Honest Question to "Sharps" Like No Coincedences/K13 Etc... On This Site

[Inkwell77]

Nevermind

[big0mar]

You claim that you need a 1000 sample size to prove that anybody is a good handicapper... but why???


hitting 66% even over a 50 sample size is absolutely incredible - here check out this website http://stattrek.com/tables/binomial.aspx


Basically you're claiming that good ole handicapping is no different than flipping a coin. Well your probability of flipping a coin and having it land on 1 side 66 or higher % of the time over a 50 play sample is 0.000894965195742947



so you're telling me that the people on this site who hit 60% of their plays over a 50-100 sample size are just flipping a coin by relying on sports knowledge and common sense...so how are they able to do something that is so statistically unlikely?? I mean 0.00089??

Again, why are there people in this forum that are hitting 60% only at so few plays? Why aren't there guys that have been here for years with a posted record of 60%???

The reality is that people hit 60% here all the time. Then a few weeks later they are broke.

Do not let small sample sizes deceive.

[brahmabull117]

How about you try and become a better gambler and not a self-aggrandizing braggart and ]

except that my problem is not being a good gambler, it's being able to handle the up and downs of sports betting



I turned a 300 dollar bankroll into 7000 dollars over a 2 month period in baseball season cause I went something like 47-14 and then lost it all because of poor money management

[big0mar]

Why did you pick 66% for that example Brah????

If you move it down to 60% you get 0.02844396682049 as your result. Which I think is a pretty good estimate for the number of people in this forum who have hit 60% over a 100 play sample.

Please please please show me someone who has hit 66% of their plays over 100 total plays. PLEASE!

[Romanov]

You claim that you need a 1000 sample size to prove that anybody is a good handicapper... but why???


hitting 66% even over a 50 sample size is absolutely incredible - here check out this website http://stattrek.com/tables/binomial.aspx


Basically you're claiming that good ole handicapping is no different than flipping a coin. Well your probability of flipping a coin and having it land on 1 side 66 or higher % of the time over a 50 play sample is 0.000894965195742947



so you're telling me that the people on this site who hit 60% of their plays over a 50-100 sample size are just flipping a coin by relying on sports knowledge and common sense...so how are they able to do something that is so statistically unlikely?? I mean 0.00089??

Wrong. Hitting 33 or higher # of heads out of 50 tosses has a probability of ~1.2% which is still 1/100 series of 50 plays will a 50% capper go 33-17.

Now your 60% figure is laughable. Of course losers go 60% for a while

[brahmabull117]

Again, why are there people in this forum that are hitting 60% only at so few plays? Why aren't there guys that have been here for years with a posted record of 60%???

The reality is that people hit 60% here all the time. Then a few weeks later they are broke.

Do not let small sample sizes deceive.

people hit 60% all the time and then they go broke because of the following reasons


1)they bet way too much

2)they hit a small cold streak and go into chase mode betting on games where there is no real advantage



my point is that hitting 60% over a 100 sample size is not small... for god's sake you have less than a 1% chance of that happening if you're just flipping coins


it takes talent and it takes an understanding of sports gambling to be able to hit 66% even over a 50 sample size (which has only about 1.6% chance of happening)

[Romanov]

holy chit you idiot, let me go get one of my stats books so I can show you the sample size you need to be 95% confident that you are a 60% capper. jesus christ brb

[BrigadierPudding]

Chasing steam will get you kicked out of books. Why do you think that is?

Most people will win more by playing line moves and trying to bet off market numbers than handicapping, especially the major American sports. If you think you have a better understanding of how an NFL game will play out than the oddsmaker who is willing to take $100,000 bets on sides, then I don't know what to tell you. You're essentially saying that you're smarter than the entire world.

[shari91]

If you really want to learn, go into the ThinkTank. You seem to have at least a basic grasp on math.

Listen to big0mar: The guys who are actually making a living at this aren't starting a thread each time they make a play. They're definitely not posting plays in Players Talk and the majority even avoid the subforums. They're the guys who have been around here for years, have relatively few posts and the ones they do have involve discussing the fundamentals you need to understand in order to even have a chance at doing somewhat ok. Yes you went on a run...the majority of us have. Runs aren't sustainable. Unless you cash out and never gamble again, you need to determine how to attempt to maintain a consistent win rate over a long period of time. Most guys who are winning at this aren't even sports fans and couldn't name 5 players on a team. The problem is most people are too lazy and/or arrogant to put the work in.

[BrigadierPudding]

100 bet sample size in nothing. A monkey could hit 60% over 100 plays.

[big0mar]

people hit 60% all the time and then they go broke because of the following reasons


1)they bet way too much

2)they hit a small cold streak and go into chase mode betting on games where there is no real advantage



my point is that hitting 60% over a 100 sample size is not small... for god's sake you have less than a 1% chance of that happening if you're just flipping coins


it takes talent and it takes an understanding of sports gambling to be able to hit 66% even over a 50 sample size (which has only about 1.6% chance of happening)

2.8% chance of hitting 60% on coinflips, no????

So you're saying that out of this entire forum, > 2.8% are hitting 60%????? Makes sense to me.

And again, please show everyone the person who is hitting 66% of their plays with a sample size of 100. I look forward to your response.

[Romanov]

If you really want to learn, go into the ThinkTank. You seem to have at least a basic grasp on math. Listen to big0mar: The guys who are actually making a living at this aren't starting a thread each time they make a play. They're definitely not posting plays in Players Talk and the majority even avoid the subforums. They're the guys who have been around here for years, have relatively few posts and the ones they do have involve discussing the fundamentals you need to understand in order to even have a chance at doing somewhat ok. Yes you went on a run...the majority of us have. Runs aren't sustainable. Unless you cash out and never gamble again, you need to determine how to attempt to maintain a consistent win rate over a long period of time. Most guys who are winning at this aren't even sports fans and couldn't name 5 players on a team. The problem is most people are too lazy and/or arrogant to put the work in.

and take a fuxking stats or financial modelling class brah. jesus christ, dealing with your ignorance is tiring

[brahmabull117]

Most people will win more by playing line moves and trying to bet off market numbers than handicapping, especially the major American sports. If you think you have a better understanding of how an NFL game will play out than the oddsmaker who is willing to take $100,000 bets on sides, then I don't know what to tell you. You're essentially saying that you're smarter than the entire world.

oddsmakers are not setting lines based on what's gonna happen in the game for god's sake


they're basically setting a line to get equal betting and maximize the juice - no books want to take a gamble


the lines you see are the public perception of teams - it's the reason why Oklahoma has only covered spreads at about a 60% rate last 2 seasons and why Oklahoma State has covered 79% of spreads (despite the fact that they play in same conference, similar schedules and win games by a similar margin). This is because the public perception of Oklahoma is of a powerhouse national championship type team and Okie St as a second tier team (even though OSU has been every bit as good as OU in the last 2 seasons)

[antifoil]

here is the answer to being a sharp with minimal to no effort.

find a local that takes correlated parlays.
find a local that puts up bad number verses the online market price.

[Romanov]

here is the answer to being a sharp with minimal to no effort. find a local that takes correlated parlays. find a local that puts up bad number verses the online market price.

this. the best way ive made money is finding lines with a local (which I don't have anymore) who had a pt off of pinny in nba and ncaab

[BettingWizard]

Brock has hit 60% over 50 or 100 plays before. Do you think he is amazing

[BrigadierPudding]

oddsmakers are not setting lines based on what's gonna happen in the game for god's sake they're basically setting a line to get equal betting and maximize the juice - no books want to take a gamble the lines you see are the public perception of teams

If books were setting lines based on public perception you would have seen K-St open as a favorite last week. Oddsmakers have power ratings and they stick to them. They have refused to adjust on Kansas St, and neither have sharps, which is why the A&M line shot up despite the public backing K-St. Public perception is a very small factor, especially with college foots. NFL is a different animal just because of the sheer volume.

[brahmabull117]

If books were setting lines based on public perception you would have seen K-St open as a favorite last week. Oddsmakers have power ratings and they stick to them. They have refused to adjust on Kansas St, and neither have sharps, which is why the A&M line shot up despite the public backing K-St. Public perception is a very small factor, especially with college foots. NFL is a different animal just because of the sheer volume.

then picking kansas st is basically outsmarting vegas


wouldn't you agree?? I mean their ATS record is astonishing

[big0mar]

oddsmakers are not setting lines based on what's gonna happen in the game for god's sake


they're basically setting a line to get equal betting and maximize the juice - no books want to take a gamble


the lines you see are the public perception of teams - it's the reason why Oklahoma has only covered spreads at about a 60% rate last 2 seasons and why Oklahoma State has covered 79% of spreads (despite the fact that they play in same conference, similar schedules and win games by a similar margin). This is because the public perception of Oklahoma is of a powerhouse national championship type team and Okie St as a second tier team (even though OSU has been every bit as good as OU in the last 2 seasons)

This is just false. The books are afraid of getting hammered. They will take lopsided volume if necessary.

[BettingWizard]

then picking kansas st is basically outsmarting vegas


wouldn't you agree?? I mean their ATS record is astonishing

what proof do you have that they will not go 2-9 ATS the next 11 games or so? None.

[brahmabull117]

what proof do you have that they will not go 2-9 ATS the next 11 games or so? None.

the whole point of this thread is you ride that streak until they show you signs of slowing down



I'm definately gonna play Kansas ST + 9 at Texas this week

[BrigadierPudding]

then picking kansas st is basically outsmarting vegas


wouldn't you agree?? I mean their ATS record is astonishing

First off, Vegas doesn't open CFB lines. Cris does. And Vegas copies them. So you're not outsmarting Vegas. You're outsmarting offshore.

Obviously Kansas St has been undervalued in the betting market. However, I don't know how many people capitalized on it considering the line often moved against them.

[BrigadierPudding]

then picking kansas st is basically outsmarting vegas


wouldn't you agree?? I mean their ATS record is astonishing

First off, Vegas doesn't open CFB lines. Cris does. And Vegas copies them. So you're not outsmarting Vegas. You're outsmarting offshore. (And yes, technically he Wynn puts out the first number in Vegas but they only let you bet peanuts.)

Obviously Kansas St has been undervalued in the betting market. However, I don't know how many people capitalized on it considering the line often moved against them.

[brahmabull117]

Obviously Kansas St has been undervalued in the betting market. However, I don't know how many people capitalized on it considering the line often moved against them.

Which makes me wonder why people think this reverse line movement crap is more valuable than what they see with their own 2 eyes on the field

[big0mar]

Which makes me wonder why people think this reverse line movement crap is more valuable than what they see with their own 2 eyes on the field

You are hopeless.

[allabout the $$$]

if capper #1 hits at a 58% clip over the course of 10 years and hits at 53% in year 11 and capper 2 hits @ 48 % over the same 10 year period and year 11 hits 58% brah who do you follow? answer is capper #1 he has shown to be more consistant over the whole 11 year period as a winning capper thats where your stats over 50 games mean absolutely nothing anyone can hit 60% over a small time frame its the long haul that matters all of your stats help but there is ALOT more to it than trends you state all these trends over 2-5 years do you really think that in college or pro football there isnt turnover?next year with no weedon or blackmon will ok state be the same not gonna happen now with oklahoma they have proven year in and year out with stoops coaching and all of the top recruits they get there will be much less of a drop off year to year than these teams who have good players for a year or 2. you are probably too young to remember this but miami, fla state and florida used to run college football ats and straight up once the turnover of coaches began and the talent level dipped off all of those ats machines disappeared before bill snyder went to k state they were the worst college football team in the country over the course of 20 years maybe even longer you have to cap the games coaches and talent not just the trends and coaching is a lot more important than you think

[FourLengthsClear]

the whole point of this thread is you ride that streak until they show you signs of slowing down



I'm definately gonna play Kansas ST + 9 at Texas this week

What if the number was +2.5 and not +9, would you still be looking to ride the streak then?

[brahmabull117]

What if the number was +2.5 and not +9, would you still be looking to ride the streak then?

fukk no


but that's why I said I don't play anything blindy. + 9 is an obscenely inflated line (which gives you an idea of why KSU has been covering left and right this year)

[brahmabull117]

if capper #1 hits at a 58% clip over the course of 10 years and hits at 53% in year 11 and capper 2 hits @ 48 % over the same 10 year period and year 11 hits 58% brah who do you follow? answer is capper #1 he has shown to be more consistant over the whole 11 year period as a winning capper thats where your stats over 50 games mean absolutely nothing anyone can hit 60% over a small time frame its the long haul that matters all of your stats help but there is ALOT more to it than trends you state all these trends over 2-5 years do you really think that in college or pro football there isnt turnover?next year with no weedon or blackmon will ok state be the same not gonna happen now with oklahoma they have proven year in and year out with stoops coaching and all of the top recruits they get there will be much less of a drop off year to year than these teams who have good players for a year or 2. you are probably too young to remember this but miami, fla state and florida used to run college football ats and straight up once the turnover of coaches began and the talent level dipped off all of those ats machines disappeared before bill snyder went to k state they were the worst college football team in the country over the course of 20 years maybe even longer you have to cap the games coaches and talent not just the trends and coaching is a lot more important than you think

when are you gonna understand that you have to put your sentences in proper paragraphs with decent punctuation for any of us to understand what the hell you're saying???



Everything you ever write looks like a giant run-on sentence

[allabout the $$$]

when are you gonna understand that you have to put your sentences in proper paragraphs with decent punctuation for any of us to understand what the hell you're saying???



Everything you ever write looks like a giant run-on sentence

well if you cant understand the point of whats there then u must not be able to read.......

u sure you arent priskilla he used to cry about my run on sentences 2 seems like u and prissy are the same way lose some plays disappear and make excuses

[FourLengthsClear]

fukk no


but that's why I said I don't play anything blindy. + 9 is an obscenely inflated line (which gives you an idea of why KSU has been covering left and right this year)

Right, so when all is said an done you are looking at the number in isolation - the same as the pure handicappers are and the same as the maths guys are.

Would you be less inclined to take the "obscenely inflated" line if Kansas State were 4-5 ATS this year?

[brahmabull117]

Right, so when all is said an done you are looking at the number in isolation - the same as the pure handicappers are and the same as the maths guys are.

true, I guess these trends just help me point into the direction of the overrated/underrated teams getting soft lines

[Fa11en]

"Why is it impossible to make money betting if you just figure out who those teams are every year and ride the hot streaks?"

How do you go about figuring out these hot streaks? All of your examples read as follows "if I had adopted a system to bet x team in y situation over the course of z amount of games then I would have made money".

You cannot predict how the course of season or team is going to go. You can talk about public and sharps and market efficiency all day but NONE, I repeat NONE, of that will provide you a crystal ball as to what a team is going to do over a small sample size, let alone how to interject your system into it.

Handicapping and finding value in lines is an augmentation to some successful bettors, I'll give you that, but you have no idea what goes into a line or what information a particular line movement indicates. Most of the theories of line movement presented by posters is misleading and sometimes absurd.

If you believe yourself to be an exceptional handicapper and know something the world does not, the best way to gauge your handicapping is play the early market and see if your price beats out the closing price. This would indicate that you were able to create an edge by picking off numbers while the line is inefficient.

And maybe, this pure handicapping prowess can give you a consistent edge that, over time, would turn a 50% capper to a 53% capper. Because you are able to quantitatively beat the "coin-flip" that the final line represents.

[Romanov]

brahma,

When you learn that reverse line movement is pushed by the people who are smarter, more experienced, with more money on the line, and have more than "their 2 eyes on the field" on the field, than you do, maybe MAYBE you will win

[BetterBizness]

If you really want to learn, go into the ThinkTank. You seem to have at least a basic grasp on math.

Listen to big0mar: The guys who are actually making a living at this aren't starting a thread each time they make a play. They're definitely not posting plays in Players Talk and the majority even avoid the subforums. They're the guys who have been around here for years, have relatively few posts and the ones they do have involve discussing the fundamentals you need to understand in order to even have a chance at doing somewhat ok. Yes you went on a run...the majority of us have. Runs aren't sustainable. Unless you cash out and never gamble again, you need to determine how to attempt to maintain a consistent win rate over a long period of time. Most guys who are winning at this aren't even sports fans and couldn't name 5 players on a team. The problem is most people are too lazy and/or arrogant to put the work in.

best, and most insightful post in this thread... and my name isn't even JJ....