Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**turtledoves** · 08-17-20, 12:01 PM

**KVB** · 08-17-20, 01:08 PM

Books gave away a little secret last night with Arizona, it's ok because the market has short memory.

But now they put Zona in a situation where those who won last night, including those of us buying them LIVE when they were down 4-2 in the 8th, those players would be gobbling up Zona right now.

If they are adjusting their roll, they can have a near full understanding of just how it all works and come out a loser.

Remember, you can't break even going up and down the same percentage each day...+10%, -10%....+5%, -5%, etc. That's a losing proposition no matter what order you place the wins and losses.

If Zona triggers in the Contrarian Fund, I'll buy it, it's very attractive. But it also feels slimy and dirty.

Price might get expensive keeping us out. I get the feeling any movement toward Zona will be mitigated until closer to game time, if so it's likely an attempt to bring in the later, higher info, buyers.

**KVB** · 08-17-20, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

...

Crook For Life · Mr. PookieTha Rippla℗ 1999 Mr. PookieReleased on: 1999-01-01

Comments...

Sounds like this was made in 2020. Way ahead of his time.

Reply...

It's because these 2020 producers get their style from this era

**KVB** · 08-17-20, 01:19 PM

I've read some interesting things on the use of machine learning in predicting mlb winners.

It was legit published study and very interesting.

It might be getting time to go for advanced degrees in math, or at least gain the knowledge of it. Not sure how to align myself with real machine learning algos though.

We sure as hell can't compete with them.

Sigh.

**KVB** · 08-17-20, 01:25 PM

One take away, I don't work hard enough.

I need to get back to focusing on the individual issues at hand and use less time with the broader picture.

Yet still manage both.

Remember, each issue (game) is it's own issue but fits into a larger mechanic of the markets.

Also, we aren't at a total loss when competing with basically AI algos.

They might be able to predict the teams win/loss at better than 60%, but did they beat the odds?

That's a problem to tackle as well.

"Tell you where the Four Winds dwell.
In Franklin's tower there hangs a bell.
One watch by night, one watch by day.
If you get confused listen to the music play."

**KVB** · 08-17-20, 01:50 PM

I bought some extra Apple a few days ago in the trading/betting account.

Gonna get in on that split.

**turtledoves** · 08-17-20, 03:12 PM

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**KVB** · 08-17-20, 04:03 PM

Interesting.

As far as under the hood, I wasn't talking college level math. I was talking a bit past that. I had a decent dose in college as I entered with high school calculus under my belt.

But probabalilities and stats were the college thing for sure. So was psychology.

But I'm thinking more advanced degrees. There are some free courses out there from the Ivy league.

I was thinking we have to go a step further but maybe not.

**KVB** · 08-17-20, 04:05 PM

Need to head to PT, probably going to have to bet while there.

At least it's my ankle this time, and I'm not Tyson.

Although I did spend 5.5 hours on the operating table and had to give blood for myself 2 for several weeks in advance for that surgery for a broken back.

**KVB** · 08-17-20, 04:15 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

953	17-Aug	BOS +146
959		DET +151
961		KC +151
970		ARI -105

Detroit and Arizona are backbone plays here.

**KVB** · 08-17-20, 04:21 PM

The KVB NBA ATS/ML Fund picked up...

757 DAL +6.5 (-106)

**turtledoves** · 08-17-20, 05:32 PM

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**Ian** · 08-17-20, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Need to head to PT, probably going to have to bet while there.

At least it's my ankle this time, and I'm not Tyson.

Although I did spend 5.5 hours on the operating table and had to give blood for myself 2 for several weeks in advance for that surgery for a broken back.

When I first read "PT" I thought you were talking about players talk, lol. Good luck with PT... it did wonders for me when I ruptured a disc. What happened to you?

**gauchojake** · 08-17-20, 07:43 PM

**KVB** · 08-17-20, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by Ian

When I first read "PT" I thought you were talking about players talk, lol. Good luck with PT... it did wonders for me when I ruptured a disc. What happened to you?

Sprained ankle on Feb 10th. Pretty bad.

Third round of PT after taking the last month off (back office errors, ugh.)

Still ice every day, MRI on its way, but I've come along way that's for sure.

Fukked it up good.

I got good at this though...

**KVB** · 08-17-20, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

...Trying to challenge the notion that advanced math knowledge is needed to pursue building ML algos.

https://pastebin.com/raw/vju1ABNU

Excellent stuff Doves, you learned me a bit here on just what machine learning involves.

I need to think about some of this stuff, and I need to work harder.

Found this...

https://www.coursera.org/learn/machine-learning?action=enroll

I also found this...

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/HelplessFickleCollardlizard' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='404'></iframe>

**Ian** · 08-18-20, 04:48 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Sprained ankle on Feb 10th. Pretty bad.

Third round of PT after taking the last month off (back office errors, ugh.)

Still ice every day, MRI on its way, but I've come along way that's for sure.

Fukked it up good.

I got good at this though...

That's an intense sprained ankle. GL

**turtledoves** · 08-18-20, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Excellent stuff Doves, you learned me a bit here on just what machine learning involves.

I need to think about some of this stuff, and I need to work harder.

Found this...

https://www.coursera.org/learn/machine-learning?action=enroll

I also found this...

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/HelplessFickleCollardlizard' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='404'></iframe>

https://tinyurl.com/y3c5h28y

Kaggle: Your Machine Learning and Data Science Community

https://www.kaggle.com/

Kaggle is the world’s largest data science community with powerful tools and resources to help you achieve your data science goals.

**KVB** · 08-18-20, 01:37 PM

Yeah I saw some of those reviews shunning how he brushed over the math and also suggesting the neural network course.

When I was at UCLA we were on a little bit of the cutting edge stuff like this in the psychology dept.

We were playing with neural networks and models that seem to be the basis for what looks like machine learning today.

It's actually amazing the number of brushes I had in college with the early stages of so many modern things, including early VR and these neural networks.

I only went so deep into some of those subjects.

Pretty cool actually.

What a terrible mistake this guy made...

**KVB** · 08-18-20, 01:43 PM

I need to get my shit together.

I just don't want to send you a bunch of oversimplified shit that makes no sense when you haven't in action, in the context needed.

I think we can use machine learning to help break through the inadequacies of static stats based regressions.

I almost want to just pull out the old spiral notebooks, explaing what is where and why, including the color codings and highlights, then work from the ground up to make sense of it all in a computer.

That might be the best way to work with it without completely defining a goal other than representing the notebook pages in a updatable computer interface.

Then we let the season run to fulfill what the pages predict.

Speaking of typos...

**KVB** · 08-18-20, 04:10 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

908	18-Aug	ARI +141
914		PIT +166
922		BOS +121
925		MIL +145
927		DET +154

Zona, PIT, and BOS are the backbone plays here.

**KVB** · 08-18-20, 04:13 PM

The KVB NBA ATS/ML Fund has picked up...

772

18-Aug

HOU -1 (-102)

Moneyline a good buy too at these levels.

**turtledoves** · 08-18-20, 05:08 PM

32-core processor, 64 threads, gonna get it soon

**KVB** · 08-18-20, 05:12 PM

Holy shit.

"Render time irrelevant"

Just wow. Can't wait until they make a quantum chip cooled and everything about that size...lol.

Pricey too. Crazy what they have these days.

**KVB** · 08-18-20, 05:14 PM

I remember doubling the 2 MB of RAM to get 4 MB of RAM.

That was huge when we did it.

**turtledoves** · 08-18-20, 05:28 PM

there's a cheaper 16 core processor, but it doesn't carry the cool threadripper name. i wanna get ripped. my applications are built for parallelization and will be able to harness the full power of the extra cores. maybe i'll get the 24 core threadripper

https://www.amazon.com/AMD-Ryzen-Threadripper-3960X-48-Thread/dp/B0815JGCXP

https://www.amazon.com/AMD-Ryzen-3950X-32-Thread-Processor/dp/B07ZTYKLZW

**KVB** · 08-18-20, 05:42 PM

Jeeeeesus.

Showing my son. He wants to open the OMEN and install the chip.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-18-20, 06:16 PM

**KVB** · 08-18-20, 06:24 PM

reported

**KVB** · 08-18-20, 07:07 PM

Zona, Pit, Bos, all three backbone plays take the early lead.

**turtledoves** · 08-19-20, 11:49 AM

**turtledoves** · 08-19-20, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Jeeeeesus.

Showing my son. He wants to open the OMEN and install the chip.

Motherboard, cpu, and RAM all need to be compatible

you're going to have to build an entire new PC from scratch

**KVB** · 08-19-20, 12:19 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

962	19-Aug	BOS +160
970		CHC +113

Boston is the backbone play here and I do have some of these at worse numbers but was a little late to posting and the latest buys were at the better, available numbers above.

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/FailingTornHerring' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='404'></iframe>

**Auto Donk** · 08-19-20, 03:31 PM

**KVB** · 08-19-20, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

Motherboard, cpu, and RAM all need to be compatible

you're going to have to build an entire new PC from scratch

One of the reasons I laughed.

I kind of knew we would blow something up, lol, when it says it comes without the cooler.

Now that's an ass...