Everyone wants to rant and rave about fixed matches on here, but they missed this one

**SarahPalin** · 03-24-14, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by SydBarrett

In this thread i have seen only two fixed matches. The Latvian and the Greece match. This Scotland U17 match is the closest i seen to those games. Any reason you think its not fixed?

fixed

**SarahPalin** · 03-24-14, 03:35 PM

setubal vs estoril

Total matched on this event:$495,772
Betting summary - Volume:$366,818

their down 1-0 right now

**SarahPalin** · 03-24-14, 03:42 PM

Total matched on this event:$1,185,934
Betting summary - Volume:$1,006,928

i hate looking in main leagues but damn thats alot of money on sociedad

**SydBarrett** · 03-24-14, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by amtopm

It is best not always think "fix" when you see odds dropped like that, i used to think that too but theres alot more to it, stick around and we'l all crack this together

I almost never think its fixed. As i said in my opinion its only been 2 clear fixes in this thread. I followed this game closely and it was fishy.

**amtopm** · 03-24-14, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by SarahPalin

setubal vs estoril

Total matched on this event:$495,772
Betting summary - Volume:$366,818

their down 1-0 right now

There quite big at 10/1 to win now at half time seeing as they were favorites going into it.

EDIT - only after seeing the red card there now.

**addictedto** · 03-24-14, 04:10 PM

Hey guys, sorry for the Italian low league game, but had to take it given the odds dropping and the last 5 games being draws. Good about this thread is that we can also see where we fail. It seems there are bluffs on some markets to attract money from people like us who are all obsessed by the idea of fixed matches

so from now on, in order to get the success rate higher, we need somehow to exclude these bluffs. I think then we will kill them for real. Dunno what you think about it.

**addictedto** · 03-24-14, 04:11 PM

About the thread name, someone more experienced to tell how we can change it, with a request to mods maybe? You guys wanna vote for a new thread name?

**amtopm** · 03-24-14, 04:16 PM

i recommend the name '' I want more fixes ''

**addictedto** · 03-24-14, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by amtopm

i recommend the name '' I want more fixes ''

Emblematic!

**amtopm** · 03-24-14, 04:22 PM

Im up for what ever. This page is easily accessible from google when you type in 'fixed matches'' - its on the first or second page. We either keep the title with those words in - which will attract more new-comers like myself. or change the title and go super secret underground GAZE STYLE!!

**amtopm** · 03-24-14, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by addictedto

Hey guys, sorry for the Italian low league game, but had to take it given the odds dropping and the last 5 games being draws. Good about this thread is that we can also see where we fail. It seems there are bluffs on some markets to attract money from people like us who are all obsessed by the idea of fixed matches

so from now on, in order to get the success rate higher, we need somehow to exclude these bluffs. I think then we will kill them for real. Dunno what you think about it.

Dont be saying sorry! We are learning!

**amtopm** · 03-24-14, 04:32 PM

Im seeing a drop in this match

18% for the away team (Odds Portal) - who are considered favorites at the minute. 2.30 to 1.70

From this info, would you be inclined to recommend a DNB for Newells ?

Its what I am considering at this moment, I ask just out of curiosity to see am I on the right track on the selection process.

Eagerly await what you guys think.

**SydBarrett** · 03-24-14, 04:44 PM

After reading the link Aussie shared earlier today i read some more about Sportsradar. As we saw in the video they use this programme called Fraud Detection System which clearly shows, In Play, when a match supposedly is fixed.
Do you think that programme is possible to get? It would obviously be gold for us

https://security.sportradar.com/fraud-detection-system

**MustWinPlease** · 03-24-14, 04:51 PM

Newells the play?

**amtopm** · 03-24-14, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by MustWinPlease

Newells the play?

Not sure yet, i am waiting to see what the other members think first.

**addictedto** · 03-24-14, 05:07 PM

Some great video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pv-voQmukg

**SarahPalin** · 03-24-14, 05:20 PM

ya good idea id suggest a name change someone without fixed in it to attract less people

**SydBarrett** · 03-24-14, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by addictedto

Some great video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pv-voQmukg

Yeah thats the video Aussie linked earlier today. Imagine if we had access to the programme he shows in the video...

**amtopm** · 03-24-14, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by SarahPalin

ya good idea id suggest a name change someone without fixed in it to attract less people

its not that we should deter newcommers, i just worry people will come along posting scam matches and putting up poo nonsense clogging up valuble space.

**SydBarrett** · 03-24-14, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by amtopm

its not that we should deter newcommers, i just worry people will come along posting scam matches and putting up poo nonsense clogging up valuble space.

More people = More money on "our team" = lower odds = less money to us.

Now that i joined its time to go underground

**SarahPalin** · 03-24-14, 06:12 PM

ya change thread dont want cops coming in here

**onemoregoal** · 03-24-14, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by SarahPalin

ya change thread dont want cops coming in here

**AussiePunter123** · 03-24-14, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by AussiePunter123

A couple of leans for you guys if you want.

Cartagena v Jaguares (Columbia)

This game has been suspended on betfair.
Cartagena has won 1 out of the last 5 games against Jaguares (with the 1 win at home) with 2 draws and 2 losses.
Some decent odd movement towards Cartagena, but I can't back them with 1 win out of 5. Perhaps a DNB for those feeling lucky?

Lean 1: Back Cartagena DNB (1.50)

Lean 2: Over 2.5 goals @ $2.00 (bet 365).

4 out of the 5 games have cleared the 2.5 goal line, including the last 3 between these clubs.

These are not based on any clear line movements or money on betfair, so they won't count towards my record.

These are just leans for those looking to pass the time. Personally, i think lean 2 is great value.

BOL to all and sex to all.

Hope you guys took my leans!!!

BOOM BABY!!!

Official Plays Record since 19th March

11 wins
3 losses
4 pushes

+6.13 units

Leans Record (since 24th March)

2 wins
0 losses
0 pushes

+1.50 units

**SarahPalin** · 03-24-14, 06:52 PM

darn howd i miss that post

**AussiePunter123** · 03-24-14, 06:56 PM

Offical Lean

Livingston v Alloa (9% drop head to head odds for Livingston)

I highly doubt this match is fixed, but Livingston have a good record against Alloa and they are the home team. It is the Scottish Championship League, so it is not a obscure league where the bookies have made a mistake with the opening odds. Bet 365 have Livingston at 1.70 odd, in from 2.00.

Livingston have won 4 out of the last 5 matches between these two clubs. Also, 6 out of 7 games have cleared 2.5 goals in total.

Leans

Livingston @ 1.73 (Bet 365) (Scotish Championship)
Total Goals O2.5 @ 1.91 (Sporting bet)

BOL to all and sex to all.

**AussiePunter123** · 03-24-14, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by SarahPalin

darn howd i miss that post

I didn't play it mate, was put off by the fact the home team had won 1 out of the last 5 head to head. All the bookies kept shortening their odds, so perhaps they knew more than we did.

Still, betting is about the process, ticking off each box before making a play.

**AussiePunter123** · 03-24-14, 07:05 PM

Some odd prices in Cortulua v America De Cali.

Away team last won head to head, away from home, in 2010. In fact, they have won only 1 away game between the 2 clubs in about 12 games.

Yet, they are clear favourites at 2.00 (1x2) and 1.50 (DNB). Conversely, the home team started at 2.60 odd (1x) but keep blowing out into the mid 3.00 area.

NO official play or lean. Just a heads up to see how this one pans out, for the learning experience.

**amtopm** · 03-24-14, 07:44 PM

Whens your next play aussie?

What bullet points would you have laid out that needs ticking off? Is it what you posted up yesterday mate

**amtopm** · 03-24-14, 07:45 PM

Btw the only person who can edit the thread title is the person who started it.

**tipsadontlikehim** · 03-24-14, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by amtopm

Btw the only person who can edit the thread title is the person who started it.

unless you ask the mods
(is there any mods here?)

**AussiePunter123** · 03-24-14, 08:39 PM

Originally posted by amtopm

Whens your next play aussie?

What bullet points would you have laid out that needs ticking off? Is it what you posted up yesterday mate

Obviously, every drop in odds is not a fixed match.

So, in that case, you want form behind your pics. IF the odds are dropping, it might be due to late team change, injury to a key player, whatever. So you want the team you are backing (home team) to have a good head to head record against the team they are playing.

**swordsandtequila** · 03-24-14, 09:14 PM

Who cares about the thread title. Most threads here devolve into other nonsense anyway. Just keep on keeping on.

**AussiePunter123** · 03-24-14, 09:16 PM

I was impressed with that user who posted the U17 Scottish game. Wish I had a bit of that!

**AussiePunter123** · 03-24-14, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by AussiePunter123

Some odd prices in Cortulua v America De Cali.

Away team last won head to head, away from home, in 2010. In fact, they have won only 1 away game between the 2 clubs in about 12 games.

Yet, they are clear favourites at 2.00 (1x2) and 1.50 (DNB). Conversely, the home team started at 2.60 odd (1x) but keep blowing out into the mid 3.00 area.

NO official play or lean. Just a heads up to see how this one pans out, for the learning experience.

For those following this game, the away team is leading 1-2 midway through the second half.

**Unsteeled101** · 03-24-14, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by AussiePunter123

Offical Lean

Livingston v Alloa (9% drop head to head odds for Livingston)

I highly doubt this match is fixed, but Livingston have a good record against Alloa and they are the home team. It is the Scottish Championship League, so it is not a obscure league where the bookies have made a mistake with the opening odds. Bet 365 have Livingston at 1.70 odd, in from 2.00.

Livingston have won 4 out of the last 5 matches between these two clubs. Also, 6 out of 7 games have cleared 2.5 goals in total.

Leans

Livingston @ 1.73 (Bet 365) (Scotish Championship)
Total Goals O2.5 @ 1.91 (Sporting bet)

BOL to all and sex to all.

Tailing