Are Basic Strategy / "Wong" Teasers DEAD?

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #71
    Originally posted by Pancho sanza
    Focus on the ROI of the teaser, not just the price of a given leg in the teaser.

    Its perfectly fine at times to use sides < -241
    True but his statement is still correct (unless he plays somewhere that pays a bogus -120 on 2-team, 6-points).
    Comment
    • jolmscheid
      Restricted User
      • 02-20-10
      • 3256

      #72
      Originally posted by LT Profits

      True but his statement is still correct (unless he plays somewhere that pays a bogus -120 on 2-team, 6-points).
      So for instance, Green Bay has a moneyline of -265 against Detroit...so doing a 6 point tease down to -.5 or a pk would be a positive EV leg correct?
      Comment
      • jolmscheid
        Restricted User
        • 02-20-10
        • 3256

        #73
        Also, is teasing the "juiced-side" of games considered positive EV? For instance, if 5 Dimes has a side at -125 for instance, isn't it a good idea to tease that side since you still get the same odds on the teaser?
        Comment
        • BiGTonyHAHA
          SBR High Roller
          • 07-11-10
          • 223

          #74
          5d does not tease the reduced juice they tease the given number at the inflated ml.
          Comment
          • prop
            SBR MVP
            • 09-04-07
            • 1073

            #75
            Originally posted by jolmscheid
            So for instance, Green Bay has a moneyline of -265 against Detroit...so doing a 6 point tease down to -.5 or a pk would be a positive EV leg correct?
            It's mind boggling how simple the math is and how many people mess this up. Your question can not be answered because you'd state the teaser odds you're getting and you also say the the moneyline is -265 but where is it -265 and what is the underdog line?

            Okay so @ Pinnacle I'm seeing -265 / +235
            So risk/return = implied probability.
            @-265 Risk $2.65 returns $3.65 ($2.65 stake +$1.00 win). 2.65/3.65=72.6%
            @+235 Risk $1.00 returns $3.35 ($1.00 stake +$2.35 win) 1.00/3.35=29.85%

            72.6%+29.85%=102.45%
            To remove vig divide by by 102.45
            72.6/102.45=70.86%
            29.85/102.45=29.14%

            So no-vig probabilities are: Packers 70.86% / Lions 29.14%
            Save the math and plug it in here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/ in 4th row down labelled implied probability.

            The no vig moneyline is -243.2 / +243.2

            Calculating teaser odds. You just need to convert it from a single bet into parlay terms.

            2 team +100 you need to win 50% to break even so take square root of .50 = 70.71% plug into odds converter = -241.4

            2 team -110 you need to win 52.38% of the time so take square root of .5238 = 72.374 plug into odds converter -262

            So your question depends on how much do trust Pinnacle's #'s right now. If someone offering -6 will take your bet at 2-team +100 you're getting -241.4 while the no vig Pinnacle line is -243.2. That's an extremely small edge normally not ever worth pushing based on rough data like this - However - IF you find another leg with a larger edge to match it with then sure its a great play so long as we're still talking 2-team +100

            Originally posted by rfr3sh
            still would rather not
            Please enlighten me here. What if the total was 36 you still would rather not? LT was generous with his comment - you have to be very selectively with these though.
            Comment
            • NSN21
              SBR Sharp
              • 05-13-11
              • 322

              #76
              Prop - Good post, thanks for breaking that down. Makes it very easy to follow and understand.
              Comment
              • benjy
                SBR MVP
                • 02-19-09
                • 2158

                #77
                Prop's post is fantastic. Nominate that thang.
                Comment
                • jolmscheid
                  Restricted User
                  • 02-20-10
                  • 3256

                  #78
                  When one finds these Wong opportunities, how should ones wager size differ for 2-team, 3-team, and 4-teamI wongs?
                  Comment
                  • blackbart
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-04-07
                    • 3834

                    #79
                    has anyone ever looked at taking the juiced side at 5dimes?
                    they add so much to the wongable side, i think it makes taking free points on the other side profitable.
                    also for anyone who wants to know which sides are profitable in teasers, 5dimes does all the work for you.
                    Comment
                    • jolmscheid
                      Restricted User
                      • 02-20-10
                      • 3256

                      #80
                      Originally posted by blackbart
                      has anyone ever looked at taking the juiced side at 5dimes?
                      they add so much to the wongable side, i think it makes taking free points on the other side profitable.
                      also for anyone who wants to know which sides are profitable in teasers, 5dimes does all the work for you.
                      I like this idea bart...
                      Comment
                      • rory borealis
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 07-30-06
                        • 122

                        #81
                        Originally posted by C.S.
                        The majority of bettors tease a -13 down to a -7, rather than take +2 to +8. You can give people all the information they'll ever need and the majority still do their own thing, hence, the 4 t 13point comment earlier.
                        Most bettors aren't sharp, nor care to be sharp... which is why it makes no sense that these books cater to the 5% who play B.S. instead of 95% of their base.
                        We still do 3team +180, guys that know what they're doing beat us (using basic strat) the rest monkey around and lose.
                        Can you link me to where this is explained more fully?

                        I've never heard of it, but I did play Blackjack as my sole source of income for 7 years. I'm certainly familiar with Stanford Wong.

                        EDIT: I found a link googling it ...thanks to all
                        Comment
                        • princecharles
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 11-22-10
                          • 827

                          #82
                          Can you share or PM me the link please?

                          I found a few good ones, but would like to see what got. Always trying to learn.
                          Thanks
                          Comment
                          • LVHerbie
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-15-05
                            • 6344

                            #83
                            Originally posted by LT Profits
                            Bill the Cop? I'd tread carefully, a lot of his stuff is data mined.
                            Not to be rude (as I would mostly agree with your assessment of BTP teasers) but what is the difference between his work and yours here and do you stand behind it?

                            My opinion is it exhibits very similar symptoms of data-mining (probably more so since your sample sizes are significantly smaller while looking a much broader range of teaser offerings at very isolated key numbers)...
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #84
                              Just between you and me (and the rest of the board...LOL), SBR requested a college teaser article on rather short notice, so I winged it quickly. There ARE +EV teasers in CFB, but totals need to be smaller.
                              Comment
                              • jolmscheid
                                Restricted User
                                • 02-20-10
                                • 3256

                                #85
                                Hey LT...or anyone else who plays quite a few teasers...in general, how do you size your 2-team, 3-team, and 4-team teasers that are -105, +180, and +300 respectively?
                                Comment
                                • raiders72001
                                  Senior Member
                                  • 08-10-05
                                  • 11163

                                  #86
                                  Originally posted by prop
                                  It's mind boggling how simple the math is and how many people mess this up. Your question can not be answered because you'd state the teaser odds you're getting and you also say the the moneyline is -265 but where is it -265 and what is the underdog line?

                                  Okay so @ Pinnacle I'm seeing -265 / +235
                                  So risk/return = implied probability.
                                  @-265 Risk $2.65 returns $3.65 ($2.65 stake +$1.00 win). 2.65/3.65=72.6%
                                  @+235 Risk $1.00 returns $3.35 ($1.00 stake +$2.35 win) 1.00/3.35=29.85%

                                  72.6%+29.85%=102.45%
                                  To remove vig divide by by 102.45
                                  72.6/102.45=70.86%
                                  29.85/102.45=29.14%

                                  So no-vig probabilities are: Packers 70.86% / Lions 29.14%
                                  Save the math and plug it in here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/ in 4th row down labelled implied probability.

                                  The no vig moneyline is -243.2 / +243.2

                                  Calculating teaser odds. You just need to convert it from a single bet into parlay terms.

                                  2 team +100 you need to win 50% to break even so take square root of .50 = 70.71% plug into odds converter = -241.4

                                  2 team -110 you need to win 52.38% of the time so take square root of .5238 = 72.374 plug into odds converter -262

                                  So your question depends on how much do trust Pinnacle's #'s right now. If someone offering -6 will take your bet at 2-team +100 you're getting -241.4 while the no vig Pinnacle line is -243.2. That's an extremely small edge normally not ever worth pushing based on rough data like this - However - IF you find another leg with a larger edge to match it with then sure its a great play so long as we're still talking 2-team +100



                                  Please enlighten me here. What if the total was 36 you still would rather not? LT was generous with his comment - you have to be very selectively with these though.
                                  math right but you don't want to use 6 or 6.5. What are you using for push percentages at 7.5 to 8.5? The math of the SBR convertor doesn't help if you do it accurately.
                                  Comment
                                  • MonkeyF0cker
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 06-12-07
                                    • 12144

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by raiders72001
                                    math right but you don't want to use 6 or 6.5. What are you using for push percentages at 7.5 to 8.5? The math of the SBR convertor doesn't help if you do it accurately.
                                    LOL. Wow.

                                    I think you're a little lost, pal.
                                    Comment
                                    • jolmscheid
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 02-20-10
                                      • 3256

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by blackbart
                                      has anyone ever looked at taking the juiced side at 5dimes?
                                      they add so much to the wongable side, i think it makes taking free points on the other side profitable.
                                      also for anyone who wants to know which sides are profitable in teasers, 5dimes does all the work for you.
                                      Hey bart or LT..maybe you guys could elaborate on this more? Maybe teasing the -125+ juiced sides at 5D?
                                      Comment
                                      • FourLengthsClear
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-29-10
                                        • 3808

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by jolmscheid
                                        Hey bart or LT..maybe you guys could elaborate on this more? Maybe teasing the -125+ juiced sides at 5D?
                                        No. Teasing from +7.5 to +13.5 is still a statistically terrible bet even starting from a +125 base.
                                        Comment
                                        • JimHadley
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 12-29-11
                                          • 18

                                          #90
                                          Could someone please explain to me what a 'wong' teaser actually is?
                                          Comment
                                          • FourLengthsClear
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-29-10
                                            • 3808

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by JimHadley
                                            Could someone please explain to me what a 'wong' teaser actually is?
                                            Doc's Sports explains what Wong Teasers - sometimes called Basic Strategy Teasers - are and how to use them.
                                            Comment
                                            • JimHadley
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 12-29-11
                                              • 18

                                              #92
                                              Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
                                              Thanks
                                              Comment
                                              • jolmscheid
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 02-20-10
                                                • 3256

                                                #93
                                                I think wongs were very profitable this season..based on my tracking...anyone else do well this season?
                                                Comment
                                                • mathdotcom
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 03-24-08
                                                  • 11689

                                                  #94
                                                  My best year on teasers yet
                                                  Comment
                                                  • jolmscheid
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 02-20-10
                                                    • 3256

                                                    #95
                                                    Nice mathy ... I found that adding a couple filters to the wongs really can help..

                                                    Also, is it smart to play all possible teaser combinations during a given nfl week or is that putting too much stake on one team?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Inkwell77
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-03-11
                                                      • 3227

                                                      #96
                                                      good stuff
                                                      Comment
                                                      • GunShard
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 03-05-10
                                                        • 10032

                                                        #97
                                                        This system failed for the 2011 NFL season.
                                                        Comment
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