1. #36
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Stock market during Trump years went down 50% and came back. Now it is down 20% and everyone is predicting the apocalypse.

    Here is my advise. If you are investing for short term get out.

    I remember in March of 2009 when everyone was selling and said the Dow was going down to 0! Well I bought at 7,000 and now I can retire soon.
    Yeah although March 2009 was the bottom in retrospect and that was a fairly long-term low.. Nowhere near that now. If we see the same pattern we are now more like December 2008.

    People forget that are still now up over 20% from the pre-pandemic HIGH. Nobody thinks much of it during a melt-up but everyone freaks out from a correction.

  2. #37
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Yeah although March 2009 was the bottom in retrospect and that was a fairly long-term low.. Nowhere near that now. If we see the same pattern we are now more like December 2008.

    People forget that are still now up over 20% from the pre-pandemic HIGH. Nobody thinks much of it during a melt-up but everyone freaks out from a correction.
    Absolutely. The market could go lower. But if you plan to retire in 15-20 years it doesn't matter what it does short term in 6-12 months.

    The worst is to sell when it is at the bottom and then never buy again until it hits the highs.

  3. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Absolutely. The market could go lower. But if you plan to retire in 15-20 years it doesn't matter what it does short term in 6-12 months.

    The worst is to sell when it is at the bottom and then never buy again until it hits the highs.
    Well if you are actually buying, I'd rather buy it 10% lower. Better point is nobody knows whether it's going up or down next week or next month or next year. 15-20 probably OK, but it's certainly not impossible to have a flat decade.

  4. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Well if you are actually buying, I'd rather buy it 10% lower. Better point is nobody knows whether it's going up or down next week or next month or next year. 15-20 probably OK, but it's certainly not impossible to have a flat decade.
    Yes buying 10% lower is OK. But you may not catch the bottom. So don't panic and sell. I think once Russian war is over then the market is going to start going up and by the end of year it will erase the losses.

    We have a huge backlog of work in construction business and we have never been so busy as we are now. No one is slowing anytime soon.

  5. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Yes buying 10% lower is OK. But you may not catch the bottom. So don't panic and sell. I think once Russian war is over then the market is going to start going up and by the end of year it will erase the losses.

    We have a huge backlog of work in construction business and we have never been so busy as we are now. No one is slowing anytime soon.
    Home construction or what?

    I don't think things are that, just that valuations and stock prices got totally detached from reality. It was ridiculous. Bedroom day trading and Robinhood and shit. Fall was inevitable.

    Dow can go up 3,000 in one week and then if it falls 3,000 the next week everyone thinks the sky is falling. People are terrible at zooming out.

  6. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Home construction or what?

    I don't think things are that, just that valuations and stock prices got totally detached from reality. It was ridiculous. Bedroom day trading and Robinhood and shit. Fall was inevitable.

    Dow can go up 3,000 in one week and then if it falls 3,000 the next week everyone thinks the sky is falling. People are terrible at zooming out.
    Not home construction. Everything from Data Centers (think of Amazon, Facebook and Microsoft cloud services) Warehouses for these companies and a lot of others like cold storage where the fast food companies store their inventory. They will not stop building and growing.

    Also a lot of buildings in the self-storage business. Look at those for investing in their stock. With the housing crisis and the boom in rents people look for self-storage to store their stuff and the companies that own these facilities are very profitable as the overhead and operating expenses are minimal and the buildings are cheap to build and once built are cash cows.
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  7. #42
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    Steel & aluminum and semiconductors are two groups that are really going to benefit from the US realizing they need to be produced here for economic and national security. Think Nucor(NUE), RS and AMAT, Lam Research.

  8. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Absolutely. The market could go lower. But if you plan to retire in 15-20 years it doesn't matter what it does short term in 6-12 months.

    The worst is to sell when it is at the bottom and then never buy again until it hits the highs.
    And what happens if it actually tanks worse than 2008-2009? Again, why was the market gaining due to stimulus? To me if the market is all about prediction... it sure as hell gained heavily on obvious borrowed dollars! It makes zero sense when it comes to prediction. A blind man could have told you it will collapse eventually... Now mark up inflation.... food is expensive... you could have a total meltdown.

    No way the market should have grown on "borrowed dollars"..... the stock market is complete utter BS. Everyone should be in chaos form in a few more weeks...

    America is the dumbest folk.... they want a president OUT because he looks orange... and people get butt hurt when he speaks. Biggest pussy country ever. Now have a bite out of a sh## sandwich.

  9. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    And what happens if it actually tanks worse than 2008-2009? Again, why was the market gaining due to stimulus? To me if the market is all about prediction... it sure as hell gained heavily on obvious borrowed dollars! It makes zero sense when it comes to prediction. A blind man could have told you it will collapse eventually... Now mark up inflation.... food is expensive... you could have a total meltdown.

    No way the market should have grown on "borrowed dollars"..... the stock market is complete utter BS. Everyone should be in chaos form in a few more weeks...

    America is the dumbest folk.... they want a president OUT because he looks orange... and people get butt hurt when he speaks. Biggest pussy country ever. Now have a bite out of a sh## sandwich.
    Though orange is a bad look, I wanted trump out because he's a pathological liar and did putin's bidding, and an uncaring piece of shit. Bite on that and your Civil War. Every first graders knows, if you mix orange and RED, you get Yellow. republicans are a spinless/ cowardly Yellow Party today. The Pussy Party along with their enablers in my lifetime. Won't even stand up to this uncaring authoritarian cry baby. Here's your red wave TMS. Have a nice day.
    Last edited by BOA12; 05-01-22 at 06:38 AM.

  10. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by BOA12 View Post
    Though orange is a bad look, I wanted trump out because he's a pathological liar and did putin's bidding, and an uncaring piece of shit. Bite on that and your Civil War. Every first graders knows, if you mix orange and RED, you get Yellow. republicans are a spinless/ cowardly Yellow Party today. The Pussy Party along with their enablers in my lifetime. Won't even stand up to this uncaring authoritarian cry baby. Here's your red wave TMS. Have a nice day.
    What you fail to realize is that about 15 years ago... I leaned towards the Democratic party. Personally I could give a rats ass about politics to begin with... but truth be told... I'm all about people... just being people. I'm for the poor person.

    But what has happened during the last 15 years... the Democratic party isn't what it used to be... they promote more laziness. More self destruction. Chaotic formulas with no reason or merit. He/she's and She/he's and cousin IT walking the streets. What kind of life is that? Several times when we had a crisis ON OUR OWN SOIL.... Obama was fukking golfing. You simply don't do that.

    It's your opinion that Trump is a pathological liar. He exaggerates here and there... but 99 out of 100 times he backs what he says with action! That's his personality. In business... you talk. People talk. That's what they do. What do the Dems do? Biden lied several times during his campaign before the election. Video evidence is all over youtube. Congratulations you won a questionable election based on conspiracy. It's one thing YOUR PARTY got in.... now DO SOMETHING! What has he done? Nothing. Prove yourself. That's what you do when you get a shot at being a President. He is not mentally healthy and capable of running this country. Period.

  11. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    And what happens if it actually tanks worse than 2008-2009? Again, why was the market gaining due to stimulus? To me if the market is all about prediction... it sure as hell gained heavily on obvious borrowed dollars! It makes zero sense when it comes to prediction. A blind man could have told you it will collapse eventually... Now mark up inflation.... food is expensive... you could have a total meltdown.

    No way the market should have grown on "borrowed dollars"..... the stock market is complete utter BS. Everyone should be in chaos form in a few more weeks...

    America is the dumbest folk.... they want a president OUT because he looks orange... and people get butt hurt when he speaks. Biggest pussy country ever. Now have a bite out of a sh## sandwich.
    I was around when the 2008 recession happened. We went down to 10 employees. Right now we have 150 employess with 25 open positions looking to hire and a 6 month backlog of work.

    The construction business is a great indicator of the health of economy.

    Nothing is slowing down anythime soon. The stockmarket will not crash. You are just overeacting and this is when people lose money or miss investment opportunities.

  12. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    What you fail to realize is that about 15 years ago... I leaned towards the Democratic party. Personally I could give a rats ass about politics to begin with... but truth be told... I'm all about people... just being people. I'm for the poor person.

    But what has happened during the last 15 years... the Democratic party isn't what it used to be... they promote more laziness. More self destruction. Chaotic formulas with no reason or merit. He/she's and She/he's and cousin IT walking the streets. What kind of life is that? Several times when we had a crisis ON OUR OWN SOIL.... Obama was fukking golfing. You simply don't do that.

    It's your opinion that Trump is a pathological liar. He exaggerates here and there... but 99 out of 100 times he backs what he says with action! That's his personality. In business... you talk. People talk. That's what they do. What do the Dems do? Biden lied several times during his campaign before the election. Video evidence is all over youtube. Congratulations you won a questionable election based on conspiracy. It's one thing YOUR PARTY got in.... now DO SOMETHING! What has he done? Nothing. Prove yourself. That's what you do when you get a shot at being a President. He is not mentally healthy and capable of running this country. Period.
    I'm an Independent, take away two turncoats, Sineama? and Mansion and the entire republican party's refusal to help people something would get done. My opinion he's a pathological liar? He's a failed businessman, a grifter, no disrespect MTS. And a terrible public servant. Questionable election? That means everybody elected in 2020 is a fraudulent winner? Doesn't make sense. I'm with you, I don't praise politicians either MTS. What has the Republican party morphed into? Spineless cowards. Have a nice day Sir, I'm not or have never been your enemy or the problem.

  13. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by BOA12 View Post
    I'm an Independent, take away two turncoats, Sineama? and Mansion and the entire republican party's refusal to help people something would get done. My opinion he's a pathological liar? He's a failed businessman, a grifter, no disrespect MTS. And a terrible public servant. Questionable election? That means everybody elected in 2020 is a fraudulent winner? Doesn't make sense. I'm with you, I don't praise politicians either MTS. What has the Republican party morphed into? Spineless cowards. Have a nice day Sir, I'm not or have never been your enemy or the problem.
    It's fine is you grade him on his past business practices... bankruptcies etc. He uses the system well. Every business owner has. So have I. I believe Trump used a lot of his past business knowledge to help America. We all know every politician lies. But I saw more action out of Trump... backing more of what he said than any other President.

    You can blame Trump for covid... it's an easy cheap shot. I'd love to see how a DEM would have handled it in the heat of things. Again, everything is speculation. Trump told the people not to worry because you don't want things to escalate and get terribly out of control. He made the best decisions he could based on the information that was given to him.

  14. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    It's fine is you grade him on his past business practices... bankruptcies etc. He uses the system well. Every business owner has. So have I. I believe Trump used a lot of his past business knowledge to help America. We all know every politician lies. But I saw more action out of Trump... backing more of what he said than any other President.

    You can blame Trump for covid... it's an easy cheap shot. I'd love to see how a DEM would have handled it in the heat of things. Again, everything is speculation. Trump told the people not to worry because you don't want things to escalate and get terribly out of control. He made the best decisions he could based on the information that was given to him.
    I don't blame trump for creating covid, but I do blame him for politicizing it. trump USES and ABUSES the system and people, I'm not OK with that. The Man has zero integrity. Please tell me what "'past business knowledge" he used to help America? Character used to count for something, no longer a prerequisite in the republican party, IMO. I don't take "cheap shots" at anybody, I know what I hear and see. You are a gentleman, I do appreciate your views. I don't believe you're radical right lunatic, and I hope you don't believe that I am a radical left lunatic. BOL TMS, may all your wagers win.

  15. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    I was around when the 2008 recession happened. We went down to 10 employees. Right now we have 150 employess with 25 open positions looking to hire and a 6 month backlog of work.

    The construction business is a great indicator of the health of economy.

    Nothing is slowing down anythime soon. The stockmarket will not crash. You are just overeacting and this is when people lose money or miss investment opportunities.
    Construction is a gauge the problem is that you can have the stock market tank for months before a recession starts, look at 2000. The Fed is projected to go on one of the most aggressive hiking campaigns in decades.

  16. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    I was around when the 2008 recession happened. We went down to 10 employees. Right now we have 150 employess with 25 open positions looking to hire and a 6 month backlog of work.

    The construction business is a great indicator of the health of economy.

    Nothing is slowing down anythime soon. The stockmarket will not crash. You are just overeacting and this is when people lose money or miss investment opportunities.
    What about 2007 or early 2008? Market started moving lower before things actually went bad.

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    I just think it falls further because everything is magnified these days. Ut was over-inflated by a virtual melt-up. A feeding frenzy that created a cycle. Now that cycle might be in reverse. Worth benchmarking where we were pre-covid, which is still way lower than it is today. Still way up from pre-covid.

  18. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    The economic decline started long before Putin did anything. Anyone with a brain seen this coming when Biden started undoing everything that was already in place. Every change that Biden made has gone on to fukk the country and everyone living in it. Even CNN has turned on Biden and isn't defending him as much anymore.

    You guys know that you elected a retard who doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground and are shifting the blame to someone else.

    And you don't know how Trump would have handled this. You say that he would have stood by and let Putin invade Ukraine(which is exactly what Biden did). For all you know, Trump may have deterred Putin from doing anything.
    These a lefties are so messed up. All they do is speculate what Trump would have done. They have not one substantial argument. Nancy Pelosi had to go to Kiev because the idiot in charge can’t put two sentences together. Yet they still talk about Trump. Biden could not even meet with Putin before the invasion because of his lack of mental acumen… Biden instead decided to insult Putin.

    Biden is a killer. More died from Covid bullshat by him, and now people dying in Ukraine because of his senility and phony smile..

  19. #54
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by guitarjosh View Post
    Construction is a gauge the problem is that you can have the stock market tank for months before a recession starts, look at 2000. The Fed is projected to go on one of the most aggressive hiking campaigns in decades.
    The market could go lower. But the reason is going down now has nothing to do with construction or lack of funds to invest from major companies. The capital is a available. 2007-2009 the banks and investment firms collapsed. Probably a once in a lifetime scenario. You have nothing like this now. You may see a slow down but a collapse of the stock market and the economy is not probable in the near future.

  20. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    It's fine is you grade him on his past business practices... bankruptcies etc. He uses the system well. Every business owner has. So have I. I believe Trump used a lot of his past business knowledge to help America. We all know every politician lies. But I saw more action out of Trump... backing more of what he said than any other President.

    You can blame Trump for covid... it's an easy cheap shot. I'd love to see how a DEM would have handled it in the heat of things. Again, everything is speculation. Trump told the people not to worry because you don't want things to escalate and get terribly out of control. He made the best decisions he could based on the information that was given to him.


    F'n shittin' golfing POShit!


  21. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    The market could go lower. But the reason is going down now has nothing to do with construction or lack of funds to invest from major companies. The capital is a available. 2007-2009 the banks and investment firms collapsed. Probably a once in a lifetime scenario. You have nothing like this now. You may see a slow down but a collapse of the stock market and the economy is not probable in the near future.
    The problem is what happens when the Fed raises rates? CME FedWatch Tool is currently saying there's a 97.9% chance that interest rates will be at minimum 2.75% by the end of the year, they're currently .25% - .5%. 2008 was made easier because of the Fed's QE and stimulus, we're not going to have that now because we're trying to choke off inflation.

  22. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by rkelly110 View Post
    [/B]
    F'n shittin' golfing POShit!

    A White Nationalist's legacy's forever marked in the history of The USA. Here's your red wave trump nut lickers.

  23. #58
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    The market could go lower. But the reason is going down now has nothing to do with construction or lack of funds to invest from major companies. The capital is a available. 2007-2009 the banks and investment firms collapsed. Probably a once in a lifetime scenario. You have nothing like this now. You may see a slow down but a collapse of the stock market and the economy is not probable in the near future.
    Depends what you mean by stock market collapse. Is going back to pre-covid high a collapse?

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