + WOLFSBURG II (GER REG N) @ 1.40 (7.95 units to win 3.18 units)

#11(A) ST. LIEGE (BEL) + GRANITAS K (LIT) @ 1.46 (2.18 units to win 1 unit)

#13(A) DORTMOND (GER) + SHAKHTAR (UKR) @ 1.25 (4 units to win 1 unit)

#14(A) VALLETTA (MAL) + DINAMO KIEV (UKR) @ 1.33 (3.03 units to win 1 unit)

#15(A) O. LJUBLJANA (SLO) + PARIS SG (FRA) @ 1.38 (2.63 units to win 1 unit)

#12(A) CHELSEA (ENG) + NYKOPINGS (SWE) @ 1.53 (1.89 units to win 1 unit) | #12(B) REAL MADRID (SPA) + VARDAR (MAC) @ 1.46 (6.28 units to win 2.89 units)

RECORD: 13-0 (+13 units)
________________
OPEN CHASE SERIES:
#12(A) CHELSEA (ENG) + NYKOPINGS (SWE) @ 1.53 (1.89 units to win 1 unit) | #12(B) REAL MADRID (SPA) + VARDAR (MAC) @ 1.46 (6.28 units to win 2.89 units)
#15(A) O. LJUBLJANA (SLO) + PARIS SG (FRA) @ 1.38 (2.63 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

Monday, August 19:

#12(A) CHELSEA (ENG) + NYKOPINGS (SWE) @ 1.53 (1.89 units to win 1 unit) | #12(B) REAL MADRID (SPA) + VARDAR (MAC) @ 1.46 (6.28 units to win 2.89 units) | #12(C) SPARTA PRAGUE U21 (CZE) + ATLANTIS (FIN) @ 1.46 (19.94 units to win 9.17 units)

[KATCHASE]

#15(A) O. LJUBLJANA (SLO) + PARIS SG (FRA) @ 1.38 (2.63 units to win 1 unit) | #15(B) GALATASARAY (TUR) + MANCHESTER CITY (ENG) @ 1.69 (5.26 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

Correction made to the win unit in the GALATASARAY/MANCHESTER CITY parlay...should be 5.26 units to win 3.63 units (not 5.26 units to win 1 unit):

#15(A) O. LJUBLJANA (SLO) + PARIS SG (FRA) @ 1.38 (2.63 units to win 1 unit) | #15(B) GALATASARAY (TUR) + MANCHESTER CITY (ENG) @ 1.69 (5.26 units to win 3.63 units)