People Who Don't Believe in Big Favorites In Baseball

[brahmabull117]

probably tigers and/or rangers.


brah,
you should listen to this rich boy character- he and the other guys telling you this stuff are not wrong. but he worded in a non-asshole way. that way you an be in it for the long haul. not to take anything away from the run youre on now.

money management is the single most important aspect of sports betting. even more than the research. which is the second most important.

Those 2 guys can choke on this rooster


I have been dominating for 7 weeks now with the nba playoffs included


They can keep hating and ill keep doubling my bankroll. Oh and I'm not stupid, I know about money management.

[ngates815]

The Rock....


Toss your Fellow Wrastling pal a Winner, and how much you got riding on it?

I've been doing shitty betting +140 - -130 bets, I need to find a winner outside those numbers.

THANKS.

[Kindred]

obviously you figured out the secret to making a living betting sports, bet on heavy chalk!

[ngates815]

Lets get a winner, then lets celebrate like above !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


How much riding on it and which team is the bet.

Thanks Rock...

[Glitch]

ya good sh*t brah

how long you gonna keep gates danglin man- he wants the play

[DrStale]

They can keep hating and ill keep doubling my bankroll. Oh and I'm not stupid, I know about money management.

Unintentional comedy at its best.

[ebbearsfb1]

Lol knows money management.. but has 25 or more % in action at one time... his research yesterday was espn preview

[brahmabull117]

Lets get a winner, then lets celebrate like above !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


How much riding on it and which team is the bet.

Thanks Rock...

Check ur pm and don't disclose my picks


These azzholes don't deserve to hear my genius

[JohnnyD4916]

What's the winner tonight?

[70kgman]

obviously you figured out the secret to making a living betting sports, bet on heavy chalk!

Not only betting heavy chalk, but playing them at bookmaker who have the most juiced MLB ML's of all the books out there.

[DrStale]

Check ur pm and don't disclose my picks


These azzholes don't deserve to hear my genius

What a clown.

Goes all-in, yet claims to have bankroll management
Thinks 2 weeks of plays is a worthwhile indicator
Believes that posting plays gives him bad luck
Completely ignores sound advice given to him by those who've been around the block
Plays 20 cent baseball lines
And is cocky to boot

[JohnnyD4916]

Whats the play, I need an all-in play tonight.

[brahmabull117]

What a clown.

Goes all-in, yet claims to have bankroll management
Thinks 2 weeks of plays is a worthwhile indicator
Believes that posting plays gives him bad luck
Completely ignores sound advice given to him by those who've been around the block
Plays 20 cent baseball lines
And is cocky to boot

Just stfu and watch my daily bankroll thread phaggot


It will be $$10,000+ in no time

[ngates815]

I think you sent the PM to the wrong person.

I'm 2-8 since Wednesday...I need a winner tonight.

Thanks Rock, maybe we can go grab stone cold and slam some brewskis with him if the bet wins.

Thanks look forward to following your picks...If you can keep this run up for a couple more days, I may sign up if you decide to go tout.


BOL, and send me that pick.

[Sawyer]

-Another perfect example was the brewers last weekend against pittsburg, the line was about -240, which sounds like a lot until you do some research and realize the brewers have beaten the Pirates 35 out of 38 games in Milwaukee.... that line should have been - 3,000!!!!

I wish I was your bookie

PS: Brewers may be 35-3 in last 38 games but it doesn't mean they will go 35-3 in next 38 games..

PS 2: You like favourites and probably you're making money by betting favourites because we're on July&August period. When September comes in, you will hate these big priced favs. Laying heavy chalk is quick recipe to poorhouse.

[pavyracer]

You shouldn't be looking at lines before betting. Try this at home. Look at the matchups. Then cap the game. Then pick the winner. When you go to your book to bet it look at the line. Some days you will pick a fav and some days you will pick a dog. If you are strictly betting favs or strictly betting dogs you are going to lose at the end. The line doesn't play the game. The players, coaches and umpires determine the outcome of the game..not the fav or dog line.

[SargeantHooker]

You shouldn't be looking at lines before betting. Try this at home. Look at the matchups. Then cap the game. Then pick the winner. When you go to your book to bet it look at the line. Some days you will pick a fav and some days you will pick a dog. If you are strictly betting favs or strictly betting dogs you are going to lose at the end. The line doesn't play the game. The players, coaches and umpires determine the outcome of the game..not the fav or dog line.

[Avenger]

Books are more likely to juice the favorite side than the dog side, which makes it more difficult to find edges. They still exist, but you will have a better chance finding edges if you take dogs. Notice how many of the sharp posters on the forum only take dogs or mild favorites? Its not by coincidence.

This.

There's no value in big faves. But there is money to be made.
That's why I couldn't stand the dimwit who used to rail about "value" plays in everyone's thread. It's about picking and choosing your spots on big faves. I play faves A LOT, ask my bookie, but I consistently make a profit. You can't play faves every day and you can't parlay them (I learned this the hard way).

Anyways, Brewers were the gold mine v. Pirates. Wish I had seen this earlier but I was expecting Brewers to regress. Next time!

[CHAZ]

If its that easy start a thread and just post the big favorites you like. You'll be buried in no time risking so much to get so little in return.



And when will people learn that the bookies make there money either way. They juice both sides. If you do the math and calculate the odds to percentages its over 100%. Hints why they moves line to try and even sides out

[jjgold]

Kid is a huge square

[Sawyer]

Some days you will pick a fav and some days you will pick a dog. If you are strictly betting favs or strictly betting dogs you are going to lose at the end. The line doesn't play the game. The players, coaches and umpires determine the outcome of the game..

The line doesn't play the game but why you think you're going to lose at the end by strictly betting dogs? You can make money over long haul by strictly betting dogs.

[LovetoSpooge]

I don't know what you would consider me, I have turned $300 into $4,000 in a matter of about 16 days... and I bet on a ton of favorites

[ ] Sustainable
[x] Fat kid who got lucky.

[million2one]

I never understood bettors proclaiming that the will not lay over -140 or -150, claiming it is too risky and unprofitable.
These people have no real rationale to support such a claim and their thinking stems from a limited knowledge of the mathematical precepts that determine measured value.

Or in other words I'd be willing to lay -200 on a proposition that my work tells me has a 3 to 1 chance of winning, much more so than laying -120 when my work predicts odds of 7 to 5.

You still have to do your own capping and come up with your own odds as compared to the actual line, and it is not as simple as looking at who's pitching and who's hot, you have to look at everything, come up with what you think are the true odds and compare that with the actual line.

Good topic BTW

[Microphone]

This is probably one of the better times of the season to bet favorites as some of these teams have flat out given up already. In addition, some of these squads are playing several minor league players that are just getting a test run.

But it works both ways. Especially teams like Philly, NY and Boston who are "already in" will be resting people. Betting big favorites in spots is fine. It's great if you love two big favs in a night and can parlay them. Takes the sting out.

[a4u2fear]

Those lines will work out sometimes, if you bet every one and the % rate is correct yea, but I hardly believe someone takes them every time, so their % rate is lower than the actual outcomes of the games.

[TheLocal]

If you played only -200 favs you need to hit nearly 67% to break even. Fuge that.
GL

[lunchbawks]

Dogs pay more.. so do totals if u have a clue

[ManBearPig]

Here's what you can expect blind betting favorites by month. Notice the transition between July and August. No filters included just raw data and a rather large one...2k+ games.

Just some food for thought.

# games W-L (marg, % win) $ On $ Against MONTH


2738 1494-1244 (0.51, 54.6%) -25550 10975 4
2741 1569-1172 (0.57, 57.2%) -22508 5978 9
3069 1740-1329 (0.60, 56.7%) -15264 -503 6
2855 1670-1185 (0.75, 58.5%) -10030 -5565 8
387 214-173 (0.34, 55.3%) -3876 1833 10
22 14-8 (1.41, 63.6%) -45 -105 3
4 3-1 (1.75, 75.0%) 130 -140 11
3247 1902-1345 (0.67, 58.6%) 784 -16307 5
2643 1571-1072 (0.87, 59.4%) 2470 -15760 7

[BettingWizard]

brah, this is like somebody saying if you had followed a certain powerball pattern the last 6 months, you would be up however much money. You can never guess when a streak will end all the time

[jarvol]

Here's what you can expect blind betting favorites by month. Notice the transition between July and August. No filters included just raw data and a rather large one...2k+ games.

Just some food for thought.

# games W-L (marg, % win) $ On $ Against MONTH


2738 1494-1244 (0.51, 54.6%) -25550 10975 4
2741 1569-1172 (0.57, 57.2%) -22508 5978 9
3069 1740-1329 (0.60, 56.7%) -15264 -503 6
2855 1670-1185 (0.75, 58.5%) -10030 -5565 8
387 214-173 (0.34, 55.3%) -3876 1833 10
22 14-8 (1.41, 63.6%) -45 -105 3
4 3-1 (1.75, 75.0%) 130 -140 11
3247 1902-1345 (0.67, 58.6%) 784 -16307 5
2643 1571-1072 (0.87, 59.4%) 2470 -15760 7

Yeah but Brahma has the gift to only pick the faves that win so your stats are irrelevant.....

[BernardMadoff]

.....

[illfuuptn]

Brah, do you realize how awesome you'd be if you actually realized how huge of a luckbox you are and learned how to handicap for real? You'd have a $4,000 starting point which is awesome for someone who sucks at handicapping. Then you could actually learn how to do this and then continue to make money.

p.s. this is AWESOME! It's so hilarious that we are going to get to watch you lose $4,000 and when that happens I'll quote the shit out of this post just to ruin your life.

[brahmabull117]

I never understood bettors proclaiming that the will not lay over -140 or -150, claiming it is too risky and unprofitable. These people have no real rationale to support such a claim and their thinking stems from a limited knowledge of the mathematical precepts that determine measured value. Or in other words I'd be willing to lay -200 on a proposition that my work tells me has a 3 to 1 chance of winning, much more so than laying -120 when my work predicts odds of 7 to 5. You still have to do your own capping and come up with your own odds as compared to the actual line, and it is not as simple as looking at who's pitching and who's hot, you have to look at everything, come up with what you think are the true odds and compare that with the actual line. Good topic BTW

holy fcking sht!!!





somebody else on this site who has a clue??







I can't believe my eyes!!!

[hawley]

holy fcking sht!!!




somebody else on this site who has a clue??



I can't believe my eyes!!!

You read the part where he said you still need to do your own capping?

Well reading the ESPN preview is not capping a game

[brahmabull117]

You read the part where he said you still need to do your own capping? Well reading the ESPN preview is not capping a game

I have forgotten more about baseball in the last year than you will ever know in your lifetime phaggot