People Who Don't Believe in Big Favorites In Baseball

[hawley]

I have forgotten more about baseball in the last year than you will ever know in your lifetime phaggot

I dont claim to know heaps about baseball so you may be right

I know enough not to even bother reading an ESPN preview or using accuscore, a pitchers w/l record, his ERA and how and other stupid historical fact that has no relevance on a future game.

All your capping tools right brah?

[brahmabull117]

I dont claim to know heaps about baseball so you may be right I know enough not to even bother reading an ESPN preview or using accuscore, a pitchers w/l record, his ERA and how and other stupid historical fact that has no relevance on a future game. All your capping tools right brah?

yea none of those things have anything to do with handicapping a game right???


it's only a coincedence that I have used those tools to win 70% of my bets during basketball playoffs and now 75% of my bets during baseball season??



oh wait, 50+ bets are a tiny sample size. I'm just getting lucky over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again right???

[BernardMadoff]

Record useless after the fact, nobody has a crystal ball.

[hawley]

Like I have said before lets see where you are in a month or two or at the end of the baseball season.

The fact you deposit $300 and have played from their says enough.

Now back to bb.com alright

[brahmabull117]

Like I have said before

Like I said before, ur not even in my league when it comes to baseball or gambling so fck off

[hawley]

Like I said before, ur not even in my league when it comes to baseball or gambling so fck off

You are possibly the biggest joke on this forum you understand that?

Your starting BR was $300 and you say im not in your league?

How many times you reloaded this year? Go about bump that thread where shari owned you again

[KKoz9]

can you please explain yourselves??



what is wrong with taking big favorites (let's say lines between -160 to -300) if there is tremendous value in that line??? I'm not suggesting blindly play all big favorites but there are a lot of times when a big favorite is in even a much better position to win their game/series than the line would indicate




Hell, the Phillies are 16-1 in Roy Halladay's last 17 starts. I'm sure a lot of those starts were around - 200, but that's 16-1 for god's sake!! That's a 94% winning percentage. Another perfect example was the brewers last weekend against pittsburg, the line was about -240, which sounds like a lot until you do some research and realize the brewers have beaten the Pirates 35 out of 38 games in Milwaukee.... that line should have been - 3,000!!!!

Complete oxymoron. Any line between -160 to -300 cannot have "tremendous value"...that's why you have to lay $160-$300 to win $100.

It's easy to provide examples after the fact, but if you are so smart why didn't you pound the heavy chalk in every one of Halladay's last 17 starts?

Woulda, coulda, shoulda is for banter on forums, it doesn't make money.

Congrats on your run but if you continue with the same strategy you will ultimately fail miserably in the long run.

[nyjets15]

What a clown.

Goes all-in, yet claims to have bankroll management
Thinks 2 weeks of plays is a worthwhile indicator
Believes that posting plays gives him bad luck
Completely ignores sound advice given to him by those who've been around the block
Plays 20 cent baseball lines
And is cocky to boot

thats pretty much the gist of it!

[nyjets15]

I have forgotten more about baseball in the last year than you will ever know in your lifetime phaggot

how do you know this?

[brahmabull117]

Complete oxymoron. Any line between -160 to -300 cannot have "tremendous value"...that's why you have to lay $160-$300 to win $100

you obviously don't understand mathematics



if a team has an 10-1 chance to win a game and the line is only -200, how is that not tremendous value???

[BernardMadoff]

you obviously don't understand mathematics



if a team has an 10-1 chance to win a game and the line is only -200, how is that not tremendous value???

No team in baseball has a 10-1 chance to win, and what makes you think you can come up with odds on who realistically can win a game. Listen to yourself, thats nonsense. Too many elements involved in team sports, easier if it were a one on one sport, you cant put a 10-1 number before a game.

[brahmabull117]

No team in baseball has a 10-1 chance to win, and what makes you think you can come up with odds on who realistically can win a game. .

really??


the brewers have won 35 out of 37 games in Milwaukee against Pittsburg, that's 11-13 series in a row that have nearly all resulted in sweeps



So let's hypothetically say the pirates and brewers play a 100 series in milwaukee. Do you really think the Pirates would win more than 10??? I don't even think they would win 5 of those series

[BernardMadoff]

really??


the brewers have won 35 out of 37 games in Milwaukee against Pittsburg, that's 11-13 series in a row that have nearly all resulted in sweeps



So let's hypothetically say the pirates and brewers play a 100 series in milwaukee. Do you really think the Pirates would win more than 10??? I don't even think they would win 5 of those series

If that was the case, the next time they played the moneyline would be no less than -1000 then, it wont be near that though. Are you talking 35 or 37 series or 35 of 37 games?

[brahmabull117]

If that was the case, the next time they played the moneyline would be no less than -1000 then, it wont be near that though.

this is why you and 99% of people on this site probably fail at gambling



Vegas doesn't set lines to what they believe will happen, they set lines to what the public perceives will happen so they can get 50-50 betting and make lots of money by juicing everybody to death



trust me, if those linemakers set those lines to what they believe would happen, the pirates/brewers series last weekend would have had a -10,000 line

[JT OZ]

Just got off work and did the smart thing by hedging my parlays depending on the Rangers when the Angels were at +220 before the 5th, Texas showed yesterday they can give up a lead but I like them at 8-1 a lot more than 2-1.

[hawley]

this is why you and 99% of people on this site probably fail at gambling



Vegas doesn't set lines to what they believe will happen, they set lines to what the public perceives will happen so they can get 50-50 betting and make lots of money by juicing everybody to death



trust me, if those linemakers set those lines to what they believe would happen, the pirates/brewers series last weekend would have had a -10,000 line

You constantly talk and act as if you succeed at gambling but tell me - is this the most amount you have ever made before having to reload?

[brahmabull117]

You constantly talk and act as if you succeed at gambling but tell me - is this the most amount you have ever made before having to reload?

I have only been gambling for about a year or so


I was terrible at beginning but lots of people are terrible before they are good...I made a lot of money during the NBA playoffs and that has continued again with MLB



my bankroll was very small when I started because I just wasn't sure how good I would be at baseball (I had never bet baseball before and had always heard it was a very difficult sport to bet on)

[Love The Action]

Good topic Brahma...and good thread with solid feedback.

Here's what I would add:

o rly?? Ive won 75% of my bets last 3 weeks and my avg play was only about - 150

I would win at about a 80-90% rate if I exclusively took - 200 and bigger lines

Then why wouldn't you? 90% at -200 is very profitable? Heck, 90% at -300 is profitable.

Brahma, you seem like a decent guy.

I will give you some advice here.

Spend a few days in the handicappers think tank and learn as much as you can about expected value and expected growth. Ganchrow has 2 great threads on both of those topics. Thats how I started to learn about this business and how to ACTUALLY win.

Winning in this business is about grinding out profits over a long period. Even the strongest edge players go through large swings. Its a roller coaster ride and nobody can predict what will happen next, NOBODY.

And it seems to me that you are on a hot streak right now, nothing more than luck. Eventually that luck will run out and you will probably lose your entire bankroll. Seen it happen many times on SBR.

The only thing you can rely on is your edge, because in the end, numbers dont lie.

Dont be so concerned about how much money you make in a day/week/month. Worry about the price you got compared to the fair price when a market closes.

Awesome post and response. I would also add to read the applicable sections of Conquering Risk.

At the of the day, it really is about setting your own lines and trying to find where the Books are off 1/2 run or more on a total or maybe ten cents on a ML. If you bet those mistakes early enough to beat the line moves, and as a result beat the closer on a regular basis, you will be a long-term successful sports investor. Success cannot be measured by a couple month's worth of results, it's about season-long profit year after year.

Brah, I have to give you your props for your recent streak. However, with faves hitting at unprecedented rate during your streak, you have to admit that coincidence added to your success...at least to some extent. Clearly, if you continued to bet faves at your same rate, the unprecedented rate of faves cashing will eventually drop and so will your bankroll. Just be careful and don't think you are sole person in the world that can continue to hit at such a high rate. I hope you do, but do you really think that is going to happen?

Just be smart with money management and never get too cocky in this game. Variance has a way of humbling even the most confident of us and you need to be prepared for the tough times.

Keep refining and improving your capping techniques and never stop learning. Rich Boy's post offered some solid advice. Whether or not you publicly agree with his advice has little importance, but you should try to take
something out of it and learn in private. Try to be a sponge and learn as much as possible, especially the math involved.

Sounds like you had a great start and really know your stuff. Congrats...just don't stop learning. Good luck.

[hawley]

I have only been gambling for about a year or so


I was terrible at beginning but lots of people are terrible before they are good...I made a lot of money during the NBA playoffs and that has continued again with MLB

And you seriously carry on as if you have the whole game figured out?

[brahmabull117]

90% at -200 is very profitable? Heck, 90% at -300 is profitable.

brah I already hit about 75% on average of -150 plays, why I would I stop doing what I'm doing??

[brahmabull117]

And you seriously carry on as if you have the whole game figured out?

don't question it, just sit back and enjoy the fireworks...

[BernardMadoff]

this is why you and 99% of people on this site probably fail at gambling



Vegas doesn't set lines to what they believe will happen, they set lines to what the public perceives will happen so they can get 50-50 betting and make lots of money by juicing everybody to death



trust me, if those linemakers set those lines to what they believe would happen, the pirates/brewers series last weekend would have had a -10,000 line

Bro I dont fail at gambling, Ive probably withdrawn more than youve gambled. I understand math, majored in electrical and computer engineering, took $500 last year and turned it into a little over $37,000 in about 19 days last year, have had many $10,000 weeks, so I dont think you can tell too much I dont already know, but I do remember you first coming here last year during basketball season, had a good week maybe two betting high moneylines, then you got swamped and disappeared even after many tried to warn you on those high basketball moneylines, please tell me my memory is incorrect? I could always review your posts, but anyway we can have a little all sports competition since youre feeling quite confident for say a month and we can see whose made more.

[BernardMadoff]

I have only been gambling for about a year or so

Think I remember you last year saying youve been gambling for 6 years, I didnt believe that one bit because of your noobish strategies with high moneylines. I hope you keep winning as I want everyone to win, but you will find the last month of the baseball season if you keep betting those high lines you will get swamped, mark my words. The teams that were losing more all year will win more the last month and vice versa.

[brahmabull117]

Bro I dont fail at gambling, Ive probably withdrawn more than youve gambled. I understand math, majored in electrical and computer engineering, took $500 last year and turned it into a little over $37,000 in about 19 days last year, have had many $10,000 weeks, so I dont think you can tell too much I dont already know, but I do remember you first coming here last year during basketball season, had a good week maybe two betting high moneylines, then you got swamped and disappeared even after many tried to warn you on those high basketball moneylines, please tell me my memory is incorrect? I could always review your posts, but anyway we can have a little all sports competition since youre feeling quite confident for say a month and we can see whose made more.

I don't care about all that, I just want to make a lot of money

[blackeyeshamus]

lively discussion in an animated forum.
thank you, everybody! learning a great deal right now!
essentially, I've learned to practice patience and watch carefully-
because every player serves as an example. some good examples
demonstrate valuable tactics, while bad examples continue
to proliferate recipes for catastrophe. thanks, again.
exceptional reading. seriously. good luck!

[BernardMadoff]

I don't care about all that, I just want to make a lot of money

Same here, hope it continues.

[kerrywoodwins20]

I don't know what you would consider me, I have turned $300 into $4,000 in a matter of about 16 days... and I bet on a ton of favorites




I don't mind underdog betting in general in sports - I love playing dogs in basketball, but I find it very very difficult to do in baseball. U just gotta do what you feel comfortable with IMO

You wouldn't be starting a bankroll at 300 if you were a gambling genius.

[Ralphie1412]

check out samsncharge99 thread for the answer. He is like 40 games over .500 and down 30 units. Grant its monopoly money air bets, but still. Its nauseating.

[KKoz9]

you obviously don't understand mathematics



if a team has an 10-1 chance to win a game and the line is only -200, how is that not tremendous value???

Where did you pull that from? the last 37?

really??


the brewers have won 35 out of 37 games in Milwaukee against Pittsburg, that's 11-13 series in a row that have nearly all resulted in sweeps



So let's hypothetically say the pirates and brewers play a 100 series in milwaukee. Do you really think the Pirates would win more than 10??? I don't even think they would win 5 of those series

Which, mathematically, can realistically in NO WAY be extrapolated to the next 37 games. Go back 1000, 500, or even 100 games to get more realistic odds. Why do you think the arbitrary number of 37 was chosen?...because that is when those odds go to sh!t and things start to even out.



Setting that very significant reality aside...

Yes, the Pirates would win (dare I assume, ALWAYS HAVE) more than 10 every time, as I'm sure they have in the last 100. Probably more than 25.

Even WITH that horrendous stretch (which will not happen again for who knows how many decades), and assuming the Pirates have won 25 of the last 100, and the line being "only" -200 as you set it, that's would give you a profit of about $2500 on a $100/game wager.

Sounds great right?

Well, that's also assuming that you wager $100 a game, meaning RISK $200, (which you don't) and you would actually have the discipline make that bet for more than 10 years (which you haven't/won't), and surviving the inevitable streak/anomoly in that flawed strategy where Pitt actually wins 3 or 4 in a row and you blow a quick, cool 6-800. Giving you those three very large assumptions, that would leave you an average $250 a year in the black...almost what you'd be risking on ONE BET. Great value huh?




Sportsbetting does not have static odds based on recent past performance, it's not like determining a percentage of catching a river card in poker. Sportsbetting has dozens of variables in every game.

Let me know when the next 90% streak is going to START and then you'll have something.



I repeat, congrats on your run but if you continue with the same strategy you will ultimately fail miserably in the long run.




Oh, and maybe you should become a SBR PRO now while you still have over 200 bucks in a book.

[GAMBLOR777]

dude, just post a play...one play...see what happens.

it's all in your head, you're just a dreamer...

poor kid, blinded my money. We're here to help, not shoot you down...but your attitude is childish.

So many like you have come and gone, you are not special.

[JoJo5473]

PS 2: You like favourites and probably you're making money by betting favourites because we're on July&August period. When September comes in, you will hate these big priced favs. Laying heavy chalk is quick recipe to poorhouse.

Can you please explain to me why

[pavyracer]

Can you please explain to me why

Rosters expand in September and teams bring in a bunch of minor leaguers to give them some games under their belts. Also teams who are 6-10 games up in their division are rotating their players to rest and get them ready for playoffs.

[brahmabull117]

[quote=pavyracer;11051426. Also teams who are 6-10 games up in their division are rotating their players to rest and get them ready for playoffs.[/quote]



that doesn't start becoming a problem until late september when teams have already clinched the division


the phillies aren't gonna be resting players up 6 games in early september

[Ice House]

do you smell what the rock is cooking?

[MrXYZ]

Some excellent advice on this thread. Congrats on your efforts so far in cashing winners. But be aware that due to:

1)the way sports betting is structured, &
2)the randomness that affects the outcome of games

this "betting on favourites" strategy will end with the books taking all your money, because their businesses are founded on these two facts.

Good luck with your plays.