Buddy of mine who's a career loser gambling

[mh217]

you should never over analyze a line...too many people focused on the sharp or public money...you should know the teams as a result of watching and having wagered on them many, many times..you should know the players, the coaches and their overall tendencies...and you should also understand that all this is marginal at best..personally i kind of know what a line will be before it even comes out...and if im way off i take it as a good thing...i go with my number...the number that is in my head because i always felt i was sharp enough to make the line anyway...then i like to take it to the next level..which to me is the game within the game...the quarters, halves, and 2nd halves...i prefer these bets...i find them easier to cap....plus they are decided quicker.....we all know this is a tough game and scared money dont make none..so bet with confidence or dont bet at all...when you are scared you will push yourself to the losing side subconsciously.

[parlayin]

I'll tell you this, ever since i decided to drop Bodog and Betonline and focus on just playing @ BM when i made my return to gambling when the NFL playoffs started... I have been consistently winning.

I don't understand. Are you saying that dropping Bodog and BOL helped you win? Please explain further.

[No coincidences]

Its irrational to make some of these broad conclusions based on one persons winning streak. Thinking that books have changed their approaches in spread making or that books "prefer sharp money" over public money is not logical at all, guys. Your bud is just on a hot streak, whether its due to variance or some other factor (like more researching for example), thats all it is. Sportsbooks (and every single other business in the world) don't care whether the money they make is from the sharpest gambler in the history of sports betting or some junkie degenerate, more money is more money. Sportsbooks will continue to profit in the longterm as long as they have vigorish on their side.

Trust me, he's not doing more research. He's making the same kinds of picks he's always made.

I've heard and read a few articles about sportsbooks adjusting to the changing climate of available information. I was just wondering how much of it is true.

[ebbearsfb1]

Whatever you do, don't listen to this.

haha right
.. take shyt teams cause its a trap... everything is trap.... play bad teams.. yup do it.. your gonna win long term playing teams who win 30% of there games... don't listen to people who model their names of professional athletes

[No coincidences]

haha right
.. take shyt teams cause its a trap... everything is trap.... play bad teams.. yup do it.. your gonna win long term playing teams who win 30% of there games... don't listen to people who model their names of professional athletes

A) No team only wins 30% of the time ebb. You know that.
B) Bad teams cover just as often as good teams do -- if not more.

[ebbearsfb1]

Maybe not baseball but they damn sure do in football and basketball... follow your gut, like paco said game is played on the field, court... there's no exact science... you gotta follow your gut, and can tell when its a trap or not... pick winners use, good mm... when I stopped overthinking is when I started winning in basketball and baseball 2 sports I don't follow as closely as I do football

[ebbearsfb1]

American players are too scaried to play big mls.. and lay anything... prime example nfl, if use proper mm, or labby lines... tail the pats they went 13 and 3.. would of made a profit... faded the colts.. same thing, sure your gonna lay juice but if you use proper mm this could be avoided. Don't over confusing things, gambling isn't rocket science

[Ernie Mccracken]

Books can and do take on excess risk. This is not some crazy concept. Nearly every financial institution in the world has pro degens gambling it up every day. Not their money, so who cares? If they lose it all, can always get more from the stupid public (or gubment). If they hit big, yachts for everyone.

The only way to win is to have an informational advantage. Staring at the lines and picking by gut feel is a 100% surefire lock that ensures you have no chance in the long run.

[ebbearsfb1]

What works for some won't work for all.. I think watching and knowing the game is most important, I'm successful at college football because of that know players teams stats... some people don't even watch and do well... to each is own

[t-wizzle]

It's part of the ebbs and flows.

Choose a style and stick with it. If you know what you're doing you will make money long-term.

If you have the balls to pick and choose your spots to lay down the hammer you can win in this thing.

[Albert Pujols]

haha right
.. take shyt teams cause its a trap... everything is trap.... play bad teams.. yup do it.. your gonna win long term playing teams who win 30% of there games... don't listen to people who model their names of professional athletes

Keep playing Missouri ML over Norfolk. The line doesn't matter, just bet who you think is gonna win.

Square.

[Albert Pujols]

Maybe not baseball but they damn sure do in football and basketball... follow your gut, like paco said game is played on the field, court... there's no exact science... you gotta follow your gut, and can tell when its a trap or not... pick winners use, good mm... when I stopped overthinking is when I started winning in basketball and baseball 2 sports I don't follow as closely as I do football

Thanks for the laughs.

[ebbearsfb1]

right because i took missouri over norfolk?
right....



not everything is a trap.... okay albert haha.


hope you keep laughing, while others are cashing....


people are scaried to lay juice around here, if you use common sense, you can be profitable with it, never did i say do it all the time or in college basketball no less..

you need a mix of gut, and feel for the game,

still come down to the players on the field and not the line.... but what works for one poster might not work for others..

some can spot dogs, some cant, some can lay the juice and pick spots and be successful some cant



haha albert but i guess you knew that

[Albert Pujols]

right because i took missouri over norfolk?
right....



not everything is a trap.... okay albert haha.


hope you keep laughing, while others are cashing....


people are scaried to lay juice around here, if you use common sense, you can be profitable with it, never did i say do it all the time or in college basketball no less..

you need a mix of gut, and feel for the game,

still come down to the players on the field and not the line.... but what works for one poster might not work for others..

some can spot dogs, some cant, some can lay the juice and pick spots and be successful some cant



haha albert but i guess you knew that

Quit while you're up. You have no advantage betting Moneylines of highly bet markets. Please don't be naive and think you are playing with an edge.

[ebbearsfb1]

Quit before you sound crazy, what works for you might not work for me and vice versa.. maybe you can't find an edge but others could... americans don't like ml, would rather struggle with spreads and traps.... like I said with sound mm, and smarts, you can be successful playing dogs, favorites, whatever someone is comfortable with.... to each is own is the bottom line

[Albert Pujols]

Quit before you sound crazy, what works for you might not work for me and vice versa

"The line doesn't matter. Just pick winners."

Who is the crazy one?

[ebbearsfb1]

right... because if you don't pick winners the line doesn't matter. That's a fact... tell me the last time more money got in your account by picking losers with a great line?... pick winners is the name of the game

[Albert Pujols]

right... because if you don't pick winners the line doesn't matter. That's a fact... tell me the last time more money got in your account by picking losers with a great line?... pick winners is the name of the game

You have no concept of +EV and -EV.

[Albert Pujols]

Hint: it's better to have a +EV line that loses than a -EV line that wins. Doesn't matter if the wager loses tonight.

[ebbearsfb1]

Haha right, .. name of the game is making a profit... but good luck to you... whatever works for you... and you talk about minus or plus even... a play that is minus 400 can be plus even if you feel it should be minus 500. Fact.... good luck to you albert haha

[Albert Pujols]

Yeah cuz NFL ML's are routinely off by 100 cents. LOL

[ebbearsfb1]

Plus and minus even is an opinion...I didn't say nfl... but I could think a line is off by 30 to 40 cents one way, you could think its off 40 cents the other way... good luck to you. Whatever works for you and makes you money... ill do what works for me

[Albert Pujols]

Expected value. Learn it. The line means EVERYTHING.

Just trust me on this one.

[ebbearsfb1]

Sure, whatever you say albert... do what works for you. Everyone needs to do what works best for them, bottom line... good luck done here

[Dexter]

I don't know if it's just my perception or what -- maybe it's just a small sample size in the grand scheme of things, and my buddy is just hot and I'm missing the games that are cashing with RLM and lines that say everything. Sure does seem to have changed in the past six months though.

you have to start incorporating "square" plays more often. you're too extreme on the "sharp" side imo.

[Dexter]

While I understand what you're saying, I think you're also underestimating the work of a linesmaker. After all, it is their profession. They know a hell of a lot more than you and I do, or anyone else on the board for that matter.

you give these guys too much credit. they may have the edge over novices like your buddy, but do they really have a huge edge over guys like us who obviously pay attention to this stuff all day/night?

[Kindred]

RLM is imaginary fools gold..those % mean nothing. why would a book share the % with you if they help you win?

And why wouldn't they share the $ or # of bets like futures exchanges show the # of open contracts? cause they don't want to help you. they use the bs public % to bury you

Just use common sense and logic when you make your picks, don't chase the "sharp money" just find value.

And when the line moves it's just like the stock market, it will often over correct and offer value on the other side. Maybe too many people chasing RLM created value on the public side..

[No coincidences]

you give these guys too much credit. they may have the edge over novices like your buddy, but do they really have a huge edge over guys like us who obviously pay attention to this stuff all day/night?

Are you kidding? This is their job Dex (setting lines). It's what they do for a living.

[No coincidences]

RLM is imaginary fools gold..those % mean nothing. why would a book share the % with you if they help you win?

And why wouldn't they share the $ or # of bets like futures exchanges show the # of open contracts? cause they don't want to help you. they use the bs public % to bury you

Just use common sense and logic when you make your picks, don't chase the "sharp money" just find value.

And when the line moves it's just like the stock market, it will often over correct and offer value on the other side. Maybe too many people chasing RLM created value on the public side..

Because most people don't say "90% on Team A, I better take Team B." Quite the opposite -- at least the bettors I know.

[paco]

Are you kidding? This is their job Dex (setting lines). It's what they do for a living.

My job is a valet Parker, doesnt mean I can drive better than u or dex for example.

The flip flops don't play the game

[lunchbawks]

fading the public is proven year after year to be profitable.. maybe if you make 2 bets a week you will lose but if you fade the public every game you will win.

[No coincidences]

He called me this morning and told me about the three-team parlay he had last night: Yankees/Phillies/Dodgers. Won over 2 grand on it. I was going to comment about him betting against RLM with the Phils and Dodgers, but what's the point anymore?

Of course he also played the typical Rangers RL, Tigers RL, etc., but he was still up like $900 on the day.

Unreal.

[thetrinity]

RLM is imaginary fools gold..those % mean nothing. why would a book share the % with you if they help you win?

And why wouldn't they share the $ or # of bets like futures exchanges show the # of open contracts? cause they don't want to help you. they use the bs public % to bury you

Just use common sense and logic when you make your picks, don't chase the "sharp money" just find value.

And when the line moves it's just like the stock market, it will often over correct and offer value on the other side. Maybe too many people chasing RLM created value on the public side..

this, duno why a book would do this "on the level". the only people who look at this are guys who want to "fade the public", i disagree with you on that no coin. never have i heard a squareball come in and say wow team a has 90% on the public, i better be on that 2, they dont even care to be honest. you shouldnt have to look to see who the public has anyways, you should know by now.


the 2nd part of my rant is gona go like this:


i do think the lines have got sharper over time. if you go back to lines before the day and age of the internet, they are much better nowadays with the openers. that means the real sharps r gona manipulate the line to their advantage (ie make a real 6 point a 7.5 point favorite and back the dog at 7.5). RLM really only works if the oddsmakers mess up, which i dont think they do as much now, at least on the main sports.

also think no coin is giving this guy whos on the run of his life too much credit. i know many guys who were bad and still arent winning. i do think the playing field has leveled a bit.

[superjeff24]

I really dont think books consider this. They really set the line and adjust it for the 50/50 action split, and make money on the vig. The myth that they are trying to trick us or confuse us is just another tool to make us think its all beatable.

You don't think books have an idea of which side they want people to bet?

[Jayvegas420]

Does anyone know what sort of conditions line makers adhere to so that they continue to work as line makers rather than betting the games for larger profit?