Most of you guys claim that it's impossible long term to make money in sports betting by doing your own research and identifying games with inaccurate/soft lines (the theory of the efficient market in that every bet you make is essentially a coin toss because all the information is reflected in the lines)
Okay let's say this is true, Let's look at Oklahoma State and Oklahoma over last 2 seasons. These are 2 teams with very similar rankings, similar schedules and similar margin of victory in their games. Yet Okie St heading back to last season is 17-5 ATS (77% winning percentage) while OU is 14-9 (60%). How do you explain this?? The only way a team can cover spreads at that insane rate over a 2 year period is soft lines right?? But if they're soft lines, then doesn't that kill the whole theory of the efficient market??
What about the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL This year?? That team is 7-0-1 ATS. If it's an efficient market, why do they keep covering every week??
So I don't get it why people claim that making bets based on your own analysis of the information in front of you will never result in a winning strategy. Why do you say that?? I mean there are teams and matchups every year in both totals and spreads that cover at an absolutely incredible rate. Why is it impossible to make money betting if you're able to consistently figure out those teams/trends/matchups and exploit it every year ???
People claim that hitting 60% ATS is impossible, but if you just played every Jags/Dolphins/Louisville CFB/Penn St CFB Under this season - you would have won 85+%. Why is it impossible to make money betting if you just figure out who those teams are every year and ride the hot streaks??
Okay let's say this is true, Let's look at Oklahoma State and Oklahoma over last 2 seasons. These are 2 teams with very similar rankings, similar schedules and similar margin of victory in their games. Yet Okie St heading back to last season is 17-5 ATS (77% winning percentage) while OU is 14-9 (60%). How do you explain this?? The only way a team can cover spreads at that insane rate over a 2 year period is soft lines right?? But if they're soft lines, then doesn't that kill the whole theory of the efficient market??
What about the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL This year?? That team is 7-0-1 ATS. If it's an efficient market, why do they keep covering every week??
So I don't get it why people claim that making bets based on your own analysis of the information in front of you will never result in a winning strategy. Why do you say that?? I mean there are teams and matchups every year in both totals and spreads that cover at an absolutely incredible rate. Why is it impossible to make money betting if you're able to consistently figure out those teams/trends/matchups and exploit it every year ???
People claim that hitting 60% ATS is impossible, but if you just played every Jags/Dolphins/Louisville CFB/Penn St CFB Under this season - you would have won 85+%. Why is it impossible to make money betting if you just figure out who those teams are every year and ride the hot streaks??