Everyone wants to rant and rave about fixed matches on here, but they missed this one

**AussiePunter123** · 03-25-14, 10:18 AM

Under 2.5 market was hit hard pre match in the burgas game. 0-0 so far.

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 10:22 AM

turkey norway u17 seems fishy

**mishel2512** · 03-25-14, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by AussiePunter123

Under 2.5 market was hit hard pre match in the burgas game. 0-0 so far.

If you mean about Bulgarian

Chernomorets Burgas

-

Neftochimic Burgas

Then this match is not started yet?

**amtopm** · 03-25-14, 10:25 AM

anyone with any plays for me, im on the move and cant follow the thread

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by SarahPalin

1.25 is solid enough for then ty

lol somebody dropped 150k euros on West Indies @1.30 on BF hope it's not u

**AussiePunter123** · 03-25-14, 10:39 AM

I am a big cricket fan. T20 cricket is hit and miss, literally any team can beat any team, but West Indies are home and hosed.

**AussiePunter123** · 03-25-14, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by mishel2512

If you mean about Bulgarian

Chernomorets Burgas

-

Neftochimic Burgas

Then this match is not started yet?

Yes I met that match. I got it mixed up with Banga game. My mistake.

**AussiePunter123** · 03-25-14, 10:47 AM

Turkey win 3-2. Good spot.

**AussiePunter123** · 03-25-14, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by addictedto

Livebet Tbilisi - Guria in Georgia Over 2.5 Time to jump guys. Goal is coming in few minutes.

Good spot. Late goal had you sweating but

**Unsteeled101** · 03-25-14, 10:49 AM

Looking good today

. Hit 4 matches already.. Johor, turkey , Tbilisi and Petrojet.. Thanks all for the tips

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by addictedto

Livebet Tbilisi - Guria in Georgia Over 2.5 Time to jump guys. Goal is coming in few minutes.

you called 2 of these todays alone very nice

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by TheSportsAnalyst

lol somebody dropped 150k euros on West Indies @1.30 on BF hope it's not u

i wish i wouldnt random bet a sport i know nothing about that much hahah

**SydBarrett** · 03-25-14, 11:06 AM

What reasons is there for a bookmaker to close a market if they dont think its fixed? Just a random thought

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by SydBarrett

What reasons is there for a bookmaker to close a market if they dont think its fixed? Just a random thought

They usually close markets when they're seeing suspicious betting patterns pre-match or even in-play if they're receving too much money if compared to what it should be based on the situation.

Of course the fact that a bookie think it's fixed or suspicious doesn't mean that the match is actually fixed, they could just have wrong info on the teams etc.

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 11:13 AM

everyones posting gold today keep it up

**SydBarrett** · 03-25-14, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by TheSportsAnalyst

They usually close markets when they're seeing suspicious betting patterns pre-match or even in-play if they're receving too much money if compared to what it should be based on the situation.

Of course the fact that a bookie think it's fixed or suspicious doesn't mean that the match is actually fixed, they could just have wrong info on the teams etc.

Thanks for the answer, but i know THAT reason. My question is if there is any other reason than that to close a market. Is it always because of suspicious betting patterns? I think it happens too often to be the only reason.

**JackyLePaysan** · 03-25-14, 11:19 AM

Sweden U17 - Austria U17 : Austria went from 2.20 to 1.65 in 1 hour.
Start in 1 1/2 hour

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by SydBarrett

Thanks for the answer, but i know THAT reason. My question is if there is any other reason than that to close a market. Is it always because of suspicious betting patterns? I think it happens too often to be the only reason.

Suspicious or simply not in line with what they were expecting.

Let's say you are a bookie and offer a team to win a match at 2.00.
In the morning you're receveing 10k of bets on that team which is three times more than what you expected...
You'll probably lower the line... but what if you receive 20/30k more on that team?
Maybe you've wrong info and you decide to exit from the market before it's too late.

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 11:25 AM

whens this cricket game going to finish? next half hour or longer?

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by SarahPalin

whens this cricket game going to finish? next half hour or longer?

Yeah 30' if they won't eliminate two more players.

Anyway it's already a blowout, easyest money of the month for me.

**SydBarrett** · 03-25-14, 11:35 AM

Thanks TSA.
About the Sweden U17 match i have followed the odds movements as i am Swedish. In Sweden the government has bookmaking monopoly and the company Svenska Spel (Swedish Games) do not offer this match.
Its a very interesting drop on Austria.

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 11:36 AM

Not saying it's fixed, probably just a wrong line looking at the teams stats and recent form, but the U 156.5 (opening line) in the Pau-Orthez v Strasbourg was heavily wagered by a lot of decent guys during the day apparently.

Pinnacle had that line @1.85 and now for the same price they've only a very smaller 152.

Decent 9.4% drop on Pinny alone, worth a look.

**Unsteeled101** · 03-25-14, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by AussiePunter123

Yes I met that match. I got it mixed up with Banga game. My mistake.

If I remember correctly,there is huge drop for under 0.5..

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 11:47 AM

West Indies 171
Bangladesh 98

27.308.323 euros matched on the Home/Away only and it was all ok.
It's just about knowing what to look for...

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 11:49 AM

betway still has austria at close to evens

**onemoregoal** · 03-25-14, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by SydBarrett

Thanks TSA.
About the Sweden U17 match i have followed the odds movements as i am Swedish. In Sweden the government has bookmaking monopoly and the company Svenska Spel (Swedish Games) do not offer this match.
Its a very interesting drop on Austria.

why are degfores u21 so shit? sundsvall raping them. they are both in the same league for the seniors i think, cant be that much between them?

**SydBarrett** · 03-25-14, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by onemoregoal

why are degfores u21 so shit? sundsvall raping them. they are both in the same league for the seniors i think, cant be that much between them?

Haha yeah seniors both in second division atm but Sundsvall is a much bigger club with good youth academy

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 12:09 PM

Just a quick list on what I've kept on my list since this morning with the reasoning behind (because this is the purpose of the thread):

Johor to win @3.10 [suspicious league, very good drop, 188bet removed the 1X2 for a few hours]: 2-1 WIN

Austria U20 Handball +4.5 @1.95 [1X2 dropped since this morning, from 13.00 to an avg. of 5.4 now, probable wrong line, took AH because of value gone on the 1X2 atm of posting it]

Pau - Strasbourg FRA Basket U 156.5 @1.52 [probably wrong opening line judging by team stats, 19% drop and line moved by 4.5 on Pinnacle]

Still monitoring a couple of things though.

**onemoregoal** · 03-25-14, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by SydBarrett

Haha yeah seniors both in second division atm but Sundsvall is a much bigger club with good youth academy

16 shots on goal to 1, is quite something.
open a thread for when sweden starts....... i like finland too, im sad like that.

**SydBarrett** · 03-25-14, 12:16 PM

Guys i think the Sweden - Austria U17 game is played on a neutral ground in the Netherlands. Might explain the odds drop.
Edit: They play all matches in the group in Netherlands so shouldnt be a factor if everyone except me knew that ;P

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by SydBarrett

Guys i think the Sweden - Austria U17 game is played on a neutral ground in the Netherlands. Might explain the odds drop.

no it doesnt cause they always knew they were going to play there they dont pick a spot a couple hours before game

**SydBarrett** · 03-25-14, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by SarahPalin

no it doesnt cause they always knew they were going to play there they dont pick a spot a couple hours before game

Yeah i edited my last post. I thought the games were played with a home team and that match was an exception. Sorry.

**tipsadontlikehim** · 03-25-14, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by TheSportsAnalyst

LOL West Indies already 11 runs with no elimination.

thanks for this one man

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by tipsadontlikehim

thanks for this one man

You're wecolme dude. It was an easy one, no need to thanks.

Originally posted by TheSportsAnalyst

Just a quick list on what I've kept on my list since this morning with the reasoning behind (because this is the purpose of the thread):

Johor to win @3.10 [suspicious league, very good drop, 188bet removed the 1X2 for a few hours]: 2-1 WIN

Austria U20 Handball +4.5 @1.95 [1X2 dropped since this morning, from 13.00 to an avg. of 5.4 now, probable wrong line, took AH because of value gone on the 1X2 atm of posting it]

Pau - Strasbourg FRA Basket U 156.5 @1.52 [probably wrong opening line judging by team stats, 19% drop and line moved by 4.5 on Pinnacle]

Still monitoring a couple of things though.

Let's add another one.

Spezia v Trapani O 2.5 dropped from 2.31 to 2.00 on Pinny during the afternoon. A 13% drop in a not so easy league.
The total matched on Betfair for the OU is not so big but anyway at least 10 to 15 times higher than Serie B average.
Spezia last three matches: 0 over 3 under. Spezia is 2-6 on over 2.5 in their last 8 games.
Trapani last three matches: 0 over 3 under. Trapani is 1-7 on over 2.5 in their last 8 games.
Mmmmh.

So let's pull the tigger: Over 2.5 @2.10 in this match.

**tipsadontlikehim** · 03-25-14, 01:49 PM

sometimes this kind of drop are due to the weather, have you checked the weather ?