Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-10-19, 12:15 AM

Enjoyed it to , but lol at the overrated so called phenom

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 02-10-19, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

Lol , most unimpressive win ever from a so called phenom
let a old man put his hands completely down 3 times and Nigerian fukk could barely connect

And he smiled after.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 02-10-19, 12:16 AM

Really?

Two 30-27’s?

Come on

**Da Manster!** · 02-10-19, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

youbknow it

I took a 2 year hiatus from MLB...don't ask me why...I don't know...I've always crushed totals...hell, it's my bread and butter besides football...but I'm definitely betting some diamond action this year!...

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-10-19, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Really?

Two 30-27’s?

Come on

No shit .......

woulda been scared shitless if I woulda bet the young air bender in this one

poor performance, it enjoyed from a fan perspective

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-10-19, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

I took a 2 year hiatus from MLB...don't ask me why...I don't know...I've always crushed totals...hell, it's my bread and butter besides football...but I'm definitely betting some diamond action this year!...

baseball is fun , can win some nice loot on some doggies

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-10-19, 01:32 AM

its gonna take college athletes to stop the mini streak

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 02-10-19, 02:01 AM

Anybody getting laid tonight?

I am.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 02-10-19, 02:09 AM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

It’s simple really
bad line
Santa Barbara is elite at home
UC Davis sucks on the road
Santa Barbara defense been sick lately
the like teams they have faced this year Santa Barbara destroyed
and UC Davis lost to .

Take Santa Barbara and the -8

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

Bump so Dags post doesn’t hide yet another free winner given out to you silly shitdikks

Nice bump!

BUMP

Belly Bump

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-10-19, 02:23 AM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Anybody getting laid tonight?

I am.

Got laid , but it was meh
we been bangin it ok much lately , I think

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-10-19, 02:24 AM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Nice bump!

BUMP

Belly Bump

cant count some stupid midnight college athlete scrub bet
I still have posted 80 percent winners in this thread
gonna go make a grape crush ice cream

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 02-10-19, 02:44 AM

80% winners

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-10-19, 02:56 AM

Bro ,it’s around there

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-10-19, 02:57 AM

Don’t do this Dags , this college hoops play doesn’t count

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-10-19, 02:58 AM

Play was me trying to be as cocky as humanly possible ......

<div style='position:relative; padding-bottom:calc(56.25% + 44px)'><iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/RadiantTimelyInexpectatumpleco' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='100%' height='100%' style='position:absolute;top:0;left:0;' allowfullscreen></iframe></div>

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-10-19, 03:01 AM

Nothing more than an attempt at unprecedented cockiness

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/BraveHeartfeltFrog' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='684'></iframe>

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 02-10-19, 11:40 AM

It’s only 2 months away, boys.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 02-10-19, 01:12 PM

Doughnuts

**smokenjoke** · 02-11-19, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Nice bump!

BUMP

Belly Bump

...

**turtledoves** · 02-11-19, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Different answers for different strategies, I suppose. But how you can you judge the book's inaccuracy if you don't have an idea of what could be accurate?

It's also how you look at it. Really, it's the inaccuracy of the marketplace that gets exposed and exploited. The bookmaker gets caught in the middle with his own agenda.

The market itself generates stats, results are stats, volume and percentage information are stats. What is produced on the court are stats. Together they make a mountain of info, some relevant, some not.

Those plays I make early, not that subset of Visiting Value or ATS/ML, but some Visiting Value and the Tech Fund, are using traditional stats to beat the market.

But the plays made later, like ATS/ML add that other information to get a decision.

ATS/ML Fund has been pretty much pushing the closer (crude comparison and otherwise) since posting in 2019, and it's on a losing trend...

What is inaccurate? For tonight's game it is hard to judge. But over a larger sample, just compute the difference of results to lines. What to deduce from this though. Maybe tonight is inaccurate but methods of forming line has proven more accurate over larger sample so pregame the prediction is shown to be most accurate compared to other methods. You go traditional stats then add "other information" filters. What about other information THEN add traditional stats to filter. Many ways to skin a horse

**turtledoves** · 02-11-19, 01:31 PM

time to put on my thinking cap

**KVB** · 02-11-19, 01:47 PM

Left Saturday for the hills, made a shitload of plays before and did not post them. Went 12-5-1 in Hoops and 4-0 in NBA.

None of it posted..

If I'm going to post, I want to post them all.. Kind of sucks when I miss some.

Doves, the "other information" is specifically volume and percentage information, along with tracking of certain typed of movement from specific books (is it steam, RLM, or just a play from a book with known sharp players?)

These moves are tracked and so are the results of those moves.

All of the above "other information" comes later, it's best to have the in play game type stats down first.

That's why some plays are made at the open and others await volume and trading info.

We can try to predict the trading info, you see me assume line movements sometimes. The problem with the plays that come with this added info is that lines move fast once thresholds are reached. That's why I get tired of posting those plays, lines move before I even get the post out....mush faster than football.

Clearly I'm not the only one doing this.

**KVB** · 02-11-19, 01:53 PM

For example, the NBA Contrarian Fund has picked up...

558

11-Feb

BRK/TOR UNDER 227 (-105)

But this line has already moved to 226.5 (I bought some there too) and I see 226 all over now.

**KVB** · 02-11-19, 01:58 PM

Not sure if I posted it, but when Cantlay withdrew last week I picked Mickelson to win at 22-1.

It paid.

I actually has a huge weekend this weekend and I wasn't even home.

**KVB** · 02-11-19, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by KVB

The KVB NCAAB Visiting Value Fund will track NCAA Basketball spread plays generated by handicapping games with a stacking percentages forecast and will use market analysis and situational factors that includes regressions to adjust the forecast and exploit inefficiencies in the market that arise from betting behavior.

All plays will be visiting teams and the vast majority of the plays will be underdogs. Like the NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund, this Fund also exploits the inherent home and favorite public bias that can stretch a market.

Added to that bias is the swaying of the market over time based on the past performance of the teams. Whether teams win or lose has one impact; and whether they cover or not has another impact. Some of the unsophisticated market is comprised of bettors that bet all the time; they know who hurt them and who hasn’t. Sometimes a piece of the market is comprised of public bettors who don’t bet often and during a big game or key time just bet on or against a team with no knowledge of how that team has performed in the betting marketplace.

This Fund will attempt to aggregate multiple building perceptions in the market that are in line, eventually result in swaying a line to trigger a buy that is consistent with the natural give and take of the markets.

Because of this relation to the natural give and take of the markets, we are dealing with an adjustment to the forecast that acts as a market function and that has consistently seen a more than 59% win rate and better than 15% ROI over nearly 1000 plays and a dozen seasons

So I can try to predict what the market will show.

For example, lines haven't come out for tomorrow, we need to see the lines to have any idea if a play will trigger at the open.

I see no potentials for tomorrow, it's hard to say what the openers will be.

But, on 2-13, in two days, I have an idea for two games. Just like last week, looking two day ahead, I am watching these two...

801		13-Feb	RICHMOND
845			BOISE ST

These are visiting value fund plays that can be made if the opener is conducive. They can be made right away.

The other subset of plays requires betting info and I have to decided when to pull the trigger. When thresholds are reached I do it, and it is sort of cut and dry, as long as we get volume on the game and I get my reports.

For those two plays above, the only "other added info" I can use has to do with past ATS and betting results...

Originally posted by KVB

...Added to that bias is the swaying of the market over time based on the past performance of the teams. Whether teams win or lose has one impact; and whether they cover or not has another impact. Some of the unsophisticated market is comprised of bettors that bet all the time; they know who hurt them and who hasn’t. Sometimes a piece of the market is comprised of public bettors who don’t bet often and during a big game or key time just bet on or against a team with no knowledge of how that team has performed in the betting marketplace...

I've learned that converting some of this ATS info into percentage results can help incorporate it into the forecast. That's a tip Sharon might pull from a post, if she saw it.

But she asked to be tied up this morning...

**KVB** · 02-11-19, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

Got laid , but it was meh
we been bangin it ok much lately , I think

Remember, variety is the spice of life.

I know what you need...

**KVB** · 02-11-19, 02:22 PM

Win or lose, we're drinking champagne tonight...

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-11-19, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Win or lose, we're drinking champagne tonight...

**Auto Donk** · 02-11-19, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by KVB

So I can try to predict what the market will show.

For example, lines haven't come out for tomorrow, we need to see the lines to have any idea if a play will trigger at the open.

I see no potentials for tomorrow, it's hard to say what the openers will be.

But, on 2-13, in two days, I have an idea for two games. Just like last week, looking two day ahead, I am watching these two...

801		13-Feb	RICHMOND
845			BOISE ST

These are visiting value fund plays that can be made if the opener is conducive. They can be made right away.

The other subset of plays requires betting info and I have to decided when to pull the trigger. When thresholds are reached I do it, and it is sort of cut and dry, as long as we get volume on the game and I get my reports.

For those two plays above, the only "other added info" I can use has to do with past ATS and betting results...

I've learned that converting some of this ATS info into percentage results can help incorporate it into the forecast. That's a tip Sharon might pull from a post, if she saw it.

But she asked to be tied up this morning...

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-11-19, 03:22 PM

play some good music fellas

**KVB** · 02-11-19, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

This guy ordered 40 lbs of Lucky Charms from Amazon.

WE know why he bought it.

Poor fella is going to be disappointed when he finds out it is Fruit Loops that he was supposed to order.

I think he know's exactly what he did.

You see, Lucky Charms are, well, for the opposite of Donkland...

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 02-11-19, 03:25 PM

you know, the kind that gets me dancing

like last time we partied by the pool ....

Just a moment...

http://i.4cdn.org/gif/1549846299752.webm

**KVB** · 02-11-19, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

you know, the kind that gets me dancing

like last time we partied by the pool ....

http://i.4cdn.org/gif/1549846299752.webm

Ok, just one, but then I have shit do. I'll be back later.

**Auto Donk** · 02-11-19, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

This guy ordered 40 lbs of Lucky Charms from Amazon.

WE know why he bought it.

Poor fella is going to be disappointed when he finds out it is Fruit Loops that he was supposed to order.

**Auto Donk** · 02-11-19, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

you know, the kind that gets me dancing

like last time we partied by the pool ....

http://i.4cdn.org/gif/1549846299752.webm

time to party IN the pool.........