Betting on huge favorites when they're down at halftime

[fearless]

We all know that big favorites frequently lose the first half. Often, they become a pick 'em for the game if you bet them at the half. For example, if the Spurs were a 10 point favorite (-500 ML) before the game, if they're down by 8 or so at halftime they'll be -7 to -10 for the second half and therefore they become a pick 'em for the game. Is this not the ultimate value? You get a 5-1 favorite as a pick 'em.

I've bet the favorite at halftime in these situations many times and I've almost always won with this strategy. But, now I'm thinking if you if you bet the favorite at halftime ALL THE TIME you could be very successful. What do you think?

[fearless]

With the NBA right around the corner, I'll be considering this strategy. Any thoughts?

[gm2022]

I find when a team is up big at half(CFB) taking +3 or pk is very +ev. It helps most times when its a Tulsa, Texas Tech type team who can put up pts in a hurry as well! Basketball is a lil more swingy in my mind, as far as halfs go!

[juuso]

It doesn't matter what the original line was when half the game has been played and the originally big fave is down big. Situation has completely changed.

That said, faves down at half can often be decent +EV bets, depending on the number and your estimation of them stepping it up in the 2nd half.

[Richkas]

Thats square thinking