Grapes found the song I wasted far too much time looking for a while back! I like the hook.
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The sharp forecast has Cleveland beating Boston 118-102. The public gauge shows Boston winning 111-110.
There a few differences between this game and the game 1. While the Total offered is a little closer to the numbers than in the past, other calculations show the money seems less split and the books are back to taking bets on the Over.
Once again the public gauge has Boston winning. It failed the first time and in this world of give and take it would not surprise me at all to see Boston win this game. This time however, we do not see heavy metrics pointing to an underdog or upset. The indications that the forecast will fail in this series are still there.
The last game I suggested it was a good spot for an Under and the game squeaked Over. I also indicated the dog and it wasn’t. In both cases, money was drawn but taken down. That will not likely happen again tonight.
The pressure for the underdog subsided and after drawing it last time, history says we see it tonight. Accordingly, and on the movement, I picked up Boston Celtics +5.5 (-105) and +200 over the Cleveland Cavaliers.
I can’t say the same for the Total. The numbers just aren’t right to act when the forecast is where it stands relative to the market. This is in general a poor game to try and assess market movement but if the line fluctuates it may be worth a second look.
I can say this, the stretched out schedule of single games is tiring on all numbers and forecasts and I’m sure Lebronda begs to differ with my bet.
So, Good Luck and watch where you step.
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Yeah kvb , as far as the total im surprised its still in the 218 and 219 area
both teams shot well , almost every player average or betterComment -
The only exception being the Cavs bench
they went 4-21 from the field in game 1Comment -
lil bit of juice here, but im taking Sale and the BoSox -186 over the A's tonightComment -
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tru dat, tru datComment -
The sharp forecast says Golden State wins San Antonio 114-103. The public gauge has Golden State winning 110-105.
The books are again sucking up those over bets. It’s tough to make a market call on the Total when this situation rarely fluctuates and we are seeing this one game a day schedule.
I will be in Santa Cruz today, soaking up some sun, some sea, and some GrandDaddy purple with some Cotton Candy Crumble and some CBD isolate.
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Chemistry Teacher Lets Her Student Bust A Nut In Her Beaker
The victim, a 17-year-old boy, told police Geliga tutored him at Port St. Lucie High. He said that on April 29 after exchanging several text messages, they decided to meet for a s3xual encounter, which happened in her vehicle. He said they had another encounter about a week later.
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^^^....
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The sharp forecast has Cleveland beating Boston 125-95. The public gauge says Cleveland wins 114-108.
Oh boy, an NBA Conference finals forecast has a 30 point margin. Can you imagine the right recipe of details to get this?
To be honest, this is dangerous territory for Cleveland. I realize there’s a clear collision course between the Golden St. and Cleveland, but there is bound to be a surprise along the way.
When it’s all said and done, many of the best handicappers in the world come up with ratings for the teams being handicapped. Once you have a rating, all you need to do is compare the two teams, come up with a number, and then shop for the deal.
I can make an untold number of ratings from all different styles of handicapping, and I can make them at different levels of performance and watch the ebb and flow of the ratings throughout a season. I list the sharp forecast and the non-predictive public gauge, but I can and often do, make many different lines.
One thing I’ve noticed, when ratings reach extremes and disparities seem so far, there is often failure at key times. There is more to handicapping than just a good model and I still believe one can successfully handicap without modeling, but it’s a long story. That said it is true that a good model should show a higher success rate as it gets further from the line. I often track the forecast with as little as a ½ point discrepancy against the market. Often it’s a little better than 50% you can rest assured the larger the discrepancy, the better success.
This seems so well known that over a season, we may see some give and take in the extreme situations with a better win rate as it gets further out, but when it comes to the big games, the Conference Finals, playoffs, Monday night Games, etc, history shows failure.
It just does. There is a battle often among handicappers that enters all realms, from push rates to efficiency. That battle is fluid and is over what stats to use. Some use more recent stats, some go as far back as possible, some go back to a last noticeable rule change effect, some go back a certain point and arbitrarily say they have enough, some use a weighted set of one or more things I just named, I could go on and on.
At some point, when deciding what to use, even the sharpest of sharps make certain assumptions and guesses.
But once we do, it’s all about the math and the numbers in shopping around. There is a reason the already large NBA line has grown. At this point from a market perspective I will counter the forecast that brought profit this year with Boston Celtics +16.5 (-105) over Cleveland Cavaliers.
Also, whatever source one uses for lines, it’s about consistency. Use the same sources relative to each other; it can become its own market. It’s useless to have a team rating if you don’t compare that team to the league and if you are comparing opening and closing lines over time, of course you would use the same source.
Some sources report very early lines and while many think offshore leads the markets, they don’t. It’s true, once trading, the sharps (as opposed to the public) often lead and the sharper houses like Pinny will shape the market. Early lines in Vegas can be introduced to a special crowd, as in the past, before being massaged. Sometimes this caters to a teaser crowd, sometimes not.
But, to use the phrase, “at the end of the day” a consistent opener and closer is all you need. I track outlier openers and research potential reasons and try to verify the legitimacy of reported trades. Combining outlier openers and teaser analysis, there is indication that the 10 or 11 point tease of Cleveland (Cleveland -5.5) will fail.
Of course, I’ve had indications of failure in the recent past and they refuse to come to fruition.
But get this…on a completely separate study of the evidence the public gauge was derived and has Cleveland winning by 6…114-108. Coincidence? We’ve seen the gauge predict the line a lot. Actually, I only post after the lines are out so while it’s true and does exist, you haven’t seen that proof. The gauge is made with information before lines are made and that Cleveland -5.5 number is suddenly very suspicious.
Boston is a storied NBA town and has earned all the rites to a close game and even an upset. All year long we see sucker lines that the public take simply because it is long shot. In the NBA there is some give and take, but we view it as a sucker bet for a reason. The public is sampling the upset, an apparent sucker bet, but not to the level they may in the regular season. Regardless, they do get paid, sometimes.
Let’s see what Lebronda has to say about all of this tonight.
Good Luck.
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I think Brent Mydland could be my absolute favorite keyboardist...
And I've seen and love some of the greats.
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Is it a fuking wonder that the PGA is all tied up between Day (16-1) and Horschel (90-1) on a Sunday with an NBA sitting in the situation it is? I took Day before this round to win this tourney, but he hasn’t won yet.
After the situation I’ve laid out, my opinion was Boston and Day…one favorite, one underdog.
I own them both but this attention to detail by the markets could mean we are looking at an upset moneyline in the NBA game…provided Day gets the win.
Day moved on Saturday with Garcia while Johnson laid back. Day was in this position for a reason.
My money says he wins. And make no mistake, the extra holes are by design.
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I rarely address players but I should bring up the injury to Thomas and the confirming message yesterday about it when talking about a move from 14 to 16. Further, it may have been a reason the early opener was where it was. It's not the only reason and perhaps not even a chief one, as the rest of the world opened much higher. The news was out soon enough.
Another point is that, next to the numbers decision to play, addressing injuries (because of how they are used) is a second very important factor that successful bettors consider...but you knew that.
I'm shooting into the fire with Boston coming off the heels of large upset that was just paid in spite of an injury.
I'm starting to feel the vines around me and the thorns are sharp, perhaps it's not Jason Day's day after all.
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Day lost and the NBA line is dropping.
Boston steam is not what I wanted to be a part of, even if I was in first. I kind of hope it goes back up.
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I say that above so nonchalantly.
1. You can see I'm anticipating the market, and if Day loses, I would be looking at Cleveland.
2. If you've read my writing, you know I'm often countering moves as money stands to get taken down.
3. Day lost, and the line almost immediately moved toward Boston.
4. If you read #1 and #2, you will see the line movement in #3 is predicted. I just had the wrong "two-pik". The predicted evidence across markets is there.
I bought Boston at a pinnacle in price, not because it has gone down since, but because I didn't think a Jason Day win would move the market anymore than it had toward Cleveland. I thought the books would hold, even if money came in on them.
I may have gained a not very valuable half point on Boston, when you consider values and push rates, but this game may just come down to 16 points. This way, those understanding the markets who waited for the PGA result will only get a push. The Cleveland is too expensive and Boston moneyline is no longer attractive with that PGA result.
I just feel like writing today and at one point I'm giving you a thought process. The thing about the sports markets is that I could have a near same set of circumstances but give a a different analysis on the why's because of a few small indicators.
Sometimes the movement is anticipated to be in a different direction because the environment, while the main factors stay so similar. Sometimes, we just don't know the why's.
Sometimes, when wanting to force a bet for the thread, I can confuse them myself. It's a broader psychological component I've mentioned before that I am still in the process of fully identifying before adding much more here. There's always a mathematical component, we just have to smooth it out a bit.
These single game schedules can really bring it out.
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Well, even the PGA result pulled money from the upset, helping to pave the way for the upset. That may sound like a post-game analysis, but it's really more about how the markets work.
I was a little giddy with this forecast because I knew this was an element of the markets that I had yet been able to write about and I had time today. I figured we would see it in the WNBA once the season is rolling and I would address the extreme results then.
But I was giddy, so I wrote so much. It's nice to see that the forecast failed as predicted…
I wrote this line earlier for a reason. In the end, the metrics show that one can take the recent failures of those indicators leading up to this game and then see this game as a settlement along those lines. This game carried much more weight than the others, given the forecast metrics, and the oversize pointspread is the market expression of that weight. It was a huge upset and there was settlement.
The give and take never ends, no matter how many layers you try to peel back.
Now somebody think-tank this shit.
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It's a big congratulations to the Celtics, the public may have abandoned them a bit this game but what I write about the storied program and the town of Boston is very true.
As time goes on, and more and more teams revolve into the success books, this long term cultural effect of storied programs will diminish.
Sure, the programs will always be "storied" but the effect on the betting public will be less and less over time.
That is, until storied programs obtain renewed success, reminding the public of their stories.
Think of some of the historical championship rivalries, like, say Boston and LA, and then notice a renewed success, that keeps the programs paramount.
This is tough to quantify and can really only be subjectively rated, but rated nonetheless (as mentioned in the above post today), but some are very good at that type of handicapping. I don't know anyone terribly young that is proficient, it simply takes someone to point the way, then years of skillful development.
May I spend more of my posting time helping point readers in the right direction, after all, to divulge too much detail and specifics could run the risk of getting the edges priced out of the market, and that wouldn't help any of us.
Not at all.
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Finally, if you read this throughout the day, or decide to read today’s posts after the fact, feel free to ask me any questions. I’m game. A lot was written today and a lot was just me, talking out loud to you, jumping from one topic to the next, and then back again.
Most concepts written about today can be expanded on 100 fold; but you may not realize that from what I did write. It will be up to me to expand those thoughts. Maybe the WNBA will be a good place to turn.
Thanks for the space fellas, really.
This has been a long day for me, with anticipation of some settlement and careful and likely excessive market watching to bring tonight's NBA game. I'm tired.
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if you HAD to bang , which version would you ?
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repost but worth it lol
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