Buddy of mine who's a career loser gambling

[No coincidences]

Takes faves and overs almost exclusively. Plays tons of parlays. This is his fifth year of gambling and he's down probably close to $10 grand lifetime betting anywhere from $25 to $200 on individual plays and $25 to $50 on parlays (almost daily).

In the last 6-7 months -- basically since college football started -- he's absolutely killing it. He doesn't pay attention to anything. Just goes with big faves, big names and big teams. Had the Celtics ML tonight. He always asks me questions like "why would Boston be +8 at Miami?" In the old days, that would signify a trap in a revenge spot for the Heat. Not anymore. Seems like the books are just giving away free money on plays like this and the public is cashing like there's no tomorrow.

As most of you know, I bet a lot of RLM and against the public quite a bit. I beat the closer a lot. I pay quite a bit of attention to line movement. This used to be a profitable angle; the more educated you could be on the game itself and why lines were where they were, the better off you'd be as guys like my buddy get buried. Has something significantly changed since this past fall to change all of this? Is RLM dead? Or is this just part of the ebbs and flows of gambling?

I'm not claiming to have all the answers -- far from it. I'm no standout gambler or expert, but I was making steady money doing this until recently. I know that in the past, I could make a read on a game from the line alone and do quite well reading between the lines. That just doesn't seem to be the case at all anymore; in fact, quite the opposite. I don't know.

[ebbearsfb1]

Guess vegas is hurting for money in a down economy need people to hit sports bets and giving it a way on casino games... honestly have no idea though

[No coincidences]

Guess vegas is hurting for money in a down economy need people to hit sports bets and giving it a way on casino games... honestly have no idea though

I don't know if it's just my perception or what -- maybe it's just a small sample size in the grand scheme of things, and my buddy is just hot and I'm missing the games that are cashing with RLM and lines that say everything. Sure does seem to have changed in the past six months though.

[Sam Odom]

a chicken picked 64% NFL one year

[WvGambler]

We're all like your buddy. When you were steadily winning money, it was your "killing it" moment....it may have just lasted longer.

When we win or lose its always the other guy who is a bad gambler or the other guy getting lucky. In reality, we're all the other guy.

[rm18]

Lines come form power rankings, sometimes you can get an edge if a team matches up well with the other which might be the case here.

[No coincidences]

We're all like your buddy. When you were steadily winning money, it was your "killing it" moment....it may have just lasted longer.

When we win or lose its always the other guy who is a bad gambler or the other guy getting lucky. In reality, we're all the other guy.

You're probably right WV. I suppose in the end, it all evens out. I just had this perception of what worked in the first two years I did this. I was a sports fanatic and had been a big winner in fantasy sports for years before I decided to give gambling a try.

When I learned about RLM and fading the public, it almost seemed too easy and it became pretty profitable to take home dogs along with plays that indicated RLM. Then it all seemed to come to a halt this past college football season. Plays that looked "too easy" and like "free money" to my buddy were just that, and it happened over and over again.

[No coincidences]

Lines come form power rankings, sometimes you can get an edge if a team matches up well with the other which might be the case here.

He also took the Dodger and Ranger ML's today for a lot. I tried to explain to him it's stupid to lay that much juice in baseball, and in the past what I said came to life and he lost a lot, but he's starting to just laugh off my warnings because he never seems to get burned anymore by laying huge juice and parlaying big faves together.

[darkhat]

a chicken picked 64% NFL one year

Sometimes us humans think too much.

[No coincidences]

Is it possible that books would rather take big "sharp" money from the pros than smaller recreational money from us laymen? In other words, do you think the books have found an angle to trap the whales while throwing bones to guys like my buddy (basically the opposite of what RLM used to signify)?

[WvGambler]

Is it possible that books would rather take big "sharp" money from the pros than smaller recreational money from us laymen? In other words, do you think the books have found an angle to trap the whales while throwing bones to guys like my buddy (basically the opposite of what RLM used to signify)?

I really dont think books consider this. They really set the line and adjust it for the 50/50 action split, and make money on the vig. The myth that they are trying to trick us or confuse us is just another tool to make us think its all beatable.

[ebbearsfb1]

Its possibly... gotta trust ur gut and pick the better team no matter the line, they win more often the not

[leeloo]

interesting observation. It does however make sense that your friend would kill it at some point cos "one formula" will not work forever. If it did, we'd all figure it out and be a lot richer.
Just my 2cents.

[No coincidences]

interesting observation. It does however make sense that your friend would kill it at some point cos "one formula" will not work forever. If it did, we'd all figure it out and be a lot richer.
Just my 2cents.

That's what I'm trying to figure out -- if the books have adjusted their philosophies in this past year, or if it's just an illusion because my buddy's killing it with previous "square" plays.

I would imagine that, given the wealth of information available to almost everyone these days on the Internet, something would have to be done to combat the sudden lack of "inside information."

[No coincidences]

I really dont think books consider this. They really set the line and adjust it for the 50/50 action split, and make money on the vig. The myth that they are trying to trick us or confuse us is just another tool to make us think its all beatable.

I've always been told this and believed it to be true, but a lot of posters here will vehemently disagree. It's basically an argument as to whether or not books are "on the level."

[Albert Pujols]

Its possibly... gotta trust ur gut and pick the better team no matter the line, they win more often the not

Whatever you do, don't listen to this.

[InTheDrink]

the problem with RLM is that the more the concept spreads, the more you get guys who normally play one way waiting to see which way the public is going to go

well the problem is that these same guys ARE the public so the %'s that you're used to seeing are skewed without them making plays earlier, and quite frankly i dont know how you adjust

[flyingillini]

I have lost over 750k gambling in the stock market in the last 3 years. Thank god for having a trust fund.

[Br0nxer]

I have lost over 750k gambling in the stock market in the last 3 years. Thank god for having a trust fund.

[flyingillini]

Bronxer, hold me!

[spankie]

[lakerboy]

no angles work.

thats why its called gambling.

[TheCentaur]

it became pretty profitable to take home dogs.

I think this has been too well known for too long and is no longer profitable

[Sam Odom]

fade lakerboy EVERYTIME he picks a dog - this happens only 8-10x a year

[lakerboy]

fade lakerboy EVERYTIME he picks a dog - this happens only 8-10x a year

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1668502-red-sox-ml-114-monday.html

[goduke]

maybe its cheaper to pay the public and let the people who are more informed and play those angles lose. Think about with all the restrictions in sportsbetting online, who is still doing it? Mostly people who have been doing it forever. All my buddies who take faves huge mls etc stop playing as much when it became harder to deposit.

[ThaTopMoron]

I'll tell you this, ever since i decided to drop Bodog and Betonline and focus on just playing @ BM when i made my return to gambling when the NFL playoffs started... I have been consistently winning. I am only about $500 away from having won back all my career gambling losses from my first 2 years (2010-2011). I am going to stick to what I have always told myself if i got it all back and W/D almost all of it. I will feel much better knowing I have all that money i flushed down the toilet back in the bank. From there on out, who knows what will happen

[Jayvegas420]

Anyone can get hot and ride their heater for a month or two.
Anyone who thinks that they can't manage their BR in the long run shouldnt be playing with tens of thousands.
Anyone who claims to lose 750K shouldn't be posting in here.

I've said it before & I'll say it again. Only two things happen when you lie about how much money you have (or have won)
A) People think youre a liar!
B) People will ask to borrow money.

So, if you have millions lying around, maybe you float me a stake this weekend, see how I do?
What do ya say moneybags?
LOL

Donks!

[paco]

Is it possible that books would rather take big "sharp" money from the pros than smaller recreational money from us laymen? In other words, do you think the books have found an angle to trap the whales while throwing bones to guys like my buddy (basically the opposite of what RLM used to signify)?

No, the guys in flip flops in costa rica offices don't play the game. The players do. The linesman can't predict a bobbled error or a double that just hits inside the line.

Just my opinion

[greenhippo]

I really dont think books consider this. They really set the line and adjust it for the 50/50 action split, and make money on the vig. The myth that they are trying to trick us or confuse us is just another tool to make us think its all beatable.

That's been my understanding, much more risk in 80% of the money on one side vs a 50/50 split when you're payouts will always be less than the payins due to juice.

[Jayvegas420]

Are the Small "C" Celebrity who was rescued from an F.B.I. building by the wealthy weird guy?
Just curious, I lost track of that thread.

[No coincidences]

No, the guys in flip flops in costa rica offices don't play the game. The players do. The linesman can't predict a bobbled error or a double that just hits inside the line.

Just my opinion

While I understand what you're saying, I think you're also underestimating the work of a linesmaker. After all, it is their profession. They know a hell of a lot more than you and I do, or anyone else on the board for that matter.

[lunchbawks]

The public x line movement means a lot. Books take tens of thousands of bets on the big games, and while they want to attract even action, they're the experts and can't help but have strong leans on these games. SI has baseball as their most profitable sport to fade the public, 2 430 games played, great sample size. They talk about NBA being a grind, but MLB is the real grind.. long term you will come out a winner if you fade the public, use consistent unit sizes, and lay off the games you should lay off..Its a fact

[peacebyinches]

Its irrational to make some of these broad conclusions based on one persons winning streak. Thinking that books have changed their approaches in spread making or that books "prefer sharp money" over public money is not logical at all, guys. Your bud is just on a hot streak, whether its due to variance or some other factor (like more researching for example), thats all it is. Sportsbooks (and every single other business in the world) don't care whether the money they make is from the sharpest gambler in the history of sports betting or some junkie degenerate, more money is more money. Sportsbooks will continue to profit in the longterm as long as they have vigorish on their side.

[sideloaded]

sigh........when will this forum quit using meme's wrong?