Some changes for now, I am going to temporarily stop posting the raw numbers as I aim to make some tweaks/changes for now. Until then, I will just do write ups on what I can gain from my data. Today's writeups:
Mets @ Giants
The final game in this series, the Giants are stone cold on offense. They haven't been able to get anything done lately. Will that change today against Chris Young? I don't think so. This umpire has as wide of a strike zone as any(O 6 U 14), so its going to be tough to break out of that funk today with him behind the plate. This Giants offense is reeling. But on the other side, Barry Zito pitches at home today, and during the day, where he has fared better. The Mets aren't the best team hitting either off speed pitches or lefties. I think this is another low scoring grind it out affair. Play the Under 7.5 for 1 unit
Phillies @ Nationals
Against left handers this season, the Phillies have not looked good. And against Hamels this season, the Nationals have not looked good. After scoring two first inning runs last night, the Nationals offense fell flat on its face, unable to get anything else against an average pitcher in Vance Worely. I think this funk carries over into tonight's contest. Both pitchers are pitching well, and both offenses are struggling to get things done. Play Under 7.5 for 1 unit
Toronto @ Oakland
The posted total kind of took me by surprise here. What do the oddsmakers know that we don't? Henderson Alvarez hasn't been the sharpest pitcher as of late. And though the A's offense was cooled off by the Rays yesterday, they are still hot, and the left handed bats should be able to tee off on a developing pitcher like Alvarez. Bartolo Colon pitched well in his last start, but prior to that was not unhittable, and his home ERA is still north of 5. I think a 7.5 total is giving these pitchers too much credit, especially with the recent hitting ability both teams have shown. Yes, the Blue Jays were embarrased in Seattle, but they have new life in Oakland. The question is this, will both teams be able to score 4 runs each? I think, yes, yes they can. Play Over 7.5 for 2 units.
Minnesota @ Boston
This season, Samuel Deduno has been one of those pitchers who as exceeded expectations, but the expectation bar set for him was not high. He has been fairly efficient this season. He hasn't had a bad start yet. But Fenway Park is a known ballpark for giving opposing pitchers a reality check. I think that reality check will hit Samuel Deduno tonight. I don't think he will be a complete gas can, but he will have an inning that he gives up at least 5. Jon Lester, on the other hand, continues to be hit or miss. His last 4 starts have been miserable. But if there is a team to face to right the ship, its the Twins. Unfortunately, with a 7.39 home ERA and a bad outing against the Twins already this year, I am not sure if he will do well enough to keep the total from going over. Play Over 10 for 1 unit.
St. Louis @ Colorado
Another high total at Coors Field. What else is new? It makes complete sense, though. No matter who the Rockies trot out on that mound, its been a disaster. This is perhaps the worst pitching staff in the history of baseball. No one can seem to figure out how to pitch for the Rockies, especially at home. And with the National League's best offense in town, it will be another long night for Rockies pitching. Alex White will not be able to solve the Cardinals. If the Astros can light up Alex White, I see no reason why the Cardinals can't. For the Cards, Lance Lynn is on the mound. Lynn has been good, at home. He shut out the Rockies in 6 innings in St. Louis. But at Coors Field, its a different story. It's not a good park for a pitcher with a negative ground ball to fly ball ratio to have a good game. Though I think the Cardinals could make this game go over by themselves, I think the Rockies will be able to pitch in too. Play Over 11 for 2 units.
Mets @ Giants
The final game in this series, the Giants are stone cold on offense. They haven't been able to get anything done lately. Will that change today against Chris Young? I don't think so. This umpire has as wide of a strike zone as any(O 6 U 14), so its going to be tough to break out of that funk today with him behind the plate. This Giants offense is reeling. But on the other side, Barry Zito pitches at home today, and during the day, where he has fared better. The Mets aren't the best team hitting either off speed pitches or lefties. I think this is another low scoring grind it out affair. Play the Under 7.5 for 1 unit
Phillies @ Nationals
Against left handers this season, the Phillies have not looked good. And against Hamels this season, the Nationals have not looked good. After scoring two first inning runs last night, the Nationals offense fell flat on its face, unable to get anything else against an average pitcher in Vance Worely. I think this funk carries over into tonight's contest. Both pitchers are pitching well, and both offenses are struggling to get things done. Play Under 7.5 for 1 unit
Toronto @ Oakland
The posted total kind of took me by surprise here. What do the oddsmakers know that we don't? Henderson Alvarez hasn't been the sharpest pitcher as of late. And though the A's offense was cooled off by the Rays yesterday, they are still hot, and the left handed bats should be able to tee off on a developing pitcher like Alvarez. Bartolo Colon pitched well in his last start, but prior to that was not unhittable, and his home ERA is still north of 5. I think a 7.5 total is giving these pitchers too much credit, especially with the recent hitting ability both teams have shown. Yes, the Blue Jays were embarrased in Seattle, but they have new life in Oakland. The question is this, will both teams be able to score 4 runs each? I think, yes, yes they can. Play Over 7.5 for 2 units.
Minnesota @ Boston
This season, Samuel Deduno has been one of those pitchers who as exceeded expectations, but the expectation bar set for him was not high. He has been fairly efficient this season. He hasn't had a bad start yet. But Fenway Park is a known ballpark for giving opposing pitchers a reality check. I think that reality check will hit Samuel Deduno tonight. I don't think he will be a complete gas can, but he will have an inning that he gives up at least 5. Jon Lester, on the other hand, continues to be hit or miss. His last 4 starts have been miserable. But if there is a team to face to right the ship, its the Twins. Unfortunately, with a 7.39 home ERA and a bad outing against the Twins already this year, I am not sure if he will do well enough to keep the total from going over. Play Over 10 for 1 unit.
St. Louis @ Colorado
Another high total at Coors Field. What else is new? It makes complete sense, though. No matter who the Rockies trot out on that mound, its been a disaster. This is perhaps the worst pitching staff in the history of baseball. No one can seem to figure out how to pitch for the Rockies, especially at home. And with the National League's best offense in town, it will be another long night for Rockies pitching. Alex White will not be able to solve the Cardinals. If the Astros can light up Alex White, I see no reason why the Cardinals can't. For the Cards, Lance Lynn is on the mound. Lynn has been good, at home. He shut out the Rockies in 6 innings in St. Louis. But at Coors Field, its a different story. It's not a good park for a pitcher with a negative ground ball to fly ball ratio to have a good game. Though I think the Cardinals could make this game go over by themselves, I think the Rockies will be able to pitch in too. Play Over 11 for 2 units.
