1. #1
    ArunSh
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    Odds to win Poker Annual Leaderboard

    Spider did a great job in offering interesting odds on the H2H matchups, but I saw people seeming dissatisfied with the odds to win overall so I will offer some odds myself, nothing great but hopefully more suitable. Maximum bet to win for each individual on any one player is 1000 points.


    ODDS TO WIN ANNUAL POKER LEADERBOARD
    ==============================

    MAX WIN 1000 / PER PLAYER

    1
    bobbywaves
    90
    15,830
    +200
    2 snapperman2 57 15,505 +200
    3 GaryDN 97 15,495 +200
    4 oneunder 79 15,355 +200
    5 sinmiedo 53 15,040 +150
    6 ArunSh 79 14,715 +300
    7 spider 82 14,505 +300
    8 Triple_D_Bet 54 14,260 +350
    9 dlowilly 66 14,155 +350
    10 Enkhbat 81 14,040 +350
    11 GUMMO77 69 13,995 +400
    12 mpaschal34 64 13,785 +400
    13 JAKEPEAVY21 63 13,725 +350
    14 sportfan 73 13,710 +400
    15 MrKLC 75 13,100 +500
    Last edited by ArunSh; 09-02-17 at 05:39 PM.
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  2. #2
    spider
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    jake to win risk 286 to win 1000

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  3. #3
    ArunSh
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    Booked spider. These odds are good until Monday when the first tourney starts, 3 PM EST, then close for that week. Will reopen perhaps like him on weekend with updated odds, depending on whether there seems to be interest (very little so far!).
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  4. #4
    Optional
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    It's like no one who wants to be a forum bookie knows how to frame a betting market around here.

    Both these win markets are sort of ridiculous ripoffs guys. :\

    You have a total win probability of 543% in this market Arun.... you want to be under 150% at the most to be near a 'fair' betting market.

    To put that more simply, with 15 runners, you need to have average odds of +1000 to achieve a 150% market... which is a 33% over round (bookmaker margin on a balanced market)

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  5. #5
    Optional
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    Here is an example market at 162.7% total probability for a 38.5% over round margin

    Just FYI mostly...


    1 bobbywaves 90 15,830 +720
    2 snapperman2 57 15,505 +720
    3 GaryDN 97 15,495 +720
    4 oneunder 79 15,355 +720
    5 sinmiedo 53 15,040 +500
    6 ArunSh 79 14,715 +950
    7 spider 82 14,505 +950
    8 Triple_D_Bet 54 14,260 +1100
    9 dlowilly 66 14,155 +1100
    10 Enkhbat 81 14,040 +1100
    11 GUMMO77 69 13,995 +1300
    12 mpaschal34 64 13,785 +1300
    13 JAKEPEAVY21 63 13,725 +1100
    14 sportfan 73 13,710 +1300
    15 MrKLC 75 13,100 +1500

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  6. #6
    ArunSh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    It's like no one who wants to be a forum bookie knows how to frame a betting market around here.

    Both these win markets are sort of ridiculous ripoffs guys. :\

    You have a total win probability of 543% in this market Arun.... you want to be under 150% at the most to be near a 'fair' betting market.

    To put that more simply, with 15 runners, you need to have average odds of +1000 to achieve a 150% market... which is a 33% over round (bookmaker margin on a balanced market)

    I know that Optional - I specifically said in the other post that I would not claim these odds were fair. I'm a math professor remember, you don't need to lecture me on what fair odds would be and so forth lol

    But simple fact is that people wanted better odds than spider so I offered them - and as I also said, anyone who feels they are unfair is more than welcome to offer better ones! I don't see anyone doing that, and I think for good reason - this is simply not the same as say betting on someone to win the NBA Championship when all the professional players will be trying their very best until the end. SBR Poker is not exactly same thing - who knows who might suddenly disappear from SBR (kind of like BiteMe did for awhile) or lose interest (as several seem to have at least somewhat since there is no contest) thereby seriously impacting your bet, whatever it might be. With those types of factors, oddsmakers have to be more careful as well, making a "fair" market would expose yourself badly.

    And need I remind you also that when SBR offers odds on who wins the "final" poker tourney in those contests which have such a thing, the odds are pretty "unfair" there too with low limits. Why? Because of the same reasons I mention above I'm pretty sure - no one wants to get burned on offering odds where individuals with little to lose can drastically affect the odds in a detrimental way.
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  7. #7
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArunSh View Post


    I know that Optional - I specifically said in the other post that I would not claim these odds were fair. I'm a math professor remember, you don't need to lecture me on what fair odds would be and so forth lol
    Then honestly, you should know that it looks like either thievery or stupidity. From a math professor, there really is no excuse. It's kind of shameful actually now that I know that.

    I was trying to be kind of gentle with the explanation as I thought you were simply ignorant of the very basic math involved. Not doing it that way on purpose!

    I'll continue to assume that was Spiders problem with his at least.

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  8. #8
    Optional
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    And btw... as far as your paragraphs of explanation of the radical unpredictability.

    Maybe you can lecture me as a Math Professor how exactly any of that is relevant to the market you offered with no FIELD included? A math equation would be a good way to demonstrate your argument in this context.

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  9. #9
    bobbywaves
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post


    1 bobbywaves 90 15,830 +720
    2 snapperman2 57 15,505 +720
    3 GaryDN 97 15,495 +720
    4 oneunder 79 15,355 +720
    5 sinmiedo 53 15,040 +500
    6 ArunSh 79 14,715 +950
    7 spider 82 14,505 +950
    8 Triple_D_Bet 54 14,260 +1100
    9 dlowilly 66 14,155 +1100
    10 Enkhbat 81 14,040 +1100
    11 GUMMO77 69 13,995 +1300
    12 mpaschal34 64 13,785 +1300
    13 JAKEPEAVY21 63 13,725 +1100
    14 sportfan 73 13,710 +1300
    15 MrKLC 75 13,100 +1500
    I was only interested in fair odds like this. Since no fair win odds were offered by either Spider or Arunsh, I didn't bet. I feel Spider's matchup odds were much more fair, & it's obviously easier to beat one person rather than 14.

    Would like to see more matchups offered. I requested to see 3 matchup odds in other thread, but unfortunately nothing was offered.

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  10. #10
    PanamaBrad
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    How much for the field? Someone not currently on the list to win it?

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  11. #11
    bobbywaves
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    Quote Originally Posted by PanamaBrad View Post
    How much for the field? Someone not currently on the list to win it?
    I'll offer you a generous +2000 on a field bet, max win 4,000.

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  12. #12
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobbywaves View Post

    I was only interested in fair odds like this. Since no fair win odds were offered by either Spider or Arunsh, I didn't bet. I feel Spider's matchup odds were much more fair, & it's obviously easier to beat one person rather than 14.

    Would like to see more matchups offered. I requested to see 3 matchup odds in other thread, but unfortunately nothing was offered.
    I wasn't suggesting Spider or Arun should offer retail bookmaker level odds. Just posted that ROUGH market to try and help them understand how 'wrong' their markets looked.

    They could probably cut all those odds in half and still get plenty of interest for points bets I think.

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  13. #13
    ArunSh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Then honestly, you should know that it looks like either thievery or stupidity. From a math professor, there really is no excuse. It's kind of shameful actually now that I know that.

    I was trying to be kind of gentle with the explanation as I thought you were simply ignorant of the very basic math involved. Not doing it that way on purpose!

    I'll continue to assume that was Spiders problem with his at least.

    I'm well aware of the math, and I knew these odds were not "fair" - I even said that in the post! What more do you want me to do? People asked for better odds than spider, and I offered what I was willing to do given the risk I was willing to take. I'm not forcing anyone to bet on these, anyone who doesn't like it doesn't have to bet. If you want to offer better odds like the ones you listed, please by all means do so. Heck I might even make some bets then!

    As I mentioned I have seen SBR offer odds in the final poker tourneys of 100 players (who start with even # of chips) of some player to win at around +1000 - which are terrible odds (I know when I got 2nd once, I was priced at like +1600 and I didn't even have the best odds). Are you saying in that situation that SBR was just being stupid/trying thievery? I doubt it - if people claimed that then or now, I'm sure you would give the same answer I'm giving "if you don't like it then don't bet".

    The unpredictability is quite simple. If I offered +700 or so odds on say bobbywaves, leading currently, suppose the two players behind him suddenly stop playing for whatever reason - there being no overall contest or having other life issues (again same thing as what happened to BiteMe even though he finished first last year I think). Then I could very easily get burned by offering such things - SBR Poker is not exactly the most important thing to anyone (other than bobbywaves I guess). It's just fun for the vast majority like myself, I think most would have few qualms about just walking away from poker today for something they deem to be more important, this is not people's profession compared to betting on the NBA where you can count on more consistency from the participants.

    And as a moderator, you can probably check my bets/point history and see that I had a rather poor weekend. You want me to offer +700 or so odds on someone, have multiple people bet on it and then be unable to pay out at the end of the year lol? You claim my odds are on the level of thievery, well if I offered the kind of odds you laid out, you might legitimately turn me into a thief since I'd be unable to pay out! Forgive me for offering odds of what I can legitimately afford - I don't have a bottomless # of points to payout like SBR does.
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  14. #14
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArunSh View Post


    I'm well aware of the math, and I knew these odds were not "fair" - I even said that in the post! What more do you want me to do? People asked for better odds than spider, and I offered what I was willing to do given the risk I was willing to take. I'm not forcing anyone to bet on these, anyone who doesn't like it doesn't have to bet. If you want to offer better odds like the ones you listed, please by all means do so. Heck I might even make some bets then!

    As I mentioned I have seen SBR offer odds in the final poker tourneys of 100 players (who start with even # of chips) of some player to win at around +1000 - which are terrible odds (I know when I got 2nd once, I was priced at like +1600 and I didn't even have the best odds). Are you saying in that situation that SBR was just being stupid/trying thievery? I doubt it - if people claimed that then or now, I'm sure you would give the same answer I'm giving "if you don't like it then don't bet".

    The unpredictability is quite simple. If I offered +700 or so odds on say bobbywaves, leading currently, suppose the two players behind him suddenly stop playing for whatever reason - there being no overall contest or having other life issues (again same thing as what happened to BiteMe even though he finished first last year I think). Then I could very easily get burned by offering such things - SBR Poker is not exactly the most important thing to anyone (other than bobbywaves I guess). It's just fun for the vast majority like myself, I think most would have few qualms about just walking away from poker today for something they deem to be more important, this is not people's profession compared to betting on the NBA where you can count on more consistency from the participants.

    And as a moderator, you can probably check my bets/point history and see that I had a rather poor weekend. You want me to offer +700 or so odds on someone, have multiple people bet on it and then be unable to pay out at the end of the year lol? You claim my odds are on the level of thievery, well if I offered the kind of odds you laid out, you might legitimately turn me into a thief since I'd be unable to pay out! Forgive me for offering odds of what I can legitimately afford - I don't have a bottomless # of points to payout like SBR does.
    I am sorry I came off offending you Arun.

    I did not read anything but the posts in this thread so knew nothing about anything posted in Spiders thread at the time. I just thought you must be clueless to have seen Spiders market and then came up with another one just as bad.

    You are welcome to offer whatever odds you like.

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  15. #15
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobbywaves View Post

    I'll offer you a generous +2000 on a field bet, max win 4,000.
    I agree that is generous. Would have put it around +1200 I think. Maybe even +1000. Without any research on who is 16th to 30th and how far away they are.


    Also, I didn't 'price' you at +720. I simply extrapolated from the odds in Arun's market. I would probably have the top half dozen much lower and the bottom half dozen at +1500 to +2500
    Last edited by Optional; 09-04-17 at 02:04 PM.

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  16. #16
    bobbywaves
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArunSh View Post
    SBR Poker is not exactly the most important thing to anyone (other than bobbywaves I guess.)
    Then I guess you need to retire & get your priorities str8.

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  17. #17
    ArunSh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    I am sorry I came off offending you Arun.

    I did not read anything but the posts in this thread so knew nothing about anything posted in Spiders thread at the time. I just thought you must be clueless to have seen Spiders market and then came up with another one just as bad.

    You are welcome to offer whatever odds you like.

    Thanks Optional. Not looking for conflict ever on here, but it does seem like some posts you've made (this time + in past) were giving the impression that you wanted an argument of some sort. Sorry if I came off badly as well - obviously doesn't feel good for it to be implied that you are trying to cheat/steal from other people as I sort of felt you were claiming/implying with me.

    As you might know, I have never really offered odds on anything in past - I only did it this time because in spider's thread, many were claiming his odds would not get any takers (despite their apparent interest) so since they seemed interested I offered some better ones. I knew they would still not be "fair" from a market value standpoint, but that was the extent of the risk that I personally was willing to take. I do have to still disagree with "then came up with another one just as bad". I mean spider offered jakepeavy at -200 I think? And I offered +350, and most other players are somewhat similar, the odds I offered were way better on most. Yes, overall again not "fair" from a market standpoint but no one is going to offer odds like that. If I did as you sort of suggested, offering half of what you consider to be "fair" odds, surely some folks could still claim those odds are ridiculous from a market standpoint - there is no exact line between fair and unfair, oddsmakers offer what they feel comfortable with
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  18. #18
    ArunSh
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobbywaves View Post
    Then I guess you need to retire & get your priorities str8.
    Well I could if I wanted to, but I simply don't. Personally I like to try to make a difference in the world, and affecting younger minds (as a professor) is a great way to do it I think. You keep boasting about how you are retired, living off the state and so forth - you seem proud of that. I just shudder to think what the world would become if everyone had the same goal in life as you.
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  19. #19
    Optional
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    I know I have been a bit rude to you in the past and reading back see why you arced up at my words. I was being a bit of a smartass and it wasn't really all on you. This is maybe the 4th or 5th time I've seen people offer stuff like this in recent months. And this was just the thread I ended up trying to say something in.

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  20. #20
    ArunSh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    I know I have been a bit rude to you in the past and reading back see why you arced up at my words. I was being a bit of a smartass and it wasn't really all on you. This is maybe the 4th or 5th time I've seen people offer stuff like this in recent months. And this was just the thread I ended up trying to say something in.

    Fair enough! Truth is, I probably would have offered better odds than what I did (not anything near what you posted though haha, say more like +300 for the top guys instead of +200 and +600/+700 for bottom guys) had I not gotten so destroyed over the weekend. Again I don't want to be in position where people bet heavily putting me in a tough spot in regards to actually paying out when it comes time lol.
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  21. #21
    bobbywaves
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArunSh View Post
    I just shudder to think what the world would become if everyone had the same goal in life as you.
    Most intellectuals have the same goal as myself, retire early as possible & enjoy their double digit retirement years.

    I shudder to think of a "Professor" working until his late 70's, kicking the bucket in front of students. How embarrassing.

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  22. #22
    USCPHILLYGUY
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    Take away the acid wash jeans & sandals, Opti sharp as a nail

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  23. #23
    ArunSh
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobbywaves View Post
    Most intellectuals have the same goal as myself, retire early as possible & enjoy their double digit retirement years.

    I shudder to think of a "Professor" working until his late 70's, kicking the bucket in front of students. How embarrassing.
    I'm curious where you got this first theory. Did someone publish a study saying that that's what most intellectuals have as their goal? Or did you take a poll yourself? Seems interesting cause I certainly never heard that - seems more likely you just made it up to try to bolster your position as usual. If you think of the greatest minds in history, say Albert Einstein and Stephen Hawking, just to name a couple, they certainly didn't do what you claim most intellectuals do, and I can name many more.

    Anyway, I don't really care, as always you are entitled to your opinion, and it is pointless arguing further about it. I'm sure you will now reply with some further nonsense just so as always you can claim you won the argument based on getting the last word in - feel free, I have better things to do.
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  24. #24
    smitch124
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    I'm off the board and I haven't given up hope yet. I'm gonna start playing with my eyes open now

  25. #25
    bobbywaves
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArunSh View Post
    I'm curious where you got this first theory.
    Common knowledge, for most educated folks.

    Anyway, I don't really care....I have better things to do.


    as always you are entitled to your opinion, and it is pointless arguing further about it.

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  26. #26
    bobbywaves
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    Quote Originally Posted by smitch124 View Post
    I'm off the board and I haven't given up hope yet. I'm gonna start playing with my eyes open now
    Smitch definitely has the talent to make a +2000 field bet pay off.

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  27. #27
    smitch124
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobbywaves View Post
    Smitch definitely has the talent to make a +2000 field bet pay off.
    well thanks for that Bobby, but I put the no vig price on me at about +12100

  28. #28
    stevek173
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    Rudy +444,336,991,003,785,557,888^8

    if he upgrades from the Taco Bell bathroom internet connection
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  29. #29
    sinmiedo
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  30. #30
    sinmiedo
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    Trying hard to back the odds.
    54 cashes 16 1st places. I m wondering if they are going to make a bet on the most tournaments won.
    Trip D Jake mpaschal Snapperman, the best averages
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  31. #31
    slikec
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    You also have to be lucky to win that many. I didnt play any MTT here since last promo but when i played final table was usually bb600 or even bb800 and 5 handed bb1,2k and 3way bb2k. With 60k chips in play well you can do freaking math is a lot more luck than skill winning so many. Good job obviously is also skill if you win that many but man you had to be also lucky a lot.

  32. #32
    sinmiedo
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    Betpoints: 5758

    I agree there with you Slikec, poker has the 2 components luck and skill.
    I m looking forward to have you back in regular tournaments.

    SBR Bash
    Punta Cana
    Attendee 2/4/2017

    SBR Bash
    Punta Cana
    Attendee 1/31/2015


  33. #33
    Triple_D_Bet
    Triple_D_Bet's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-12-11
    Posts: 6,974
    Betpoints: 2141

    Wouldn't recommend anyone taking me...between the business, football and real poker I don't have the time to care much about these.

    Sure these offered odds aren't great, but it's for fun anyways...i know offering dog lines on such high variance stuff can be a bit scary. Don't think I've come out ahead offering lines except maybe once.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/13/2017

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 138 pts

    SBR Bash
    Punta Cana
    Attendee 2/4/2017

    SBR Bash
    Punta Cana
    Attendee 1/31/2015


  34. #34
    bobbywaves
    Auto Donk = stiff, Tripe = thief
    bobbywaves's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-06-08
    Posts: 10,531
    Betpoints: 21737

    Quote Originally Posted by Triple_D_Bet View Post
    Wouldn't recommend anyone taking me.

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 161 pts

    SBR Bash
    Punta Cana
    Attendee 1/31/2015


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