Everyone wants to rant and rave about fixed matches on here, but they missed this one

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by tipsadontlikehim

sometimes this kind of drop are due to the weather, have you checked the weather ?

Usually the bad weather influences the under, not the over.
Anyway I live not more than 150km away from La Spezia and if the weather is more or less the same than here it should be very cloudy, cold (7-8 degrees Celsius) with some rain.

**tipsadontlikehim** · 03-25-14, 02:04 PM

sorry misread i thought u played the under, ok good luck

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 02:11 PM

goal goal goal goal goal goaallllllasoooo

**JackyLePaysan** · 03-25-14, 02:15 PM

Juve Stabia v Padova - Match Odds

Betting on:	Juve Stabia
Total matched on this event:	€69,675
Betting summary - Volume:	€52,792
Last price matched:	2.36

Serie B in Italy, starts in 13 minutes.

Falkirk v Dumbarton - Match Odds

Betting on:	Dumbarton
Total matched on this event:	€10,504
Betting summary - Volume:	€6,143
Last price matched:	3.65

High betting volume for Dumbarton, already at 2.86 at SBOBET

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 02:18 PM

i want to tail that juve stabia but theres been like 6/6 winners today something has to lose haha

**JackyLePaysan** · 03-25-14, 02:22 PM

And also

Livingston v Alloa - Match Odds

Betting on:	Livingston
Total matched on this event:	€36,491
Betting summary - Volume:	€32,055
Last price matched:	1.72

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 02:24 PM

Another that I don't get is why Oxford City is dropping so big.
Considering how small the market is could be anything but it seems non-sense looking at the table.

They're still at 3.20 at Coral.

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 02:26 PM

Completely missed the under in the french game.

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 02:36 PM

that livingston bet has my attention

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by JackyLePaysan

Sweden U17 - Austria U17 : Austria went from 2.20 to 1.65 in 1 hour.
Start in 1 1/2 hour

quick shout out to this hero. ty ty and sportsanalyst for talking me into throwing that cricket game into every parlay

**Martinr** · 03-25-14, 02:49 PM

Could only get a max of $596 on Dumbarton at +250 when I'm pretty sure the usual max is $1090 on this league.
I thought Scottish football was pretty clean. Anyone know different?

**JackyLePaysan** · 03-25-14, 03:03 PM

Goal for Juve Stabia !

**JackyLePaysan** · 03-25-14, 03:07 PM

Goal for Livingston !

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 03:08 PM

and livingston

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 03:08 PM

and for Trapani too after a missed penalty.

**JackyLePaysan** · 03-25-14, 03:13 PM

But Falkirk scores against Dumbarton !

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 03:25 PM

so many heros today legit awesome job

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 03:29 PM

Krems - Austria 94 29-26 FT

Once again good run for the money for who took it at 13.00 (great chances to edged out since price was 4.30 at the start).
Anyway the +4.5 handicap @1.95 hold and I'm happy enough.

**Gaze73** · 03-25-14, 03:37 PM

Nice pick TSA, tailed. Didn't look good after HT, but win is a win.

**JackyLePaysan** · 03-25-14, 03:52 PM

Dumbarton scores ! 1-1 !
Edit : goal cancelled... still 1-0

**target785** · 03-25-14, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by JackyLePaysan

Dumbarton scores ! 1-1 !

Score mobile still shows it 1-0, did they take the goal away?

**TheSportsAnalyst** · 03-25-14, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by TheSportsAnalyst

You're wecolme dude. It was an easy one, no need to thanks.

Let's add another one.

Spezia v Trapani O 2.5 dropped from 2.31 to 2.00 on Pinny during the afternoon. A 13% drop in a not so easy league.
The total matched on Betfair for the OU is not so big but anyway at least 10 to 15 times higher than Serie B average.
Spezia last three matches: 0 over 3 under. Spezia is 2-6 on over 2.5 in their last 8 games.
Trapani last three matches: 0 over 3 under. Trapani is 1-7 on over 2.5 in their last 8 games.
Mmmmh.

So let's pull the tigger: Over 2.5 @2.10 in this match.

Nope. 0-1
I thought this was really strange, especially because continued to drop down to 1.90/1.85 in places.
Weird Serie B night though, just one over 2.5 out of almost a dozen of matches.

Well, a profitable day overall for me on these kind of bets but mainly thanks to Johor solid outcome but definitely still some work to do.

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by JackyLePaysan

And also

Livingston v Alloa - Match Odds

Betting on:	Livingston
Total matched on this event:	€36,491
Betting summary - Volume:	€32,055
Last price matched:	1.72

thank you ive never seen so many heros in a day best day in a while keep it up guys

**JackyLePaysan** · 03-25-14, 04:41 PM

Ok, so I guess the lesson of the day is : odds < 2 are more reliable because they show the bookies are "afraid" of the money coming in.
Plus, you can't win every single bet !

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by JackyLePaysan

Ok, so I guess the lesson of the day is : odds < 2 are more reliable because they show the bookies are "afraid" of the money coming in.
Plus, you can't win every single bet !

i appreciate all the posts so we can investigate the games further

**hasmetttbeyazzz** · 03-25-14, 04:49 PM

hi all
I noticed this topic now and I want also contribute

I wonder that what can you say about winning rate in long term
is yield is positive even if taking dropped odds?
thanks...

**addictedto** · 03-25-14, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by addictedto

Histon - Gloucester - Away win @2.00 (this one is dropping all the way from 2.30 - 2.40). The asian bookies moved the asian handicap too.

Originally posted by addictedto

Look at Turkey U17 -Norway U17 Home Win @1.83 - this is some real shit LOL

Originally posted by addictedto

80th minute in play in Hong Kong - South China - Pegasus 2:2
Not normal that the draw is priced @1.80 so late in the game.
Match Odds- Matched:EUR 123,841
I mean I definitely expect another goal here.

Originally posted by addictedto

Livebet Tbilisi - Guria in Georgia Over 2.5 Time to jump guys. Goal is coming in few minutes.

Well, I call it 4 winners today.
4-0 Enjoy.

**AussiePunter123** · 03-25-14, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by AussiePunter123

Offical Lean

Livingston v Alloa (9% drop head to head odds for Livingston)

I highly doubt this match is fixed, but Livingston have a good record against Alloa and they are the home team. It is the Scottish Championship League, so it is not a obscure league where the bookies have made a mistake with the opening odds. Bet 365 have Livingston at 1.70 odd, in from 2.00.

Livingston have won 4 out of the last 5 matches between these two clubs. Also, 6 out of 7 games have cleared 2.5 goals in total.

Leans

Livingston @ 1.73 (Bet 365) (Scotish Championship)
Total Goals O2.5 @ 1.91 (Sporting bet)

BOL to all and sex to all.

Just missed both leans with the final score being 2-0

**AussiePunter123** · 03-25-14, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by AussiePunter123

Hope you guys took my leans!!!

BOOM BABY!!!

Official Plays Record since 19th March

11 wins
3 losses
4 pushes

+6.13 units

Leans Record (since 24th March)

3 wins
1 losses
0 pushes

+1.23 units

Updated record.

BOL and sex to all.

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 05:10 PM

any late game love leans? on the copa libertadores?

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 05:11 PM

some santos straght and zamora draw no bet?

**JackyLePaysan** · 03-25-14, 05:18 PM

Tigres - Veracruz : odds dropping all day on Tigres !
Bet on Tigres @1,4

**JackyLePaysan** · 03-25-14, 05:21 PM

Santos Laguna seems like a good idea too !

Santos Laguna v Penarol - Match Odds

Betting on:	Santos Laguna
Total matched on this event:	€9,881
Betting summary - Volume:	€8,438
Last price matched:	1.44

**SarahPalin** · 03-25-14, 05:24 PM

no money bet on tigres yet odds drop seem weird why they dropping?

**SydBarrett** · 03-25-14, 05:36 PM

Both teams are very poor in the league. Veracruz last with only 6 goals scored in 12 matches. Tigres not much better but in great form atm. I think the odds are normal now, no idea why it was that high before.
This is a cup match though.